District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 34, Iowa House District 67 & 68

Senate District 34
Registration: D 11807, R 13003, N 14861, total 39715, R +1196
Incumbent: Liz Mathis, D-Cedar Rapids

There's a lot of competition, but without question THIS is the wackiest race in the state.

Less than a year ago, Republicans were battling for the right to run in the Marion senate race. It was Terry Branstad's Masterplan: kick conservaDem Swati Dandekar upstairs to the utility commission, win the Senate seat in a special, and boom, we have a tied Senate and welcome to Wisconsin.

But the Democrats won it before it even started. They'd been courting popular ex-TV anchor Liz Mathis for years to get her to run for office, and she finally said yes. And once she won the special, serious Republicans were scared off from the full term race.

One non-serious Republican stepped forward: Randi Shannon, who was a little extreme on rhetoric and had a residence issue (she reportedly lived in Johnson County, way outside the lines) but seemed like your garden variety Ron Paul tea partier.

Until the 4th of July. I gotta play this again:

Let me now announce to everyone in Iowa, I have become aware of the existence of the Original Republic for The United States of America.“We the People” re-inhabited our lawful de jure (de jur- “by right of lawful establishment”) government on March 30th, 2010. This is The Republic founded in 1787 and then abandoned during The Civil War in the 1860s. It was then replaced in 1871 by the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. (de facto-without law). This Unlawful Corporate Democracy, established by the forty-first congress, has been acting as though it is the “official government” which clearly it is not! Where the de jure Republic of The United States of America exists the de facto UNITED STATES CORPORATION, having no standing, must go away!

Now, knowing this, and with the best interests of The People of Iowa District 34 uppermost in my heart and out of respect for my own conscience, I am here to announce that I am ending my campaign as of this July 4th, 2012. I have accepted the position of U.S. Senator in The Republic of The United States of America, where I may better serve You and All of The People of Iowa. I want you to know I have taken an Oath to Uphold, Support and Defend The Constitution of The United States of America. This I will do to the best of my ability, So Help Me God.

Shannon's secession made national News Of The Weird headlines, and left the Republicans aghast, relieved, and with one small problem. Having bragged that they had a candidate in EVERY Senate seat, they had to replace Shannon on the ballot, and they were back to that problem of no serious Republican wanting to be the sacrificial lamb against Mathis.

The only non-serious one who stepped up was another Ron Paul type with another residency issue: Ryan Flood, last seen on the Paul campaign living in Texas. Oh, you two know each other? Yes, Flood was on Shannon's campaign finance reports as committee chair.

With all that, I'm surprised the Republicans even called the special convention. Mathis, meanwhile is out and about campaigning for other Senate Democrats.

What else. Oh, yeah, the line changes. Those were an issue in the special election. Mathis lives inside both old Senate 18, where the special was held and new Senate 34.
Republican nominee Cindy Golding, however, lives in new Senate 48 and said she would run for re-election there if she won the special. (She eventually decided not to run.)

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mathis for State Senate Mathis took in $21,680 during the filing period and has $34,511.22 on hand, more likely to help other Senate Democrats than to be needed against Flood (who had not yet formed his committee).

House District 67
Registration: D 5444, R 6937, N 7305, total 19704, R +1493
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010.

Renee Schulte's 2010 Democratic opponent, attorney Mark Seidl, was redrawn into the district and is challenging Paulsen. That was one of the few districts where Democrats looked like they were going to play offense. But there was too much defense in 2010 to play any offense, and Seidl fell about 1100 votes short.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Paulsen for State House Committee, Seidl for State Representative Seidl has $21,313.45 on hand. Not bad for one candidate seeking one seat. But Mr. Speaker has $319,847.68 in the bank to use where needed to try to keep 51 seats.

House District 68
Registration: D 6363, R 6066, N 7556, total 20011, D +297
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Just five years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... as a Democrat.

