District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 42, Iowa House District 83 & 84

Senate District 42
Registration: D 13344, R 10936, N 13501, total 37812, D +2408
Open seat; Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison retiring.

Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties.

Lee County makes up 59% of this district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson. So basically the same seat Fraise had adjusted for population; not much you can change about lines when you're in a corner of the state. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off the party registration edge.

Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland was the early Democratic favorite, but he dropped out shortly before his death from cancer in March. His campaign chair Donna Amandus ran, but finished second in the primary behind labor activist Rich Taylor of Mt. Pleasant, 50-35%. Third candidate Bob Morawitz polled 15%.

The leading Republican, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, announced before Fraise's retirement was official. He easily won his primary against former congressional candidate Lee Harder, 71-29%.

Independent Michael Garmoe announced his candidacy early in the year but has been way below the radar.

Party ID favors Taylor; each candidate has a base in the opposite party's county, but Lee County is more Democratic than Henry County is Republican.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Kruse for Senate, Rich Taylor Campaign Fund Kruse has $5,402.17 on hand. Taylor trails with $3,193.08, but he was spending on a tougher primary.

House District 83
Registration: D 8705, R 3455, N 6445, total 18627, D +5250
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk

Kearns picked up the Keokuk-Ft. Madison seat in 2008 when Phil Wise retired. He won with a clear majority in a three way primary, then won the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010.

This year's Republican, Jim Steffen, started late too. He tried to get nominated as a primary write-in, but that's harder than it would seem, so Republicans had a convention. He has the toughest turf of any Republican on the ballot: the number four Democratic seat.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Steffen for House, Kearns for State Representative Committee Kaarns has just $2,982.92 on hand, not much for an incumbent. But Steffen is at just $475.

House District 84
Registration: D 4639, R 7481, N 7056, total 19185, R +2842
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant

Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. The seemingly small changes this decade boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Heaton

Senate District 42, House District 83 & 84: District of the Day 1 - 6/21/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

Filing Season Starts Slow

The fall filing season is off to a slow start, with just a handful of candidates turning in papers during the first four days.

Iowa's first Official presidential candidate is independent Jerry Litzel. Who? One Jerry Litzel of Ames, who appears to be this Some Dude and who seems to have recruited a family member, Jim Litzel, as a running mate. Even the incredibly comprehensive Politics1 has never heard of Litzel.

News to me: Independent Michael Garmoe apparently announced his candidacy several months ago in Senate District 42 in the bump on the lower right corner of Iowa. Garmoe joins Democrat Rich Taylor and Republican Larry Kruse on the ballot in the open seat long held by retiring Democrat Gene Fraise.

Mark Riley of Davenport won 38% in 2010 as the Republican nominee against Senator Doctor Joe Seng. This cycle Riley's goin' rogue as an independent against Democratic Rep. Cindy Winckler in House District 90. Republicans have scheduled a convention for August 9 in this heavily Democratic district.

In addition to the independents, some of the candidates nominated at party conventions have turned their paperwork in to Matt Schultz: Tim Tripp (D, Senate 40), Dan LeRette (R, House 33), Landslide John Landon (R, This Is Where Your District Went) and Ted Whisler (D, House 97).

Watch for these posts late afternoons and get ready for District Of The Day III, coming to theaters on filing deadline August 17. I may do this one in 3D.

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 42, Iowa House District 83 & 84

Senate District 42
Registration: D 14153, R 11008, N 15695, total 40890, D +3145
Open seat; Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.

Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties.

Fraise's last district had nice clean lines: Henry and Lee counties, no more no less. All of that stays in this seat. To bump the population up, the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson counties are added: Crawfordsville, Brighton, Lockridge and Coppock. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the other counties. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off the party registration edge.

The leading Republican, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, announced before Fraise's retirement was official. Kruse has been in office since 2004; his supervisor term is on the same cycle as the Senate seat so it's up or out for him. While Kruse has county-wide name ID in Lee (59% of the district, with Henry making up 33%), the county elects supervisors by districts. So he's only been a candidate in one-fifth of Lee County (basically the north rural part). Kruse seems to be mindful of the Democratic edge here, citing a "track record of bi-partisan results."

Kruse has a primary against Lee Harder of Hillsboro, who finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary.

Four Democrats announced for this seat but only three are left. Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland dropped out, reportedly for health reasons. The three remaining Dems are:

• Fort Madison electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz.
• Donna Amandus, also of Fort Madison, is described as "Democratic activist" in the Keokuk Gate City article, which emphasizes gender.
• Mount Pleasant's Rich Taylor, recently retired working more than 26 years at the
  Iowa State Penitentiary in Fort Madison. Does that mean he's the AFSCME guy in this race? If so, Representative Todd would surely welcome him to the Taylor Caucus.

