Some Dude For Governor

I have nothing constructive to add to the government shutdown discussion. I haven't seen so much traffic on Twitter since the end of Republican primary debate season.

Instead, in the kind of outside the Beltway minutia that only a state-level blogger can give you, we have, via the Story County Dems, an actual Some Dude story.

Yeah, I know, the last time I called anyone a Some Dude I had to eat my words. But somehow, I think this is safe. Paul Dahl of Webster City is launching an announcement tour for governor - governor? - on Friday:

October 4

8 a.m.
Sioux City Public Library (outside)
529 Pierce Street

10 a.m.
Council Bluffs Public Library (outside)
400 Willow Avenue

1 p.m.
Central Library, Des Moines Public Library (outside)
1000 Grand Avenue

2:30 p.m.
Parks Library, Iowa State University, Ames (outside)
Corner of Osborn Drive and Morrill Road)

5:00 p.m.
Mason City Public Library (outside)
225 2nd Street SE

7:30 p.m.
Rod Library, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls (outside)
1227 West 27th Street

October 5

8 a.m.
Local 838, UAW Hall, Waterloo (inside or outside to be determined)
2615 Washington Street

10 a.m.
Downtown Library, Cedar Rapids Public Library (outside)
450 Fifth Avenue SE

12 noon
Main Library, The University of Iowa Libraries, Iowa City (outside)
125 West Washington Street

2 p.m.
Burlington Public Library (outside)
210 Court Street

4:30 p.m.
Davenport Public Library (outside)
321 North Main Street

6:30 p.m.
Dubuque Carnegie-Stout Public Library (outside)
360 West 11th Street

Note that 1) The Iowa City stop is during the Hawkeye football game and 2) the common theme of "outside the library."

Outside the library is, it turns out, very apt. Two years ago Dahl was hired and in just two months fired as Webster City's library director for numerous yet unspecified complaints from the public. Since then he's stayed in Webster City in a... wide variety of jobs, according to his resume, most recently as a bus driver. A bus driver with two masters degrees. I thought that only happened in Iowa City. Still, a step up from his previous stop at Dollar General.

Closest I can find to a platform is "The Significant Seven Issues for Iowa":

1) Agricultural Revitalization (Biotic Friendly Practices)
2) Renewable Energy Commitment
3) Tax Reform
4) Greater Higher Education Investment and Preschool - Grade 12 School Support
5) Mass Transit Infrastructure Development
6) Improvements in Health Care and Long Term Care Insurance Options
7) Criminal Justice Reforms

All interesting in their own right, but unconventionally presented. And nothing wrong with bus drivers. Yet the overall impression is of That One Guy who talks waaaay too long at the platform committee meeting.

This is the second campaign for Dahl, 49. In 1994 he won 5% in the Democratic primary in the old 5th CD. After that he had a fairly stable career in the library sciences in Iowa and Minnesota, before returning to Iowa for that ill-fated Webster City job.

Compared to this, Bob Krause's long ago legislative service is a Bidenesque Ears Of Experience. But as Sal Mohamed proved, anyone smart enough to get nomination papers in the caucus packet is likely to make the ballot, and just the name on the ballot is good for at least 1 percent.

Hatch Alternative Emerges!

So that poll this morning looked a little rough for Jack Hatch. Here's the alternative:

My name is Mark McDonald and I am the dark horse making a run for Governor in 2014.

By "dark horse" we mean Some Dude. McDonald's prior race was a 1996 primary loss for Polk County supervisor , which makes Bob Krause's three terms in the legislature four decades ago loom a lot larger.

The website looks like it may have been designed for the 1996 campaign, though at least it's not as garish as some early net era sites were. The overall mood is endearing sincerity, though there's unintentional humor in the biography:

In 1954 my father moved our family to Fort Worth, Tx so he could go to seminary at TCU. There was I born. After six months the trip was aborted. 

Huh? In any case, there's still room in the primary field, but the Sal Mohamed niche now seems to be filled.

As for the Iowa Poll, all it really tells us a year and a half out is that Jack Hatch has a whole lot of name ID work left to do.

Numbers That Mean Less Than You Think

Iowa Republicans are spending the evening high-fiving one another over voter registration statistics. They've been doing this every month lately, as the Democratic lead that peaked after the 2008 caucuses dwindled.

The celebrating is heartier than usual because the lines have crossed and yes, there are now more registered Rs than Ds in the state. New Chair AJ Spiker trumpets:

“The failed policies of the Obama presidency and the Obama Democrats have opened the eyes of many voters to the benefits of the Republican Party ideals of lower taxes, less government intrusion, and the protection of individual liberty. More than 1 in 10 Democrats have fled the Iowa Democrat Party since Barack Obama was elected President, and today for the first time in years, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats."

So that's the explanation Spiker imagines: "Gee, I hate Obamacare so much that I'm making a special trip down to my county courthouse to change parties."

Well, that ain't how it works in the real world. People don't change affiliation to Make A Statement. Sure, it's been known to occur. But what usually happens is they change affiliation when they're required to in order to participate in a specific contest. Changing party is not like tattoo removal surgery; it's more like "I want a Republican ballot today."

The Register inadvertently notes this:

On Aug. 1, 2006, there were 606,168 active registered Democrats statewide and 590,165 Republicans. That was the first time Democrats had been ahead since 1994...

