New Hampshire to Announce Wednesday

A Date for a Date

"Secretary of State Gardner will officially announce the date of the 2012 New Hampshire Presidential Primary on Wednesday, November 2, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. in Room 204 of the State House."

All bets still on January 10, not that it matters to Iowa anymore.

Wile we're at it, filing has concluded for the primary without (for the moment) a date, and another fine New Hampshire tradition is a large field of, errrr, colorful candidates. Here's the full list (.pdf alert). My favorite is the last name on the list, perennial candidate Vermin Supreme (D-MA), who judging from the look of his web site has been running since at least 1996. Wonder if he's supporting urban chickens in his platform.

In other news, the 2012 VP debate will be in Danville (KY), with Mayor Roger Doofenschmirtz moderating. Behold, the Debatinator!

Press-Citizen Coralville Endorsements

Weihe, Gross, Dodds.

Interesting observation driving through Coralville. I saw yards with Weihe and Gross signs. I saw Fausett, Gross. I saw Dodds, Gross. I saw Snyder, Gross. I always saw Gross.

It's voting day at the Coralville Library, stop by till 8:30. Yes, Iowa City, UHeights and everyone else can vote too.

GOP Caucuses: Welcome to 1996

Splintered Field Helps Romney

As a self-respecting Iowa political writer I have no choice but to comment on this morning's Iowa Poll of the GOP caucus field. My 140 character take on the top line last night: "Herman Cain: This month's way of saying Not Mitt." That may be better for Cain than my take on his announcement: "Morrie Taylor+Alan Keyes=Herman Cain."

Sorry for flashing back to 1996 there with the Taylor and Keyes references. But more and more, compared to all of caucus history, this contest is starting to look like that year. The Democratic side is uncontested and the Republican field is splintered. The poll's top line numbers:

Cain 23
Romney 22
Paul 12
Bachmann 8
Perry 7
Gingrich 7
Santorum 5
Huntsman 1

Eerily similar to the 1996 final results:

Dole 26
Buchanan 23
Alexander 18
Forbes 10
Gramm 9
Keyes 7
Lugar 4
Taylor 1
Dornan < 1

Once upon a time, I had a little money.
Government burglars took it long
before I could mail it to you.
Still, you are the only one.
Now I can't let it slip away.
So if the man with the ticker tape,
he tries to take it,
well this is what I'm gonna say.

Blame it on Cain.
Don't blame it on me.
Oh, oh, it's nobody's fault,
but we need somebody to burn.

Sounds like a concise description of 9-9-9 to me. And as Michele Bachmann says, 9-9-9 upside down is...


Need to get that all-important Republican caucus Satanist vote.

Perhaps Newt's 7% is just 6.66% rounded up.

But back to Elvis Costello. He changes the last line of the chorus to conclude the song:

Blame it on Cain.
Don't blame it on me.
Oh, oh, it's nobody's fault,
but it just seems to be his turn.

That's how Republicans choose their nominees, and the other names who might have claimed that inheritance (Huckabee, Palin) aren't in. That leaves only Mittens, and while he may be a reluctant choice, so was Dole in `96.

The Pizza Man is peaking right this minute. (UPDATE: Didn't think he'd crash THIS fast. That's even faster than Bachmann post-Ames.) I'm not being flip, I really do think "Cain" is just the latest way to say "Not Romney".

(There's a Godfather's just two blocks from my home and we never go there. Not a political boycott - does ANYONE know if the pro-choice Domino's boycott is still on? - but I had a bad experience with Godfather's in Toledo, Ohio in 1985 when our whole college speech team got sick off it. Of course, at that point in my life beer may have been involved.)

Santorum, who's quietly gathering social conservative support, will overperform. Not well enough to survive past New Hampshire, unless he happens to be the latest Not Romney around New Year's. But he'll bump that 5 up. Ron Paul will also overperform, benefiting from organization, fanatical devotion, and the inconvenient caucus date. You could have scheduled it Christmas morning and the Paulistas would be there. They'll also stick around past the non-binding presidential "vote" and pack the committees and delegate slates. So let's call that 12 more like 15 or 16 which is absolutely indigestible (like Godfather's Pizza) and will probably vote third party in November.

