District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 4, Iowa House District 7 & 8

Senate District 4
Registration: D 10826, R 14999, N 15189, total 41024, R +4173
No Incumbent

Last summer I was laughing at Tea Partier Dennis Guth, who seemingly hadn't gotten the message that this open, five county (Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock, Emmett and Wright) seat was supposed to be Stu Iverson's route back to the Senate. After reading about one of his early appearances, I thought Guth was the comic relief contender:

Guth joined the campaign to unseat three Supreme Court justices - a campaign that was successful in last November's justice retention vote.

"I was very pleased that God allowed us to do that," Guth said.

Addressing a question about preschools, Guth said mothers should be staying home to care for their children, not sending them to preschool.

Guth stressed his strong support of the Second Amendment, saying he has a permit to carry a concealed weapon.

Guth criticized government mandates such as mental health. "I don't think we need to be mandating things that we don't support," he said.

The joke's on me. Not only did Iverson not even run, but the candidate he and Terry Branstad backed, former Senator Jim Black, lost to Guth in the primary, 52-47%. So the guy who's both "against mental health" AND is carrying a concealed weapon is the Republican nominee in a pretty good Republican district.

Democrats are well positioned to take advantage of the Republican's questionable choice. Bob Jennings of Algona is information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. Despite the unfavorable turf - this is the third toughest seat Democrats are contesting this year -  this is one to watch.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Bob Jennings Committee To Elect For State Senate, Guth for Senate Jennings had $4,213.49 on hand. Guth, coming out of a contested primary, had $3,796.08. Looks like this race would be a cheap investment.

House District 7
Registration: D 5948, R 6710, N 8184, total 20849, R +762
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. He beat Mark Frakes in the primary, 56-44%.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Gassman for House, Wittneben for State Representative Wittneben has $3,845.66 on hand, not much for an incumbent, yet he has the edge. Gassman had just $1,032.59 on hand, only raised $630 post-primary, and has $3750 in outstanding loans.

House District 8
Registration: D 4879, R 8290, N 7015, total 20187, R +3411
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner, unopposed

Like the Senate race, this one turned out weird. District 8 was the only three-incumbent seat on Map Day, and septuagenarian Rayhons looked like the odd man out between Iverson and majority leader Linda Upmeyer.

But Iverson stood down after a one-term return; in retrospect, it looks like his job was simply to knock off Democrat McKinley Bailey in 2010.  Upmeyer moved, and so Rayhons was left standing.

Rayhons nevertheless got a primary, from minister Bob Dishman, but won by a fairly solid 58-42% margin. And that was the ball game, with no Democrat running.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Rayhons for Representative

Senate District 4, House District 7 & 8: District of the Day 1 - 4/28/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

A Ticket in a Primary?

Estherville Daily News item:

Dennis Guth of Klemme, who is running for the Iowa Senate District 4 Seat and Ted Gassman of Scarville, who is running for the Iowa House District 7 seat will be holding get acquainted meetings with citizens on Thursday, March 29.

Both candidates will be at McDonald's in Estherville at 9 a.m. and at the Senior Citizens Center on the east side of Main Street in Armstrong at 7 p.m.

What's interesting here is that both of these guys are in contested Republican primaries.

Guth was the first Republican to announce, but he's been joined in the race by former senator Jim "Back In" Black, who served one year -- not one term, one YEAR -- in 1997 before resigning. Guth has a Tea Party rhetorical style, while Black appears to be Terry Branstad's recruit in this no-incumbent seat. The winner will run against Democrat Bob Jennings.

Gassman -- who spells his first nickname Tedd on the ballot -- faces Mark Frakes of Forest City for the right to take on freshman Democrat John Wittneben. The rhetorical lines aren't as clear here, but my bet is the alliance with Guth means Gassman is the hard right guy.

Keep an eye on the other half of the district, House 8. Incumbent Henry Rayhons is getting challenged from the right by minister Bob Dishman, and if he allies with Guth we have full-blown factional fighting in a five county area...

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 4, Iowa House District 7 & 8

Senate District 4
Registration: D 12120, R 15462, N 17680, total 45274, R +3342
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary

Well, this one hasn't turned out at all like I thought. We've got a former Senator making a comeback, sure--but not the one we expected.

Everyone assumed from Map Day forward that this was Stew Iverson's path back to the Senate. Instead, we have an unlikely comeback from Jim Black, who served just one session, 1997, before abruptly resigning "citing family troubles." Recently Black said that the resignation was part of a court agreement in his divorce, in order to keep custody of his children. Iverson is Black's campaign chair.

The turf is actually quite similar to Black's old seat. It covers five whole counties, and four are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. Emmett replaces Humboldt. No one these counties dominates the district.

Black faces a primary against Tea partier Dennis Guth, who has a distinctive rhetorical flair but, surprisingly, has outraised Black. Dennis Guth for Senate reported $7435 cash on hand on January 19, while Jim Black for Iowa Senate Committee had just $3908, and more than half of that is from the candidate. (Thurman Gaskill, who took over for Black in the 1997 Senate special and served through 2008, chipped in $100 for Black.)

