Showing posts with label Ross Paustian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ross Paustian. Show all posts

Sunday, August 19, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 46, Iowa House District 91 & 92

Senate District 46
Registration: D 11197, R 11644, N 15741, total 38595, R +447
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Dixon

Back on Map Day I didn't expect this one to go to a primary between fellow GOP incumbents Hamerlinck and Jim Hahn. Hamerlinck lives close to the district line and works in Clinton, so empty Senate 49 would have worked. Hahn turns 76 by Election Day 2012, and could have retired.

But instead the two duked it out in a half and half district. Hamerlinck won Scott by more than Hahn won Muscatine, for a fairly easy 61-39 win.

Democrats are ready to take on the survivor with Muscatine firefighter Chris Brase. The primary results helps, if you look at it as a Muscatine vs, Davenport thing rather than a D vs. R thing. This is the number 22 most Democratic Senate seat -- actually, probably less so, as GOP registration was boosted by the primary. In any case it's the toughest being defended by an incumbent Republican.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Committee to Elect Shawn Hamerlinck, Committee to Elect Chris Brase Brase has a big lead with $29,297.05in the bank. Hamerlinck spent $13,089.81 during the filing period, which includes the end of the primary, and has just $3,255.95 on hand.

House District 91
Registration: D 5688, R 6116, N 7385, total 19197, R +428
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP. He beat the first Democrat to hold the set in decades, three termer Nathan Reichert, by 1500 votes.

This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofgren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer: right on the line of House control, as Democratic seat 52 and Republican seat 49.

Democrats have recruited John Dabeet, chair of the Muscatine Community College business department. In a helpful pronunciation aid, his parade crew marches to that Go-Go's classic, "We Got Dabeet." No I'm not joking. But for my money no one will ever top Ro Foege's Ro-tilla of Ro Boats.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Committee to Elect John Dabeet, Team LOFGREN Lofgren has a solid $18,355.74 on hand. Dabeet trails at $3,217.64.

House District 92
Registration: D 5509, R 5528, N 8356, total 19398, R +19
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

In with the wave, out with the wave. No one really gave Democrat Elesha Gayman a chance in 2006, when she shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen and set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature. She won a tough battle with Farm Bureau-backed republican Ross Paustian in 2008, then unexpectedly stepped down just before the 2010 deadline and moved out of state.
Paustian had never stopped running. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious 2010 effort, but Paustian won with 57%.

The lines shifts north in Davenport (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. It The district keeps almost the same lean on paper. It's Republican by 19 voters now, the second closest margin in the state, but that's after high primary turnout in the Senate race.

The Democrat, former senator Frank Wood, is attempting a comeback on the House side. Wood narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Paustian for State House, Wood for State House Advantage Paustian, with $24,609.54 on hand to Wood's $6,171.78.

Senate District 46, House District 91 & 92: District of the Day 1 - 6/27/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

Saturday, March 17, 2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 46, Iowa House District 91 & 92

Senate District 46
Registration: D 12899, R 12635, N 18487, total 44037, D +264
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Dixon and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

How many of us assumed on Map Day that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, would step down and cede this seat to Shawn Hamerlinck? Or that Hamerlinck, who works in Clinton and lives almost on the line of no-incumbent Senate 49, would move?

Didn't happen, so we have the only two incumbent Senate primary, between two Republicans on turf that leans Democratic.

This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

This primary has rippled into the 2nd CD congressional race. Counter-intuitively, Hahn has endorsed the Quad City based candidate, John Archer, while Hamerlinck is supporting Muscatine's Dan Dolan. That ought to muddy the friends and neighbors dynamic.

Democrats are ready to take on the survivor with Muscatine firefighter Chris Brase, who seems to be a Tom Courtney recruit. Courtney's from the safe adjacent district to the south so he's likely to help out.

On the January 19 campaign finance report, Committee to Elect Jim Hahn had $6594 in hand, raised $2450, and reported no spending. Committee to Elect Shawn Hamerlinck raised $7,088.00, spent $7358, and had $2261 in the bank. Committee to Elect Chris Brase had just gotten started with $500.

House District 91
Registration: D 6341, R 6553, N 8506, total 21408, R +212
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP. He beat the first Democrat to hold the set in decades, three termer Nathan Reichert, by 1500 votes.

This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofgren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

Democrats have recruited John Dabeet, chair of the Muscatine Community College business department. Dabeet is of Palestinian heritage and Democrats felt the need to emphasize that he is a Christian.

This seat is definitely winnable for a Democrat in a good year, as Muscatine is trending blue, but it'll take some work as Muscatine is historically low turnout.

Campaign finance reports: Team Lofgren

House District 92
Registration: D 6558, R 6082, N 9981, total 22629, D +476
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman had a shot in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature. And no one really expected her to retire - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline.

