Senate District 8
Registration: D 10606, R 10020, N 10720, total 31384, D +586
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
No
race has slid down the charts more than this one. Republicans now seem
content on trying to make Majority Leader Gronstal the Minority Leader,
rather than defeating him outright.
True, Mike got a lucky break
in redistricting, getting the least changed district in the state, one
that includes almost every Democrat in a 50 mile radius.
But the
real failure is in recruitment. Republican Al Ringgenberg has proven to
be a much weaker than expected candidate, especially at fundraising.
July 19 Campaign Finance Reports: Citizens for Gronstal, Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg Ringgenberg's
bank balance is $6,987.91, but there's $2000 in loans out and over
$2500 in bills to be paid. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "I'm
running against Mike Gronstal," and Republican donors would simply ask
"how do you spell your name" as they pulled out checkbooks.
And
mere mortals cannot compete with the champ. Governor Gronstal has a cool
half mill in the bank. $547,158.39 to be precise. And unless
Ringgenberg steps up his game, Mike can ship that all over the state to
Democratic Senate candidates in distress. Remember those low four figure
sums in a few of the other districts?
Sure, in the post-Citizens
United era, money can appear at the last second from no one knows where.
But money follows money, and the players are going to place their bets
on someone who looks like a winner. I'm betting we won't have to worry about calling him Senator Colonel Ringgenberg like a certain Senator Doctor from the other end of the state.
House District 15
Registration: D 5632, R 4282, N 5421, total 15356, D +1350
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 4974, R 5738, N 5299, total 16028, R +764
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs
Where Republicans had a Senate recruiting problem, Democrats struggled with the Council Bluffs House seats.
Former
Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for
Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House
99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a
former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008,
then knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
The two freshmen got paired up, and Hanusa quickly called dibs on the seat they shared, the more Republican
16. Brandenburg, with some apparant reluctance, finally said on February
2 that he was taking the short straw and moving to 15, making made him
the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
Democrats
held both seats briefly in 2004, after Shomshor's special election win
but before Doug Struyk's filing deadline switch to the GOP. Yet the two
house contenders this cycle seem low profile. I see almost nothing
about Brandenburg's opponent, George Warren Yaple. It's even a bit unclear whether he goes by his first or middle name. (UPDATE: I'm informed it's Warren.)
July 19 Campaign Finance Reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, YAPLE FOR IOWA Brandenburg has $15,378.02 on hand. Yaple looks like he just got started post-primary and has $2,614.86.
House 16 saw what looks like both the closest and the lowest turnout contested House primary in the state. Democrat Heidi Guggisberg-Coners topped Ron Pierce by nine votes, 168 to 159, even though she had dropped out of the race. Perhaps that was a boost of confidence as she dropped back in.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa, $12,154.29 on hand, Heidi Guggisberg-Coners for CB 2012 $1,330 (starting from zero at the primary.)
Senate District 8, House District 15 & 16: District of the Day 1 - 5/04/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label George Yaple. Show all posts
Showing posts with label George Yaple. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 8, Iowa House District 15 & 16
Senate District 8
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
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