By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP. Yet Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings of Algona, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. But Jennings' committee had just $275 in the bank on the January 19 report date.

House District 7
Registration: D 6632, R 6799, N 9443, total 22882, R +167
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville; contested Republican primary

Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

At least two Republicans see an opportunity here. Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. Mark Frakes of Forest City is a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot. The Committee to Elect Mark Frakes has $2008 in the bank; Gassman got a later start and had just opened an account with $25 at the January 19 report deadline. Wittneben for State Representative had $2526 on hand, but incumbent protection is always the highest priority for a party, so he'll get help from Des Moines when the time comes.

House District 8
Registration: D 5488, R 8663, N 8237, total 22392, R +3175
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner (Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner moving, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, retiring) - primary challenge

Who would have thought that, when he got drawn together with the House majority leader and the former Senate GOP leader in the state's only redistricting triple-up, that 75 year old Henry Rayhons would be the one left standing in this district? Or that the seat might end up in the hands of a primary challenger?

This seat is centered on Hancock County, mutual home base for both Rayhons and Upmeyer. Rayhons' old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is where Upmeyer is moving to run in open House 54. Rayhons' new seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

But Rayhons isn't home free. No Democrats yet, but he's got a primary challenger, Rev. Bob Dishman.

"The goal should be a smaller, more efficient government and that's what I intend to accomplish," said Dishman, pastor of Park Church of Christ in Goldfield. He said he will focus on conservative values that include supporting pro-life issues and traditional marriage in Iowa.

And Rayhons, while a pretty conservative guy, was on the "wrong" side of that 2011 vote I use for my scorecard, Pearson's Total Abortion Ban.

Fundraising has started slow but Dishman for State House has more cash on hand, $744, than Rayhons for Representative's $348; Rayhons has raised more and spent more.

Original post 4/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Back in Black: One Year Senator Makes Comeback

Back in Black: One Year Senator Makes Comeback

I had this one WRONG! but so did everyone else:

Jim Black, a former senator, announced this morning that he is running again for the Senate.

Black, 51, a Republican, is running for the newly created Senate District 4, which includes Emmet, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright Counties in northern Iowa. After this year’s redistricting, no incumbent was left in the district.

B-b-b-b-but, hasn't everyone assumed since Map Day that this was Stew's path back to the Senate?

Rep. Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, will work as Black’s campaign chairman...

I see. So presumably he stays and runs in House District 8 demoinesdem reminds me that Henry Rayhons has already announced in the once tripled-up HD08. So now I'm more confused.

...and Black has also received encouragement from Gov. Terry Branstad, a long-time friend, according to today’s press release.

New Senate 4 is in fact very similar to the turf Black held for one year, 1997, before abruptly resigning "after his first year in office, citing family troubles." Or perhaps Terry Branstad gave him a job.



Four counties are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. In the new seat, Emmett replaces Humboldt. (This area also includes Branstad's original home stomping grounds.)

Black may face a primary from Tea partier Dennis Guth, who should bring a lot of comic relief to the race. Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities and is a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona.

By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP, with a registration lead of 2700. Last map, this area was split between retiring Democrat Jack Kibbie and Republicans Rob Bacon (now making a Senate to House move) and Merlin Bartz.

Rayhons running for re-election

Rayhons running for re-election

Here's one no one figured would happen on Map Day: the guy left standing in the state's only tripled-up legislative district is... Henry Rayhons?!?

The 75 year old Republican legislator has announced for re-election in House District 8.

That seems to complete the musical chairs in the district, which includes all of Hancock and Wright counties and part of Kossuth and has a comfortable GOP edge. House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has announced her move to House District 54.

The third Republican representative, Stew Iverson, has not announced his plans but is universally assumed to be running in open Senate District 4. Two other SD04 candidates have announced: Democrat Bob Jennings and tea partyish Republican Dennis Guth.

Another legislative announcement: GOP freshman Josh Byrnes is running for a second term in House District 51, which changes a lot and has just a narrow GOP edge. Byrnes won an open seat when Democrat Mark Kuhn stepped down.

Aside on Wisconsin: Taking two seats from the other party ain't a "loss."

Dems Have Senate 4 Candidate

Democrat Bob Jennings announces in Open Senate District 4

Democrats have recruited a candidate with strong community ties in empty Senate District 4.

Bob Jennings of Algona sports a good profile for a sprawling small town and rural north Iowa district with five whole counties (Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright):

Jennings, 50, is information director for Algona Municipal Utilities and is a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona.

He is on the Iowa Lakes Community College board of trustees and is a former president of the Algona Chamber of Commerce.

Is that enough to overcome a GOP registration edge of 2700? Well, some of this turf was Jack Kibbie's for a very long time. The rest of it belonged to Republicans Merlin Bartz and Rob Bacon last map. All three of them got paired up in other directions, with Kibbie retiring and the other two not yet announced.

