Throughout my years at Roosevelt, I've had a lot of fun. Fun traditions filled our school. As this is the last year, I am honored to write one of the last graduation speeches for Roosevelt.
I have some advice for 5th graders, for both next year and the year after that, practice the locker combination. Also, for School Of The Wild wear jeans to avoid getting moss and other living things on you.
Now on to the 6th graders. We have one day left in elementary school, use it wisely; make sure it is well spent because after this no more recess.
Try your best next year and it will pay off. Next year is a whole lot more confusing for both 5th and 6th; we only have 2-3 years left until high school, which is even more complicated. Use your last minutes of childhood wisely or else you'll want to relive it over and it will haunt you forever.
As I'm graduating I soon hope to become a scholar. I then want to then learn different languages such as Spanish, German, French, Korean, and maybe even Japanese. I also then hope to learn Latin, which is one of the many languages that helped invent English.
We are the last graduating class of Roosevelt. We shall embrace it, because in the five years I've been here it's been far better than my old school in Missouri.
From the Apple Orchard, to the Wax Museum, this school has been a lot of fun. All paid for by our PTO which is so kind and generous. We all need to make Roosevelt proud by trying out best to succeed. We are the Road Runners.
The worst.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Last Day of Roosevelt: A Student Speaks
Today is the last day for our school, Roosevelt Elementary. We had sixth grade graduation yesterday and our son Hayden was chosen to speak. He's writing better than I am these days so I'm turning the space over to him today.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Primary Preview: Democratic House Races
In stark contrast to the House GOP, no incumbent House Democrats face
primary challenges, not even of the Some Dude variety. The contested
races are all open seats or challenges to Republican incumbents. And
even in those few races, events have been low-key and news is hard to
find.
To tell ya the truth, only two of these races are even very interesting, and donning the Beret of Objectivity the most interesting one is in my backyard.
House District 73 is Cedar County based. District line changes expanded the Johnson County part to include the greater Solon area and contracted the Muscatine County part to just the city limits of Wilton.
For months, this looked like a straight matchup between Republican incumbent Jeff Kaufmann, in a significantly weakened district, and Democrat David Johnson, who was on the West Branch city council when he announced soon after Map Day (he did not seek re-election last year).
But privately, many leading local Democrats were grumbling that Johnson was a weak candidate for a must-win district, and recruiting efforts continued. It's Johnson's third run for the House; in 1992 he ran as an independent against Bob Dvorsky, and in 1994 he challenged Dick Myers in a primary, losing 80-20. Meanwhile, rumors of a Kaufmann retirement or even immediate resignation were flying.
Both stories broke in the last weeks before the filing deadline. In late February, Solon school board member and former NCS executive Dick Schwab jumped in. Schwab has a high philanthropy profile in Johnson County and was the Press-Citizen's Person Of The Year in 2001.Then just a week before filing deadline and the night before county conventions, Kaufmann announced he was retiring and running for the Board of Supervisors instead. The next day, son Bobby Kaufmann rolled out his campaign.
The Democratic primary battle has gotten nasty enough that the Johnson County Democrats banned primary discussion in their Facebook group. This brief write-up can scarcely scratch the surfaces of the local nuances, but if you're in Johnson County you'd be interested in a look at the donor lists for Johnson and Schwab. It's all individuals; labor and other groups stayed out.
To grossly oversimplify for outsiders: Schwab has been at the center of a local zoning and road fight over his "Celebration Barn," where he hosts weddings and other events. The same approximate cluster of issues along Newport Road north of Iowa City led to a primary defeat for an incumbent county supervisor in 2006, and by coincidence zoning and conditional use hearings over Schwab's property have cropped up during the primary period.
Johnson, for his part, is arguing that a Cedar County candidate would be stronger in the general election.He has raised $6,461.81 and spent $5,894.62. Schwab, with a later start, leads with $11,196.00 raised and $8,628.04 spent.
The other hot Democratic primary is in House District 36 in the northwest corner of Des Moines, bounded roughly by 30th Street and University Avenue. This primary deserves the designation Democratic primaries used to get in the old South: "tantamount to election." This solid Democratic seat opened up right after Map Day when incumbent Janet Petersen opted for the just as good Senate seat.
Marti Anderson is former director of the Crime Victim Assistance Division of the Attorney General’s Office in the Iowa Department of Justice, and is married to Bob Brammer, longtime spokesperson at AG's office. Not surprisingly, she's got Tom Miller's support. Cara Kennedy-Ode and William Rock both announced early.
The differences in this race appear to be mostly demographic; a recent debate showed few issue differences. The donor lists for Anderson and Kennedy-Ode read like a who's who of Democratic politicos in Iowa.
Someone from Polk County will have to dig through to see a meaningful pattern; all I could detect was a slight generational skew of Kennedy-Odes folks being generally younger than Anderson's. Kennedy-Ode had a slight edge with $37,805.27 raised and $11,904.90 spent. Anderson raised $29,515.31 and spent $13,177.74. Again, all of this is individual donors with no labor or other interest group money.
Without a time-consuming cross-check, it looks like no one was backing both sides (in the Johnson-Schwab race a few local pols carefully gave identical checks to both). The two most meaningful non-Miller names to out-staters - Roxanne Conlin and Sen. Jack Hatch - are with Anderson. Janet Petersen stayed out of it.
It's orthodoxy among Iowa Democrats that more women need to be elected. Rock, running for a female-held safe seat against two strong female candidates, frankly looks like an afterthought, a good guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. He raised $2,559.13 and spent $1,792.48. But he does have the best committee name: "Citizens for Rock," which unfortunately Tenacious D did not release on their new album. (Unfortunately for William, JB and KG assess his primary chances: "Rock Is Dead.")