Perry is a big enough player that he'll keep some residual support. I don't see Bachmann or Gingrich pulling a Tom Tancredo and dropping out at the last minute.

Subtract a couple more points for Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Fred Karger and Buddy Roemer combined. Also, if I remember right (at least it was this way in 2008) the Republican caucus ballot is blank. All votes are write-in. That means X percent will be soaked up by die-hards for Huckabee or Palin or Christie or None Of The Above, thus lowering the percentage needed for a win.

It won't take much to "win" in a splintered field. Romney needs to work on the organization, and stop out here to say to bump that 22 up to say 24 or 26. That'll do, just like it did for Dole.

So, 1996 all over again. Two big differences: I'm definitely NOT running for the legislature this year, and please lord don't let the Macarena make a comeback.

Endorsement Season

Pols and Papers Pick People

I heard that Captain Steve was interested enough in my endorsement of him Friday to quote it on air. (Except my characterization of his sense of humor didn't quite translate from the original Throgmorton.) Here's some other endorsements that may or may not be of interest:

Supervisor Rod Sullivan has also made some picks and shared them with his email list (now available in blog format):

In the Iowa City at-large race, I support Matt Hayek and Raj Patel. I have had my share of disagreements with (Hayek's) stances on certain issues. But I know Matt makes his decisions for the right reasons, and not for personal gain. He is a stand up guy and a damn good mayor.

I have only gotten to know Raj over the past few months, but he impresses me. He is smart and works hard. It is amazing to me that Iowa City has gone 30 years without a student on the council. The problem has typically been that the student candidates were not up to the task. Not so this time - Raj Patel can do the job.

Halfway with you there, Rod. My second vote after Raj was a write-in, but I don't feel strongly enough about it to recommend it. Sullivan also puts in a good word for the unopposed Jim Throgmorton.

Speaking of Throg, he's also seen praising Patel:

To experience a new younger passionate voice causes one to stop, reflect and ask a simple question, “isn’t this the type of individual that creates a desire to participate?”

Makes up for the Dobyns thing, Jim. UPDATE from the comments: not everyone thinks so. Soboroff backer Eric Nygaard is urging a District C write-in vote for Dan Tallon, who announced for District C early in the year but left the race after returning from his military tour in Afghanistan. I like Dan a lot, and voted for him two years ago. But I've already voted for Jim and have no regrets. Like I said Friday, I've never voted for a candidate I agreed with 100% including the time I ran myself.

Also seen on the Patel page: Supervisor Janelle Rettig ("Raj is running an impressive campaign reaching out door to door to hear your ideas for continuing our growth as a vibrant place that is attractive to live, work, and play.”) and outgoing District A council member Ross Wilburn (“Please support Raj Patel for Iowa City Council as one of your general election choices. Raj is running an impressive campaign reaching out door to door to hear your ideas for continuing our growth as a vibrant place that is attractive to live, work, and play.”)

Speaking of Wilburn and District A, current Gazette writer and former political activist (we miss ya, Jen) attended a Dobyns-Soboroff forum and commented on the bipolar nature of District A, both the candidates and the district:

You almost wonder if the two candidates live in the same town. And technically, they do.

But Soboroff lives on the city’s southeast side. Dobyns on the west — areas of town that are as night-and-day different as the candidates themselves.

Both Soboroff and Dobyns give you the feeling they’d represent their parts of the city well.

But because District A is so sprawling, no matter who is elected, residents from one or another part of the district will once again have to go without a council representative with firsthand knowledge of their neighborhood’s challenges and strengths.

So District A voters have a clear choice to make during next month’s election. And something else is equally clear: It’s time to add a fourth district to Iowa City’s city council.

Interesting enough, but a couple points:

Both poles of the district have, or have had, representation in recent years. Longtime mayor Ernie Lehman, though he was so identified with his downtown business that I got the facts wrong for years, is a west sider. And if you think any group would be under-represented it'd be African Americans from the southeast side... but Ross Wilburn, who lives in the heart of the Weatherby neighborhood, has been there for 12 years including two as mayor.

