Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Why Doesn't Wisconsin Count?

Why Doesn't Wisconsin Count?

An excuse for some casual liveblogging of my native state. With Obama expected to win, we're waiting for Team Hillary weekly Why This State Doesn't Count statement. You can help.

Why Doesn't Wisconsin Count?
Next to Illinois so it's like practically his home state
Same day registration so too many people can vote (unlike caucus states where too few can vote)
Lack of party registration
No WISCONSIN debates (the 15 pre-Wisconsin debates also don't count)
Our senior women slipped on the ice
Packer fans still angry at anything from New York (and thus embraced a Bears fan instead)
Ron Paul
Free polls from Pollhost.com

While we wait, here's a song about Wisconsin.

Dahmer is dead.
Dahmer is dead.
A broomstick bashed him upside his head.
Dahmer is dead.
Dahmer is dead.
A broomstick bashed him upside his head.
Upside the head, upside the head.
Bloody broomstick.
Dahmer is dead.

Am I supposed to feel outrage?
Am I supposed to feel sorrow?
That Jeffrey Dahmer has no bright tomorrow?

The most telling aspects of the state of the Clinton campaign come out of Texas and Pennsylvania. In Texas, the arcane selection rules could mean that Obama can take more delegates with less votes (to make the long story short, it's based on 2004 and 2006 vote totals, and Hispanic turnout was down while black turnout was up). Obscure, but the rules have been out there for ages. As for Pennsylvania, Team Hillary failed to file a complete delegate slate.

The common thread here: it's glaringly obvious that there was no post-Super Tuesday Clinton Game Plan other than "have the nomination wrapped up already."

One smart move: saw Hillary at a rally in DePere last night and a person in a Packer hat was strategically located just behind her.

Polls close, instantly called for McCain. He's already giving the victory speech so he doesn't have to stay up past his bedtime. He thanks Huckabee before he thanks his wife. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, they're saying "substantial Obama lead but too early to call."

Mac says "Americans will not be deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change" and then drops some specific unnamed attacks against Obama on foreign policy. Not even token Hillary bashing; he's got his opponent picked out.

Ambien sales are likely to plummet this fall; just watch a McCain speech. At least he learned one lesson last week: speak BEFORE Obama.

8:18 and just as McCain wraps they call it for Obama.

Hillary speaks next, thanking the Ohio locals including "the student rep to the school board." Hello Cleveland! Hello, Cleveland. (Well, Youngstown, actually.) Not only no congrats to Obama, she kicks immediately into slams. Work, not words, solutions not speeches etc. etc. And a BLATANT reference to the woman who donated $ on behalf of her 2 and 4 year old daughters "to show them anything is possible" if you know what I mean.

8:36 and Obama is taking the stage so Hillary gets cut off. He's able to say "give a shout out" and "in the house" without sounding awkward. The old organizer is plugging early voting AND the election day caucus. (Told you it was byzantine)

My alma mater Eau Claire gets a mention from Obama. He's moving into the current version of the basic stump speech -- she was too, but when you win, you go last and you don't get cut off.

Looking at counties... I'm seeing 63% Obama in Dane (Madison), but that's only about 20% in. Nothing yet from La Crosse or Eau Claire, Obama ahead in Portage (Stevens Point), Hillary ahead in Ashland, Obama in Bayfield, and that's the places I've lived, know well or have family.

They're chanting the Bob The Builder mantra in Houston.

The crowd start to boo McCain -- and he holds his hand up to stop them. Praises his service, then attacks point by point ("when he says he is willing to send our troops into another 100 years of war in Iraq"), lets them boo a little, and ends the passage with "he represents the policies of the past, and I look forward to having that debate with John McCain" and applause. Deft. So was his timing; stepping on Hillary and getting 48 uninterrupted minutes.

Olbermann calls this the first pitch of the general election. Hillary flack says "outspent," which I left off the poll. Also a shot at the independents. (OK, I'm a hypocrite, I bash independents every chance I get.)

Russert raised the Edwards Factor; his white men went to Obama. My thought: Hillary needed Edwards to stay in through Super Tuesday to draw votes off of Obama.

Just before 10: Matthews, presumably called on the carpet this week, overcompensates on behalf of Team Hillary, badgering an obscure Texas legislator "can you name any of Obama's accomplishments as a US Senator?" The sad sack senator is woefully unprepared, and Hillary's spokesperson, Stephanie Tubbs-Jones of Cleveland, is right on message. It's almost a tag team. Even Olbermann thinks he's overdone it and the net's two rock stars sign off their joint coverage very testy with each other:

Matthews: "Somebody has to vet these guests. That's why they call it hardball."
Olbermann: "This isn't 'Hardball', this is the election results."

But Hillary doesn't gain much from the exchange, given she's down 15 in Wisconsin at the moment.

Fascinating headline: Republican Gerrymandering Favors Obama In Texas because of the way delegates will break out by district.

Updates on my old stomping grounds... Obama wins Up Nort in Ashland (52) and Bayfield (55). Madison goes 2 to 1 Obama, not a surprise. La Crosse: Obama 58. Eau Claire 60% Obama, Stevens Point 55% Barack. More to the point than Point: Obama 65% in Milwaukee. Out in Waukesha, the biggest suburban county, it's 53-46 Obama. 57% Obama in Packerland. The statewide margin is now 17 points... so did Hillary win ANYwhere? I'm seeing a few very small rural counties and Superior. That's it. (Wisconsin trivia: a century ago Superior, the lake port town at the state's northwest corner, was the second biggest city in Wisconsin behind only Milwaukee.)

Chuck Todd just pronounced Waukesha "wah KEY shuh", it's "WAW ke shaw."

On the GOP side Huckabee had a hot spot in the Eau Claire area, winning that county with 59% (?!?) plus a few neighboring as far south as, but not including, La Crosse. He might have carried the La Crosse-Eau Claire 3rd congressional district, which may or may not matter to Republican delegate math. Also Wausau and Stevens Point (Point has about six actual Republicans, it was one of about four counties in the state that McGovern carried in `72). There's been no mention at all of Team Huck tonight.

Obama has a narrow 3 point lead in the no-delegate Washington beauty contest (they had a Super Tuesday caucus). If the results reverse, any bets that Team Hillary will say it counts? On the GOP side, which does decide the delegates, McCain wins but Mitt still gets 21% even after quitting and endorsing McCain.

They're re-running Obama's speech and he suggests telling the kids to turn off the video games, so he just lost the elementary school boy vote at my house. Anyone else remember Calvin's polls of his dad's job approval ratings?

Picture Calvin, times two, and that's my boys.

No comments: