Friday, December 02, 2011

Two Incumbent Faceoff in Sioux City

Sioux City was ground zero in the battle for the legislature last year, with the entire Woodbury delegation stepping down and five open seats. The Tri-State Area looks to again be a battleground, with an open seat and what looks to be our first definite D vs. R two-incumbent House race.

Thursday saw dual announcements from the two freshmen in the core SUX seats: Democrat Chris Hall and Republican Jeremy Taylor. They will face off in House District 13, which more closely resembles Hall's old seat and had an April registration edge of 848 for the Democrats.

(All those registration margins will shift toward the GOP next year. Republicans will try to claim that as momentum on their part, when it's really just a function of which party had the contested caucus this cycle.)

The odd thing here is that there's an open seat right next door in House 14. Democrat Dave Dawson, who lost to Taylor in 2010, has announced again. That's the more Democratic of the two seats.

Based on party and turf, give the early edge to Hall, though the seat is close enough that field work and the larger political climate make it winnable for either side. Taylor won in a more Democratic seat last cycle. Expect both sides to make a big effort. Woodbury is historically one of the lowest turnout counties in the state, and it's the centerpiece of the Steve King-Christie Vilsack race.

In a mostly routine re-elect announcement, Greg Forristall is running again in safely Republican House 22.

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