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. Wagner had lost to Swati Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin. He came back to win the open seat race in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010.

Marion used to be a District Draws Itself seat. But for the first time this census, Marion is larger than a House district. The most Republican part of town is now in Paulsen's district. Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south, picking up Bertram, and Ely. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Lundby for Iowa House, Nick Wagner for State House Wagner has a money edge, but not by a lot, with $23,734.56. Lundby has a healthy $17,512.18.

Senate District 34, House District 67 & 68: District of the Day 1 - 6/09/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

Shannon Chair Nominated in SD34

As expected - since no one else had thrown their hat in the ring - Linn County Republicans in Senate District 34 replaced neo-secessionist Randi-Kaye: Shannon on the ballot with her former campaign chair, Ryan Flood.

Shannon withdrew from the race against Senator Liz Mathis last month and announced she had been "selected" as "united States Senator in the Republic of the united States of America."

Flood, most recently reported as living and working in Texas, plead ignorance last night, telling Kevin Hall of TheIowaRepublican:

“I actually didn’t really know about that until it was on the news,” Flood said. “I was down in Texas and she asked me to come up and help her out. I knew she was trying to get some paperwork done at the last second, so it doesn’t surprise me that she put me on there.”

Though the district has a Republican registration advantage, "a victory by Flood in November is highly unlikely," Hall writes."There are well known Republicans in Senate District 34 who could have given Mathis a decent challenge this year. Despite efforts to recruit other candidates, both before the June primary and after Shannon’s mind-boggling departure, no one other than Ryan Flood was interested in the seat."

But at least  he's another Ron Paul/Campaign for Liberty type, which should make A.J. Spiker and the crowd running the state central committee happy. The GOP can also go back to bragging about having a candidate on the ballot in all 26 Senate races. (Democrats have left four Senate seats, all heavily Republican, unchallenged.)

Mathis, for her part, spent yesterday in Black Hawk County campaigning with Senate colleague Jeff Danielson. The newest legislator is a popular fund-raiser guest for other candidates, and she shouldn't have to slow down much on that as she swats away this challenge.

In the night's other convention, also in Linn County, Republicans picked business owner Lance Lefebure to challenge Rep. Todd Taylor in solidly Democratic House District 70. In contrast to Flood, Lefebure has left few political footprints and on paper looks like he might have been a decent candidate for a more rural district. His business produces high-end GPS equipment designed for ag use. Taylor's turf stretches out into the county, to Fairfax, for the first time, but is still essentially an urban Cedar Rapids seat.

Republicans have two more conventions scheduled this week. Thursday they meet in House District 90. No name has emerged to oppose incumbent Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport. Friday the GOP is expected to nominate Jim Steffen to oppose Rep. Jerry Kearns, D- Ft. Madison. Both seats are heavily Democratic.

Un-Convention-al Wisdom

It's nominating convention season, as the August 17 legislative filing deadline approaches and the parties take their last opportunities to fill the gaps on the ballot.

Most late starting nominated at convention candidates are Some Dudes, like I was when I went that route, and few if any win. But four current House freshmen, which must be a record, were convention nominees:

• Democrat Dan Kelley was the replacement nominee when incumbent Paul Bell died;
• Democrat Dan Muhlbauer was nominated after the original nominee dropped out;
• Republican Bob Hager just got started late;
• and Republican Brian Moore lost a Senate primary - a DEMOCRATIC Senate primary - before switching teams and winning the upset of the year.

Both parties have convention activity to report, both in districts that strongly favor the other team.

In Senate District 40, Democrats have nominated Pella school board member Tim Tripp. Technically this is a Democratic held seat; Oskaloosa incumbent Tom Rielly announced his retirement days before the filing deadline in March. But the lines have changed so radically it's difficult to even call this "Rielly's" district, and it's now the seventh most Republican seat in the state. Tripp, an attorney, has an uphill race against Mahaska County supervisor Ken Rozenboom, but looks like a credible candidate.

