Senate District 8
Registration: D 10606, R 10020, N 10720, total 31384, D +586
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
No
race has slid down the charts more than this one. Republicans now seem
content on trying to make Majority Leader Gronstal the Minority Leader,
rather than defeating him outright.
True, Mike got a lucky break
in redistricting, getting the least changed district in the state, one
that includes almost every Democrat in a 50 mile radius.
But the
real failure is in recruitment. Republican Al Ringgenberg has proven to
be a much weaker than expected candidate, especially at fundraising.
July 19 Campaign Finance Reports: Citizens for Gronstal, Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg Ringgenberg's
bank balance is $6,987.91, but there's $2000 in loans out and over
$2500 in bills to be paid. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "I'm
running against Mike Gronstal," and Republican donors would simply ask
"how do you spell your name" as they pulled out checkbooks.
And
mere mortals cannot compete with the champ. Governor Gronstal has a cool
half mill in the bank. $547,158.39 to be precise. And unless
Ringgenberg steps up his game, Mike can ship that all over the state to
Democratic Senate candidates in distress. Remember those low four figure
sums in a few of the other districts?
Sure, in the post-Citizens
United era, money can appear at the last second from no one knows where.
But money follows money, and the players are going to place their bets
on someone who looks like a winner. I'm betting we won't have to worry about calling him Senator Colonel Ringgenberg like a certain Senator Doctor from the other end of the state.
House District 15
Registration: D 5632, R 4282, N 5421, total 15356, D +1350
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 4974, R 5738, N 5299, total 16028, R +764
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs
Where Republicans had a Senate recruiting problem, Democrats struggled with the Council Bluffs House seats.
Former
Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for
Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House
99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a
former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008,
then knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
The two freshmen got paired up, and Hanusa quickly called dibs on the seat they shared, the more Republican
16. Brandenburg, with some apparant reluctance, finally said on February
2 that he was taking the short straw and moving to 15, making made him
the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
Democrats
held both seats briefly in 2004, after Shomshor's special election win
but before Doug Struyk's filing deadline switch to the GOP. Yet the two
house contenders this cycle seem low profile. I see almost nothing
about Brandenburg's opponent, George Warren Yaple. It's even a bit unclear whether he goes by his first or middle name. (UPDATE: I'm informed it's Warren.)
July 19 Campaign Finance Reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, YAPLE FOR IOWA Brandenburg has $15,378.02 on hand. Yaple looks like he just got started post-primary and has $2,614.86.
House 16 saw what looks like both the closest and the lowest turnout contested House primary in the state. Democrat Heidi Guggisberg-Coners topped Ron Pierce by nine votes, 168 to 159, even though she had dropped out of the race. Perhaps that was a boost of confidence as she dropped back in.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa, $12,154.29 on hand, Heidi Guggisberg-Coners for CB 2012 $1,330 (starting from zero at the primary.)
Senate District 8, House District 15 & 16: District of the Day 1 - 5/04/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Mary Ann Hanusa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mary Ann Hanusa. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 8, Iowa House District 15 & 16
Senate District 8
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, February 02, 2012
Brandenburg Moves Across Town
State Rep. Mark Brandenburg looks to have drawn the short straw in Council Bluffs. The GOP freshman will move across town and run for re-election in House District 15. This avoids a pair-up with fellow first term Republican Mary Ann Hanusa, who called dibs on House 16 months ago.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. It had a map day registration edge of 2100, as opposed to a narrow GOP edge in 16.
Brandenburg's move appears to resolve the last House pair-up in the state. We started on Map Day with 27 House members in 13 districts (there was one triple-up). With four moves and eight retirements (I've yet to see a Stew Iverson retirement statement but that seems to be the consensus) we're left with just two pairs: The bi-partisan cross-town Sioux City slugfest between Democrat Chris Hall and Republican Jeremy Taylor, and the even more epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney GOP primary.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. It had a map day registration edge of 2100, as opposed to a narrow GOP edge in 16.
Tangent: The Secretary of State now has Feb. 1 voter registration stats posted for the new districts. But an important caveat: Except for the county numbers, the stats are for ALL registrations, not just the Active status registrations. This isn't a Schultz thing; the same thing happened in the Mauro Administration.There's some overlap with the old Brandenburg turf, and he has city-wide name ID. He served on the school board, challenged Mike Gronstal in 2008, and knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in 2010. I still see this as a priority race for both sides, if only because of its neighbors on the ballot: the Gronstal senate race and Latham-Boswell.
People really, really misunderstand Inactive voter status. It's NOT what a phonebanker would call "a weak voting Dem" who votes in presidential years only. It's a person who's had mail returned to sender to the auditor because they've moved. That is: it's people who are GONE. But under Motor Voter it takes two general election cycles to fully cancel them.