Republican Ross Paustian had never stopped running. He was briefly reported as a winner on Election Night 2008, but absentees put Gayman over the top. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious 2010 effort, but Paustian won with 57%.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help former senator Frank Wood, who is attempting a comeback on the House side. Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

Paustian for State House was off to an early money lead, with $16,596 on hand on the January 19 report to Wood for State House's $4432.

Original post 6/27/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Pearson Draws First Challenger

Pearson Draws First Challenger

This beats a Geri Huser comeback: Democrat Joe Riding, now in the middle of a second term on the Altoona City Council, has announced as a Democrat in House District 30.

That's the turf of controversial conservative Kim Pearson, who pulled off a huge 2010 upset when she knocked off conservaDem Huser by 126 votes, with just 48.5% of the vote in a three way race.

Pearson has been a conservative first and a Republican second and has been the highest profile House freshman. She starred in a lengthy Register profile focused on her uncompromising approach.

Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad match for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here.)
“Our current political system is broken, with too many legislators putting their own partisan ideology before the needs of their constituents,” Riding said today. “Growing up in a family business has taught me important values, like working with others to find pragmatic solutions to problems. I am running to bring some needed civility and common sense back to the statehouse for the citizens of Eastern Polk County.”

The district sheds its piece of Jasper County and pulls all the way into eastern Polk. The changes actually help Pearson: her old district had a Democratic registration edge of 1200, which drops to just 100 under the new lines.

But as I noted at District Of The Day time: "The difference between a protest vote for a relative unknown in 2010 and a vote to re-elect a controversial known quantity in 2012 will matter more than the lines." I wouldn't be surprised to see primaries in both parties for this seat. Huser drew a labor challenge in 2008, and the GOP may worry that Pearson can't hang on against presidential turnout. Or, given the testy relationship between Pearson and the party leadership, they may not care.



Also noted: Walcott Republican Ross Paustian announces for a second term in House 92. Paustian lost to Elesha Gayman in 2008 before winning the open seat in `10. He's already got a Democratic challenger in former senator Frank Wood.

Monday, June 27, 2011

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

Senate District 46

Registration: D 12145, R 11684, N 16335, total 40178, D + 461
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Davenport and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

Our last week of District Of The Day begins with our last two-incumbent seat. A different pair of House districts gets combined, pairing up two Republican senators from two different counties. This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Making matters worse, it's a swing district with a very slight Democratic tilt, and both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, and the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

Hamerlinck had kept a relatively low profile until a couple weeks back, when he told a delegation of students testifying about education funding to "go home." Most bets are that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, calls it quits. Will Hamerlinck also "go home" after 2012?

House District 91

Registration: D 6054, R 6166, N 7394, total 19620, R+ 112
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine.

When Hahn went to the Senate in 2004, Republican Barry Brauns tried a comeback after a two-year hiatus. But Nathan Reichert, who had run an unexpectedly close race in a 1995 special election for county auditor, won a big upset to become the first Democrat to take the Muscatine district in recent memory. He stayed atop the target list but beat the incumbent sheriff in 2006 and a city council member in 2008, only to sink beneath the wave in 2010. (Reichert may be interested in a comeback, either here or in the Senate race.)

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP, winning by 1500 votes. This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

House District 92

Registration: D 6091, R 5518, N 8941, total 20558, D + 573
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman to have a chance in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature.

Gayman had a target on her back from day one in this rural-urban split district in northwest Davenport and western Scott County. Republicans recruited Farm Bureau leader Ross Paustian. But Gayman, who was briefly reported as a loser on Election Night 2008 until the absentees came in, held Paustian to 47% in the Obama wave.

Gayman's retirement - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline was just as surprising as her election. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%. He's kept a relatively low profile his first session.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help Frank Wood, who joins Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive as former Democratic Senators attempting comebacks on the House side. (Anyone checked in with Staci Appel?) Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Wood announces in House 92

Wood announces in House 92

House District 92 isn't up till a week from Monday on District of the Day, but former senator Frank Wood has moved my deadline up by announcing his candidacy. The Eldridge Democrat is likely to face freshman Ross Paustian, R-Walcott.

Wood spent six four years in the Senate representing western Scott County before losing to Shawn "Go Home" Hamerlinck in 2008. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

This seat in northwest Davenport and western Scott County, which changes little in redistricting, is closely divided, leaning slightly Democratic. It's changed parties twice in three cycles. Democrat Elesha Gayman had the seat for two terms, beating GOP incumbent Jim (Dad) Van Fossen in 2006 and Paustian in 2008. Gayman announced her retirement days before the 2010 filing deadline. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%.

In what's becoming a pattern, Wood is the third defeated Democratic Senator to announce for a House seat, joining Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive.

(As for District of the Day, the rough draft is now finished through District 50, 99 and 100. I've been doing almost nothing but redistricting since Map Day, and suggestions about What Next within the limited travel budget of the Deeth Blog Mobile News Unit are welcome.)