That's more than we can say about the Republican candidate in House District 33 -- because we don't have a name yet. Nevertheless, RPI chair A.J. Spiker has called a convention for August 1, and you don't do that without a candidate. House 33 is the solidly Democratic turf of House Democratic leader Kevin McCarthy. I'm thinking this is less about winning and more about trying to keep McCarthy at least a little bit occupied on his home front and a little bit distracted from helping his other candidates.

I haven't seen Chairman Spiker calling a convention yet in Senate District 34 to replace "united States Senator" Randi-Kaye: Shannon on the ballot. And that's after they tut-tutted at us Democrats last spring for not running a sacrificial lamb against, say, Randy Feenstra in Sioux County, while they bragged so much about having a Senate candidate in EVERY race. Obviously, quality control was not one of their bigger concerns.

Like I said: you don't call a convention without a candidate, and sometimes you're better off without one. In this case, that may be especially true: the only name to emerge so far in SD34 is Ryan Flood, the guy who was chairing Shannon's campaign.

Cindy Golding, Call Your Realtor

Iowa's newest legislator, Senator Liz Mathis, has been really lucky in her short political career.

The ex-TV anchor was a star recruit for Iowa Democrats when Terry Branstad rolled the dice for a shot at a tied Senate last year. The GOP helped by nominating party activist and former defeated candidate Cindy Golding over two stronger contenders (one of whom Branstad had recruited), but Mathis and the Dems left nothing to chance and worked hard for a solid win.

But that was just for the last session of Swati Dandekar's term, so Mathis has to run again this year (on revised, more favorable turf.) The only Republican to file last March was Randi Shannon, who at first glance seemed to be just a garden variety, tea party Ron Paul type.

But it seems there was a lot more crazy to Shannon than we thought. She dropped out of the race Friday because she, um.... got a better offer?

Therefore, in order to affect the most good on behalf of The People of Iowa’s 34th District and in keeping with my conscience, I have accepted the position of U.S. Senator in The Republic of The United States of America, where I may better serve You and All of The People of Iowa. I want you to know I have taken an Oath to Uphold, Support and Defend The Constitution of The United States of America. This I will do to the best of my ability, So Help Me God.

Yeah. And I'm the sheriff of Aspen, Colorado. But wait! There's Legal Reasoning, or at least a bunch of words on paper:

Let me now announce to everyone in Iowa, I have become aware of the existence of the Original Republic for The United States of America.“We the People” re-inhabited our lawful de jure (de jur- “by right of lawful establishment”) government on March 30th, 2010. This is The Republic founded in 1787 and then abandoned during The Civil War in the 1860s. It was then replaced in 1871 by the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. (de facto-without law). This Unlawful Corporate Democracy, established by the forty-first congress, has been acting as though it is the “official government” which clearly it is not! In point of fact, it is the reason why “We the People” Instead of Experiencing Freedom and Prosperity, suffer under the weight of Oppressive Statutes and an Out of Control, Monstrous National Debt which is Robbing Us and All Future Generations of Americans of Our Treasure and Our Legacy for which Our Founding Fathers’ so Valiantly Fought and Died. And Remember This! Where the de jure Republic of The United States of America exists the de facto UNITED STATES CORPORATION, having no standing, must go away!

Now, knowing this, and with the best interests of The People of Iowa District 34 uppermost in my heart and out of respect for my own conscience, I am here to announce that I am ending my campaign as of this July 4th, 2012. Trust me this story does not end here nor does my commitment. In fact, my level of service to the good people of Iowa who have been so supportive of me and my campaign will be greatly increased. Please allow me to continue, because I have some great news to share with all of you!

Nope never had this one pegged as a full-blown "sovereign citizen" militia type. And an obscure branch of said movement, yet. This dropout may be the biggest news coverage the "Republic of the United States of America" has ever gotten.