So those are the good ones. Let's look at the rest, since no one else is.
House District 16 is the more Republican of the two Council Bluffs seats, but still winnable in a good Democratic year, and since this is half of Mike Gronstal's Senate seat expect a big get out the vote effort.. The Democrats did win this seat's predecessor... until Doug Struyk switched parties. This was a pair-up of two GOP freshmen; Mary Ann Hanusa, who replaced Struyk, stayed put while Mark Brandenburg moved across town.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
No news coverage of any kind that I can find since the perfunctory mentions during filing week, most of which were by me. Pierce has raised $3,095.00 and spent $2,190.60; Guggisberg-Coners did not file a May 19 campaign finance report, meaning she's likely below the $750 that triggers reporting requirements.
House District 18 is an odd place to have a contested Democratic primary, as two-term Republican Jason Schultz went unopposed in both the 2008 and 2010 general elections. The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County and includes all of Shelby County. It's a good Republican district but not beyond hope.
Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen offers a symbolically powerful argument against Team Branstad 5.0: She worked at the Denison unemployment office until Branstad's budget cutting closed the doors. With that in mind, she's drawing significant labor support. Friedrichsen raised $9,919, with nearly half - $5,000 - from AFSCME. If nothing else, a strong fall effort by a candidate of this background helps the president and Christie Vilsack.
The other Democrat, Dunlap Mayor Bernard Murphy, raised $2028 and has spent it all.
House District 49 is another weird spot for a primary, as GOP incumbent Dave Deyoe has a fairly solid seat in Nevada and outlying Story County. It may have just been a matter of oops; in the lone story about the race, nurse Garland Bridges of Eldora said that when he announced he was unaware that said he was unaware fellow Democrat Kevin Ericson of Maxwell was running for the seat when Bridges made his decision. So obviously neither of them was really getting the word around.
Ericson has the money lead with $1,652.00 raised and $810.18 spent. Bridges has gotten one $50 check and spent $820.57 out of pocket.
House District 72 is an open Tama County based seat, where Republican Lance Horbach announced his retirement before The Map was even released.
The line changes shifts the district into the swing seat zone. Democrats look to be making a serious effort with Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia. She got the whole House Democrats rollout press release treatment... and then she got a primary opponent. Nathan Wrage of Gladbrook is a school custodian and county conservation board member.
Surprisingly, Wrage has the money lead, raising $2,983.00 -- $2500 of that from family members -- with $289.35 spent. Blackcloud-Garcia has raised just $1,830.00, with $1000 of that from one Michael Smith, a lobbyist for DC firm Cornerstone Government Affairs. Another $650 came from DC-area addresses, leaving just $180 in unitemized, local hat-pass type donations. She spent just $109.27.
Stay tuned for Part 3: Republican Senate races.
To tell ya the truth, only two of these races are even very interesting, and donning the Beret of Objectivity the most interesting one is in my backyard.
House District 73 is Cedar County based. District line changes expanded the Johnson County part to include the greater Solon area and contracted the Muscatine County part to just the city limits of Wilton.
For months, this looked like a straight matchup between Republican incumbent Jeff Kaufmann, in a significantly weakened district, and Democrat David Johnson, who was on the West Branch city council when he announced soon after Map Day (he did not seek re-election last year).
But privately, many leading local Democrats were grumbling that Johnson was a weak candidate for a must-win district, and recruiting efforts continued. It's Johnson's third run for the House; in 1992 he ran as an independent against Bob Dvorsky, and in 1994 he challenged Dick Myers in a primary, losing 80-20. Meanwhile, rumors of a Kaufmann retirement or even immediate resignation were flying.
Both stories broke in the last weeks before the filing deadline. In late February, Solon school board member and former NCS executive Dick Schwab jumped in. Schwab has a high philanthropy profile in Johnson County and was the Press-Citizen's Person Of The Year in 2001.Then just a week before filing deadline and the night before county conventions, Kaufmann announced he was retiring and running for the Board of Supervisors instead. The next day, son Bobby Kaufmann rolled out his campaign.
The Democratic primary battle has gotten nasty enough that the Johnson County Democrats banned primary discussion in their Facebook group. This brief write-up can scarcely scratch the surfaces of the local nuances, but if you're in Johnson County you'd be interested in a look at the donor lists for Johnson and Schwab. It's all individuals; labor and other groups stayed out.
To grossly oversimplify for outsiders: Schwab has been at the center of a local zoning and road fight over his "Celebration Barn," where he hosts weddings and other events. The same approximate cluster of issues along Newport Road north of Iowa City led to a primary defeat for an incumbent county supervisor in 2006, and by coincidence zoning and conditional use hearings over Schwab's property have cropped up during the primary period.
Johnson, for his part, is arguing that a Cedar County candidate would be stronger in the general election.He has raised $6,461.81 and spent $5,894.62. Schwab, with a later start, leads with $11,196.00 raised and $8,628.04 spent.
The other hot Democratic primary is in House District 36 in the northwest corner of Des Moines, bounded roughly by 30th Street and University Avenue. This primary deserves the designation Democratic primaries used to get in the old South: "tantamount to election." This solid Democratic seat opened up right after Map Day when incumbent Janet Petersen opted for the just as good Senate seat.
Marti Anderson is former director of the Crime Victim Assistance Division of the Attorney General’s Office in the Iowa Department of Justice, and is married to Bob Brammer, longtime spokesperson at AG's office. Not surprisingly, she's got Tom Miller's support. Cara Kennedy-Ode and William Rock both announced early.