So with three we're theoretically in the zone where no one gets 35 percent, thus forcing a convention, but it's not as likely as it was when this looked like a four way race. It nearly happened statewide in the `02 Republican governor primary: just three candidates and Doug Gross only got 35.6% FTW. Contests like this often become friends and neighbors races. Will the two Fort Madison candidates split their mutual base?

Kruse for Senate led the field in money on the January 19 report with $4611 on hand. The Rich Taylor Campaign Fund had $528 and Committee to elect Bob Morawitz had $500, all from himself. Amandus announced later.

Party ID favors whichever Dem gets through the primary; Lee County is more Democratic than Henry County is Republican. In recent races, Fraise beat Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.

House District 83
Registration: D 8975, R 3780, N 7258, total 20035, D +5195
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk

The big change in the southeast corner of the state (Baja Iowa?) happened a decade ago. Fort Madison and Keokuk had historically anchored separate seats, but in 2001 they got put together. In a textbook example of a friends and neighbors primary, Keokuk's Phil Wise edged Fort Madison's Rick Larkin 51 to 49. (Rick landed on his feet, going to the Board of Supervisors.)

When Wise stepped down in 2008, we got a counter-example. Jerry Kearns was one of two Keokuk Democrats facing a lone Fort Madison candidate, Tracy Vance. But Kearns' labor ties proved more important than the geography, as he won with a clear majority and went on to win the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010, and no Republican has filed this year.


Compared to the radical rewrite of 2001, the lines are almost identical. Most of the line is still at about the latitude that demarcates the rest of the Missouri border, wrapping south of Donellson to exclude it, to Fort Madison. At the northeast, Kearns adds two townships, with no significant partisan impact.

Campaign finance reports: Kearns for State Representative Committee

House District 84
Registration: D 5178, R 7228, N 8437, total 20855, R +2050
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant

Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.

The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. Heaton keeps most of the same part of northern Lee County, and expands north and west into Washington and Jefferson. The seemingly small changes boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans. Democrats don't have a candidate yet.


Campaign finance reports: Citizens for Heaton

Original post 6/21/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Day 9 of Filing

The Republican 1st Congressional District primary is now official, as Rod Blum joins Ben Lange on the ballot.

That tops today's list of filing, but my local readers will be more interested in Dick Schwab. The Solon school board member filed in House District 73. He'll have a Democratic primary with former West Branch city council member David Johnson; the winner faces GOP incumbent Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton in a Democratic-leaning district.

We have two News To Me Republican primary challenges, in what's starting to look like a trend. Matthew Ung of Sioux City House District 6, held by fellow Republican Ron Jorgensen. He's young, he's teapartyish, he writes letters to the editor in bulk... he's Some Dude.

James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton ran a a Democrat against Rich Arnold in 2008. This year he filed as a Republican and is challenging freshman Rep. Joel Fry, R-Osceola in House District 27. S - O - M - _, D - U - D - _ , can I buy an E.

In another GOP primary challenge, Kevin Wolfswinkel of Sibley is challenging Rep. Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji, in House District 1. Both filed today; Wolfswinkel seems to be running to the right.

Larry McKibben is officially on the comeback trail. The Marshalltown Republican filed today in Senate District 36. He'll have a primary with two-time unsuccessful House candidate Jane Jech. The winner will face McKibben's successor, Democrat Steve Sodders.

In the two year race for Senate District 49, Dorothy O'Brien of Clinton joins Rita Hart on the Democratic primary ballot. Winner faces 2010 near-winner Andrew Naeve.

Burlington veteran Brad Bourn filed on the Republican line in Senate District 44. His challenge to Democratic incumbent Tom Courtney is steeper than Snake Alley.

Altoona city council member Joe Riding filed in open House District 30. He announced well before GOP incumbent Kim Pearson announced her retirement after one term.

Marshalltown Republican Allen Burt filed in House 71 against Democratic incumbent Mark Smith.

Sioux City freshman Democrat Chris Hall filed in House District 13. He'll face Republican freshman Jeremy Taylor in the only two incumbent matchup on the House side in November.

Significant non-filing news today:

Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia announced in open Tama County based House District 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring.

In open Senate District 42, Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland is dropping out of the Democratic primary. This leaves three Democrats in the running for Gene Fraise's open seat: Bob Morawitz and Donna Amandus, both of Fort Madison, and Rich Taylor of Mount Pleasant. Winner faces Republican Larry Kruse in a good Democratic seat.

And in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is retiring, Carroll's Douglas Burns reports:

Carroll Democrat Mary Bruner, a candidate for the new Iowa Senate District 6, is getting positive press in the northern part of the newly drawn political territory on a crucial issue: dredging in Storm Lake.

For years, The Storm Lake Times has aggressively advocated for improvements to the lake.

