Senate District 28
Registration: D 9973, R 13665, N 13206, total 36864, R +3692
No Incumbent
Two
candidates who lost close 2010 House races are facing off in a
no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner.: all of
Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including
Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties.
GOP
Insurance agent Mike Breitbach lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas
by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had
a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas
won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the
Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.
Still, Brietbach
has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf
for John Beard (Pronounced like bear, not like beer). The Decorah
Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district,
winning an open seat in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting
Republican Bob Hager. On paper, the district has a GOP registration edge
(#13 most Republican). But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek,
historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in
2010.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Friends For Breitbach, Beard for Iowa Senate Breitback has $13,417.73 on hand; Beard has $8,601.09.
House District 55
Registration: D 4960, R 6595, N 6196, total 17767, R +1635
Incumbent: Roger Thomas, D-Elkader (Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye, retiring)
This
is, on paper, the Democrat's toughest seat to defend, as Thomas gets
the #73 seat on the Democratic depth chart.This was a pair-up on Map Day
but Oelwein-based Wenthe, who had even speculated about moving south to Republican Dan Rasmussen's Oelwein-Independence based House 64, stepped down instead.
Thomas
will be running on new ground in Winneshiek. His old seat had all of
Clayton County and an an even party split. He keeps just three townships
of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, where he lives.
Three Republicans saw an opportunity here. In 2010, Spillville Mayor Michael Klimesh fell
more than 900 votes short of Brian Quirk. Klimesh won with 47% in the
2012 primary, with Dustin Noble of Decorah at 31 and West Union minister
Marshall Nessa at 21.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Michael T. Klimesh For State Representative, People for Roger Thomas Thomas has $8,044.28 on hand. Klimesh spent all but 20 bucks on the primary and has raised it back up to $3,445.
House District 56
Registration: D 5013, R 7070, N 7010, total 19097, R +2057
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester
Hager
started late in 2010, yet the climate of that cycle was too much for a
freshman Democrat to survivek, and Allamakee-based Hager knocked him
off. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district.
Hager
sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of
Clayton County from Thomas. The new lines give him 300 fewer
Republicans. MFL Mar-Mac School Board President Patti Ruff of McGregor
is in for the Democrats, so Hager has to share his Allamakee base.
July 19 Campaign Finance Reports: RUFF for IOWA HOUSE DIST. 56, Bob Hager for Iowa House
Not a high-dollar race here. Hager picked up his pace a bit, raising
$3,425 in the filing period for $5,377.90 on hand. Ruff has just
$1,422.46.
Senate District 28, House District 55 & 56: District of the Day 1 - 6/01/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 28. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 28. Show all posts
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 28, Iowa House District 55 & 56
Senate District 28
Registration: D 11626, R 13638, N 15841, total 41133, R +2012
No Incumbent
Two candidates who lost close 2010 House races are facing off in a no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner. The seat covers all of Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties.
Insurance agent Mike Breitbach, a Republican, lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.
Still, Brietbach has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf for Democrat John Beard. The Decorah Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district, winning in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting Republican Bob Hager. On paper, the district has a GOP registration edge. But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek, historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in 2010.
Friends For Breitbach had the money lead on the January 19 finance report with $11,776 cash on hand vs. Beard for Iowa Senate's $4148.
House District 55
Registration: D 5928, R 6910, N 7523, total 20385, R +982
Incumbent: Roger Thomas, D-Elkader (Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye, retiring) Contested Republican primary.
In retrospect, Wenthe retiring and Beard running for Senate while Thomas stays here makes some sense. Oelwein-based Wenthe was on almost all new turf and had even speculated about moving south to Republican Dan Rasmussen's Oelwein-Independence based House 64. Thomas will be running on new ground in Winneshiek, but the Senate map seems like a good fit for Beard. (This seat would have been an all-Democrat triple-up if Beard had been re-elected.)
Still, Thomas has to cope with some radical changes. His old seat had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable. It includes north Fayette. just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek.