The differences in this race appear to be mostly demographic; a recent debate showed few issue differences. The donor lists for Anderson and Kennedy-Ode read like a who's who of Democratic politicos in Iowa.
Someone from Polk County will have to dig through to see a meaningful pattern; all I could detect was a slight generational skew of Kennedy-Odes folks being generally younger than Anderson's. Kennedy-Ode had a slight edge with $37,805.27 raised and $11,904.90 spent. Anderson raised $29,515.31 and spent $13,177.74. Again, all of this is individual donors with no labor or other interest group money.
Without a time-consuming cross-check, it looks like no one was backing both sides (in the Johnson-Schwab race a few local pols carefully gave identical checks to both). The two most meaningful non-Miller names to out-staters - Roxanne Conlin and Sen. Jack Hatch - are with Anderson. Janet Petersen stayed out of it.
It's orthodoxy among Iowa Democrats that more women need to be elected. Rock, running for a female-held safe seat against two strong female candidates, frankly looks like an afterthought, a good guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. He raised $2,559.13 and spent $1,792.48. But he does have the best committee name: "Citizens for Rock," which unfortunately Tenacious D did not release on their new album. (Unfortunately for William, JB and KG assess his primary chances: "Rock Is Dead.")
So those are the good ones. Let's look at the rest, since no one else is.
House District 16 is the more Republican of the two Council Bluffs seats, but still winnable in a good Democratic year, and since this is half of Mike Gronstal's Senate seat expect a big get out the vote effort.. The Democrats did win this seat's predecessor... until Doug Struyk switched parties. This was a pair-up of two GOP freshmen; Mary Ann Hanusa, who replaced Struyk, stayed put while Mark Brandenburg moved across town.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
No news coverage of any kind that I can find since the perfunctory mentions during filing week, most of which were by me. Pierce has raised $3,095.00 and spent $2,190.60; Guggisberg-Coners did not file a May 19 campaign finance report, meaning she's likely below the $750 that triggers reporting requirements.
House District 18 is an odd place to have a contested Democratic primary, as two-term Republican Jason Schultz went unopposed in both the 2008 and 2010 general elections. The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County and includes all of Shelby County. It's a good Republican district but not beyond hope.
Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen offers a symbolically powerful argument against Team Branstad 5.0: She worked at the Denison unemployment office until Branstad's budget cutting closed the doors. With that in mind, she's drawing significant labor support. Friedrichsen raised $9,919, with nearly half - $5,000 - from AFSCME. If nothing else, a strong fall effort by a candidate of this background helps the president and Christie Vilsack.
The other Democrat, Dunlap Mayor Bernard Murphy, raised $2028 and has spent it all.
House District 49 is another weird spot for a primary, as GOP incumbent Dave Deyoe has a fairly solid seat in Nevada and outlying Story County. It may have just been a matter of oops; in the lone story about the race, nurse Garland Bridges of Eldora said that when he announced he was unaware that said he was unaware fellow Democrat Kevin Ericson of Maxwell was running for the seat when Bridges made his decision. So obviously neither of them was really getting the word around.
Ericson has the money lead with $1,652.00 raised and $810.18 spent. Bridges has gotten one $50 check and spent $820.57 out of pocket.
House District 72 is an open Tama County based seat, where Republican Lance Horbach announced his retirement before The Map was even released.
The line changes shifts the district into the swing seat zone. Democrats look to be making a serious effort with Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia. She got the whole House Democrats rollout press release treatment... and then she got a primary opponent. Nathan Wrage of Gladbrook is a school custodian and county conservation board member.
Surprisingly, Wrage has the money lead, raising $2,983.00 -- $2500 of that from family members -- with $289.35 spent. Blackcloud-Garcia has raised just $1,830.00, with $1000 of that from one Michael Smith, a lobbyist for DC firm Cornerstone Government Affairs. Another $650 came from DC-area addresses, leaving just $180 in unitemized, local hat-pass type donations. She spent just $109.27.
Stay tuned for Part 3: Republican Senate races.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Primary Preview: Contested Democratic Senate Races
With my self-declared semi-hiatus, the beret is getting a little dusty. Time to shake off some cobwebs.
Most of the excitement this primary season is on the right hand side of the ballot, with two contested Republican congressional primaries and a rash of primary challenges and open-seat fights. There's much less action on the Democratic side - two weeks out, and huh? congressional challenger Joe Seng is invisible, perhaps hoping to be the Keith Judd of Iowa and attract votes simply by getting his name - barely - on the ballot.
But there are still some interesting legislative primaries, and since a May 19 campaign finance filing deadline is a big chunk to chew on all at once, I'll ease in with those races before working my appetite up for the Republican primary challengers.
Senate District 14
This is the open seat of former Senate GOP leader Paul McKinley, and the new turf is much friendlier for a Democrat. The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County.
Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, is the clear favorite here for the Democratic nomination. His opponent, James Demichelis Sr., won 33% in a 2008 House race.
Schrad had raised or loaned himself $4,339.20 and spent $3,567.18 by May 15. Demichelis did not file a report, indicating he likely was below the $750 reporting threshold. In fact, the most noteworthy thing about Demichelis is that James Demichelis Jr. is running in a House primary in an overlapping seat -- as a Republican, forcing family members to choose which party's primary they want to vote in. And the immediate family vote may well be a significant share of his support.
Senate District 38
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. GOP freshman Tim Kapucian is drawn into a dead even seat with lots of new territory. The lines are simple: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties.
Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic.
Parbs had raised a respectable $7,410, largely from labor and also from some Linn County donors including former Cedar Rapids mayor Kay Halloran. Parbs had spent $3,364.65 by May 15. Volk raised $3,590, mostly from family, and spent $2,883.79. Sherman did not file a report.
Senate District 42
Democrat Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest bits of Washington and Jefferson.
The early favorite was Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland, but he dropped out shortly before losing his battle with cancer in March. Donna Amandus, also of Fort Madison, was chairing Ireland's campaign, and is now running herself. She faces another Fort Madison candidate, electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz, and Mount Pleasant's Rich Taylor, a recently retired corrections officer.
Taylor has a big money lead with $17,544 raised -- $11,000 of that from his own union, AFSCME. (Other unions or groups don't look to be involved in this race.) He's spent $7,846.27 of that. Morawitz raised $8,021.30 and spent $1,532.42, just behind Amandus who has $8,673.91 raised and $5,148.24 spent.
Senate District 49
This Clinton-based seat is the only two year Senate term on the ballot. The Democratic race was in limbo for quite a while after Map Day due to a pair-up one seat to the north. But Tod Bowman stayed with Jackson County and this seat went open. Clinton County is whole and makes up about 3/4 of the seat, with the rest in and northern Scott County.
Two Democratic women are running: Rita Hart of Wheatland, a community volunteer and retired teacher, and Clinton attorney Dorothy O'Brien.
O'Brien has the money lead with $11,536.12 raised and $7,866.88 spent. Her donors included former legislators Art Ollie, Polly Bukta and Tom Schueller (who's attempting a comeback after losing a 2010 upset). Hart raised an also solid $9,073.00, with $6,922.75 spent. Hart donors included former auditor Charlie Sheridan. Clinton's current state representative, Mary Wolfe, donated to both candidates.
Whichever Democrat wins should be favored in November, but Republicans have a strong candidate. Andrew Naeve lost to Bowman by just 70 votes two years ago, in a more Democratic version of this seat.
Part two, when I get around to it next couple-a days, is the Democratic House primaries. Then I'll be back in shape enough to tackle the Republican races.
Most of the excitement this primary season is on the right hand side of the ballot, with two contested Republican congressional primaries and a rash of primary challenges and open-seat fights. There's much less action on the Democratic side - two weeks out, and huh? congressional challenger Joe Seng is invisible, perhaps hoping to be the Keith Judd of Iowa and attract votes simply by getting his name - barely - on the ballot.
But there are still some interesting legislative primaries, and since a May 19 campaign finance filing deadline is a big chunk to chew on all at once, I'll ease in with those races before working my appetite up for the Republican primary challengers.
Senate District 14
This is the open seat of former Senate GOP leader Paul McKinley, and the new turf is much friendlier for a Democrat. The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County.
Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, is the clear favorite here for the Democratic nomination. His opponent, James Demichelis Sr., won 33% in a 2008 House race.
Schrad had raised or loaned himself $4,339.20 and spent $3,567.18 by May 15. Demichelis did not file a report, indicating he likely was below the $750 reporting threshold. In fact, the most noteworthy thing about Demichelis is that James Demichelis Jr. is running in a House primary in an overlapping seat -- as a Republican, forcing family members to choose which party's primary they want to vote in. And the immediate family vote may well be a significant share of his support.
Senate District 38
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. GOP freshman Tim Kapucian is drawn into a dead even seat with lots of new territory. The lines are simple: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties.
Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic.
Parbs had raised a respectable $7,410, largely from labor and also from some Linn County donors including former Cedar Rapids mayor Kay Halloran. Parbs had spent $3,364.65 by May 15. Volk raised $3,590, mostly from family, and spent $2,883.79. Sherman did not file a report.
Senate District 42
Democrat Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest bits of Washington and Jefferson.
The early favorite was Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland, but he dropped out shortly before losing his battle with cancer in March. Donna Amandus, also of Fort Madison, was chairing Ireland's campaign, and is now running herself. She faces another Fort Madison candidate, electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz, and Mount Pleasant's Rich Taylor, a recently retired corrections officer.
Taylor has a big money lead with $17,544 raised -- $11,000 of that from his own union, AFSCME. (Other unions or groups don't look to be involved in this race.) He's spent $7,846.27 of that. Morawitz raised $8,021.30 and spent $1,532.42, just behind Amandus who has $8,673.91 raised and $5,148.24 spent.
Senate District 49
This Clinton-based seat is the only two year Senate term on the ballot. The Democratic race was in limbo for quite a while after Map Day due to a pair-up one seat to the north. But Tod Bowman stayed with Jackson County and this seat went open. Clinton County is whole and makes up about 3/4 of the seat, with the rest in and northern Scott County.
Two Democratic women are running: Rita Hart of Wheatland, a community volunteer and retired teacher, and Clinton attorney Dorothy O'Brien.
O'Brien has the money lead with $11,536.12 raised and $7,866.88 spent. Her donors included former legislators Art Ollie, Polly Bukta and Tom Schueller (who's attempting a comeback after losing a 2010 upset). Hart raised an also solid $9,073.00, with $6,922.75 spent. Hart donors included former auditor Charlie Sheridan. Clinton's current state representative, Mary Wolfe, donated to both candidates.
Whichever Democrat wins should be favored in November, but Republicans have a strong candidate. Andrew Naeve lost to Bowman by just 70 votes two years ago, in a more Democratic version of this seat.