Including Inactives in the stats in general 1) overstates the size of urban and college districts. Note that Joe Bolkcom's Senate District 43, which includes the entire UI campus, has by far the highest registration, because of the inactives. 2) It also overstates the no-party percentage. That's because those voters are statistically the most likely to move and the least likely to promptly re-register.)
The other caveat is that counties by law have 45 days to get voter registrations from the caucuses entered, though I suspect most of it is done. There's also going to be a lot of voter card mailing in the next few weeks to inform voters of new districts and precincts, and that usually triggers a lot of registration changes and activity. People who crossed over for a sheriff primary eight years ago find out they're still Democrats, more cards get returned to sender meaning more inactivations, stuff like that.
At some point before legislative filing starts I'm going to try to figure out what numbers to use for the rest of the year and stick with them.
Brandenburg's move appears to resolve the last House pair-up in the state. We started on Map Day with 27 House members in 13 districts (there was one triple-up). With four moves and eight retirements (I've yet to see a Stew Iverson retirement statement but that seems to be the consensus) we're left with just two pairs: The bi-partisan cross-town Sioux City slugfest between Democrat Chris Hall and Republican Jeremy Taylor, and the even more epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney GOP primary.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Hanusa Stays Put In Pair-Up
Hanusa Stays Put In Council Bluffs Pair-Up
Half an answer in Council Bluffs as first term Republican Mary Ann Hanusa announces she's running for re-election in House District 16.
Hanusa is paired up with fellow GOP freshman Mark Brandenburg, who hasn't announced his plans:
Hanusa, a White House staffer under Bush 43, was the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006. She beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans when party switcher Doug Struyk retired. Brandenburg knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100, and had some health issues during the session.
Brandenburg and Hanusa both voted against The Map, Officially because it moved Pottawattamie County out of Steve King's district and into what became the Boswell-Latham mashup.
I'd speculated that one of the two might make the run against Mike Gronstal, which Brandenburg did unsuccessfully in 2008. But PottCo Republicans have recruited Al Ringgenberg instead, even going so far as to make an endorsement nearly a year before the primary.
Half an answer in Council Bluffs as first term Republican Mary Ann Hanusa announces she's running for re-election in House District 16.
Hanusa is paired up with fellow GOP freshman Mark Brandenburg, who hasn't announced his plans:
Hanusa's decision means Brandenburg, should he decide to seek re-election, would either have to face Hanusa in a Republican primary next year or move into the other Council Bluffs district, newly formed District 15.House 16 is the southern and more Republican (reg edge +228 as of April) of the two seats, though still swingy. House 15 has no incumbent and is a Democratic (+2100) seat containing all the city's best Democratic precincts. (The city's split last decade was more of an east-west.)
"It's a serious decision," Brandenburg said. "It's not that easy. We've been here for 12 years."
Hanusa, a White House staffer under Bush 43, was the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006. She beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans when party switcher Doug Struyk retired. Brandenburg knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100, and had some health issues during the session.
Brandenburg and Hanusa both voted against The Map, Officially because it moved Pottawattamie County out of Steve King's district and into what became the Boswell-Latham mashup.
I'd speculated that one of the two might make the run against Mike Gronstal, which Brandenburg did unsuccessfully in 2008. But PottCo Republicans have recruited Al Ringgenberg instead, even going so far as to make an endorsement nearly a year before the primary.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 8, House District 15 and 16
District of the Day: Senate District 8, House District 15 and 16
Senate District 8
Registration: D 11,461, R 9,589, N 11,141, total 32,225, D + 1872
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Nobody, nobody, nobody hates this map more than the Pottawattamie County Republicans. They're drawn out of Steve King's district, the two Council Bluffs GOP House members get paired, and the empty district is solidly Democratic.
But worst of all, their nemesis, Senator Mike Gronstal, the only man standing in the way of Total Republican Trifecta Dominance in Iowa, gets the least changed district in the state. Barring some minor annexation that doesn't show at the scale of the maps, it looks to be exactly, yes, EXACTLY the same. The rules say to keep cities together when you can, and Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace.
Republicans would love to have connected Mike's house to the vast angry mobs of nearby Republicans. Gronstal lives in the new House District 16 half of his Senate turf, the generally southern part of town which has a very slim Republican registration edge.
"Even using these squeaky clean Iowa districts, it's easy to see how you could screw Gronstal," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "You just switch the House districts around."
"All I gotta do is take a little piece of Lewis Township south of Council Bluffs to use for connective tissue," said Mandering, a wicked gleam in his eye as he said "connective tissue."
"That ain't even nuthin' creative like a median strip or a piece of Nebraska. Then I connect Mikey up with House 23 into Fremont, Mills and Montgomery," said Mandering. "And bada-BING! That puts him with that new Republican gal Joni Ernst who took over for Kim Reynolds, and gives him 5224 more R's than D's. It's nuthin' personal, Mikey, it's strictly business."