You know who hasn't been represented in 32 years? Students. And part of that is because to get seated on the city council, you have to in the end win a city-wide election, and historically voters east of Governor and west of Sunset have been about as willing to back young candidates as white Mississipians are to support black candidates. If anyone can break that barrier, it's Patel, who already proved in the primary he can pull votes outside downtown.

Rettig makes an excellent argument against districting systems in local government: if a specific project like a road directly benefits only one geographic interest, and only one of the five or seven members has to win votes in that area, then the project will never get passed. True. The exception I'd make is if there's a historic pattern of a significant minority group being unable to gain representation -- say, African Americans in Mississippi. Or students in Iowa City.

I'm betting that Raj Patel, the most able and best organized young candidate in decades, can make the question moot. But if Patel doesn't win, it proves beyond doubt that it's impossible for a student-age candidate to win a city-wide election, and that city charter reform is necessary to achieve truly representative government in our city.

---

Johnson County is not just Iowa City, Senator Bob Dvorsky is fond of saying, and he and Fearless Leader Sue Dvorsky offer an endorsement of Coralville city council member Mitch Gross for re-election. A Jill Dodds sign has also been spotted at Casa Dvorsky.

The P-C backs North Liberty council incumbents Coleen Chipman, Terry Donahue and Chris Hoffman, and opposed the ballot issue to elect the council by wards. Some of the fizz seems to have gone out of that one; the one challenger, Matt Zacek, is from the same Fox Run neighborhood as the council majority. The P-C also endorses mayor Tom Salm, even though the office isn't on the ballot until 2013.

Other hot spots: Solon has a ballot issue to but the Brosh Funeral Home for city offices, the mayor's race is contested in Tiffin, and there are five write-in candidates in of all places Shueyville. But the big one, of course, is the Battle Of University Heights.

A Disappointing Endorsement

Unopposed Throgmorton Backs Dobyns in District A

Jim Throgmorton has got the easiest race in town. The former city council member was such a prohibitive favorite that he cleared the field, and will take over for Regenia Bailey in the District C seat with no opposition.

Jim's still running a campaign, though. He's doorknocking and has a website and signs, one in my yard.

But with no opposition, Throgmorton has a little extra time on his hands to get involved in the other two contests. And Thursday he emailed supporters with an endorsement in the District A race:

I have been very impressed by Rick Dobyns. You and I surely will not agree with Rick on every issue that comes up, but I have found him to be thoughtful, hardworking, and very knowledgeable about the issues that have been raised in the candidate forums. In many private conversations, I have also found him to have a generous spirit and engaging sense of humor. He would be a pleasure to work with on the City Council.

I am unable to make similar comments concerning his opponent, Steve Sobaroff. He and I have disagreed fundamentally on almost every important issue that's been discussed in the forums, and I think he would be very difficult to work with on the Council.

Now, I've never once voted for a candidate I agreed with 100 percent, and that includes the time I ran myself. But I've got to note my disagreement with Jim here.

Throgmorton was a solid old-school Iowa City style progressive during his two years on the council in the mid-90s. Those were the glory days, when we were one seat away from Mayor Karen Kubby.

But around the turn of the century, Iowa City progressives developed a self-righteous, moralistic, in loco parentis streak in the name of "public health" and started to scrub and sanitize and neuter the city. I'm not attributing this to Jim, but I see it in the candidate he supports.

We've heard time and again in the marriage equality debate that a majority shouldn't be able to take cherished rights away from a minority. We hear in the death penalty argument that standing on principle is not an endorsement of the specific crime. I wholeheartedly agree.

But what happens when the rights someone cherishes are less high-minded? What if the right a large minority of voting age adults cherishes is the right to have a beer and a smoke in a bar?

Then all of a sudden "progressives" are either silent or openly in opposition. Rather than defend the idea that an 18 year old is an adult, one leading "progressive" conducted Sunday morning "puke-tours" of downtown, attacking admittedly bad behavior but ignoring higher principles and, frankly, demonizing young people.