Part two, when I get around to it next couple-a days, is the Democratic House primaries. Then I'll be back in shape enough to tackle the Republican races.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
famIly leader Endorses
Your District of the Day obsessive is still out here, quietly monitoring the action in all those GOP legislative primary challenges and ignoring little stuff like Mitt Romney in Des Moines and Obama backing marriage equality.
The whole season got delayed by the elongated legislative session, but the release of a list by the famI leader himself, BVP, is as good an excuse as any to round up the random stuff.
Let's start with BVP's endorsements. Only one of these, Steve Sodder's Senate 36, is Democratic-held.
Dennis Guth of Klemme, Senate District 4: Guth is clearly the righty against Branstad-recruited, one-year ex-senator Jim "Back In" Black.
Jeff Mullen of Clive, Senate District 22: No surprise at all here, as BVP picks the social conservative minister over semi-incumbent Pat Ward. Liberty Iowa PAC also backed Mullen last week. West Des Moines Patch had a good look at the race recently.
Jane Jech of Marshalltown, Senate District 36: VERY interesting that famIly leader emphasizes this race, pitting two-time House loser Jech against the man who held this seat four years ago, Larry McKibben (who Branstad endorsed yesterday). Tells me that this is a direction of the party thing as much as anything.
Over on the House side:
Rep. Tom Shaw of Laurens, House District 10. Here's one where the incumbent is on the right. Shaw has a from the center challenge from recent UI grad Maison Bleam. Liberty Iowa Pac weighed in for Shaw, too, and Iowa Gun Owners PAC called Bleam a "socialist sounding former staff member of the British Parliament."
Rep. Cecil Dolecheck of Mount Ayr, House District 24. Primary challenger Jane Jensen doesn't have a high profile. Favorite quote from this KMA piece: " Jensen tells KMA News she's running for the legislature because she's angry with the federal government."
Joan Acela of Winterset, House District 25: The then-Madison County supervisor came in second to Julian Garrett of Indianola when the seat was open last cycle, in a race that split on county lines.
Rep. Joel Fry of Osceola, House District 27 (Challenger James Demichelis Jr., of Chariton) and Rep. Kevin Koester of Ankeny, House District 38 (Challenger is Brett Nelson of Saylor Township) Odd choices as both challengers have Some Dude profiles.
Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota, House District 78: BVP backs freshman Klein, a Sandy Greiner protege, over tea-partyish Priscilla Marlar of Wayland.
Other observations over the week:
Other than Dogs Against Annette Sweeney, her debate last night with Grandson Grassley offered few differences. I live in House District 50, I want to stay in the Legislature, I don't want to move.
Iowa Gun Owners PAC is targeting freshman Republican Jeff Smith in House District 1, saying Smith "BROKE HIS PLEDGE to support Constitutional Carry and voted with anti-gun Democrats to KILL the bill." Challenger Kevin Wolfswinkel "WILL be a vote we can count on in the General Assembly." Wolfswinkel is hosting a Friday event with Sen. Kent Sorenson, Rep. Kim the one term wonder Pearson and Shaw, who must not be too worried about his own primary if he has time for this. All Wolfswinkel needs is Glen Massie to complete the set.
Ruh-roh: Mark Segebart, a Crawford County supervisor, is hatin' Teh Gay in Senate 6, under a classic Doug Burns headline "Scooby-Doo can turn your kid gay."
Bret Hayworth looks at dueling endorsements in Sioux City based House District 13. This was the old Chris Rants seat, and Rants weighed in for his successor, Ron Jorgensen. Politically active minister Cary Gordon is backing the challenger, Matthew Ung. Gordon even manages to work in a dig at Thaddeus McCotter (Rants was the only visible McCotter supporter in the state). Surprised not to see this race on the famIly leader list.
In the House 81 GOP primary in Ottumwa for the right to lose to Democrat Mary Gaskill, Rick McClure dissed opponent Blake Smith at a Tea Party forum over his age: “Frankly – no offense to my opponent — but I won’t ever give the keys to my hot rod to a 22-year-old.” No offense indeed, Rick; maybe you should run for the Iowa City council.
A Republican is making a write in effort in Lee County's solidly blue House 83, held by Democrat Jerry Kearns. Why Jim Steffen is trying a write-in, rather than the much easier approach of a party convention, is unclear.
Best wishes to Democrat Mike McRae, who ended his campaign in House 42 after injuries in an accident. While he recovers, Democrats will need a new challenger for West Des Moines Republican Peter Cownie.
And other than another fundraising letter last week from Dave Loebsack emphasizing Joe Seng's anti-choice record, I've seen no evidence at all of a Seng campaign. 20 days out, and not even a campaign website. I've got my Loebsack yard sign up anyway.
The whole season got delayed by the elongated legislative session, but the release of a list by the famI leader himself, BVP, is as good an excuse as any to round up the random stuff.
Let's start with BVP's endorsements. Only one of these, Steve Sodder's Senate 36, is Democratic-held.
Dennis Guth of Klemme, Senate District 4: Guth is clearly the righty against Branstad-recruited, one-year ex-senator Jim "Back In" Black.
Jeff Mullen of Clive, Senate District 22: No surprise at all here, as BVP picks the social conservative minister over semi-incumbent Pat Ward. Liberty Iowa PAC also backed Mullen last week. West Des Moines Patch had a good look at the race recently.
Jane Jech of Marshalltown, Senate District 36: VERY interesting that famIly leader emphasizes this race, pitting two-time House loser Jech against the man who held this seat four years ago, Larry McKibben (who Branstad endorsed yesterday). Tells me that this is a direction of the party thing as much as anything.
