District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98



Senate District 49

Registration: D 13524, R 10139, N 16918, total 40602, D+ 3385
No Incumbent (?)

There's already an announced candidate for this seat and a second contender mulling it over, even though we don't even know if it will be on next year's ballot. Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.

Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.

The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half. Naeve actually won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes. Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson County, which is now gone. And there squats the toad, because Bowman is paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth up in new Senate 29.

Naeve has already announced here. And Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm may or may not also be running on the GOP side.

But since Bowman was just elected last year, in an old district that overlaps this new district, he can hold over till 2014 if he moves south. Bowman can also hold over in District 29... but only if Hancock retires. (Hancock has to run either way, because his old district was even so his four year 2008 term expires.) The Democratic margin is better in District 29, and the two Democrats have till February to work things out. If no other candidate runs, perhaps former local businessman William Drayton may be interested.

House District 97

Registration: D 6174, R 5931, N 9044, total 21161, D+ 243
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt

Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn . He got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008 but then went unopposed in 2010, which shouldn't happen in what was a near even swing seat.

And it still is a swing seat, getting even a little more Democratic. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.

House District 98

Registration: D 7350, R 4208, N 7874, total 19441, D+ 3142
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton

The District Draws Itself, Boyee: In the 2000 Census, the city of Clinton dropped below 1 percent of the state population for the first time, and instead of getting split down the middle got kept together. That meant a pair-up of Republican Clyde Bradley and Democrat Polly Bukta, but Bradley retired.

When Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short.

Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.

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District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

Senate District 46

Registration: D 12145, R 11684, N 16335, total 40178, D + 461
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Davenport and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

Our last week of District Of The Day begins with our last two-incumbent seat. A different pair of House districts gets combined, pairing up two Republican senators from two different counties. This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Making matters worse, it's a swing district with a very slight Democratic tilt, and both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, and the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

Hamerlinck had kept a relatively low profile until a couple weeks back, when he told a delegation of students testifying about education funding to "go home." Most bets are that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, calls it quits. Will Hamerlinck also "go home" after 2012?

House District 91

Registration: D 6054, R 6166, N 7394, total 19620, R+ 112
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine.

When Hahn went to the Senate in 2004, Republican Barry Brauns tried a comeback after a two-year hiatus. But Nathan Reichert, who had run an unexpectedly close race in a 1995 special election for county auditor, won a big upset to become the first Democrat to take the Muscatine district in recent memory. He stayed atop the target list but beat the incumbent sheriff in 2006 and a city council member in 2008, only to sink beneath the wave in 2010. (Reichert may be interested in a comeback, either here or in the Senate race.)

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP, winning by 1500 votes. This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

House District 92

Registration: D 6091, R 5518, N 8941, total 20558, D + 573
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman to have a chance in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature.

Gayman had a target on her back from day one in this rural-urban split district in northwest Davenport and western Scott County. Republicans recruited Farm Bureau leader Ross Paustian. But Gayman, who was briefly reported as a loser on Election Night 2008 until the absentees came in, held Paustian to 47% in the Obama wave.

Gayman's retirement - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline was just as surprising as her election. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%. He's kept a relatively low profile his first session.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help Frank Wood, who joins Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive as former Democratic Senators attempting comebacks on the House side. (Anyone checked in with Staci Appel?) Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

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District of the Day: Senate District 44, House Districts 87 and 88

District of the Day: Senate District 44, House Districts 87 and 88



Senate District 44

Registration: D 15807, R 10288, N 13113, total 39229, D+ 5519
Incumbent: Tom Courtney, D-Burlington

Here's a good illustration of the ripple effect of redistricting. A triple-up two districts to the west in 2001 led to significantly different lines for Gene Fraise of Fort Madison and an empty district in Burlington. The beneficiary was Tom Courtney, who slid comfortably into the seat without without GOP opposition (he beat an independent Some Dude) in 2002 and no opposition at all two years later. The Republicans finally tried in `08; David Kerr only scored 40% but carried Louisa.

The revised district keeps Des Moines and Louisa counties intact. Courtney also keeps a chunk of western Muscatine County, which grows. Despite that the party margin is almost identical.

But it's polarized; the Courtney Senate seat is made of of one heavily Democratic House seat and another that's dead even.

House District 87

Registration: D 9569, R 4099, N 6322, total 20006, D+ 5470
Incumbent: Dennis Cohoon, D-Burlington

Another District Draws Itself seat; Burlington's population is 84% of ideal House district size. West Burlington historically was carved off, but now they're together and are 94% of a district. Lose three townships to the north, add one on the south, and that's Dennis Cohoon's district. He's been in the House since 1987 and sometimes gets an opponent. Some Dude Dave Selmon actually held Cohoon to 59% in last year's toxic climate.

House District 88

Registration: D 6238, R 6189, N 6791, total 19223, D+ 49
Incumbent: Tom Sands, R-Wapello

The Des Moines Register recently dubbed part of this district "the Hispanic Highway" - Iowa Highway 70 from West Liberty to Nichols, Conesville, and the Columbus Junction area. This is the descendent of the district I ran in two maps ago, though I moved north and it moved south. Espanol was already common at the door 15 years ago, and this census both West Liberty and Conesville reported Hispanic majorities in the census with Columbus Junction just short at 48%.