The smoking debates were even worse than the bar wars. They were less anti-smokING and more anti-smokER, with the Public Health Uber Alles police unable to speak for more than two sentences without their clear, gut-level contempt for smokers coming out. All their knowledge of the science and nature of addiction was forgotten under their personal disgust.

And no Iowa Citian epitomized that mindset more than Dr. Rick Dobyns. Other "progressives" were followers, but Dobyns led the unsuccessful 21 bar fight in 2007. That fight, at the local level, appears to be done for now, at least until we deal with a jail next year. Even Raj Patel doesn't want to revisit it, preferring to focus on the reality of post-21 downtown. (He's more grown up about it than me. I've held some grudges longer than Raj has been alive.).

But which side you were on still matters. It says a lot about your respect, or contempt, for the citizens -- ALL of the citizens -- of your city. And there was a lot of contempt for young people in the Bar Wars. That specific issue was just the largest example of what I call the Love The Hawkeyes Hate The Students mentality, a theme Steve Soboroff is addressing in his call for a more "student friendly" Iowa City.

From what I hear Rick Dobyns is a good physician; he's treated my friends and former family members and I hope he has lots of time to continue his practice. And lots of liberals give him a pass because he's a "public health advocate" who occasionally shows up at a Democratic fundraiser.

But I just don't think it's "progressive" to support, advocate, and lead a fight to take rights away from people, even if or especially if they're rights you don't personally care for.

I'm struck by the diamond shape of the Dobyns signs. Trim the corners and you have an octagon: a stop sign. Steve Soboroff doesn't have signs and I'd love a Stop Dobyns sign for my yard. I could easily find the, um,  raw materials to make one in a lot of west side yards... naah, too many people know where I live and I suspect Rick wouldn't have a sense of humor about it. Blogger Charged With Stealing Signs is not a headline I need.

Steve Soboroff is by no means a progressive. He's cantankerous and politically incorrect. He doesn't have a "generous spirit and engaging sense of humor." But at least Steve seems to hold everyone in equal contempt, rather than focusing his contempt on the politically powerless young community like the Wellness Police do. I wish Steve was running a more conventional campaign, or at least the Gonzo Campaign, with the tools of ads and ballot drives that you actually need.

It felt really strange marking my ballot for Steve Soboroff. It was like two years ago, when I told a Republican friend I had voted for student candidates Jeff Shipley and Dan Tallon, instead of overwhelming winners Terry "Don't Beg In Front Of My Jewelry Store" Dickens and Susan Mims. My friend said "Deeth, you voted No." (I responded that No was a mild way to put it and a raised middle finger would be more accurate.)

So that's what I did. I voted No. I voted Stop Rick Dobyns.

Please join me in voting for Steve Soboroff.

Zumbach announces in Senate 48

Instant Lame Duck Gets Primary ?

Republican Cindy Golding has already pulled off the rare trick of being a lame duck before even getting elected. Now she's got a primary challenger, too.

At least one Republican lacks enough confidence in Golding's chances in the Battle of Marion special election that he's entering the race for the district Golding hopes to run in next fall. (Update: Bleeding Heartland now notes that there may be two, with Some Dude Brian Cook considering the race as well.)

Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan, in Delaware County, started looking at Senate 48 as far back as July and filed a campaign organization statement (pdf) in August, long before there was any hint that Democrat Swati Dandekar was resigning.

A refresher on geography: New Senate District 48 has very little overlap with Old Senate 18. The districts share just three townships - Fayette, rural Marion,and Monroe - and the city of Palo. The new turf then sprawls into northern and eastern Linn County, most of the population of Jones County, and all the way up into Delaware and Buchanan.

The Republican nominee in the Battle Of Marion, Cindy Golding, lives in Monroe Township - in old District 18 but NOT in new District 34, which includes Marion city and the vast majority of old Senate 18. Democrat Liz Mathis, of rural Robins, and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack, of Hiawatha, both live in bth old 18 and new 34.

Golding has already announced that, if elected on November 8, she will seek re-election not in new District 34, where most of her constituents live, but in District 48, where she owns a very, very, very nice house. Rep. Nate Willems (D-Lisbon) announced for Senate 48 shortly after The Map was approved.