Over on the House side:
Rep. Tom Shaw of Laurens, House District 10. Here's one where the incumbent is on the right. Shaw has a from the center challenge from recent UI grad Maison Bleam. Liberty Iowa Pac weighed in for Shaw, too, and Iowa Gun Owners PAC called Bleam a "socialist sounding former staff member of the British Parliament."
Rep. Cecil Dolecheck of Mount Ayr, House District 24. Primary challenger Jane Jensen doesn't have a high profile. Favorite quote from this KMA piece: " Jensen tells KMA News she's running for the legislature because she's angry with the federal government."
Joan Acela of Winterset, House District 25: The then-Madison County supervisor came in second to Julian Garrett of Indianola when the seat was open last cycle, in a race that split on county lines.
Rep. Joel Fry of Osceola, House District 27 (Challenger James Demichelis Jr., of Chariton) and Rep. Kevin Koester of Ankeny, House District 38 (Challenger is Brett Nelson of Saylor Township) Odd choices as both challengers have Some Dude profiles.
Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota, House District 78: BVP backs freshman Klein, a Sandy Greiner protege, over tea-partyish Priscilla Marlar of Wayland.
Other observations over the week:
Other than Dogs Against Annette Sweeney, her debate last night with Grandson Grassley offered few differences. I live in House District 50, I want to stay in the Legislature, I don't want to move.
Iowa Gun Owners PAC is targeting freshman Republican Jeff Smith in House District 1, saying Smith "BROKE HIS PLEDGE to support Constitutional Carry and voted with anti-gun Democrats to KILL the bill." Challenger Kevin Wolfswinkel "WILL be a vote we can count on in the General Assembly." Wolfswinkel is hosting a Friday event with Sen. Kent Sorenson, Rep. Kim the one term wonder Pearson and Shaw, who must not be too worried about his own primary if he has time for this. All Wolfswinkel needs is Glen Massie to complete the set.
Ruh-roh: Mark Segebart, a Crawford County supervisor, is hatin' Teh Gay in Senate 6, under a classic Doug Burns headline "Scooby-Doo can turn your kid gay."
Bret Hayworth looks at dueling endorsements in Sioux City based House District 13. This was the old Chris Rants seat, and Rants weighed in for his successor, Ron Jorgensen. Politically active minister Cary Gordon is backing the challenger, Matthew Ung. Gordon even manages to work in a dig at Thaddeus McCotter (Rants was the only visible McCotter supporter in the state). Surprised not to see this race on the famIly leader list.
In the House 81 GOP primary in Ottumwa for the right to lose to Democrat Mary Gaskill, Rick McClure dissed opponent Blake Smith at a Tea Party forum over his age: “Frankly – no offense to my opponent — but I won’t ever give the keys to my hot rod to a 22-year-old.” No offense indeed, Rick; maybe you should run for the Iowa City council.
A Republican is making a write in effort in Lee County's solidly blue House 83, held by Democrat Jerry Kearns. Why Jim Steffen is trying a write-in, rather than the much easier approach of a party convention, is unclear.
Best wishes to Democrat Mike McRae, who ended his campaign in House 42 after injuries in an accident. While he recovers, Democrats will need a new challenger for West Des Moines Republican Peter Cownie.
And other than another fundraising letter last week from Dave Loebsack emphasizing Joe Seng's anti-choice record, I've seen no evidence at all of a Seng campaign. 20 days out, and not even a campaign website. I've got my Loebsack yard sign up anyway.
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
The Liberty List
The newly formed "Liberty Iowa PAC" put out an endorsement list of "Constitutional conservatives" for the June 5 Republican primary, which is the first scorecard-type item I've seen yet for these races. Let's walk through it District of the Day style.
David Scott Edwards – Senate District 16: Uncontested primary. Some Dude challenging longtime incumbent Dick Dearden in heavily Democratic Des Moines seat.
Jeff Mullen – Senate District 22: Not a shocker here that they're backing conservative minister Mullen over the relative moderate Pat Ward. A good GOP seat but Democrats have a strong candidate in attornet Desmund Adams.
Randi Shannon – Senate District 34: An odd choice to emphasize; Shannon fits the group's profile, but not the district's, and Liz Mathis proved herself an incredibly strong candidate in the Battle Of Marion last year. Shannon is uncontested in the primary.
Will Johnson – Senate District 50: The former congressional candidate and newly minted national delegate has a primary contest with relatively weak John Hulshizer Jr., and no chance whatsoever against Pam Jochum in this heavily Democratic seat. (If you were running for a legislative seat, why would you want to be a national delegate? The slim chance at a moment on TV isn't worth giving up a solid week of coffees and doorknocking.)
Kevin Wolfswinkel – House District 1: NOW it gets interesting. A clear challenge from the right, and from the new part of the district, to Okoboji freshman Jeff Smith.
Josh Davenport – House District 2: Minister Davenport joined the race in March; young attorney Megan Hess had announced early. Open seat with good GOP numbers, but not impossible for Democrat Steve Bomgaars.
Tom Shaw – House District 10: Role reversal here as the "constitutional conservative" is incumbent Shaw. He's being challenged from the relative center by former UI student government president Maison Bleam.
Jason Schultz – House District 18: Odd choice as two-term Schultz has no primary opposition. Two Democrats are facing off in June.
Steve McCoy – House District 26: The open Glen Massie seat. McCoy, Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic), has a primary with Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman. The winner faces strong Democratic contender Scott Ourth, who lost a 2010 upset to Massie, in a dead-even district.