The current version of the district got a bizarre start in 2002. My former opponent, Barry Brauns, got paired up with fellow Republican Jim Hahn in a very unbalanced pair: Hahn's whole district plus Brauns' one precinct. He "moved" to a post office box in Nichols, then bailed on the race just after the primary. (Brauns "moved back" soon after to try for a comeback, but we'll discuss that Monday.)

The subsequent Republican convention nominated banker Tom Sands, then of Columbus Junction (he's now moved downstream to Wapello). Democrats look at the lines in Des Moines County and hope for the best, and have made some credible efforts, but Sands has lasted a decade now. The toughest challenge was in 2008, when former Columbus City mayor Frank Best held him to just 53%. Despite that, Sands got a bye in 2010.

Sands keeps the same basic configuration, with Louisa as the core of the district. In Des Moines County, he keeps the rural and small towns west of the city, but loses West Burlington to Cohoon. The seat expands north geographically, making up for population loss; no place was hit harder by the 2008 flood than Louisa County. Sands adds most of the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa, Moscow, and rural Wilton, though the city of Wilton itself stays with Jeff Kaufmann. Sands keeps Nichols and Conesville in western Muscatine but drops Fruitland (the fruit in question would be melons) south of Muscatine city.

The result is a dead-even swing seat. Democrats are hoping to recruit Danville mayor Roger Doofenshmirtz, but Doofenschmirtz has not made his party preferences clear. Repeated scandals involving his older brother could also derail his campaign.

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District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72

District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72

Senate District 36

Registration: D 12112, R 12376, N 14570, total 39075, R+ 264
Incumbent: Steve Sodders, D-State Center

Sodders keeps all of his home base, Marshall County, which makes up two-thirds of this seat. The old district had all of Hardin County and the tiny piece of Ackley in Franklin County. The district moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.

Sodders took a Republican-leaning seat from the GOP in 2008 when Larry McKibben retired, winning by more than 3,000 votes. 2008 was a Democratic wave, of course, and Sodders was fortunate not to be on the ballot in 2010. The new lines will help him in 2012, as he sheds 1500 Republicans and this becomes a true swing seat.

House District 71

Registration: D 5988, R 5687, N 6553, total 18234, D+ 301
Incumbent: Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown

The District Draws Itself: With a census population of 27,552, Marshalltown is 90.4% of ideal district size. Even the rural part stays almost the same, adding one township and keeping the communities of Albion and Liscomb.

Democrat Mark Smith is the beneficiary of this geopolitical and numeric serendipity, and of course the partisan balance barely changes. This remains a swing seat, as it's been for years (one upside of The District Draws Itself is comparisons across decades are possible). There was a 58 vote race here in 1992, and Smith won the seat in 2000 by knocking off three term Republican Beverly Nelson-Forbes by just 275. He settled in to the point where he was unopposed in 2004 and 2006, and beat Republican Jane Jech by more than 1700 in 2008. But in a rematch with Jech against the 2010 GOP wave, Smith survived by just a 303 vote margin.

House District 72

Registration: D 6124, R 6689, N 8017, total 20841, R+ 565
Open seat; incumbent: Lance Horbach, R-Tama, not seeking re-election

Tama County has been the core of a district for a few maps, but always seems to get partnered toward a different compass point. Horbach won his first term by nine (!) votes over Democrat Bill Brand in 1998. (If I remember right, election night had Horbach ahead by two.) That district ran east into Benton County. Four years later, Horbach's turf shifted northwest as the district gained all of Grundy (and lost the southeast corner of Tama County around Chelsea). This decade Tama County is whole again, but gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and west of Marshalltown. (This probably means a Tama-Poweshiek district in 2021 since every other direction has been done.) It also adds what looks like the leftovers of Black Hawk County: two rural townships and La Porte City. "The long skinny shape of Big Creek Township gives this district a little panhandle, which I like," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering.

What this district won't have is Horbach, who announced before The Map was even released that he's not running in 2012. Whoever does run will get a district that's significantly less Republican. The old Tama-Grundy seat had a GOP registration edge of almost 2500, and Horbach had gradually settled into the comfort of uncontested races. This new district has a Republican registration margin of just 565.


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District of the Day: Senate District 27, House Districts 53 and 54

District of the Day: Senate District 27, House Districts 53 and 54



Senate District 27

Registration: D 11714, R 13115, N 16017, total 40865, R+ 1401
Incumbent: Amanda Ragan, D-Mason City

Fellow Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm's gain is Ragan's loss. Ragan keeps Mason City, but her new turf goes south and west instead of north and east. She drops Floyd and Mitchell counties and gains Franklin, the northern part of Butler, and the western, Clear Lake half of Cerro Gordo.

The old district lines gave Ragan a 2500 Democrat voter registration edge. Under the new lines that turns into a deficit of 1400.