So even though it was kind of public knowledge that Zumbach was running, why emphasize it now? Why shoot out a press-release now, just 12 days before the special election, that got picked up by both the Dubuque Telegraph Herald and the Register? It suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations.

Two Options For Dems

By coincidence I see two non-Obama caucus related items in one day.

The first is just plain monkeywrenching:

Anti-abortion activist Randall Terry is bringing his campaign for president to Iowa, including a stop this morning in front of City Hall in downtown Cedar Rapids.

Terry doesn’t expect to win the Democratic nomination.

“He’s not delusional,” a spokesman said.

Instead, he’s hoping to mobilize caucus-going prolife Catholics and evangelicals to send a message to the president.

Some say his real goal is not to win the caucuses, but air an ad showing graphic images of aborted fetuses during the Feb. 5 Super Bowl. Broadcasters are allowed under federal law to refuse advertisements unless they are being run by candidates seeking public office.

However, now that the caucuses have been moved from Feb. 6 to Jan. 3, that strategy seems, well, outdated.

The other comes from UI histroy prof Jeff cox. While I don't support it, is at least comprehensible:

Join the campaign to stand up for peace at the Iowa caucuses! The Iowa Healthcare not Warfare Caucus Campaign is organizing Iowans to attend the January 3 Democratic caucuses and support the election of uncommitted delegates. Although uncommitted to any presidential candidate, the delegates will be committed to (1) bringing all of our troops home from Afghanistan during the first year of President Obama's re-election, and (2) extending universal health care (Medicare
for All) to all Americans during President Obama's second term.

Note the dual references to "second Obama term" - uncommitted Democrats are going to get on board.

Not necessarily the CCI crowd that has co-opted Occupy Des Moines: GOP state rep. Chris Hagenow twittered yesterday that several of thems addresses the Westside Conservative Club at the Machine Shed Restaurant. David "I love getting arrested" Goodner is quoted as saying: "Occupy DSM is the third party candidate in the 2012 election." And a Judy Lonning says : "At this point I won't be voting for Obama" and "I hope that the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street can join together." Again, this isn'y an OCCUPY criticism, it's a critique of the confrontational approach in Des Moines.

But back to the uncommitted Dems: Remember, if you're a Republican For A Day like Ed FAllon suggests, your protest vote is buried in the GOP mix and you give up your seat at the Democratic platform table and at any special nominating conventions.

It's All Our Turf

If you're an old man like me you remember the "controversial" 1979 flick The Warriors, in which a very stylized and highly improbable (multiethnic?!?) New York gang fights its way across the city, battling cops and all the rest of the highly improbable gangs in the city. The soundtrack is highly improbable, too -- Joe Walsh from the Eagles? In this century, it would work better as a video game than as a movie.

The McGuffin that gets the plot rolling is the assassination of Cyrus, a street messiah who only appears on screen for just one scene. But those three minutes are an outstanding speech on community organizing.

Can you count, suckas? I say, the future is ours... if you can count!

Now, look what we have here before us. We got the Saracens sitting next to the Jones Street Boys. We've got the Moonrunners right by the Van Cortlandt Rangers. Nobody is wasting nobody. That... is a miracle. And miracles is the way things ought to be.

You're standing right now with nine delegates from 100 gangs. And there's over a hundred more. That's 20,000 hardcore members. Forty-thousand, counting affiliates, and twenty-thousand more, not organized, but ready to fight: 60,000 soldiers! Now, there ain't but 20,000 police in the whole town. Can you dig it? Can you dig it? Can you dig it?

Now, here's the sum total: One gang could run this city! One gang. Nothing would move without us allowing it to happen. We could tax the crime syndicates, the police, because WE got the streets, suckas! Can you dig it?

The problem in the past has been the man turning us against one another. We have been unable to see the truth, because we have fighting for ten square feet of ground, our turf, our little piece of turf. That's crap, brothers! The turf is ours by right, because it's our turn. All we have to do is keep up the general truce. We take over one borough at a time. Secure our territory... secure our turf... because it's all our turf!

