Senate District 6
Registration: D 10324, R 13414, N 15517, total 39281, R +3090
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring)
Could
the Democrats win Steve King's old legislative seat? Here's another one
where the Republican primary outcome gives Democrats an opportunity on
less than ideal turf.
Adam Schweers had the backing of both Rod
Roberts and Terry Branstad, but drew criticism for launching his Senate
bid just weeks after taking office as Carroll's mayor. Crawford County
supervisor Mark Segebart,
running to the right of Schweers, prevailed in the primary 47-40%, A
third candidate, Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede , was an
afterthought at 13%.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll is a solid candidate with strong family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin.
The
seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has
pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford that the retiring Steve
Kettering held for 10 years, after taking over from King in a special
election. Tiny Audubon County is added.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mark Segebart for Senate , Bruner For State Senate
Bruner is ahead with $11,086.70 on hand. Segebart emptied the tanks to
win the primary and has re-fueled back up to $5,807.15 since -- but
$5000 of that is a self-loan.
House District 11
Registration: D 4167, R 7026, N 6965, total 18162, R +2859
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, unopposed
Worthan
has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66%
in 2008 and 74% in 2010. In the new map he gains about 500 Republicans,
in some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena
Vista counties, no more, no less.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Worthan for Iowa House
House District 12
Registration: D 6157, R 6388, N 8552, total 21119, R +231
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
Muhlbauer
was the only good news Democrats got in 2010. Republicans nominated an
extremely weak candidate when nice guy Rod Roberts stepped down in a
quixotic bid for governor. The moderate Muhlbauer was a good fit for the
district and scored one of the few Democratic gains anywhere in the
country.
Muhlbauer cast some overly cautious votes on choice
and marriage, and is one of just two Democrats in contested races (the
other is Helen Miller of Ft. Dodge) to win the endorsement of the Iowa
Business and Industry PAC. That would indicate that his opponent,
Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, isn't a high priority.
The
line changes turned a slim Republican registration edge into a slim
Democratic edge; the Senate primary flipped it back to plurality R, but
it's nevertheless a little better than the old seat. Carroll County
still dominates the district.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Muhlbauer for State Representative, Bornhoft for Iowa House Muhlbauer has $9,226.56 on hand; Bornhoft, just $366.
Senate District 6, House District 11 & 12: District of the Day 1 - 5/02/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Mary Bruner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mary Bruner. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 6, Iowa House District 11 & 12
Senate District 6
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, March 08, 2012
Day 9 of Filing
The Republican 1st Congressional District primary is now official, as Rod Blum joins Ben Lange on the ballot.
That tops today's list of filing, but my local readers will be more interested in Dick Schwab. The Solon school board member filed in House District 73. He'll have a Democratic primary with former West Branch city council member David Johnson; the winner faces GOP incumbent Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton in a Democratic-leaning district.
We have two News To Me Republican primary challenges, in what's starting to look like a trend. Matthew Ung of Sioux City House District 6, held by fellow Republican Ron Jorgensen. He's young, he's teapartyish, he writes letters to the editor in bulk... he's Some Dude.
James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton ran a a Democrat against Rich Arnold in 2008. This year he filed as a Republican and is challenging freshman Rep. Joel Fry, R-Osceola in House District 27. S - O - M - _, D - U - D - _ , can I buy an E.
In another GOP primary challenge, Kevin Wolfswinkel of Sibley is challenging Rep. Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji, in House District 1. Both filed today; Wolfswinkel seems to be running to the right.
Larry McKibben is officially on the comeback trail. The Marshalltown Republican filed today in Senate District 36. He'll have a primary with two-time unsuccessful House candidate Jane Jech. The winner will face McKibben's successor, Democrat Steve Sodders.
In the two year race for Senate District 49, Dorothy O'Brien of Clinton joins Rita Hart on the Democratic primary ballot. Winner faces 2010 near-winner Andrew Naeve.
Burlington veteran Brad Bourn filed on the Republican line in Senate District 44. His challenge to Democratic incumbent Tom Courtney is steeper than Snake Alley.