Three Republicans see an opportunity here. In 2010, Spillville Mayor Michael Klimesh fell more than 900 votes short of Brian Quirk, the only Six Pack conservaDem to survive 2010. That seat covered all of Chickasaw and Howard counties, where Quirk won his margin, plus southern and western Winneshiek, which Klimesh carried. The other Republicans in the race are Dustin Noble of Decorah and West Union minister Marshall Nessa. Three different parts of the district, so watch that friends and neighbors dynamic.
Campaign finance reports: People for Roger Thomas
House District 56
Registration: D 5698, R 6728, N 8318, total 20748, R +1030
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester
This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.
And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard.
Hager sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans.
MFL Mar-Mac School Board President Patti Ruff of McGregor is in for the Democrats.
The friends and neighbors dynamic explains the 2010 race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district. This time, Hager has to share his Allamakee base with Ruff.
Campaign finance reports: Bob Hager for Iowa House
Original post 6/01/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11626, R 13638, N 15841, total 41133, R +2012
No Incumbent
Two candidates who lost close 2010 House races are facing off in a no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner. The seat covers all of Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties.
Insurance agent Mike Breitbach, a Republican, lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.
Still, Brietbach has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf for Democrat John Beard. The Decorah Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district, winning in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting Republican Bob Hager. On paper, the district has a GOP registration edge. But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek, historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in 2010.
Friends For Breitbach had the money lead on the January 19 finance report with $11,776 cash on hand vs. Beard for Iowa Senate's $4148.
House District 55
Registration: D 5928, R 6910, N 7523, total 20385, R +982
Incumbent: Roger Thomas, D-Elkader (Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye, retiring) Contested Republican primary.
In retrospect, Wenthe retiring and Beard running for Senate while Thomas stays here makes some sense. Oelwein-based Wenthe was on almost all new turf and had even speculated about moving south to Republican Dan Rasmussen's Oelwein-Independence based House 64. Thomas will be running on new ground in Winneshiek, but the Senate map seems like a good fit for Beard. (This seat would have been an all-Democrat triple-up if Beard had been re-elected.)
Still, Thomas has to cope with some radical changes. His old seat had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable. It includes north Fayette. just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek.
Three Republicans see an opportunity here. In 2010, Spillville Mayor Michael Klimesh fell more than 900 votes short of Brian Quirk, the only Six Pack conservaDem to survive 2010. That seat covered all of Chickasaw and Howard counties, where Quirk won his margin, plus southern and western Winneshiek, which Klimesh carried. The other Republicans in the race are Dustin Noble of Decorah and West Union minister Marshall Nessa. Three different parts of the district, so watch that friends and neighbors dynamic.
Campaign finance reports: People for Roger Thomas
House District 56
Registration: D 5698, R 6728, N 8318, total 20748, R +1030
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester
This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.
And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard.
Hager sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans.
MFL Mar-Mac School Board President Patti Ruff of McGregor is in for the Democrats.
The friends and neighbors dynamic explains the 2010 race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district. This time, Hager has to share his Allamakee base with Ruff.
Campaign finance reports: Bob Hager for Iowa House
Original post 6/01/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Monday, January 30, 2012
Breitbach Announces in Senate 28
Dem Phoenix announces against Koester in Ankeny's House 38
Two candidates who lost close 2010 House races are likely to face off in a no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner.
Insurance agent Mike Breitbach, a Republican, has announced in Senate District 28, which is all of Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties in Northeast Iowa.
Brietbach lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.
Still, Brietbach has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf for Democrat John Beard. The Decorah Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district, winning in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting Republican Bob Hager.
On paper, the seat has a GOP registration edge (1584 on Map Day, I'd say new numbers should be ready within the month). But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek, historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in 2010. Maybe if Newt gets nominated, Luther grad Calista Bisek (aka Mrs. Gingrich III) will pay a visit?