It's all our turf. Something to consider when you think about what MY city would be without its 25,000 students, unrepresented in local government for three decades. And the Love The Hawkeyes Hate The Students cohort of townies and self-appointed do-gooders Mr. Subliminal says Dobyns are stirring up the faux fear, just like the 1970s generation of moral guardians (sic) did for this movie.

The reality is about as real and dangerous as the cartoon gangs in the movie. But the Warriors - spoiler 35 years late - do make it home. Can you vote, suckas?

Voting with Herky

Voting with Herky



Someone we all know and love stopped by early voting at Burge yesterday. Three more campus area sites this week: the UI main library today 2-8 PM, Hillcrest tomorrow 1-7 PM, and OLd Capitol Mall Thursday 10 to 4.

Unhacked

Unhacked

Four weeks to the day, almost to the hour, since the Deeth Blog was hacked, I now have Complete Control back.



Unfortunately, the stats for the missing month are gone forever and I'll need to reconstruct the layout. I've got some stuff backed up but doubt I'll be able to get it exact; end goal is something at least resembling the vintage version.

Sunday Clips

And While You're At It, Don't Talk Mexican In Front Of Me In The Wal-Mart Checkout Line Neither

Find the common thread in these three stories.

GOP on 2012 Vote: Block It, Don't Rock It:

In 2011, Republican Party of Florida “hard right-wing conservatives”in hammerlock control of the state added some wrinkles of their own to the mix, passing a new anti-voting rights law with an old purpose - suppressing the vote of those perceived as “oppositional”. The law shamelessly targets young/minority voters, Early Voting, and voter registration drives that the RPOF fears might help Democrats earn victories.

Dana Milbank, The birthers eat their own:

The people who brought you the Barack Obama birth-certificate hullabaloo now have a new target: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a man often speculated to be the next Republican vice presidential nominee. While they’re at it, they also have Bobby Jindal, the Republican governor of Louisiana and perhaps a future presidential candidate, in their sights.

The good news for the birthers is that this suggests they were going after Obama, whose father was a Kenyan national, not because of the president’s political party. The bad news is that this supports the suspicion that they were going after Obama because of his race.

Alexander Stille, The Paradox of the New Elite:

It's a puzzle: one dispossessed group after another — blacks, women, Hispanics and gays — has been gradually accepted in the United States, granted equal rights and brought into the mainstream.

At the same time, in economic terms, the United States has gone from being a comparatively egalitarian society to one of the most unequal democracies in the world.

Other nations seem to face the same challenge: either inclusive, or economically just. Europe has maintained much more economic equality but is struggling greatly with inclusiveness and discrimination, and is far less open to minorities than is the United States.

European countries have done a better job of protecting workers’ salaries and rights but have been reluctant to extend the benefits of their generous welfare state to new immigrants who look and act differently from them. Could America’s lost enthusiasm for income redistribution and progressive taxation be in part a reaction to sharing resources with traditionally excluded groups?

Here, let me spell it out for ya.

Iowa City Labor Endorsement

Iowa City Labor Endorsement Meeting

Kind of a non-event tonight at the Iowa City Federation of Labor's candidate endorsement meeting. The one candidate from Iowa City, Coralville or North Liberty who completed the required survey was Jim Throgmorton. The unopposed District C contender duly got the nod.

The only candidate on hand was at-large contender Raj Patel, who took a half dozen or so questions before leaving for this evening's candidate forum. Patel's reception was mostly positive. Most discussion during the later endorsement part of the meeting focused on the negatives of Michelle Payne, one delegate calling for a Matt Hayek endorsement, and a surprisingly strong assessment of Steve Soboroff's chances in District A.

Second Web Site in University Heights Race

Second Web Site in University Heights Race

Both de facto slates in the sure to be hot again University Heights city election are now up with web sites.

"U H Moving Forward" is the group that's been in support of the One University Place development at the site of St. Andrew Church.

The candidates are incumbents Mike Haverkamp and Pat Yeggy, candidate Amanda Whitmer, and Jim Lane, who served on the council briefly as an appointee until losing the January special election to Hopson. That January vote saw near-governor level turnout (56%) and broke the long-time Johnson County pattern: if a special election got called by petition, the side that petitioned always lost, until Hopson.