Iowa's political and journalism community is trying really hard to deal with Shannon's "promotion" while keeping a straight face. All this makes for the funniest political story since... oh, I guess Thaddeus McCotter only resigned last week but still pretty funny.

The funniest thing is that, on paper, this actually HELPS the Republicans by allowing then to nominate a less crazy candidate before the August 17 deadline. But before they can do that, Shannon has to notify the Secretary of State of the actual Iowa government that she's quitting. But... wouldn't that mean she's recognizing the state? Help, I'm caught in a Mobius strip of legal illogic here.

But whoever Linn County Republicans do pick gets a late start. Golding doesn't live in the new district, a point that was an issue in last year's special. And if one of the other serious Republicans had thought they stood a chance against Mathis, they would have filed in March and easily dispatched Shannon in the primary.

Don't look for this race to move up the charts, though Republicans can at least be relieved that they're spared from further embarrassment from Shannon.

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 34, Iowa House District 67 & 68

Senate District 34
Registration: D 12855, R 14159, N 16582, total 43648, R +1304
Incumbent: Liz Mathis, D-Cedar Rapids

It was a genius move by Terry Branstad: since he was required to name a Democrat to the state utility board anyway, he went to the Senate and picked Marion senator Swati Dandekar. The special election win would have tied the Senate and changed the game.

But then Republicans split at convention and rejected Branstad's preferred choice, while Democrats scored a candidate recruiting coup with a 100 percent name ID former TV anchor. The Battle of Marion was probably over as soon as Liz Mathis entered the race, but Democrats worked like it wasn't and pulled off a relatively comfortable win.

The changes in the district lines were a bit of an issue in the special election. Mathis lives inside both old Senate 18 and new Senate 34. Republican Cindy Golding, however, lives in new Senate 48 and said she would run for re-election there if she won the special. (She eventually decided not to run.)

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House District size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

The special election was probably the Republican's best shot at beating Mathis. Their candidate this year, Randi Shannon of Cedar Rapids, is playing all the usual Constitutional Limited Government tea party cards and looks like a self-starter.

House District 67
Registration: D 6016, R 7537, N 8157, total 21733, R +1521
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010.

Renee Schulte's 2010 Democratic opponent, attorney Mark Seidl, was redrawn into the district and is challenging Paulsen. That was one of the few districts where Democrats looked like they were going to play offense. But there was too much defense in 2010 to play any offense, and Seidl fell about 1100 votes short.

The Paulsen for State House Committee has a whopping $215,580 in the bank on the January 19 report, but most of that is no doubt meant for his team's targeted races. Seidl for State Representative had $20,359, making him one of the best financed challenger candidates.

House District 68
Registration: D 6839, R 6622, N 8425, total 21915, D +217
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Just five years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... as a Democrat.

“The Republican Party and the people I was supporting no longer placed the best interests of Iowa and its voters before their own party agenda.”" said Daniel Lundby in his press release.

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. (She had planned to run for the Board of Supervisors, but cancer that had been in remission returned and she passed away in early 2009.) Wagner had lost to Swati Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win the open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.

The district no longer includes all of Marion, which for the first time this census is larger than a House district. The most Republican part of town is now in speaker Kraig Paulsen's district. Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Nick Wagner for State House had a lead on the January 19 finance report, with $16,060 cash on hand to Lundby for Iowa House's $7592.

Original post 6/09/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Day 11 of Filing

Friday night's big news was Wilton Republican Jeff Kaufmann announcing he was not seeking re-election in House District 73. Today, we got the follow-up the rumor mill had told us about: son Bobby Kaufmann, 26, will run in dad's seat. He'll face the winner of the Democratic primary between Dick Schwab of Solon and David Johnson of West Branch.

Another son of a legislator filed today in a very different story. Daniel Lundby of Marion is the son of the late Mary Lundby, former Senate Republican leader. But Daniel filed as a Democrat. It's a symbolically powerful statement about the end of Mary Lundby's brand of pragmatic moderation, as Daniel hopes to take the House seat she once held, now District 68, from Republican Nick Wagner.

