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John Deeth Blog
Too old to be cool, too young not to care
Thursday, September 27, 2007

Strategic Vision Poll: Iowa Dems Close

OK, here's the numbers:
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 22%
Barack Obama 21%
Bill Richardson 13%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 14%

Anybody's ball game in Iowa, but not reflective of the national trend. Biden is officially trowing everything he's got at Iowa, and so to a lesser extent is Edwards.

Here's the catch: the Anyone But Hillary vote is split dead even: a third Edwards, a third Obama, a third rest of the field. If that dynamic keeps up, Clinton gets undtoppable.

GOP side:
Mitt Romney 30%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
Fred Thompson 13%
Mike Huckabee 8%
John McCain 6%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Ron Paul 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 13%

I don't see how The Mitt doesn't win Iowa. Rudy has to throw enough at us to hold on to second. Fred's flavor of the week flower will fade. Huckabee might have a shot at top three is backers of the also-rans move to him, but the blood is so bad between him and Brownback (who's toast) that I don't see it happening. Remember, Republicans don't deal with the viability and second choice stuff, they just vote.

Strategic Vision Poll: Iowa Dems Close: Link | |
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email jdeethATmchsi.com
About Me: John Deeth is a Des Moines Register guest blogger who has been featured in publications ranging from the Drudge Report to the Huffington Post. His past affiliations include WSUI radio (NPR) and Iowa Independent. Deeth and his trademark raspberry beret were a frequent presence on the 2007 Iowa caucus scene.

Deeth is also a political activist in Johnson County and the Democratic Party, and ran for the Iowa legislature in 1996.

The John Deeth Blog, recently listed as one of the top state-level political blogs by the Washington Post, has been published since Dec. 31, 2002. John's writing interests include electoral politics in general and Iowa politics in particular, popular music and culture, and technology.

John lives in Iowa City, Iowa, with his wife Koni Steele, their sons Hayden and Ethan, and their cats. Their family also includes their daughter Jimiya and grandson Elias.

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