1994. Sure, that was a huge GOP year. But more important to party registration numbers was the epic Republican governor primary between Terry Branstad and Fred Grandy, which set turnout records Branstad himself said would never be broken. In Johnson County, GOP registration leaped four percentage points in one day, and it took about six years, until the 2000 presidential election, to gradually return to its pre-`94 levels.

That's because a lot of those people who intend to be a Party Member For A Day don't follow through until there's some other compelling reason to change. The Register continues:

The year 2006 was when the Democrats took control of the Iowa Senate and Iowa House, and Democrat Chet Culver cruised to victory in the governor’s race.

More significant than the general election zeitgeist of 2006: Democrats had a hot primary for governor between Chet Culver, Mike Blouin and Ed Fallon. Oh, and Sal Mohamed. But on the GOP side, Jim Nussle had engineered a leveraged buyout of primary opponent Bob Vander Plaats by making him the running mate. So the casual voters interested in influencing a contest became registered Democrats.

Iowa's Democratic registration numbers in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 caucuses were artificially, unsustainably high. And since that date the Republicans have had two big contests to get people to switch over, while Democrats have had none.

The sharpest shift in registration came in the high turnout, bitter aftermath 2010 Republican primary for governor. After four terms in office, Branstad was barely able to get half the vote, and Bob Vander Plaats never did endorse him. A much better drama than Roxanne Conlin vs. a couple also rans in a yawner Democratic senate primary.

The intra-party battle of June, not the GOP victory of November, meant more to expanding Republican rolls on paper. In a sense, bragging about your registration gains is bragging about how divided you are. The best thing for Democratic registration stats would have been a primary challenger to Chet Culver.

The 2012 Republican caucuses, with mass party-switching for Ron Paul and a dead heat result, also spiked GOP registrations compared to the Democrats, who had an "organizing opportunity" that attracted few but the faithful.

In between these big primary and caucus spikes, the normal statistical trend is toward dis-affiliation or non-affiliation, as new voters not required to choose a party to participate in a specific race get registered and as those as those Party Members for a day get around to it. Since Democrats were at an all-time high, they've had more of those casual registrants to lose.

The Register's Jennifer Jacobs makes the most valid point, tweeting: Each Iowa political group – Ds, Rs, independents - lost numbers between last month & this month, records show. Rs just loss fewer than Ds."

That's because a lot of counties mailed new voter cards to all registered voters, listing their new post-redistricting precincts and legislative districts. Some of those cards get returned to auditors as undeliverable -- which means the voter gets put on an "inactive" status, which is a first step in the cancellation process. Democrats tend to be younger, tend to be more mobile, so they get more inactivations. Independents, even more so. Demographically, Republicans tend to be more situated -- and of course a lot of them had just freshened up their registration addresses on caucus night.

None of this is to deny Republicans their moment of celebration or to say registration statistics are completely meaningless. But they don't mean as much over a short period of time as Iowa Republicans are pretending they do. You need to look back over longer time frames, like decades, so the statistical spikes of a specific primary or caucus even out. Iowa hasn't all of a sudden "turned Red" as Spiker headlines his release. We're as purple as we were last month and as purple as we were in 2000 and 2004.

Thursday March 18 Candidate Filing

King, Conlin, Roberts File Thursday

A statewide Democratic primary is for real as Roxanne Conlin turns in the papers for the US Senate. Iowa Democrats haven't had a US Senate primary since 1992, and there hasn't been a serious Democratic Senate primary since at least the 1960s. (Will we see Tom Fiegen or the indefatigable Sal Mohamed file tomorrow?)

Steve King files for a fifth term in the 5th District, and picks up another opponent as Matt Campbell joins Mike Denklau on the Democratic primary ballot.

And there's now no turning back for Carroll's Rod Roberts, as the legislator files for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. He's the third and final candidate of what was once a seven-way race.

(The Democratic nomination appears set, though; Jonathan Narcisse tells the Reg that he won't file against Chet Culver in the primary and will proceed straight to the general as an independent. He says he had the signatures for the primary... but wouldn't show Kathie Obradovich.)

The 3rd CD primary field gets even bigger as Pat Bertrouche and Mark Rees are the fifth and sixth candidates in. And in the 1st CD, Will Johnson of Dubuque becomes the fourth candidate. There's also four Republicans in the 2nd District; conventions, anyone?

Moving down the statewide ballot, former Steve King aide Brenna Findley will challenge longtime Democratic attorney general Tom Miller, who had no opponent at all in 2006. And a release from Democratic Secretary of Agriculture candidate Francis Thicke says he's filing Friday at 9 A.M.

Two candidates file in open Sioux City Senate District 27. Republican Bill Anderson hopes to hold Ron Weick's seat for the party; Democrat Marty Pottebaum wants to make this a Democratic gain. Weick was unopposed in 2006.

Those nonpartisan offices as team benches again: Waterloo City Council member Ron Welper is the Republican challenger to Sen. Bill Dotzler (D-Waterloo). Dotzler was a 70% winner in Senate District 11 four years ago.

Democrats will see a primary in Senate District 13, where Clinton Democrat Roger Stewart is retiring. Ed O'Neill had a head start but Tod Bowman of Maquoketa will make it a contest. The winner is likely to face basketball coach Andrew Naeve.

Dennis Black (D-Grinnell) files for another term in Senate 21 and will face the winner of a GOP primary between Wes Enos and Joe Pirillo.

Ankeny Republican incumbent Larry Noble won a close-fought open-seat District 35 race four years ago, when Jeff Lamberti left to run for Congress.

Ames attorney Timothy Gartin, a Republican, will challenge Democratic incumbent Herman Quirmbach in Senate District 23. Quirmbach was a 57% winner in 2006.

Two incumbents both filed and got something they didn't see in 2006: opponents. In Davenport's Senate District 43, Democratic Sen. Joe Seng faces Republican Mark Holloway. Over in the southwest corner, Republican Sen. Hubert Houser will face Democrat Scott Schondelmeyer.

Rick Marlar is the third Republican to file in Senate District 45, where former legislator Sandy Greiner is heavily favored to win the primary and face Fairfield freshman Democrat Becky Schmitz.

Des Moines Democratic incumbents Matt McCoy (District 31) and Jack Hatch (33) both filed. McCoy won handily in 2006 and Hatch was unopposed.

In the House, the big news was a non-filing as Davenport Democrat Elesha Gayman steps down after two terms.

Primaries on both side in House District 21: former Waterloo mayor John Rooff filed on the GOP side where he'll face Lyn Tackett. On the Democratic side, Anesa Kajtazovic is challenging incumbent Kerry Burt, who let's say has had a difficult first term.

In what appears to be the only primary in either party among Sioux City's five open seat races (says Bret Hayworth), Republican Cate Bryan filed in House District 2. 2008 near-winner Rick Bertrand is still on the list but expected to switch to the Senate race, and Ryan Beardshear is announced in the House 2 race. Still with me? The winner will see Democrat Chris Hall in November. (How would more contested primaries have rippled into the governor's race, and maybe helped Sioux City's Bob Vander Plaats?)

Algona Democrat Susan Bangert hopes to hold House District 8, where conservaDem Dolores Mertz is retiring after two decades. Bangert will face the winner of a contentious Republican primary between tea party favorite Tom Shaw (who originally announced as an independent) and 2008 nominee Stephen Richards, who lost to Mertz by just 43 votes.

Mason City insurance agent Brian Randall is hoping to take back House District 13 for the Republicans. Democrat Sharon Steckman picked up the seat in 2008 when Republican Bill Schickel retired.

Another Republican trying to take back a seat from a freshman Democrat is former Davenport city council member Carla Batchelor in House District 81. Democrat Phyllis Thede knocked off Jamie (the younger) Van Fossen in 2008.

Current Davenport council member Ray Ambrose, also a Republican, is challenging Rep. Cindy Winckler (D-Davenport) in House 86. Winckler was about a 70% winner in 2008.

There's a primary in House District 42; unfortunately it's on the Republican side. Six Packer Geri Huser, who beat a union-backed primary challenge in 2008 then was uncontested in the fall, filed again. Kim Pearson of Pleasant Hill joins Altoona's Aaron Warner in the GOP primary.

In Ames, Republican businessman Chad Steenhoek filed in House District 46 against incumbent Lisa Heddens (who faced only Libertarian opposition in 2008).

Democratic student Nathan Clubb of Sigourney is challinging GOP incumbent Betty DeBoef in House District 76.

Dubuque Republican Hank Linden is challenging first term Rep. Charles Isenhart, who won the open seat easily in the 2008 general when Pam Jochum moved to the Senate.

Some GOP challengers in Des Moines: Former Polk County GOP chair Darlene Blake is challenging Democratic incumbent Jo Oldson in House District 61. And Dan Kennedy is opposing Democratic Rep. Janet Petersen in District 64. Both Democrats won two to one 2008 victories.

Senate Candidates Krause, Fiegen Work Steak Fry Crowd

Senate Candidates Krause, Fiegen Work Steak Fry

"He's gonna get the election of his life next year," State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald said of Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. Fitzgerald got a big whoop from the crowd at Sunday's Tom Harkin steak fry.

The two main Democrats hoping to take on Grassley were also on hand, working the edges of the crowd hoping to gain an edge with the party faithful.

Former legislators Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause are hoping to give Grassley his first tough race since he was a challenger in 1980. But first they need to get past each other.


Bob Krause talks with a reporter before Sunday's Harkin Steak Fry.

Krause and Fiegen, neither of whom spoke from the podium, didn't have a negative word for each other Sunday, preferring to keep the focus on Grassley.

"Philosophically, we're very close," Krause said of Fiegen. "In terms of style, I'm a fairly aggressive campaigner."

"Every day is a gift," Fiegen said of Grassley. "Every town hall brought out a quote or an event and normal Iowans are saying, 'I'm embarrassed to be an Iowan, someone has to retire this guy.'"

"Grassley's polls keep going down, ka-thunk, ka-thunk, ka-thunk," said Krause. "He's getting close to 50 percent," a mark that generally is interpreted as trouble for an incumbent.

But a phantom hovers over the Senate primary: if Grassley's numbers dip low enough, someone better known than Krause or Fiegen may jump into the race.

"It's getting later," said Krause. "Labor Day is traditionally a benchmark. There's going to be a point where people will give the guys who were in there first some credit."

"I hear the rumors and there isn't anyone who scares me," said Fiegen. "I expect someone else to get in, but I can compete. It's just a question of organization and money."


Senate candidate Tom Fiegen greets Democrats following the steak fry.

"You have to make the case that Chuck Grassley needs to be retired to start," said Fiegen. "Next thing is to talk about your goals as a senator and with our Fiegenomics program we've done that."

Fiegen has knocked off a five term senator before--former Iowa Senate GOP leader Jack Rife in 2000. But redistricting truncated Fiegen's term. He lost a two-incumbent race in 2002 and a comeback attempt in 2004.