Altoona city council member Joe Riding filed in open House District 30. He announced well before GOP incumbent Kim Pearson announced her retirement after one term.
Marshalltown Republican Allen Burt filed in House 71 against Democratic incumbent Mark Smith.
Sioux City freshman Democrat Chris Hall filed in House District 13. He'll face Republican freshman Jeremy Taylor in the only two incumbent matchup on the House side in November.
Significant non-filing news today:
Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia announced in open Tama County based House District 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring.
In open Senate District 42, Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland is dropping out of the Democratic primary. This leaves three Democrats in the running for Gene Fraise's open seat: Bob Morawitz and Donna Amandus, both of Fort Madison, and Rich Taylor of Mount Pleasant. Winner faces Republican Larry Kruse in a good Democratic seat.
And in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is retiring, Carroll's Douglas Burns reports:
Routine incumbent filings on Day 9:
Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, in House District 11
Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia, in House District 22
Brian Quirk, D-New Hampton, in House District 52
Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 65
Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 70
Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton in House District 98
That tops today's list of filing, but my local readers will be more interested in Dick Schwab. The Solon school board member filed in House District 73. He'll have a Democratic primary with former West Branch city council member David Johnson; the winner faces GOP incumbent Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton in a Democratic-leaning district.
We have two News To Me Republican primary challenges, in what's starting to look like a trend. Matthew Ung of Sioux City House District 6, held by fellow Republican Ron Jorgensen. He's young, he's teapartyish, he writes letters to the editor in bulk... he's Some Dude.
James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton ran a a Democrat against Rich Arnold in 2008. This year he filed as a Republican and is challenging freshman Rep. Joel Fry, R-Osceola in House District 27. S - O - M - _, D - U - D - _ , can I buy an E.
In another GOP primary challenge, Kevin Wolfswinkel of Sibley is challenging Rep. Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji, in House District 1. Both filed today; Wolfswinkel seems to be running to the right.
Larry McKibben is officially on the comeback trail. The Marshalltown Republican filed today in Senate District 36. He'll have a primary with two-time unsuccessful House candidate Jane Jech. The winner will face McKibben's successor, Democrat Steve Sodders.
In the two year race for Senate District 49, Dorothy O'Brien of Clinton joins Rita Hart on the Democratic primary ballot. Winner faces 2010 near-winner Andrew Naeve.
Burlington veteran Brad Bourn filed on the Republican line in Senate District 44. His challenge to Democratic incumbent Tom Courtney is steeper than Snake Alley.
Altoona city council member Joe Riding filed in open House District 30. He announced well before GOP incumbent Kim Pearson announced her retirement after one term.
Marshalltown Republican Allen Burt filed in House 71 against Democratic incumbent Mark Smith.
Sioux City freshman Democrat Chris Hall filed in House District 13. He'll face Republican freshman Jeremy Taylor in the only two incumbent matchup on the House side in November.
Significant non-filing news today:
Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia announced in open Tama County based House District 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring.
In open Senate District 42, Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland is dropping out of the Democratic primary. This leaves three Democrats in the running for Gene Fraise's open seat: Bob Morawitz and Donna Amandus, both of Fort Madison, and Rich Taylor of Mount Pleasant. Winner faces Republican Larry Kruse in a good Democratic seat.
And in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is retiring, Carroll's Douglas Burns reports:
Carroll Democrat Mary Bruner, a candidate for the new Iowa Senate District 6, is getting positive press in the northern part of the newly drawn political territory on a crucial issue: dredging in Storm Lake.Significantly, Burns also says: "Carroll County Republicans, working with Gov. Terry Branstad and other party leaders, have sought to recruit candidates from Carroll County but have been turned down by at least two well-known Carroll residents who would have been strong contenders." The combination of a solid candidate, family ties -- was I just saying I hope Gronstal has a path to 26 that doesn't run through Oskaloosa? -- and Republican recruitment failure puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
For years, The Storm Lake Times has aggressively advocated for improvements to the lake.
The newspaper in its Feb. 29 issue credited Bruner — who is a cousin of State Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs — with “interceding” on behalf of Storm Lake to secure $1.5 million in dredging funds for next year.