There may be another last-second retirement. We have two filings in Warren County's House District 26. Neither of them is the incumbent, tea partier Glen Massie. There was talk Massie might pull a Pearson and quit after a single term, and now that I think about it I don't remember seeing an actual Massie announcement... The two who filed today are Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic) Steve McCoy and Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman.

Republican Andrew Wilson of Burlington appears to be Some Dude, but that's more opposition than Dennis Cohoon usually gets in solidly Democratic House 87.

Dubuque Republican Paul Kern gave then-speaker Pat Murphy a scare at the polls in 2010; Kern is back for another try in House 99

Also news to me, though apparently she's all over the web: Cedar Rapids Republican Randi Shannon filed in Senate District 34, now held by Democrat Liz Mathis.

And Republican Brian Cook of Manchester files in no-incumbent Senate District 48. He has a primary with Dan Zumbach; winner sees Rep. Nate Willems, D-Lisbon, in November.

In the overlapping House seat, House District 95, Center Point Republican Quentin Stanerson files.

In filings we already expected, two more Republican candidates file in This Is Where Your District Went, House 37: John Landon and Stacey Rogers. That brings the total filed to four in the more Republican of the two Ankeny seats.

In the other Ankeny seat, Democrat John Phoenix filed in House District 38. He's challenging GOP incumbent Kevin Koester, who also filed today, in a swing seat.

Democrat now officially have a three way primary in open House District 36 as William Rock files. He has my favorite committee name: Citizens For Rock. Sounds like a lost Tenacious D track. The other Dems are Marti Anderson and Cara Kennedy-Ode; winner is a heavy November favorite.

In no-incumbent Senate District 4, Democrat Bob Jennings filed; the GOP has a primary between Dennis Guth and former senator Jim Black.

Democrat Steve Bomgaars filed in no-incumbent Huse District 2, where he'll face the winner of a GOP primary between Megan Hess and Josh Davenport.

Both announced Republicans filed in House District 55, held by Democrat Roger Thomas. Spillville mayor Michael Klimesh, who lost a 2010 race, will face Dustin Noble of Decorah in the primary.

Non-filing news: Shelley Parbs of Urbana is the second Democrat to announce in Senate District 38, joining LaForest Sherman (who filed today). The winner faces GOP incumbent Tim Kapucian in a much-changed swing seat. Bleeding Heartland has a good look.

Lee Harder (the article gets his name wrong) of Hillsboro is the second Republican to announce in open Senate District 42 (the Gene Fraise seat). Harder finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary. Lee County supervisor Larry Kruse announced before Fraise retired; the Democrats have a three-way primary.

Routine Incumbents filing today:

Tom Courtney, D-Burlington, in Senate District 44

Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, D-Ames in House District 45

Lisa Heddens, D-Ames in House District 46

Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada in House District 49

Josh Byrnes, R-Osage in House District 51

Walt Rogers, R-Cedar Falls in House District 60

Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids in House District 66

House speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha in House District 67

Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk in House District 83

Tom Sands, R-Wapello in House District 88

And oh yeah, someone named Vilsack.

Liz Mathis Likely Democrat in Senate 18

Liz Mathis Likely Democrat in Senate 18
Oleson squeezed out?

This started percolating through the rumor mill yesterday, now Todd Dorman has it public:

Democrats are trying to stay mum, although it appears that former KCRG and KWWL anchor Liz Mathis will be their candidate. No announcement has been made, and the formal nominating convention is Saturday.

UPDATE: Official announcement from Iowa Democratic Party came at 1:35.

“People all over are trying to get back on their feet from this lingering national recession,” Mathis said. “They need jobs and they need stability for their families, and all we’re getting from our government is gridlock. It must change. I pledge to work with Democratic and Republican legislators and Governor Branstad to make a difference for the people in District 18.”