The newspaper in its Feb. 29 issue credited Bruner — who is a cousin of State Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs — with “interceding” on behalf of Storm Lake to secure $1.5 million in dredging funds for next year.

In other words, The Times, in one of its top front-page stories, is giving Bruner credit for doing Senate work before she’s even elected, a political boon for the Carroll banker in Buena Vista County.

Significantly, Burns also says: "Carroll County Republicans, working with Gov. Terry Branstad and other party leaders, have sought to recruit candidates from Carroll County but have been turned down by at least two well-known Carroll residents who would have been strong contenders." The combination of a solid candidate, family ties -- was I just saying I hope Gronstal has a path to 26 that doesn't run through Oskaloosa? -- and Republican recruitment failure puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.

Routine incumbent filings on Day 9:

Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, in House District 11

Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia, in House District 22

Brian Quirk, D-New Hampton, in House District 52

Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 65

Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 70

Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton in House District 98

Fourth Candidate in Senate 42 Dem Primary

A crowded field in Iowa's southeast corner just got more crowded, as a fourth Democrat joins the race to succeed the retiring Gene Fraise in Senate District 42.

Donna Amandus of Fort Madison is described as "Democratic activist" in the Keokuk Gate City article, which lists other c.v. data as:

She has led or worked on Lee County's reprecincting committee, the county's compensation board and Latino outreach at the Mexican Fiesta. She's also involved with planning and preparing for the county and district conventions coming to Fort Madison.

Both the Keokuk piece and the Burlington Hawkeye lead with gender:

Despite the fact that women make up the majority of Iowa’s population (1,435,515, or 49.1 of Iowans are male, according to the 2010 census), only seven women serve in Iowa’s 50-seat Senate.
...
Donna Amandus, 48, of Fort Madison hopes to make it eight...

The vote for the woman vote is significant in some places, like here in Iowa City. But more significant may be the fact that Amandus is the third Fort Madison candidate in the field, joining Mayor Steve Ireland and electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz. The fourth contender, Rich Taylor, is from Mt. Pleasant. With the Ft. Madison vote splitting three ways, someone from Keokuk is missing an opportunity...

Lee and Henry Counties are the bulk of this district, indeed were the old distrrict. The new turf adda a few rural Washington County townships.

The primary winner -- or, if no one gets 35%, the convention winner -- will likely face the only announced Republican, Lee County supervisor Larry Kruse, in November.

Three Way Democratic Race in Senate 42

I know, I know. 27 days till the caucuses. I should be saying something about the presidential race. Keep reading, you'll get there. But where else are you going to hear about the looming three-way Democratic primary in Senate District 42?

The scene: The bump on the bottom of Iowa, Lee County, with Henry County and bits of Washington and Jefferson added. Our story begins when longtime Sen. Gene Fraise announces he won't seek re-election.

Our players are:

Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland.

Also from Fort Madison, electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz.

And from Mount Pleasant, Rich Taylor, recently retired working more than 26 years at the Iowa State Penitentiary in Fort Madison. Does that mean he's the AFSCME guy in this race? If so, Representative Todd would sure welcome him to the Taylor Caucus.

So with three we're theoretically in the zone where no one gets 35 percent, thus forcing a convention, but the votes would have to split exactly right. (Nearly happened statewide in the `02 governor primary: just three candidates and Doug Gross only got 35.6.) Still, you should go to your own party's caucus in case that convention happens.

The winner faces Republican Larry Kruse, a Lee County supervisor, who got in before Fraise announced his retirement. Party registration favors whichever Dem gets through the primary; Henry County is solidly Republican unless your name is Vilsack, but Lee is even more solidly Democratic.

Contests like this often become friends and neighbors races. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the other counties. But the two Lee candidates could split that vote. Just one of many dynamics to watch.

That Tangent got too long, needs to be a new post.

Fraise Retires in Senate 42

Fraise Retires in Senate 42

Longtime Sen. Gene Fraise (D-Ft. Madison) has announced he will retire next year after 26 years, which means an open seat race in Senate District 42.

Not a huge surprise here: Fraise turns 80 before election day 2012. The seat has a good Democratic Registration edge of 3500. Fraise had a bit of a close call in 2004, held to 53%, but ahainst the same opponent in 2008 increased the lead to 57%. The entire old district - exactly Lee and Henry counties - is in the new turf; a couple townships in Washington County are added.

Republican Larry Kruse, a Lee County supervisor, has already announced.

Legislative Updates from Tiffin

Who Cares About Presidential Politics? I Need District Of The Day Updates!

In addition to the four presidential candidates, several GOP legislators were on hand at the multi-county fundraiser in Tiffin. As Iowa's worst case of OCD - Obsessive Compulsive Districts - I discussed The Map with a few:

Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota says of his pair-up with Betty De Boef: "I think Betty's made it pretty clear she isn't interested in running for the House seat." That would leave Klein as the only incumbent in the House District 78 race.

