Monday Catch-Up

I was mostly off the grid this weekend celebrating an early Thanksgiving in my native Wisconsin. A few items of note:

The yard signs appear to be down in Senate 18 but on the drive home we saw a large Cindy Golding billboard. Golding is still talking about a run next year in new Senate 48, but the other two contenders aren't stepping aside.

Craig Robinson looks at the post-Battle of Marion Senate GOP leadership fight. In my opinion Bill DIx emerges as a bigger loser than even McKinley, and Dix-faction senators are openly calling Jerry Behn's election more of the same. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Also noted in Robinson's piece:

Republicans also elected a new minority whip. Senator Brad Zaun was selected to replace Senator Steve Kettering, who, like McKinley, stepped down and is also not seeking re-election in 2012.

First I'd heard of that. Kettering was fairly lucky in redistricting; Senate District 6 keeps four whole counties in a five-plus county seat. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact, and the eastern Crawford shunk is similar. The district adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge (2187 in April).

Also at TheIowaRepublican, Kevin Hall chides Gingrich:

Newt plans on opening offices in Des Moines and Iowa City (???) soon … A GOP campaign office in Iowa City makes about as much sense as Christie Vilsack opening a headquarters in Sioux Center. Or thinking she can beat Steve King.

Au contraire, my conservative colleague. The mistake with an Iowa City HQ isn't Iowa City per se. Johnson is one of the top 10 GOP counties in the state based on sheer number of registrations and voters, which is how Republicans count their caucus votes. (Democratic caucus results end up weighting the counties by size and party strength based on general election results.) Johnson is lousy for the GOP in terms of percentage, but even 20% of registration in a big metro county is quite a few.

But the mistake in an Iowa City effort is the timing. A January 3 date in a campus county is deadly. I'd have put the eastern Iowa office in the QC or Cedar Rapids. But then, it's not my job to give Newt advice.

District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12

District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12

Senate District 6

Registration: D 11,206, R 13,393, N 16,263, total 40,887, R+ 2187
Incumbent: Steve Kettering, R-Lake View

Kettering got screwed last redistricting, yet ended up getting a promotion. He was in the House, got paired up with Rod Roberts, and drew the short straw, not running in 2002. But serendipitously for him, mid-term state senator Steve King emerged as the congressional nominee in that year's epic four-way primary and convention battle. Kettering won the January 2003 special for King's seat and barely missed a day of session. Elections have been uneventful since.

Redistricting is much kinder to Kettering this time, as he may have the least-changed rural district in the state. Kettering keeps almost all his old territory. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact and stay in the district, and he also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. He adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge.

The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.

House District 11

Registration: D 4650, R 7332, N 7700, total 19,690, R+ 2682
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake

Worthan was another special election winner, but the most interesting part of that was the reason. Mary Lou Freeman, who was running for re-election unopposed, died after the withdrawal deadline. (Technically she was not re-elected posthumously; the contest was simply not counted.) Worthan won the special, just a month after the 2006 general election. He won with 66% in 2008 and 74% last year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less.

House District 12

Registration: D 6556, R 6061, N 8563, total 21197, D+ 495
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning

One of the very few bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Rod Roberts gave up the Carroll-based seat to run for governor, and Republicans nominated their own Sharron Angle, Daniel Dirkx (dubbed "the worst candidate ever" by desmoinesdem). This was too much even for the tea party mood of the cycle. Leading Republicans in Carroll endorsed the late starting Democrat, Dan Muhlbauer (the original nominee dropped out), who won a solid 1900 vote win for the only Democratic gain of the cycle. Muhlbauer, a former county supervisor whose father preceded him in the legislature, has carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few hign profile votes like nuclear power and marriage equality.

The line changes turn a 195 Republican registration edge into a 495 voter advantage to the Democrats. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County.


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