Senate District 5
Registration: D 11692, R 12667, N 14557, total 38946, R +975
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge; holdover seat
Beall
won a third term in 2010 in old district 25 with 54% and holds over.
Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a slightly Republican district
that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps
Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and
instead goes north into Pocahontas and Humboldt.
House District 9
Registration: D 7150, R 5140, N 6458, total 18764, D +2010
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge; rematch of 2010 race
Miller
keeps her entire old district, which she's held since 2002, and adds
three townships to balance the population and maintain roughly the same
Democratic edge. The city of Ft. Dodge is almost the whole district
here, in a phenomenon I call "the district draws itself." The
redistricting law required cities and counties to be kept whole where
possible, and so if one is just below district size there's not much to
decide.
Miller's first tough race was in 2010. Matt Alcazar, a tea
partier who had started out running as an independent before switching
to the GOP line, came out of nowhere, and held Miller to 52%. Alcazar is
running again, but 2010 was probably a fluke. Republicans don't seem to
be targeting this seat, and Miller has received loads of positive
publicity for her recent induction into Iowa's African American Hall of
Fame.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Committee to Re-Elect Helen Miller, Alcazar for State Representative Miller has a solid $12,139.69 in the bank vs. Alcazar's $1,469.98.
House District 10
Registration: D 4542, R 7527, N 8099, total 20182, R +2985
Incumbent: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens, unopposed
Shaw
easily (65-35%) defeated primary challenger Maison Bleam, a recent
UIowa grad who was student government president. The unusual thing about
this primary challenge was that unlike the others, the challenger was
the moderate and the incumbent was the hard-right candidate. The primary
was marked by personal attacks and whisper campaigns about Bleam.
Shaw
replaced conservaDem Dolores Mertz, who barely won in 2008 and retired
in 2010. He got paired up with five-term leadership favorite Dave
Tjepkes, who didn't announce his retirement till January 10, one of the
last paired legislators to make plans public. No love lost there, as
Tjepkes endorsed Bleam.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Committee to Elect Tom Shaw
Senate District 5, House District 9 & 10: District of the Day 1 - 4/29/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Matt Alcazar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Alcazar. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 5, Iowa House District 9 & 10
Senate District 5
Registration: D 12757, R 13356, N 16515, total 42659, R +599
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge; holdover seat
Beall won a third term in 2010 in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a slightly Republican district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know
those new constituents.
People for Beall finance reports
The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.
House District 9
Registration: D 7645, R 5535, N 7081, total 20278, D +2110
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge; rematch of 2010 race
This is what I call The District Draws Itself: Iowa law requires that cities and counties be kept whole whenever possible. An ideal House District size is 30,538, and when you have a city or county just short of that size, it dominates whatever else is combined with it. The Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206, so that pretty much settles things. Miller keeps her entire old district, which she's held since 2002, and adds three townships to balance the population and maintain roughly the same Democratic edge.
Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time in one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Yet Matt Alcazar, a tea partier who had started out running as an independent before switching to the GOP line, almost pulled it off in the zeitgeist that was 2010.
With a more than 2000 registration edge for the Democrats, this isn't completely out of reach but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
House District 10
Registration: D 5112, R 7821, N 9434, total 22381, R +2709
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens (Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie, retiring); Primary challenge
Tea partier Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of conservaDem Dolores Mertz in 2008. Shaw then took over with ease in the general as Mertz retired.
Shaw got paired up with five-term leadership favorite Dave Tjepkes, who didn't announce his retirement till January 10. Shaw had a reputation for working across party lines that may have actually disadvantaged him; there were rumors of a primary challenge even before Map Day.
So he's gone, but there's still going to be a primary here. Former University of Iowa student government president Maison Bleam announced his candidacy as "a different style of principled constitutional conservative." That's a polite way of saying that Shaw's taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. Still, this race seems like a heavy lift against an incumbent who won two hard-fought 2010 races and held off Tjepkes.
Shaw keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth. He picks up Calhoun and part of rural Webster from Tjepkes.
No Democratic names here yet; their best shot was probably with the open seat last cycle.
Campaign finance report: Committee to Elect Tom Shaw
Original post 4/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12757, R 13356, N 16515, total 42659, R +599
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge; holdover seat
Beall won a third term in 2010 in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a slightly Republican district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know
those new constituents.
People for Beall finance reports
The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.
House District 9
Registration: D 7645, R 5535, N 7081, total 20278, D +2110
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge; rematch of 2010 race
This is what I call The District Draws Itself: Iowa law requires that cities and counties be kept whole whenever possible. An ideal House District size is 30,538, and when you have a city or county just short of that size, it dominates whatever else is combined with it. The Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206, so that pretty much settles things. Miller keeps her entire old district, which she's held since 2002, and adds three townships to balance the population and maintain roughly the same Democratic edge.
Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time in one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Yet Matt Alcazar, a tea partier who had started out running as an independent before switching to the GOP line, almost pulled it off in the zeitgeist that was 2010.
With a more than 2000 registration edge for the Democrats, this isn't completely out of reach but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
House District 10
Registration: D 5112, R 7821, N 9434, total 22381, R +2709
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens (Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie, retiring); Primary challenge
Tea partier Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of conservaDem Dolores Mertz in 2008. Shaw then took over with ease in the general as Mertz retired.
Shaw got paired up with five-term leadership favorite Dave Tjepkes, who didn't announce his retirement till January 10. Shaw had a reputation for working across party lines that may have actually disadvantaged him; there were rumors of a primary challenge even before Map Day.
So he's gone, but there's still going to be a primary here. Former University of Iowa student government president Maison Bleam announced his candidacy as "a different style of principled constitutional conservative." That's a polite way of saying that Shaw's taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. Still, this race seems like a heavy lift against an incumbent who won two hard-fought 2010 races and held off Tjepkes.
Shaw keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth. He picks up Calhoun and part of rural Webster from Tjepkes.
No Democratic names here yet; their best shot was probably with the open seat last cycle.
Campaign finance report: Committee to Elect Tom Shaw
Original post 4/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Rematch in Ft. Dodge House Race
Rematch in Ft. Dodge House Race
Fort Dodge Republican Matt Alcazar has announced a second try for the Iowa House, challenging Rep. Helen Miller in House District 9.
This was one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar last cycle. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Alcazar had initially announced as a tea-flavored independent before switching and filing on the Republican line. But amid the zeitgeist of 2010 he almost pulled it off, holding Miller to 52%.
The lines change very little in redistricting, as Fort Dodge's population is in The District Draws Itself range: An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Fort Dodge census population is 25,206, about 5/6 of that. The entire old district stays in the new and three townships are added to balance the population. Under the new lines, Democrats had an April registration edge of about 2400. Not completely unwinnable for the GOP, but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
Fort Dodge Republican Matt Alcazar has announced a second try for the Iowa House, challenging Rep. Helen Miller in House District 9.
This was one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar last cycle. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Alcazar had initially announced as a tea-flavored independent before switching and filing on the Republican line. But amid the zeitgeist of 2010 he almost pulled it off, holding Miller to 52%.
The lines change very little in redistricting, as Fort Dodge's population is in The District Draws Itself range: An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Fort Dodge census population is 25,206, about 5/6 of that. The entire old district stays in the new and three townships are added to balance the population. Under the new lines, Democrats had an April registration edge of about 2400. Not completely unwinnable for the GOP, but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
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