As for De Boef, Klein says, "Whatever else she does is up to her." The Rumor Mill says De Boef may be interested in taking on Democratic Senator Tom Rielly in Senate District 40. That would require a move on her part, but it would be a move back toward her original turf (she moved east from Mahaska to Keokuk County after getting paired in `01.) And it would be a move into very GOP friendly turf. Rielly is number two on the GOP Senate target list, right below Mike Gronstal.

Muscatine's Jim Hahn says he will be running for re-election in 2012 in Senate District 46, but hasn't discussed plans with his new district mate, Shawn Hamerlinck, since shortly after the map came out. Hahn did note that Hamerlinck's home is close to the line. (Is a move in the making? Will Hamerlinck "go home" to a new home?)

Senator Tim Kapucian of Keystone isn't paired up in Senate District 38, but noted that two-thirds of his turf is new. He believes his strong agricultural background will serve him well with his new voters.

Also on hand was Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, newly minted candidate in Senate District 42. Kruse may be the last to know whether or not longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Fraise, who turns 80 next year, is running again. But he says he hasn't heard rumors of any other Democratic names.

Kruse Announces In Senate 42

Kruse Announces In Senate 42

Via Iowa Indy: Republicans in the southeast corner of the state have a recruit for Senate District 42. Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse announced at a local GOP fundraiser over the weekend.

The incumbent, Democrat Gene Fraise, has held some variation of this seat since 1986. Fraise, who turns 80 next year, hasn't announced his plans. He has beaten Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.

"Lee County has a history of 'promoting' its members of the board of supervisors" to the legislature, notes Joe Benedict in the Keokuk Gate City. Both Fraise and State Rep. Jerry Kearns went from the Board to the legislature. Rick Larkin made a round trip: Supervisor to House, then back to Supervisor after a redistricting pair-up.

Key difference: all of them were Democrats. Senate 42 had an April Democratic registration edge of about 3500. It includes all of Fraise's territory from last decade, when it was all of Henry and Lee counties and nothing else. This decade it adds parts of Washington and Jefferson counties.

Kruse seems to be mindful of that Democratic edge, citing a "track record of bi-partisan results."

Kruse has been in office since 2004; his supervisor term is on the same cycle as the Senate seat so it's up or out for him. While Kruse has county-wide name ID in Lee (59% of the district, with Henry making up 33%), the county elects supervisors by districts. So he's only been a candidate in one-fifth of Lee County (basically the north rural part).

District of the Day: Senate District 42, House Districts 83 and 84

District of the Day: Senate District 42, House Districts 83 and 84

Senate District 42

Registration: D 13684, R 10181, N 13959, total 37860, D+ 3503
Incumbent: Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison UPDATE Sept. 23 - Fraise retiring.

UPDATE August 1: Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse (R) announces.

The question here is less about the turf and more about whether Fraise wants to seek another term next year, when he turns 80. He has beaten Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.

Fraise keeps all of his district from last decade, which had nice clean lines: Henry and Lee counties, no more no less. To bump the population up, the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson counties are added: Crawfordsville, Brighton, Lockridge and Coppock. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off his party registration edge.

The lines were very different when Fraise took over from Lowell Junkins in a 1986 special election, when Junkins stepped down to run for governor. In the 1990s. Fraise went northeast from his Ft. Madison base to pick up Burlington and most of Des Moines County. That led to a 1992 pair-up with Republican Mark Hagerla, which Fraise won handily. Next door Henry County and the Keokuk part of Lee, along with most of Washington, were Tom Vilsack's.

House District 83

Registration: D 8795, R 3409, N 6501, total 18729, D+ 5386
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk



The big change in the southeast corner of the state (Baja Iowa?) happened a decade ago. Fort Madison and Keokuk had historically anchored separate seats, but in 2001 they got put together. In a textbook example of a friends and neighbors primary, Keokuk's Phil Wise edged Fort Madison's Rick Larkin 51 to 49. (Rick landed on his feet, going to the Board of Supervisors.)

When Wise stepped down in 2008, we got a counter-example. Jerry Kearns was one of two Keokuk Democrats facing a lone Fort Madison candidate, Tracy Vance. But Kearns' labor ties proved more important than the geography, as he won with a clear majority and went on to win the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010.

Compared to the radical rewrite of 2001, the lines are almost identical. Most of the line is still at about the latitude that demarcates the rest of the Missouri border, wrapping south of Donellson to exclude it, to Fort Madison. At the northeast, Kearns adds two townships, with no significant partisan impact.

House District 84

Registration: D 4889, R 6772, N 7458, total 19131, R+ 1883
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant

Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.

The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. Heaton keeps most of the same part of northern Lee County, and expands north and west into Washington and Jefferson. The seemingly small changes boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans. Only real question is how long Heaton, now 70, wants to stick around.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map