Also announcing, on the Democratic side: former Des Moines School Board member John Phoenix in south Ankeny based House District 38. It's the more Democratic of the two Ankeny seats (+191 registration on Map Day, though post-caucus that may be R+something). But it's where GOP incumbent Kevin Koester lives, and where he decided to run for a third term. With a good party balance and a solid candidate, look for this one on the target list. The north Ankeny seat, House 37 (This Is Where Your District Went) is open and looks set for a multi-way GOP primary.
Two candidates who lost close 2010 House races are likely to face off in a no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner.
Insurance agent Mike Breitbach, a Republican, has announced in Senate District 28, which is all of Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties in Northeast Iowa.
Brietbach lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.
Still, Brietbach has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf for Democrat John Beard. The Decorah Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district, winning in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting Republican Bob Hager.
On paper, the seat has a GOP registration edge (1584 on Map Day, I'd say new numbers should be ready within the month). But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek, historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in 2010. Maybe if Newt gets nominated, Luther grad Calista Bisek (aka Mrs. Gingrich III) will pay a visit?
Also announcing, on the Democratic side: former Des Moines School Board member John Phoenix in south Ankeny based House District 38. It's the more Democratic of the two Ankeny seats (+191 registration on Map Day, though post-caucus that may be R+something). But it's where GOP incumbent Kevin Koester lives, and where he decided to run for a third term. With a good party balance and a solid candidate, look for this one on the target list. The north Ankeny seat, House 37 (This Is Where Your District Went) is open and looks set for a multi-way GOP primary.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
The Northeast Corner Shakes Out
A triple announcement this week resolves a redistricting pair-up for Democrats in the state's northeast corner with a comeback attempt, a retirement, and a re-elect announcement.
The seemingly coordinated rollout began on Tuesday when former one-term representative John Beard of Decorah announced for Senate District 28.
That one caught my attention, because the empty seat had been rumored as an escape route for either one of two House members paired up in district 55: Roger Thomas of Elkader and Andrew Wenthe of Hawkeye.
The other shoes dropped Wednesday, with the two emails from the House Democrats landing an hour and a half apart: Wenthe, an extremely narrow winner in 2010, is stepping down, while Thomas is staying and running in the GOP-leaning House 55.
In retrospect it makes some sense. Oelwein-based Wenthe was on almost all new turf and had even speculated about moving south to Republican Dan Rasmussen's Oelwein-Independence based House 64. (Does Wenthe NOT doing that mean that one term Democrat Gene Ficken, who knocked off Rasmussen in `08 but lost the rematch in `10, may be making a comeback?)
Thomas will be running on new ground in Winneshiek, but the Senate map seems like a good fit for Beard. He gained the Winneshiek-Allamakee based house seat in 2008 when Republican Chuck Gipp retired. Beard was unopposed as of filing day in 2010, but Republican Bob Hager got in late and won in November.
The new map splits Winneshiek and Allamakee between House 55 and 56 (where Allamakee-based Hager is running again). This corner of the state is historically Republican, but trended strongly Democratic in 2008.
The seemingly coordinated rollout began on Tuesday when former one-term representative John Beard of Decorah announced for Senate District 28.
That one caught my attention, because the empty seat had been rumored as an escape route for either one of two House members paired up in district 55: Roger Thomas of Elkader and Andrew Wenthe of Hawkeye.
The other shoes dropped Wednesday, with the two emails from the House Democrats landing an hour and a half apart: Wenthe, an extremely narrow winner in 2010, is stepping down, while Thomas is staying and running in the GOP-leaning House 55.
In retrospect it makes some sense. Oelwein-based Wenthe was on almost all new turf and had even speculated about moving south to Republican Dan Rasmussen's Oelwein-Independence based House 64. (Does Wenthe NOT doing that mean that one term Democrat Gene Ficken, who knocked off Rasmussen in `08 but lost the rematch in `10, may be making a comeback?)
Thomas will be running on new ground in Winneshiek, but the Senate map seems like a good fit for Beard. He gained the Winneshiek-Allamakee based house seat in 2008 when Republican Chuck Gipp retired. Beard was unopposed as of filing day in 2010, but Republican Bob Hager got in late and won in November.
