Caucus Date: NH Reacts to Michigan

Caucus Date: NH Reacts to Michigan

The ripples are still rolling through the small pond of the early states, as several of the big fish jumped out of the pool of Michigan candidates in a fast-moving Tuesday afternoon.

Joe Biden, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson all took their names off the Jan. 15 Michigan ballot on yesterday's deadline, leaving Hillary Clinton to face Chris Dodd as the "anybody but" candidate, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel as the "what the hell" choices, and Mickey Mouse on the write-in line.

In New Hampshire, the Democratic Party hinted this may affect New Hampshire's date decision. "Today's turn of events only further amplifies the fact that the Michigan primary is irrelevant," said party spokesman Ray Buckley. "Our Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, now has more flexibility in his scheduling decision because the Michigan event is no longer a 'similar event' to the New Hampshire primary."

But Gardner disagrees, telling the Manchester Union Leader, "If one party has a primary, just as the Republicans in South Carolina are, then it still matters and it's a similar election. Even if all the Democrats come off the ballot, the Republicans in Michigan are having a primary on that day."

"Similar event" is the phrase that pays in New Hampshire's first in the nation law (um... what if some other state passes the same law?) written by state representative Jim Splaine. At the Blue Hampshire blog, Splaine makes his case for a December primary, before Iowa:

If Iowa does go January 3rd or 5th, the problem with setting our date for Tuesday, January 8th would be that for the entire Holiday Season, the Presidential candidates of both parties may well camp out in Iowa.

A NH Primary on or around December 11th would mean that after our event, the "winners" and those "exceeding expectations" would be exposed to a great deal of nationwide analysis during the Holiday Season as to just why they did so well, or not, and how their showing in New Hampshire will affect the next race in Iowa and other states beginning the first week of January. That contributes to the respected "impact" of the NH lead-off primary, and sets us in good position to remain first and relevant for 2012 and beyond.

Meanwhile Gardner, the New Hampshire secretary of state who holds the date in his hands, is a little concerned that the Iowa GOP is moving forward on a date, according to MSNBC.

Around the blogosphere, reactions are predictable. Iowan iPol grumbles at Clinton and Dodd and Bleeding Heartland has a concise, R-rated headline. Iowa hater Kos thinks this will have a November impact:

Whoever the nominee is will have to go back to Michigan during the general -- a swing state, let's not forget -- and explain why they gave them the big "f' you" during the primaries.

But do Real People who aren't geeks about nomination rules trivia going to remember or care in a year? And are the party activists going to be so mad at, say, Obama or Edwards that they would vote for Romney or Giuliani? Didn't think so.

Back in Michigan, the Republicans were debating last night, and Brian Dickerson of the Detroit Free Press predicts mischief:

In an eyeblink, Republican presidential candidates who'd come to Dearborn to court the GOP base found themselves confronting a diverse primary audience that might also include liberal supporters of Obama and John Edwards, independents turned off by the reduced Democratic field and mischief makers determined to sow confusion in the Republican camp... crossover voters may be drawn to mavericks like Ron Paul or Tom Tancredo.

And at the Politico, a early commenter notes the risk Clinton has taken: "What if she ends up head to head with Kucinich and only pulls 65% of the vote?" Add "Dodd" to that sentence, but the point stands: Michigan is a yes or no vote on Clinton.

(Updated: seems Team Kucinich did the paperwork wrong and botched the drop-out.)