Ragan, 56, won a hurry-up special during the 2002 session and her first full term that fall. The only good news for Ragan is she was just re-elected two to one over a weak opponent in 2010, so she holds over till 2014.

House District 53

Registration: D 7244, R 4642, N 8426, total 20322, D+ 2602
Incumbent: Sharon Steckman, D-Mason City

The Lines Draw Themselves: The ideal House district size is 1 percent of the state population. In the 1990s Mason City was just above that size, and got split down Highway 18 to dominate two districts. But in 2000 the population dropped to just 91 people less than the perfect size, and at that point the rules keep cities together and Mason City WAS the district.

This decade, the seat adds a township on the north and three on the south plus the city of Rockwall, splitting Cerro Gordo into a vertically striped configuration. But that doesn't change things politically; incumbent Sharon Steckman keeps roughly the same Democratic edge.

This was probably the most Democratic district held by Republicans for most of the 2000s. The representatives for the two halves of town both got paired up in 2002 and both quit. Republican Roger Broers, then in his first term after years on the Board of Supervisors,  was expected to run again, but stepped down for health reasons right before the deadline (by election day he had passed away).

Bill Schickel was the late-starting Republican. Democrats attempted to nudge their candidate aside to recruit a stronger candidate for the now-open seat... but the candidate wouldn't be nudged. So Schickel, in a mild upset, won the seat by about 500 votes. The Democrats made two more decent efforts, but were never able to knock him off.

Schickel stepped down in 2008, and is now keeping occupied on the Republican state central committee. As for the district, it finally turned Democratic. Steckman (whose husband had been Schickel's opponent two years earlier) won comfortably.

House District 54

Registration: D 4470, R 8473, N 7591, total 20543, R+ 4003
No Incumbent UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move into this seat.

House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has her name on this district. She's looking to move to Clear Lake to get out of the triple-up with Stew Iverson and Henry Rayhons.

In addition to a new house Upmeyer would get nearly 2000 more Republicans, and she could safely focus on the duties of leadership like recruiting, fundraising, and campaigning for others.

She and the district would move out of Hancock County to keep western Cerro Gordo, including Clear Lake, and all of Franklin County. The new turf adds northern Butler County from Pat Grassley's district (Grassley of course has his own problems, namely Annette Sweeney, who might have been able to move here if Upmeyer hadn't called dibs).

But complicating matters, Craig Robinson notes: "Gabe Haugland, a dynamic young conservative who has been active in Republican politics and is back from a recent deployment in Afghanistan, wants to run for the Iowa House in House District 54, an open seat that includes Clear Lake, where he lives." It depends on how badly Upmeyer wants to move to the lake and how badly the 75 year old Rayhons wants to stay in office. In any case, with these numbers the Democrats are kind of an afterthought here.


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District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10

District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10



Senate District 5

Registration: D 12,744, R 12,705, N 15,365, total 40,846, D+ 39
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge

Beall won a third term last year in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a dead-even district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes go north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know those new constituents.

The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.

House District 9

Registration: D 7625, R 5253, N 6484, total 19378, D+ 2372
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge

Update September 11: Alcazar running again.

Very little change for Miller in the district she's held since 2002. She keeps her entire old district and adds three townships to maintain roughly the same Democratic edge. This is one of those ones where the district lines practically draw themselves. An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206.

Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time against Matt Alcazar, a tea partier opponent who had started out running as an independent. Speaking of tea partiers who started out running as independents...

House District 10

Registration: D 5119, R 7452, N 8881, total 21468, R+ 2333
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens, and Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie January 10: Tjepkes retires.

Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and then took over with ease in the general as conservaDem Dolores Mertz retired. Shaw, age 49, has taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson: uber-purist on abortion, joining the late session Supreme Court impeachment effort. He keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth.

Tjepkes, age 67, hails from Gowrie in rural Webster County. He first won old district 50 in the last year lines were redone, 2002. He keeps Calhoun County but loses all of Greene County, which instead goes with Boone County into freshman Republican Chip Baltimore's seat. Tjepkes was was a 64% winner in 2008 and unopposed in 2010.

Tjepkes took the opposite approach to Shaw on marriage equality, as one of four House Republicans who did not co-sponsor the constitutional amendment (though he, along with all Republicans and sadly three Democrats, ended up voting for it). This had some folks talking primary challenge even before the map came out.

The two paired incumbents are from opposite corners of the district. The new seat is more Republican than either of the old seats. With the Senate seat on the odd cycle, a run at Beall is only an option if one of the two House members stands down for two years. Tjepkes could go east into new 48, where technically Democrat Lisa Heddens lives (but she's expected to go with most of her voters in the open 46 in Ames), but there's very little overlap with the old Tjepkes turf and it's a swing seat.

Shaw could go north a couple miles into the open district 2, but there's no overlap at all with his old turf and, while it's a good GOP district, the new one he's in is better. Shaw didn't back down from a contested primary last time, and the tea party favorite beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of Mertz in 2008.

On Map Day, Tjepkes said he was inclined to run, while Shaw declined comment. desmoinesdem bets on party establishment support leading to a Tjepkes primary win, but in a GOP primary my money is always on the crazy.

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