Monday, March 17, 2014

Kajtazovic first with mailer in 1st CD

Anesa Kajtazovic looks like the first candidate in the five-way Democratic primary in the 1st CD to land with a broad-based direct mail piece.

Two separate pieces started landing in 1st District mailboxes: a broad introductory piece ("From a war-torn nightmare to fighting for the middle class American dream," with pictures of bombed-out Sarajevo, Bosnia included) and a "mom" piece in which Hadzira Kajtozovic takes on the job of introducing her daughter the candidate.

 Both pieces hit the same three issue bullet points:
  • "Fight for Social Security, Medicare, and fairness for middle class seniors" 
  • An immediate minimum wage increase to over $10 an hour 
  • and "Oppose the Republican War on Women and fight for pay equality."
No word on how much mail went out, but primary electorates are very finite and very predictable universes. When this seat (under quite different lines) was last open in 2006, there were just over 29,000 Democratic primary voters.

There's been no public polling to date in the race. Pat Murphy released an internal poll that showed him ahead but very close to the 35% required for a nomination.

If no one gets 35, the nomination is decided at convention. Kajtazovic locked in most of her home county support at the Black Hawk County convention a week ago, when the convention broke into preference groups. Only  Kajtazovic and Murphy were viable and Kajtazovic claimed about 70% of the delegates.

There's strong sentiment among Iowa Democrats that the state is long overdue to send a woman to Congress. Just today, Smart Politics published a study giving Iowa an F as one of only six state to never send a woman to the House of Representatives. Four of those states have had a female governor or US Senator, leaving just Iowa and Mississippi.

Two other women are in the 1st CD Democratic race, Swati Dandekar and Monica Vernon, but they share the same Linn County home base (along with Dave O'Brien). And Murphy isn't a universally loved candidate; if he were, he would have cleared the field like Bruce Braley did instead of attracting four rivals. If a convention goes to multiple ballots, and Kajtazovic comes in with  a strong showing on ballot one, she looks like a good second choice for Time For A Woman and Anyone But Murphy delegates.

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