Monday, April 21, 2008

Obama Leads Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama Leads Iowa Electronic Markets on Pennsylvania Primary Eve

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) trading on the eve of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

As of 9:00 Monday morning, Obama shares were trading at 75 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 75 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Clinton shares were going for 21 cents. Obama has held the lead since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

The winner-take-all general election market has the Democratic nominee, once there is one, leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, 54 cents to 45.5 cents.

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