Krause's time in the legislature was in the 1970s, and he lost a bid for state treasurer in 1978.

Perennial candidate Sal Mohamed is also running. Having failed in his bids for Congress, governor and teh presidency (despite his constitutional ineligibility) with his patented sandwich board campaigning, Sal is trying to hit oh-fer the cycle with the Senate.

Senate looks like friends and neighbors

Senate looks like friends and neighbors rather than Braley

So the Politico thinks Bruce Braley might jump into the Senate race. Well, no guts no glory, but I'm not convinced. Like I keep saying, all his moves early this year -- his big role in Henry Waxman's overthrow of John Dingell at Energy and Commerce, his subsequent appointment to that same committee, and his Populist Caucus -- are Beltway moves, not home front moves, which tells me The Alliteratively Named One is gearing up for a long House career.

Iowa Republican takes that Register puzzle piece of high name ID plus fundraising ability plus 75 percent likely and is fretting about Mike Blouin instead.

Anyone thought about Vilsack? Not Tom: Christie.


But let's assume the field stays where it is: Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen, with perennial Sal Mohamed thrown in for good measure. How does that shake out?

There aren't a lot of benchmarks for Democratic Senate primaries in Iowa. The last one was in 1992. Jean Lloyd-Jones had a rough rollout that spring. Another legislator had an ethics issue and Jean was doing duty as Ethics Committee chair. In a low-information low-turnout primary all anyone remembered was "Jean Lloyd Jones" and "ethics" in the same sentence, and 40 percent voted for The Other One.

That would be Rosanne Freeburg, who was one of the craziest candidates in recorded memory. No one is accusing either Krause or Fiegen of that. Sal, maybe, but believe me, Sal's a model of decorum compared to Grandma Goofy. I can't remember if Freeburg endorsed Perot before the primary or after, but she ran as an independent and, in an Everyone But Grassley debate, sang "God Bless America" in the place her closing statement should have gone. (That was a running joke between me and one of my Republican friends for years, and is an object lesson in the futility of the empty chair debate scenario.)

So that's not a good example. The better antecedent may be the 1998 governor's primary. Neither Mark McCormick or Tom Vilsack were especially well-known at the time, and it shook out as a friends and neighbors contest. In places where one of the two was well-known, there were landslides. McCormick won big in Carroll and Ames, and narrowly in Polk County, but Vilsack rang up Kim Jong Il size landslides in his Senate district for a slim win.

So who has friends and neighbors where? Krause is based out of Fairfield now, but his legislative district was in north central Iowa. He ran statewide for treasurer, but that was 31 years ago. Blouin took almost as long of a break between campaigns (1978 to 2006) and came in a close second in a three and a half way race. But two terms in Congress and high profile jobs after is more residual name ID than an unsuccessful down-ballot run.

Fiegen is from Cedar County and practices law out of Cedar Rapids. The district where he won in 2000 ran east into Clinton and Scott counties and north into Jones. That's where he knocked off Senator For Life Jack Rife. The district he lost in 2002 (paired with Richard Drake in redistricting) and 2004 (when Drake stepped down and Jim Hahn went from House to Senate) ran south to Muscatine and just barely nicked Johnson. So basically everything between Iowa City-Cedar Rapids to the west and the Quad Cities to the east, and more recent service and candidacy.

Another factor will be competing contests. With no primary challenges to the governor or congressional delegation on the horizon (but remember Ed Fallon started late against Boswell) and Dems still seeking candidates against Latham and King, it looks like the action will jump from Senate down to courthouse. And the Republicans will be staying in their own primary for once to vote for governor. A smart candidate will spend time in places that have high turnout local primaries. So we'll see you here in Johnson County--not a bad drive for either Krause or Fiegen.

One caveat: The 1992 and 1998 races I cite were in the era when the internet was a mere novelty in politics. We had some email lists as far back as 1993 around here but that was cutting edge. Fiegen and Krause are both on the social networks, and one of them could catch on.

Primaries are good things. Obama was a better general election candidate for having faced Hillary. And either Fiegen or Krause will earn some name ID out of a spring campaign. They've already benefited from the earliest start against Grassley in at least 20 years.

Chuck Grassley has shown his true colors more in the last few weeks than he has in the last couple decades. The run against Grassley always used to be the benchmark test for the straight ticket D vote, but his health care stunts have given whatever opponent he gets a bit higher ground to start from.

Iowa Republicans Face Possible Convention

The Convention Scenario

It's now three Iowa Republicans officially in the governor's race, with newcomer Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids joining the Sioux City Two, Christopher Rants and Bob Vander Plaats. Mentioners are mentioning several others including Rod Roberts, Jerry Behn, Paul McKinley and even blast from the past Terry Branstad. (Seriously.)

It's unlikely all of these guys will get in, or even stay in. Fong's rollout is being dogged by the same "donated to Democrats" issue that was probably critical in Peter Teahen's narrow (120 votes) loss to Mariannette Miller-Meeks last year. But it's clear that we're not going to see a one on one Vander Plaats vs. Not Vander Plaats race. Maybe one candidate consolidates support and becomes the consensus Anyone But, but the differing geographic bases of the potential contenders makes that less likely.

The big field means the Iowa GOP could be faced with a post-primary nominating convention next summer if no one gets to the 35 percent required by state law to win the nomination outright.

