Thursday, August 18, 2005

McCain Has Broad, but Not Deep, Appeal

McCain Has Broad, but Not Deep, Appeal

Gallup crunches the numbers and it's really interesting. The key findings: John McCain's appeal is flat and actually drops off among conservatives, while Hillary Rodham Clinton's popularity is directly correlated with ideology.

This looks like a plus for the Democrats to me: McCain may be liked by moderate to liberal Democrats, and against an unpopular Democrat would have some pick-off appeal. But Clinton is beloved be Dems, insulating them from Republican raids. Of course, she's loathed by Republicans but there's nothing to lose there.

Here's the other interesting finding (I'm out of time and having layout issues, scroll down):


























































Preference for the Republican Nomination
August 2005 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll

All Republicans

Liberal/Moderate Republicans

Conservative Republicans

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

27

29

27

John McCain

24

27

22

Condoleezza Rice

18

19

16

Bill Frist

8

4

11

Mitt Romney

4

6

3

George Allen

3

3

4

Sam Brownback

2

3

1

George Pataki

1

4

3

Chuck Hagel

<1

1

<1



HUGE huge gap on the right. Giuliani and McCain are leading on sheer name ID. Rice is the one I'm scared of (as a tough opponent - they'd ALL be pretty scary as president!) but she's untested in electoral politics and waiting for a draft. That strategy gets her off to a slow start and fools no one. If you want the job, apply. Frist is floundering and sinking, pandering in both directions with Schaivo and stem cells, and instead of winning both sides over he's alienating everyone.

It's a real opportunity for a wingnut.

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