Joe Corbin – House District 32: Why? No primary opponent, no chance against Democrat Ruth Anne Gaines in a deep blue seat.
Tony Seliquini – House District 36 Same deal here in the open Janet Peterson house seat, except at least Seliquini has a primary against two other Some Dudes for the right to lose in November.
Matt DeVries – House District 37: Any signals are valuable in the six-way GOP primary in This Is Where Your District Went. Look for Paul backer DeVries to win this if it goes to a convention.
Jake Highfill – House District 39: This one's a big deal with Highfill the challenger to incumbent Erik Helland, and with the charges that Helland tried to ease Highfill out of the race with a job offer.
And that's the end of the list, which in numerical order looks oddly truncated at 39.
David Scott Edwards – Senate District 16: Uncontested primary. Some Dude challenging longtime incumbent Dick Dearden in heavily Democratic Des Moines seat.
Jeff Mullen – Senate District 22: Not a shocker here that they're backing conservative minister Mullen over the relative moderate Pat Ward. A good GOP seat but Democrats have a strong candidate in attornet Desmund Adams.
Randi Shannon – Senate District 34: An odd choice to emphasize; Shannon fits the group's profile, but not the district's, and Liz Mathis proved herself an incredibly strong candidate in the Battle Of Marion last year. Shannon is uncontested in the primary.
Will Johnson – Senate District 50: The former congressional candidate and newly minted national delegate has a primary contest with relatively weak John Hulshizer Jr., and no chance whatsoever against Pam Jochum in this heavily Democratic seat. (If you were running for a legislative seat, why would you want to be a national delegate? The slim chance at a moment on TV isn't worth giving up a solid week of coffees and doorknocking.)
Kevin Wolfswinkel – House District 1: NOW it gets interesting. A clear challenge from the right, and from the new part of the district, to Okoboji freshman Jeff Smith.
Josh Davenport – House District 2: Minister Davenport joined the race in March; young attorney Megan Hess had announced early. Open seat with good GOP numbers, but not impossible for Democrat Steve Bomgaars.
Tom Shaw – House District 10: Role reversal here as the "constitutional conservative" is incumbent Shaw. He's being challenged from the relative center by former UI student government president Maison Bleam.
Jason Schultz – House District 18: Odd choice as two-term Schultz has no primary opposition. Two Democrats are facing off in June.
Steve McCoy – House District 26: The open Glen Massie seat. McCoy, Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic), has a primary with Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman. The winner faces strong Democratic contender Scott Ourth, who lost a 2010 upset to Massie, in a dead-even district.
Joe Corbin – House District 32: Why? No primary opponent, no chance against Democrat Ruth Anne Gaines in a deep blue seat.
Tony Seliquini – House District 36 Same deal here in the open Janet Peterson house seat, except at least Seliquini has a primary against two other Some Dudes for the right to lose in November.
Matt DeVries – House District 37: Any signals are valuable in the six-way GOP primary in This Is Where Your District Went. Look for Paul backer DeVries to win this if it goes to a convention.
Jake Highfill – House District 39: This one's a big deal with Highfill the challenger to incumbent Erik Helland, and with the charges that Helland tried to ease Highfill out of the race with a job offer.
And that's the end of the list, which in numerical order looks oddly truncated at 39.
Friday, May 04, 2012
Joe The Plumber to Coralville
I knew Ohio's 9th Congressional District was gerrymandered something awful but who'd'a thought it stretched all the way from Toledo to Coralville?
"This thing is beautiful," says my pal redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "Up by Sandusky it doesn't connect by land at all, they used a freakin' BRIDGE.."
"This is what we in the business call a Democratic vote sink," said Mandering. "You take all your best Democratic turf and cram it into one seat, to get those voters out of the next districts over where you want Republicans to win. There's no way Joe The Plumber can win this thing, and that's on purpose. That's why he's out in Iowa shilling for a superPAC instead of campaigning in Cleveland. Ohio lost two seats, the Republicans controlled the whole shebang, somebody had to get screwed, and that somebody was Dennis Kucinich. I'd feel sorry for him but now he gets to stay home with his wife. And the least famous person in this race, Marcy Kaptur, is the one who's gonna win."
So how did they extend the district all the way out to Coralville, Jerry? "Well, Coralville and Toledo is both on I-80, and I hear Coralville likes to use I-80 to connect districts."
Joe the Plumber will be appearing at a town hall meeting Monday at the Coralville Holiday Inn and Conference Center.
Joe, whose real name is Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, shot to stardom during the 2008 presidential campaign when he asked then Sen. Barack Obama at an Ohio campaign appearance about Obama's plan for taxing small businesses. Wurzelbacher said he was about to purchase a company that makes just over $250,000 in revenue, and was concerned that Obama's tax policy would hurt his future business.
The John McCain campaign quickly dubbed Wurzelbacher, a plumber, as "Joe the Plumber" and held him up as an example of hard-working Americans who would be hurt by what Wurzelbacher called "socialist" policies.
Wurzelbacher has parlayed his fame into a political career. On March 6, he won the Republican primary for the House seat in the 9th Congressional District of Ohio.
"This thing is beautiful," says my pal redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "Up by Sandusky it doesn't connect by land at all, they used a freakin' BRIDGE.."
"This is what we in the business call a Democratic vote sink," said Mandering. "You take all your best Democratic turf and cram it into one seat, to get those voters out of the next districts over where you want Republicans to win. There's no way Joe The Plumber can win this thing, and that's on purpose. That's why he's out in Iowa shilling for a superPAC instead of campaigning in Cleveland. Ohio lost two seats, the Republicans controlled the whole shebang, somebody had to get screwed, and that somebody was Dennis Kucinich. I'd feel sorry for him but now he gets to stay home with his wife. And the least famous person in this race, Marcy Kaptur, is the one who's gonna win."