The convention scenario was in Ed Fallon's plans on the Democratic side in 2006, as he urged supporters to go to the sparsely attended off-cycle caucuses and split into gubernatorial preference groups. At the time it looked like a four-way race, five if you count Sal Mohamed. But Chet Culver annexed rival Patty Judge as a running mate, which made the brokered nomination less likely. (Still, Culver only won the primary with 39 percent.)

But even in a three-way race a convention is possible, and indeed almost happened to the Republicans in 2002:

Gross	71,478	35.88%
Sukup	64,490	32.37%
Vander Plaats	63,077	31.66%

1,746 votes less and Gross would have been under 35 percent.

The convention scenario, of course, did happen that same year in the 5th congressional district, where the four candidates all landed between 21 and 31 percent in the primary. Steve King went into that convention with two big advantages. He had the most votes in the primary (which may have been the last time Steve King could claim the moral high ground) and he was the most conservative candidate. In a setting where the core of the core of the activists control the process, ideological intensity matters, and with the safe district, Republicans weren't constrained by worries about winning in the fall.

Thus a convention scenario is favorable to Vander Plaats. Looking at the 2002 results he has a base close to, but just short of, 35 percent, and the question is how much room does he have to expand on that. (He also, unlike 2002, has to share his regional base with Rants.) 31 percent was last place in a three way race, but might be the top of a five candidate field.

BVP also seems like the most likely candidate to get his people to an obscure January caucus with no presidential race at stake. At least no IMMEDIATE presidential race; with BVP and Mike Huckabee on board with each other, this could become a presidential proxy war.

The 2006 Democratic caucus-convention period was a breakthrough for the Iowa Democratic blogosphere, the first big story we collectively covered in detail beyond the traditional media. The Republican caucuses will be harder to track because Republicans don't break into preference groups. They just elect their delegates to the next level, which means tracking gubernatorial preferences will be an intense exercise in inside baseball and Republican Kremlinology. All sorts of other agendas will be mixed in; with the low turnout, you'll have a disproportionate number of people who care more about the platform or who gets to be county chair than they care about governor. (Same thing's true on our side.)

It should be good theater, but in the end might not be good democracy or good for the Republicans. (Not that I'm all of a sudden in charge of what's good for Republicans.) They could easily see their least electable candidate nominated by a low-turnout convention process, even though 70 percent or more of the primary voters favored someone else or ANYone else. This is the kind of scenario that instant runoff voting was born to address.

Coming up: how local factors in one county (mine) can ripple through the race.

Washington Post plugs State-level blogs

Washington Post plugs State-level blogs

A few weeks back the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza polled readers on their favorite state-level political blogs. Cillizza mentioned that the early primary states didn't have as many state blogs, and Iowans responded with the names we all know.

Cillizza followed up today with a 50-state blogroll. The four Iowa sites (about average for a state our size) he lists?

The new Republican one-stop big box blog, The Iowa Republican, where Krusty and others have now aggregated. In a similar vein we have The Bean Walker, which Cilizza doubly notes as one of a group of Drudge-themed sites. There's also my former professional home, Iowa Independent...

And freakin' me?!? (For those of you getting here from The Fix, I'm a one-man amateur show working around a day job and a family.)

All I can figure is this thing must have been spammed Ron Paul style by Linux geeks and Packer fans. Or perhaps it's the beret. Could just be my sheer longevity; I think Poor Richard's Almanack was still publishing when I started this thing (December `02).

A lot of good sites were left off, including some of the very people who dropped my name. To make amends--or, more likely, alienate anyone I leave out--here's the places I most often click through to:

On the right, more or less, a lot has changed since the near-simultaneous launches of Iowa Republican and Bean Walker. But Grant Young at Questions Comments Insults and Iowas Newz Liter are sort of like Pat Buchanan: always interesting perspectives, not always party line, and able to laugh at themselves. And Coralville Courier (taking its name from a long-ago print paper) is worth monitoring, the same way one monitors broadcasts from behind enemy lines.

On the left, Bleeding Heartland and Century of the Common Iowan have solid analysis, while Blog for Iowa is good on the policy and action steps. And Douglas Burns' Iowa Political Alert doesn't get the attention it deserves, maybe because Doug is western Iowa based. And while Essential Estrogen's Lynda Waddington has Iowa Independent ties (like I used to), she also has interesting stuff she doesn't cross-post, along with a Republican partner in crime.

Speaking of bipartisanship, God, Politics and Rock 'n' Roll is the beeeeest of both worlds (and yes, they'll keep you up to date on Hannah Montana). And Tara and Jeff don't define "bipartisanship" as "doing whatever the Republicans want" the way Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor do.

And shed a tear for two defunct blogs, State 29 and the short-lived Patriot Skullface. They were big players back when the Iowa political blogosphere attained critical mass. I can place the exact moment: March 2006, when we were frantically posting county convention updates on the Blouin-Culver-Fallon delegate counts. (I don't think Sal Mohamed got any delegates, though I hear he's looking at the US Senate now, hot off that presidential race.)

If I left you off, slap my face in the comments and give yourself a plug.

Primaries by The Percentages

Primaries by The Percentages

If you're watching the primary returns next Tuesday night, you may want to keep a calculator handy. Iowa law requires a candidate to win 35 percent of the vote to earn a nomination, but the percentages that get reported aren't always the ones that matter.

If no candidate gets 35 percent, the party has to hold a convention to choose a nominee, and that's a realistic possibility in one Iowa congressional race.