In other words, The Times, in one of its top front-page stories, is giving Bruner credit for doing Senate work before she’s even elected, a political boon for the Carroll banker in Buena Vista County.
Routine incumbent filings on Day 9:
Thursday, February 02, 2012
McKibben Makes Comeback
Dem Bruner announces in Senate 26
Republicans just picked up as high profile a challenger as they can get for Democratic Sen. Steve Sodders of Marshalltown: his predecessor.
Former three-term senator and one time congressional candidate Larry McKibben announced this week against Sodders in Senate District 36. There was already a Republican in the race, two-time House loser Jane Jech, but she's a Some Dude compared to McKibben.
But Sodders still has an edge here: the deputy sheriff has cut a moderate image and is currently raffling off guns as a fund raiser. And the new district has a better partisan margin (Map Day: R+ 264) than the one he took over from McKibben, who retired in 2008 after a near-loss (51%) in the good GOP cycle of 2004. The new seat keeps the mutual McKibben-Sodders base of Marshall County, which is 2/3 of the turf. It sheds Hardin County and moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.
Look for this race to quickly jump to the top of the charts in the all-important battle for the Senate, right below Mike Gronstal and Tom Rielly.
Also announcing: Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is standing down after a decade. This sprawling seat has four whole counties -- Buena Vista, Sac, Carroll and Audubon -- along with eastern Crawford. Republicans had a Map Day registration edge of 2187, but no GOP names are on my radar. That said, I'm not the greatest expert on Republican internal politics in western Iowa.
Update from yesterday: It'll be 26 Senate races after all. Retiring Democrat Jack Kibbie is "resigning" the end of his term, which expires this year anyway. This lets Republican David Johnson hold over until 2014 in new District 1. Likewise (quid pro quo, Clarice?) Republican Pat Ward vacated her seat after all, letting Democrat Matt McCoy hold over till 2014. Ward is moving one district to the west, where she has a primary challenge from minister Jeff Mullen. Mullen has out-fundraised Ward, and Democrat Desmund Adams has outraised both.
But in the Davenport-Muscatine Senate 46, both incumbent Republicans Shawn Hamerlinck and Jim Hahn are staying put for a fratricidal primary. The winner will face Muscatine Democrat Chris Brase.
Republicans just picked up as high profile a challenger as they can get for Democratic Sen. Steve Sodders of Marshalltown: his predecessor.
Former three-term senator and one time congressional candidate Larry McKibben announced this week against Sodders in Senate District 36. There was already a Republican in the race, two-time House loser Jane Jech, but she's a Some Dude compared to McKibben.
But Sodders still has an edge here: the deputy sheriff has cut a moderate image and is currently raffling off guns as a fund raiser. And the new district has a better partisan margin (Map Day: R+ 264) than the one he took over from McKibben, who retired in 2008 after a near-loss (51%) in the good GOP cycle of 2004. The new seat keeps the mutual McKibben-Sodders base of Marshall County, which is 2/3 of the turf. It sheds Hardin County and moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.
Look for this race to quickly jump to the top of the charts in the all-important battle for the Senate, right below Mike Gronstal and Tom Rielly.
Also announcing: Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is standing down after a decade. This sprawling seat has four whole counties -- Buena Vista, Sac, Carroll and Audubon -- along with eastern Crawford. Republicans had a Map Day registration edge of 2187, but no GOP names are on my radar. That said, I'm not the greatest expert on Republican internal politics in western Iowa.
Update from yesterday: It'll be 26 Senate races after all. Retiring Democrat Jack Kibbie is "resigning" the end of his term, which expires this year anyway. This lets Republican David Johnson hold over until 2014 in new District 1. Likewise (quid pro quo, Clarice?) Republican Pat Ward vacated her seat after all, letting Democrat Matt McCoy hold over till 2014. Ward is moving one district to the west, where she has a primary challenge from minister Jeff Mullen. Mullen has out-fundraised Ward, and Democrat Desmund Adams has outraised both.
But in the Davenport-Muscatine Senate 46, both incumbent Republicans Shawn Hamerlinck and Jim Hahn are staying put for a fratricidal primary. The winner will face Muscatine Democrat Chris Brase.
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