"Then I take the north side of Council Bluffs and put it with House 22 in eastern Pottawattamie," said Mandering. "That only gives you 2149 more Republicans than Democrats, but ole Hubert Houser can handle that. Then I take the leftovers in House 21 and 24 and I got an empty seat with a 9000 vote Republican edge. Maybe I'd move some stuff around to make Ernst happy or make things better for Hubert, but there's nuthin' but Republicans to move around."
"But instead House 16 gets put with House 15, which has 2000 more Democrats than Republicans. Every freakin' Democrat in ten counties is in Gronstal's district. You couldn't get him better turf if you were trying."
Mandering paused, considering the implications of his words.
"Guess that makes me kind of useless, huh."
That it does, Jerry. But whatever the lines, Gronstal is GOP Target One.
UPDATE May 25: Reg reports one possible GOP candidate is retired Air Force general Al Ringgenberg, who lives “a few hundred yards” outside the district for now.
House District 15
Registration: D 6175, R 4075, N 5725, total 15991, D+ 2100
No Incumbent
House District 16
Registration: D 5286, R 5514, N 5416, total 16234, R+ 228
Incumbents:Mark Brandenburg and Mary Ann Hanusa, both R-Council Bluffs
UPDATE July 20: Hanusa staying in 16...
UPDATE February 2: Brandenburg moving to 15.
As in Sioux City, we have two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans. Hanusa, the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006, beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans. (Her predecessor, Doug Struyk, is infamous for his party change from D to R right at the 2004 filing deadline; he's now in the Matt Schultz administration.) Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100. He's had health problems his first session.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. (That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state.) The logical move here would be for someone to take on Gronstal. But Pottawattamie Republicans would probably like to run a strong candidate like an incumbent in the tougher district.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 8
Registration: D 11,461, R 9,589, N 11,141, total 32,225, D + 1872
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Nobody, nobody, nobody hates this map more than the Pottawattamie County Republicans. They're drawn out of Steve King's district, the two Council Bluffs GOP House members get paired, and the empty district is solidly Democratic.
But worst of all, their nemesis, Senator Mike Gronstal, the only man standing in the way of Total Republican Trifecta Dominance in Iowa, gets the least changed district in the state. Barring some minor annexation that doesn't show at the scale of the maps, it looks to be exactly, yes, EXACTLY the same. The rules say to keep cities together when you can, and Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace.
Republicans would love to have connected Mike's house to the vast angry mobs of nearby Republicans. Gronstal lives in the new House District 16 half of his Senate turf, the generally southern part of town which has a very slim Republican registration edge.
"Even using these squeaky clean Iowa districts, it's easy to see how you could screw Gronstal," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "You just switch the House districts around."
"All I gotta do is take a little piece of Lewis Township south of Council Bluffs to use for connective tissue," said Mandering, a wicked gleam in his eye as he said "connective tissue."
"That ain't even nuthin' creative like a median strip or a piece of Nebraska. Then I connect Mikey up with House 23 into Fremont, Mills and Montgomery," said Mandering. "And bada-BING! That puts him with that new Republican gal Joni Ernst who took over for Kim Reynolds, and gives him 5224 more R's than D's. It's nuthin' personal, Mikey, it's strictly business."
"Then I take the north side of Council Bluffs and put it with House 22 in eastern Pottawattamie," said Mandering. "That only gives you 2149 more Republicans than Democrats, but ole Hubert Houser can handle that. Then I take the leftovers in House 21 and 24 and I got an empty seat with a 9000 vote Republican edge. Maybe I'd move some stuff around to make Ernst happy or make things better for Hubert, but there's nuthin' but Republicans to move around."
"But instead House 16 gets put with House 15, which has 2000 more Democrats than Republicans. Every freakin' Democrat in ten counties is in Gronstal's district. You couldn't get him better turf if you were trying."
Mandering paused, considering the implications of his words.
"Guess that makes me kind of useless, huh."
That it does, Jerry. But whatever the lines, Gronstal is GOP Target One.
UPDATE May 25: Reg reports one possible GOP candidate is retired Air Force general Al Ringgenberg, who lives “a few hundred yards” outside the district for now.
House District 15
Registration: D 6175, R 4075, N 5725, total 15991, D+ 2100
House District 16
Registration: D 5286, R 5514, N 5416, total 16234, R+ 228
Incumbents:
UPDATE July 20: Hanusa staying in 16...
UPDATE February 2: Brandenburg moving to 15.
As in Sioux City, we have two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans. Hanusa, the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006, beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans. (Her predecessor, Doug Struyk, is infamous for his party change from D to R right at the 2004 filing deadline; he's now in the Matt Schultz administration.) Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100. He's had health problems his first session.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. (That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state.) The logical move here would be for someone to take on Gronstal. But Pottawattamie Republicans would probably like to run a strong candidate like an incumbent in the tougher district.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
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