The prospect of a convention was a hot topic in Democratic circles in early 2006, and Ed Fallon's gubernatorial campaign made a big effort to elect delegates at precinct caucuses and county conventions. But the convention talk cooled after Patty Judge left the race to form a ticket with eventual nominee Chet Culver, who won a four-way race (don't forget Sal Mohamed) with 39.1 percent.

Even in a three-way race, a convention is a possibility if the math breaks just right. The Republicans came within one percent of a statewide convention for governor in 2002, when the three candidates all bunched up in the 30s; nominee Doug Gross emerged as the nominee with only 35.6 percent.

That same year, Republicans actually went to a convention for the 5th Congressional District. Four strong candidates competed in the brand-new, solidly Republican district, and they landed between 21 and 31 percent each. Steve King landed at the top of that heap, and then turned that lead into a convention win. The rest is history.

Who attends a convention depends on what level of office is involved. For legislative seats, it's county central committee members, with votes weighted by the size and party strength of each precinct. County offices are nominated by a county convention, made up of the precinct delegates elected at the Jan. 3 caucuses. Congressional district and state conventions are made up of delegates elected at the March county conventions.

The likeliest prospect for a convention is the Democratic race in the 4th Congressional District, with four candidates seeking the nomination. Republicans have two major three-candidate races: the U.S. Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District.

Prospects also exist for conventions in local contests. The definition of percentage is less than straightforward in elections for more than one seat, such as at-large county supervisor contests. To determine the 35 percent threshold in these races, the Code of Iowa specifies a "percentage of votes" method. To get at this number add up all the votes cast for all the candidates, including write-ins. Then divide it by the number of seats available.

For example, look at the 2004 Democratic supervisor race in Johnson County. Eight candidates were running for three seats, and a total of 20,905 votes were cast. Divide that by three, and the base lien for calculating percentage is 6,969.

Johnson County Supervisors, 2004 Democratic Primary	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Terrence Neuzil	5,060	72.6%	54.4%	24.2%
Pat Harney	4,627	66.4%	49.7%	22.1%
Rod Sullivan	3,187	45.7%	34.3%	15.2%
Mike O'Donnell	3,060	43.9%	32.9%	14.6%
Rick Dvorak	1,998	28.7%	21.5%	9.6%
John Schneider	1,339	19.2%	14.4%	6.4%
Julie Gilmere	1,134	16.3%	12.2%	5.4%
James Knapp	446	6.4%	4.8%	2.1%
write in	54	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

This formula does not factor in the common dynamic of under-voting or "bullet voting," in which supporters of one candidate don't use all their votes in a vote for two or vote for three race. Instead, bullet voters vote only for their favorite candidate. You can't use both, or all three, of your votes on that candidate, but you don't have to use all of your votes. It's a common campaign tactic, but one that's usually done sotto voce so as not to alienate supporters of other candidates. If you want to crunch some math, add up the total votes cast for all candidates plus write-ins, then divide it by the number of voters. This will give you a "votes per candidate" number, illustrating how many people cast some sort of bullet vote. In our 2004 sample race, the 20,905 votes were cast by 9,305 voters, meaning the average voter only cast 2.25 votes for supervisor out of a possible three.

Calculating percentage of voters, by dividing the candidate's vote by the total number of voters, produces a lower percentage but provides a more reliable assessment of how many people supported a candidate. Another common, misleading method in a vote for two or three race is to add up all the votes, and divide each candidate's vote by the grand total. This is often seen on local TV, and produces seeming paradoxes like candidates winning with 17 percent.

Another seeming paradox happens in a race where four candidates are competing for three seats. It's possible for a candidate to win support from a majority of voters, yet finish in last place, as in this 2001 Coralville contest. Over half of the voters supported Bream, yet he drew the least support and lost.

Coralville City Council, 2001	votes	percentage of votes	percentage of voters	TV Percentage
Henry Herwig	744	80.0%	70.4%	26.7%
Dave Jacoby	732	78.7%	69.3%	26.2%
Tom Gill	682	73.3%	64.5%	24.5%
Bob Bream	614	66.0%	58.1%	22.0%
write in	17	1.8%	1.6%	0.6%

Leapfrog Front Quiet But Active

Leapfrog Front Quiet But Active

The caucus and primary date battle seems to have settled down since Iowa Democrats announced their Jan. 3 date, but there's still action on the leapfrog front.

The big item yet to be determined is the New Hampshire primary date. Friday marked the end of filing for the primary, and that means Secretary of State Bill Gardner's self-imposed window for announcing the date is now open.

A total of 44 candidates filed in New Hampshire. The state traditionally has the longest list of names of any primary state. Iowa, with no names on pre-printed ballots to stamp with your ego, rarely sees these perennial candidates, but New Hampshire gets them every four years. The list includes Vermin Supreme, R-Mass., Ole Savior, D-Minn., Tom Tancredo, Know Nothing-Colo., and Alan Keyes, who this year lists his address as Maryland.

One of the lesser-known names on the ballot is familiar to Iowans: Sal Mohamed, who's made two tries for Congress and one for governor with his campaign tactic of sandwich-board signs at high traffic intersections. Sal, as a naturalized citizen, is constitutionally ineligible for the Presidency, but that's not stopping him.

Florida's ballot has also been announced, but it's less colorful. In Florida, party officers name the candidates, allowing them to exclude such past problematic people as David Duke and Lyndon LaRouche. Floridians will see the eight debating Democrats on their no-delegate ballot, while the GOP side will include Keyes with the more familiar candidates.

