Friday, June 24, 2011

District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

Senate District 45

Registration: D 15353, R 7583, N 16455, total 39421, D + 7770
Incumbent: Joe Seng, D-Davenport

Last decade saw a major map rewrite in Scott County, and two legislators, Republican Dave Millage and Democrat Pat Deluhery, bailed to run unsuccessful statewide. This time, all the districts are basically recognizable. There's no open seats and no pair-ups.

After winning one term in the House as a post-primary replacement candidate, veterinarian Joe Seng (does the double honorific Senator Doctor Seng that he seems to prefer annoy anyone else?) won this seat easily in 2002. After going unopposed in 2006, he beat Some Dude Republican Mark Riley with 62% in 2010.

What was a vertical strip through the middle third of Davenport moves south and west and partway out of the city. The changes make this solidly Democratic district about 700 Democrats stronger.

House District 89

Registration: D 7327, R 4688, N 8576, total 20605, D+ 2639
Incumbent: Jim Lykam, D-Davenport

Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002, friendly enough that he drew a bye in 2010. (In 2006 he beat one Roby Smith, who we'll hear from next Tuesday). That turf, new in west central Davenport, stays just about as friendly this decade. He loses a couple precincts in the north, where the district used to go to the Davenport-Eldridge line, and shifts west to the Davenport city limits.

House District 90

Registration: D 8026, R 2895, N 7879, total 18816, D+ 5131
Incumbent: Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport

Winckler knocked off one-term Republican John Sunderbruch in 2000 and has been mostly solid since. Republicans made a relatively serious effort last cycle with city council member Ray Ambrose. (Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.) Ambrose held Winckler to a relatively close 55%, with dismal turnout. That may be the max for the GOP on this turf, as Winckler's margins are usually closer to 70-30.

The district shifts south and west, taking in most of southwest Davenport in wards 1 and 3. Winckler also moves east along the riverfront by what looks like one precinct, which gives her almost all of Davenport's Illinois border. It expands outside the city limit to include the city of Buffalo, which gives the district a nice long skinny shape that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes. The changes make the seat even more Democratic.

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