So how did they extend the district all the way out to Coralville, Jerry? "Well, Coralville and Toledo is both on I-80, and I hear Coralville likes to use I-80 to connect districts."
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Third Parties Goode News For Obama
Well, the "last true conservative in the race," Newt Gingrich, dropped out yesterday, well after it really mattered. Sure, Ron Paul is still fighting his rear guard effort, and finding more success at taking over party committees than at winning actual votes, but he won't be on the ballot either.
So what's an uncompromising Constitutional Conservative - like, say, Jamie Johnson of Iowa's Republican State Central Committee, who vows “My conscience will not let me help” Mitt Romney -- supposed to do?
Well, by coincidence, today is the start of the Libertarian National Convention, held appropriately enough in the do what thou wilt capital of America, Vegas, baby. The frontrunner for the nomination is the Libertarian's first bona fide elected official to seek the nomination since, well, Ron Paul in 1988. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran briefly for the Republican nomination this year on the Peter Tosh platform; elected officials only seem to get vocal about drug legalization once they LEAVE office. Johnson could have some appeal to Occupy types, but my pet theory is that Libertarians take two to three votes from Republicans for every one they take from Democrats.
Perhaps more of a threat to Mitt Romney is former congressman Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party. They're more of a strict social conservative outfit than the Libertarians, but that's the ticket Paul endorsed late in the 2008 cycle. Goode's got zero appeal to lefties but could draw decisive support in one state: his own Virginia. Public Policy Polling:
While Romney has some problems on the right from third parties, Obama has few worries on the left. The Greens seem to be rejecting the traditional fast track for a third party, the candidate with independent fame and name ID, in favor of the route to obscurity, the loyal party activist. Rosanne Barr of TV fame is running but is trailing Some Dude Jill Stein. In the DC Green primary, Barr tied for second with... Barack Obama write-ins.
The chattering class keeps trying to prop up the efforts of their Objective Journalism Dream Fantasy, a viable centrist independent presidential candidate. The much-ballyhooed Americans Elect project is having a lot of luck with ballot access, but much less luck getting a name candidate. They seem to be settling on "austere technocrat" David Walker, former U.S. comptroller general. But an election is not a New York Times op-ed, and without a Perot-like celebrity Americans Elect will be hard-pressed to get attention. And by its very nature a centrist party would tend to be a wash in terms of the Democrat vs. Republican dynamic.
So on balance, the one or two percent third party factor helps Obama and hurts Romney in what's likely to be a very close race. You might even say that for Obama, this is a Goode thing.
So what's an uncompromising Constitutional Conservative - like, say, Jamie Johnson of Iowa's Republican State Central Committee, who vows “My conscience will not let me help” Mitt Romney -- supposed to do?
Well, by coincidence, today is the start of the Libertarian National Convention, held appropriately enough in the do what thou wilt capital of America, Vegas, baby. The frontrunner for the nomination is the Libertarian's first bona fide elected official to seek the nomination since, well, Ron Paul in 1988. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran briefly for the Republican nomination this year on the Peter Tosh platform; elected officials only seem to get vocal about drug legalization once they LEAVE office. Johnson could have some appeal to Occupy types, but my pet theory is that Libertarians take two to three votes from Republicans for every one they take from Democrats.
Perhaps more of a threat to Mitt Romney is former congressman Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party. They're more of a strict social conservative outfit than the Libertarians, but that's the ticket Paul endorsed late in the 2008 cycle. Goode's got zero appeal to lefties but could draw decisive support in one state: his own Virginia. Public Policy Polling:
Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama's lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney's margin for error there is. Goode gets 10% from those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' suggesting that Romney does still have some work to do with the far right.Romney already has a very narrow path to 270 electoral votes. Obama was the first Democrat to carry Virginia since LBJ in 1964, and Romney absolutely need to flip it back.
While Romney has some problems on the right from third parties, Obama has few worries on the left. The Greens seem to be rejecting the traditional fast track for a third party, the candidate with independent fame and name ID, in favor of the route to obscurity, the loyal party activist. Rosanne Barr of TV fame is running but is trailing Some Dude Jill Stein. In the DC Green primary, Barr tied for second with... Barack Obama write-ins.
The chattering class keeps trying to prop up the efforts of their Objective Journalism Dream Fantasy, a viable centrist independent presidential candidate. The much-ballyhooed Americans Elect project is having a lot of luck with ballot access, but much less luck getting a name candidate. They seem to be settling on "austere technocrat" David Walker, former U.S. comptroller general. But an election is not a New York Times op-ed, and without a Perot-like celebrity Americans Elect will be hard-pressed to get attention. And by its very nature a centrist party would tend to be a wash in terms of the Democrat vs. Republican dynamic.
So on balance, the one or two percent third party factor helps Obama and hurts Romney in what's likely to be a very close race. You might even say that for Obama, this is a Goode thing.
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Painters of the World Unite
IS LOGO SHЗЯШIИ-ЩILLIAMS PAIЙT? ИУЭT! IS SФCIALIST ШOЯКЗЯS PAЯTЧ! IS ЩHУ PAIЙT IS ЯЭD! IИ SФVIЗT ЯЦSSIA HOЦSЭ PAIЙTS ЧФЦ! HAPPУ MAЧ DAУ TФ ALL GLФЯIФЦS ШФЯКЗЯS!