The bigger item on the Florida side is Nelson v. Dean, Sen. Bill Nelson's lawsuit against the Democratic National Committee over the delegate deletion. That's set for a Dec.5 hearing U.S. District Court in Tallahassee.

Up in Michigan, a bill to abolish the primary, perhaps as a precursor to a caucus on New Hampshire Primary Day, has not made progress this week.

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Not leapfrog related, but worth sharing for fun:

Nebraska Rep. Adrian Smith, a Club For Growth baby in probably the most GOP district in the nation, has blocked access to his official Congressional web site from any links coming from Blogger. Check it out -- the comments from the Blogspot techie are priceless.

Marc Arbinder says Dennis was having more fun with the UFOs the other night:

"Well, what I really wanted to say at the debate, was, 'Yes, Tim, I have seen UFOs, and an alien said to be, 'Take me to your leader.' And I told him, well, I don't think our leader is going to want to meet with an illegal alien."

Sal for President

Sal for President Update

With Vilsack's departure, Sal Mohamed is now the only Iowan left in the presidential race. Bret Hayworth at the Sioux City Journal reports that, while Sal was not invited to tonight's Democratic presidential debate, he's not letting his constitutional ineligibility deter him and he will be having a meeting at 7 tonight in Sioux City...

Tom Miller, Mike Fitzgerald... Barack Obama

Tom Miller, Mike Fitzgerald... Barack Obama

From the inbox:

U.S. Senator Barack Obama's campaign today announced that Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald have endorsed Barack Obama for President...

No wonder they weren't on that Vilsack list yesterday... that's a big zing to the former guv: the two longest serving statewide elected officials, so popular they ran unopposed last year.

I'm remembering Tom Miller was a Lieberman guy in `03. I considered that myself since my caucus support is the kiss of death (Hart, Jackson, Harkin, Bradley, Dean... my only caucus for a nominee was the `96 Clinton re-elect) and I wanted to be sure Joementum would lose. But luckily he didn't need my help.

Hey, Drew, do you have the inside dish here?

Tangent: As an Iowan I hate to say it, but some of the second-tier folks would be best advised to adopt a Screw Iowa strategy rather than try to break through the Three Rock Stars and the Home Town Boy. The true second tier, Vilsack included, each has a needle that could in theory be threaded:

Bill Richardson needs to spend every free moment in Vegas (he may already be doing that)

New Hampshire is a short hop for Chris Dodd

Wes Clark, if he gets in, should focus on vet-heavy South Carolina.

At this point it should be noted that the Screw Iowa Strategy (Gore 88, McCain 00) has never worked.

The articulate Joe Biden has no viable options, so from this day on I include him in the third tier with Dennis Kookcinich, Sal Mohamed and Mike Gravel (it's pronounced graVEL and not like rocks).

TWO Iowa Dems are Running for President

TWO Iowa Dems are Running for President



Lest we forget. Of course, one is constitutionally ineligible, as a naturalized citizen. Sal Mohamed For President: coming soon to a street corner near you.

2006 In Review

2006 In Review

New Year's Eve is also my blog-i-versary so I'm just feeling retrospective as all. A look back at the greatest hits of 2006.

(By coincidence, this contest is going on today)

January was caucus, caucus, caucus as we actually thought a four way governor's race might send the nomination to a convention (remember that Patty Judge started out running for governor?) But my heaviest traffic that month came not from Iowa but from Canada. I made a brief mention of their election and was bombarded by northerners trying to evade their national blackout of returns until the polls closed in the Yukon.



In February, back when no one knew who the heck Dave Loebsack was, John Edwards came to town. Lonny Pulkrabek showed some nerve:

Johnson County's top lawman urged state lawmakers Wednesday to decrease the criminal penalties for possessing a small amount of marijuana, a move that would essentially make penalties for such an offense comparable to getting a speeding ticket.

Governor candidates start naming other governor candidates as running mates, and I get hit by a car on my bike.

March starts with the county conventions, which were being liveblogged all over the state. A bump in the road for Dave Loebsack on filing deadline day and lots of folks write him off... Rallies for peace and choice, the Touch Play battle rages, and I first discover the jet powered slug bug.


April: Auntie Em! It's a twister! I first realize the impact the next morning when I bike past Happy Joe's - and there IS NO Happy Joe's. The GOP has a palace coup and Stew Iverson is deposed. Bush comes to Iowa for Nussle and Mike Blouin has soup in response. Neil Young rocks the planet with Living With War. Gas hits $3 a gallon and people actually stop driving for a moment. And Brett Favre says he'll play.



May and primary politicking peaks on the Ped Mall. Sal Mohamed, however, prefers street corners. And the Republican candidates for Secretary of State look for ways to keep you from voting; neither of them make it to the fall.



June and John Edwards comes back after the 666 primary to support Chet and unity. Locally the big winners are Larry Meyers and Janet Lyness. And there was that big upset by Denise O'Brien. The laptop crashed and with it six months of messages.

July: The DNC sets the 2008 calendar of Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, New Hampshire. The foot doctor walks away, and Steve King likens immigrants to livestock. RAGBRAI rolls through. Lance Armstrong: big deal. John Kerry: no so much.

August: A local feather dustup over Jim Leach's campaign goodies. (I guess that problem is now moot.) The futile search for a GOP Secretary of State candidate finally ends with a reach to Washington DC for the Invisible Woman. Bill Northey starts getting nasty. The tenth anniversary of the murder of Eric Shaw passes. And whatever happened to Ned Lamont?