The Republicans have one announced candidate, Tea partier Dennis Guth, who should being a lot of comic relief to the race. But the likely, not yet announced, Republican candidate is Stewart Iverson, who was part of the triple-up in the House District 8 half of this district (now just a double-up with Linda Upmeyer moving out). WRONG!

Saturday Morning Funnies

Saturday Morning Funnies

Get your cereal, we have a good one this morning. Tea partier Dennis Guth has announced in Senate District 4 and so far he's our leading contender for the Nobel Unintentional Humor Prize for Campaign 2012:

Guth criticized government mandates such as mental health. "I don't think we need to be mandating things that we don't support," he said.

Like that great line from Charlie Wilson's War: "The Ethics Committee?!? Well, Jesus, Donnelly. Everyone in town knows I'm on the other side of that issue."

"Guth stressed his strong support of the Second Amendment, saying he has a permit to carry a concealed weapon." So he's armed and against mental health.

There's more: "Addressing a question about preschools, Guth said mothers should be staying home to care for their children, not sending them to preschool."

The no-incumbent Senate 4, of course, is where Stewart Iverson is expected to run. But there's no announcement yet. A GOP primary would make for some good entertainment. But be careful at the debate, Stew, Dennis may be packin'.

---

In less crazy news, yet another Democrat is on the comeback trail. Art Staed of Cedar Rapids, who won one term in 2006 before losing to Renee Schulte by 13 votes in 2008, has announced in House 66. Changes to the turf make it more Democratic.

This will be Staed's fourth run; he lost to Jeff Elgin in 2004. He took 2010 off. Democrats thought they had a good shot against Schulte with attorney Mark Seidl but Schulte won solidly.

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8



Senate District 4

Registration: D 11,890, R 14,602, N 15,880, total 42,381, R+ 2712
No Incumbent

Five whole counties- Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright-with no senators. This turf was split between Jack Kibbie, Merlin Bartz, and Rob Bacon in the old map. No one county dominates geographically as all are of similar size, between 10,000 and 16,000 population in a 61,000 body district. That's a lot of parades.

Last year Bacon knocked off Democrat Rich Olive, who won in 2006 when Stew Iverson quit his re-elect race after being deposed as Senate Republican leader. Iverson, of course, made a comeback last year when he defeated Six Pack Democrat McKinley Bailey in a Wright-Hamilton district.

Iverson is part of the triple-up in House 8 (see below) which is partially resolved by his likely run in this seat. There's not a lot of overlap between new senate 4 and the old Senate 5 that he held. Wright is the south end of the new seat that borders Minnesota. The old one went south from Wright instead, through Hamilton, wrapped around Ames to take in most of geographic Story, and ended way down at the Polk County line. The old seat was a few hundred voters more Republican, but Olive still managed to squeak through by 61 votes in a Democratic landslide year.

House District 7

Registration: D 6526, R 6405, N 8514, total 21,450, D+ 121
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Day Four and finally our first House Democrat. Wittneben was one of the D's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

House District 8

Registration: D 5364, R 8197, N 7366, total 20931, R+ 2833

Incumbents: Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, and Henry Rayhons, R-Garner

UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move to House 54.

UPDATE August 10: Rayhons staying and running.

For a few hours on March 31, it looked like this was the seat that could have scuttled the whole plan. With Upmeyer and Rayhons both carrying Garner addresses, it would have been hard for the map geeks to keep them apart; Iverson was just one more wrench in the works.

Early reports were that Upmeyer would be the one who stayed, but now it seems she's looking at open House 54 to the north. Rayhons is 75 and was pegged as a retirement, but if Upmeyer does move he could stick around. Iowa Politics offered a good summary on April 20:

Upmeyer has said she might move from her longtime farm in Garner to a condominium in the Clear Lake area. But if she doesn’t, Rayhons said he’ll retire instead of running against his fellow Republican.

“It’s going to all depend on what Representative Upmeyer does,” Rayhons told IowaPolitics.com. “I would guess that I would probably run for that House seat if Representative Upmeyer decides to move. However, I will not interject if Representative Upmeyer stays where she is and wants the seat. I would quit the Legislature, probably.”

As for Iverson, speculation is that he might run for a state Senate seat that’s vacant due to redistricting. Iverson is a former Senate majority leader. However, he said Tuesday that he hadn’t made up his mind on his political future.

“I have absolutely made no decisions yet,” Iverson said. “The House district looks pretty good. The Senate district looks pretty good. There happens to be three Republicans in the House district. Representative Upmeyer, Representative Rayhons and I have not sat down. We have not talked about anything. I have to tell you, I’ve made no decisions yet whatsoever, and I probably won’t make a decision until next fall.”

However, Iverson is sure about one thing.

“I am not moving,” he said.

If Upmeyer stays she gets a slightly more Republican district. She'd lose Winnebago and Worth to the north and east. This seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

Rayhon's old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is specifically where Upmeyer is taking about moving. Open House 54 could also have been the escape route for Annette Sweeney, who drew the short straw in the pair with Pat Grassley. But it's starting to look like she drew the short straw here, too.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map