The new map splits Winneshiek and Allamakee between House 55 and 56 (where Allamakee-based Hager is running again). This corner of the state is historically Republican, but trended strongly Democratic in 2008.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Great Scott! A Primary?
Great Scott! A Primary?
The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.
The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"
Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)
One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.
And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."
In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...
I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.
Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.
And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.
Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:
Craig Robinson smacks down the pizza guy: "Herman Cain has a book due out in October. One has to wonder if his presidential bid is more about selling books than becoming the GOP nominee." Hey, when does Newt publish again?
As would-be GOP saviour the Platypus is turning out to be just Texas tea, the background on why the Bushes and Rick Perry are on the outs.
Let Obama Be Obama vs. Let Obama be Harry Truman.
And my favorite dream of the week: "If America truly is serious about dealing with its deficit problems, there's a fairly simple solution. But you're probably not going to like it: Enact a single-payer health care plan." Who said I wasn't going to like it?
The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.
The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"
Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)
One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.
And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."
In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...
I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.
Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.
And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.
Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56
District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56
UPDATE December 22: Wenthe retiring, Thomas staying, Beard running for Senate.
Senate District 28
Registration: D 11590, R 13174, N 15205, total 39999, R+ 1584
No Incumbent
House District 55
Registration: D 5909, R 6694, N 7269, total 19895, R+ 785
Incumbents: Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye and Roger Thomas, D-Elkader
Wenthe's old district was anchored by Oelwein and included most of Fayette, the eastern half of Bremer and part of northern Black Hawk. It had a Republican lean about the same as this seat.
Thomas had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable.
The new district changes radically. It includes the part of north Fayette where Wenthe lives and just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, which happens to be where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek, which neither one of them had before (see below).
Wenthe and Thomas seem to be working out their pair, at least according to Wenthe:
House District 56
Registration: D 5681, R 6480, N 7936, total 20104, R+ 799
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester
This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.
And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard. (If you want to think of it as a silver lining, if Beard had won a second term, House 55 would have been an all-Democratic triple-up with Wenthe and Thomas.)
The friends and neighbors dynamic explains this race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district.
Hager, who's announced for a second term, sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans, but he does get the pink elephant at the Miss Marquette casino which should make for a great photo op.
UPDATE December 22: Wenthe retiring, Thomas staying, Beard running for Senate.
Senate District 28
Registration: D 11590, R 13174, N 15205, total 39999, R+ 1584
No Incumbent
House District 55
Registration: D 5909, R 6694, N 7269, total 19895, R+ 785
Incumbents: Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye and Roger Thomas, D-Elkader
Wenthe's old district was anchored by Oelwein and included most of Fayette, the eastern half of Bremer and part of northern Black Hawk. It had a Republican lean about the same as this seat.
Thomas had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable.
The new district changes radically. It includes the part of north Fayette where Wenthe lives and just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, which happens to be where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek, which neither one of them had before (see below).
Wenthe and Thomas seem to be working out their pair, at least according to Wenthe:
"Politically, it wasn't the most perfect map for either Roger or me," Wenthe said. "But that's sort of how the system works and we both voted for it because it was deemed to be a well-constructed map."Based on which district has more of the old turf, the Senate seat seems to be a better fit for Thomas. The Senate district has all of his Clayton base plus all of Allamakee, most of Winneshiek and north Fayette, going south to Fayette and Wadena. House 64 goes south to Oelwein and Independence so that move would be more apropos for Wenthe.
Wenthe said he or Thomas could move into the open Senate District 28, which covers parts or all of Winneshiek, Fayette, Allamakee and Clayton counties. Or one could move south to challenge Rep. Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence, in House District 64.
House District 56Registration: D 5681, R 6480, N 7936, total 20104, R+ 799
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester
This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.
And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard. (If you want to think of it as a silver lining, if Beard had won a second term, House 55 would have been an all-Democratic triple-up with Wenthe and Thomas.)
The friends and neighbors dynamic explains this race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district.
Hager, who's announced for a second term, sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans, but he does get the pink elephant at the Miss Marquette casino which should make for a great photo op.
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