September brings Obamamania Part 1 and record traffic thanks to link love at Obama's site. Loads of liveblogging with Loebsack at the Mill (my scoop of the year: Loebsack for single payer health care) Vilsack in Coralville, my one shot at Mark Warner, Chet in Iowa City on Labor Day and Chris Dodd at the Dems BBQ in North Liberty.



September is when they start calling Bruce Braley a commie. The Hawkeyes peak early as the national sports spotlight lands on Iowa City for the Ohio State game. I do my Scarface imitation. And I write what I consider my best post of the year on the bullying bill.

October starts with Evan Bayh stressing at the last seconds of a Colts win. Bill Clinton keynotes the Jefferson-Jackson dinner and John Kerry comes to Iowa City for Chet.. All of a sudden, people start to notice this Loebsack guy. I looked back 10 years to the night I knew I was going to lose. The redundant registration Robot reminds us for four days. Spinach disappears and reappears, and Weird Al unleashes a masterpiece.

November and Steve King no quisiera que usted votara. Obamamania comes to the Ped Mall and the crowd chants "Dave! Dave! Dave!" We start to suspect something really big is happening...

Victory.

Election Day sets another traffic record even though my work obligations keep me from writing till 3 AM Wednesday. Vilsack wastes no time declaring victory and getting in. Pundits mourn Jim Leach, and the UI president crisis hits the fan.

Dems remain giddy into December. I get all big picture with the caucuses' greatest hits and ranking the presidential contenders as Spinal Tap members. Vilsack gets all big brother with his logo and all ducky with John Stewart. Loebsack gets right to work.

Sal for President!

Sal for President!

The new definition of undaunted. Or, as Ron at Politics1 euphemizes, "frequent candidate":

While Sal Mohamed of Sioux City placed an advertisement in the Journal Thursday inviting the public to his press conference to announce his run for President of the United States, he knows his candidacy could be halted, but is hoping it won't be.

As an Egypt-born man who became a U.S. citizen in 1983, Mohamed could be tripped up by the Constitution...

He finished third of three candidates in 2004 in the Democratic Party Iowa 5th District congressional primary, and last month finished fourth of four Democrats wanting the party's governor nominee title, which went to Chet Culver.

Discussing Mohamed's presidential aspirations, Woodbury County Democratic Party chairwoman Teresa Wolff said, "I think that Sal needs to take a look at his strategies in how he wants to get involved in politics."

Hat tip to Krusty.

The Last Poll

The Last Poll

Culver 36.
Blouin 28.
Fallon 21.
Mohamed 1.

The ball game ain't over. Blouin is helped by better field organization and the likelihood of disproportionately high turnout in the 1st CD. Fallon is helped by the intensity of his support - frankly, low turnout helps Ed more than anyone else.

The 36 percent looks dangerously close to a convention but that's a penny on its edge scenario at this point. Granted, the penny almost landed on its edge in 2002 for the Republicans. The more Sal gets, the more likely a convention, but I think he's fixed at his one percent. Culver would need to slip a bit more and the undecideds would need to break about 60% to Fallon. And since polling started, Blouin has climbed faster than Fallon.

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Nearly 500 voters in Johnson County yesterday. That's up a bit from the same day in 2004, though overall we're 200 behind the 2004 pace (that was the second highest turnout Dem primary in Johnson County, and driven largely by the sheriff's race). For the numbers nerds among you, there's all sorts of old Johnson County stuff here.

Just the briefest of downtown Arts Fest stops, more of a pass-through really as downtown is between work and home; Nick Maybanks and Larry Meyers working the crowd.

Sal Sighting in IC

Sal Sighting in IC

Neighbor Sean reports Sal Mohamed in Iowa City again today, near University Hospitals.

The Most Coverage Sal Has Gotten All Year

The Most Coverage Sal Has Gotten All Year



Press-Citizen hangs out on the corner with Sal"

Mohamed, who has raised $6,000 for his campaign, spent an entire day at the corner of Grand Avenue and Riverside Drive on Monday talking to passersby and waving to motorists.

'This is the most effective way to get direct contact with the people. ... Politicians don't have to raise a lot of money to get into office,' said Mohamed, who held a 3-by-5-foot sign, a small American flag and an umbrella in case it rained.

Sal in Iowa City

Sal in Iowa City

From Jeff Fields:

Sal Mohamed, Democratic candidate for Governor of Iowa, is in Iowa City this morning, Monday May 22, 2006. I saw him at the corner of Riverside Drive and Burlington Street with his large banner.

IF YOU SEE MR. MOHAMED TODAY, PLEASE BEEP YOUR HORN OR WAVE AT HIM TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE HARD WORK HE HAS PUT IN ON BEHALF OF THE STATE OF IOWA.

Why? Because Sal Mohamed is the 4th candidate in the Democrtic primary, and appears to be running a one person statewide campaign. He has criss-crossed Iowa, campaigning as if he does not know he's a very distant 4th. He's got a message, and he's making sure everyone hears it. I do not know a single person who's supporting him publicly. I'm not. I'm voting for Ed Fallon in the primary. But I have great respect for Mr. Mohamed, his hard work, and his message.

Even if he only gets 1% of the vote, as many experts are predicting, Sal Mohamed is the American dream hard at work. Even as a distant 4th, he is a constant reminder that every voice is critical to the future of our state, our counties, and our neighborhoods!

Have a good day, and beep for Sal Mohamed and others like him.