The Last Poll

The Last Poll

Culver 36.
Blouin 28.
Fallon 21.
Mohamed 1.

The ball game ain't over. Blouin is helped by better field organization and the likelihood of disproportionately high turnout in the 1st CD. Fallon is helped by the intensity of his support - frankly, low turnout helps Ed more than anyone else.

The 36 percent looks dangerously close to a convention but that's a penny on its edge scenario at this point. Granted, the penny almost landed on its edge in 2002 for the Republicans. The more Sal gets, the more likely a convention, but I think he's fixed at his one percent. Culver would need to slip a bit more and the undecideds would need to break about 60% to Fallon. And since polling started, Blouin has climbed faster than Fallon.

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Nearly 500 voters in Johnson County yesterday. That's up a bit from the same day in 2004, though overall we're 200 behind the 2004 pace (that was the second highest turnout Dem primary in Johnson County, and driven largely by the sheriff's race). For the numbers nerds among you, there's all sorts of old Johnson County stuff here.

Just the briefest of downtown Arts Fest stops, more of a pass-through really as downtown is between work and home; Nick Maybanks and Larry Meyers working the crowd.