Mathis added: “We need new policies that will help our Main Street businesses thrive, bring in business and spur job growth in our local communities. My husband and I have experienced that first-hand in our family’s business. That’s one of many reasons I’m running. We also need to stop short-changing our educational system and we need to address support of our area’s most vulnerable children who are affected by poverty and neglect. I am passionate about those things.”

Mathis left channel 9 in mid-2007 and is now listed as Chief Information Officer at Four Oaks in Cedar Rapids. She lives in Robins, which is both in the old Senate District 18 where the November 8 special will be held and in the new Senate District 34 where next year's election will be held.

Following Dorman's post, the IDP officially announced the convention for Wednesday the 28th in Hiawatha, "following the Linn County Democrats’ Central Committee meeting." Eligible convention voters are "precinct committee people from Senate District 18 who were duly elected at the 2010 precinct caucuses or the precinct committee persons who have been duly elected by the Linn county Democratic central committee since the 2010 precinct caucuses." That includes people duly elected to vacancies at the central committee meeting immediately before the convention.

There's still no word from Mathis herself, but the rumors seem reliable. That would give Democrats a candidate with near-100% name ID in a swing district. It's hard not to draw the parallel with Tami Wiencek, the former KWWL anchor who was probably the only Republican to knock off a Democratic incumbent in 2006, in a solidly Democratic Waterloo House seat. So that can get you in the door, but not necessarily keep you there, as Weincek lost in `08.

Also of interest in Dorman's post:

When word of Dandekar’s departure broke, one of the first names I thought of was Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, who represents much of Senate 18, including Marion, and was chief of staff to Mary Lundby, who represented Marion in the state senate for 14 years.

But Oleson said he was contacted by several Republican leaders/activists in Des Moines who informed him in no uncertain terms that his candidacy would not be warmly received. Do not run was the message. He didn’t name names.

“They said I wouldn’t get past the convention because of my support for (Project Labor Agreements) and the marriage amendment issue,” Oleson said. “They want someone without a record.”

The denials and accusations are already popping up in the comments. Dorman, a district resident, has been the go-to guy in the straight press so far this race.

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

Senate District 34

Registration: D 12637, R 13206, N 15441, total 41336, R+ 569
Incumbent: Swati Dandekar, D-Marion Liz Mathis, D-Robins

UPDATE Entire fall of 2011: I'm sure you know the story.

Dandekar has won national attention as the first woman of South Asian descent in American elected office (take that, Nikki Haley). Her heritage was the subject of whisper campaigns in her first House race in 2002, but once emailed smoking guns surfaced, Republicans had little choice but to scuttle their own candidate. Dandekar, who seemed to be ahead before the nastiness went above ground, became the first Democrat to win the Marion House seat in decades. She's had close races but held on, moving up to the Senate when Republican Mary Lundby stepped down in poor health in 2008. (Lundby had intended to run for the Board of Supervisors in a new district system that kicked in that year, but left that race and passed away just days after her Senate term officially expired.)

Dandekar is up in 2012. Any Democrat in a swingy seat with two GOP House members has to worry a bit, but Dandekar has cut a moderate profile and drawn some bipartisan support, much as Lundby did.

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House district size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

House District 67

Registration: D 5803, R 6916, N 7570, total 20312, R+ 1113
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

And the speaker gets to represent all four of those cities. Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. (Most of that goes into open House 95, where Democratic incumbent  Nate Willems is running for Senate instead.) Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration, which combined with his stature as speaker should leave him time to help other folks.

UPDATE July 22: Democrat Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into this district and will challenge Paulsen.

House District 68

Registration: D 6834, R 6290, N 7871, total 21024, D +544
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Wagner lost to Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win a top tier open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. But to use a sports analogy it was kind of a sacrifice fly; the Dems gave up Dandekar's House seat to take the Senate seat. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map