U H Moving Forward is also supporting MAyor Louise From, running unopposed.
Opponents of the project are We Are For University Heights at http://wer4uh.org/.

The WeR4UH candidates are:

Roseanne Hopson, inner of the record turnout January special election.

fellow incumbent Brennan McGrath.

Former school board member Jan Leff. She stepped down from the board in 2009 and just wrapped up a brief term as a placeholder appointee. Leff's husband Al, who preceded her on the school board, lost to From in the 2009 mayor's race.

First time candidate Rachel Stewart.

As a near west sider, near but not in UHeights, I've spotted yard signs and even bumper stickers printed with all four WeR4UH names. Usually when Koni is driving, because she takes Sunset to Melrose and I usually stay on Benton specifically to stay out of University Heights; my foot gets a little heavy on the gas sometimes.

The fifth incumbent, Stan Laverman, is not running. UHeights is also voting on renewing its library levy, which passed with 88% in 2005. Both sides of the development battle seem to agree on that at least.

Hancock Retires, Bowman Holds Over

Hancock Retires, Bowman Holds Over

Missed this one Monday so Bleeding Heartland does the work:

Democratic State Senator Tom Hancock announced on Monday that he will not seek re-election to the Iowa Senate in 2012. His decision means that fellow Democratic incumbent Tod Bowman can hold over in the new Senate district 29 until 2014, but it also means that Democrats must field a candidate in the new Senate district 49 next year.

So desmoinesdem basically writes the article I would have written so I'll add just a couple bits.

Senate 49 is the only odd-number seat that had no incumbent on Map Day, so the contest will be for a two-year term. Andrew Naeve, who lost to Bowman by just 71 votes last year, announced for the seat months ago before it was clear whether the seat would even be on the ballot.

He may not be alone on the GOP side. Shawn "Go Home" Hamerlinck lives just outside the lines in Senate District 46, and is paired up with fellow Republican Jim Hahn of Muscatine. Most folks expected a Hahn retirement, but he's up and running, so Hamerlinck might find the Clinton-based 49 more inviting. (Hamerlinck was elected in 2008, so his term expires either way and he can't force a holdover in 49. Only Bowman, elected in 2010, could have done that.)

And Clinton mayor Rodger Holm hinted last summer that he was interested in the seat, and then hemmed and hawed so long about it that he skipped the filing deadline for re-election as mayor. Now, bizarrely, he's just launched a write-in campaign for re-election.

No names yet on the Democratic side; I'm still holding out for former Clinton restaurant owner William Drayton.

Double Secret Probation

Patel Pushed on UI Dropout?

The attacks on city council candidate Raj Patel's credibility are sure to escalate after Patel announced that, while remaining enrolled at Kirkwood, he was withdrawing from his UIowa classes.

I'm already hearing it: Ooh! Ooh! Gotcha! Quitter! Quitter! He's so OVERWHELMED by school that there's no WAY he can run the city! Better leave it to the grownups!

So what gives? Why open yourself up to that? Patel only hints at a darker side to the story. Here's the key line:

"The evolution of the flexibility of my University of Iowa courses had changed as my campaign began to show momentum, whereas my Kirkwood classes remain flexible, and I will continue to attend classes there full-time while the campaign continues," the release said.

The evolution of the flexibility of my University of Iowa courses had changed.

I have no smoking guns here. But I do have Occam's Razor.

Picture this scenario. You're an undergrad with a big extracurricular or personal deadline mid-semester. In my case it was speech nationals the last week of April. For you it might be your brother's wedding in October. Or it might be... an election November 8. You know the date months in advance. You go to your prof or TA on Day One and make some arrangements. They know you're not just procrastinating, they work with you.

But then you stick your neck out, and all of a sudden you're on Double Secret Probation.

Given the reports about UI pressure to remove Patel as student liaison to the city council, it's not hard to picture. A couple undocumented calls from administrators to department heads, a couple quiet closed door sitdowns between department heads and professors, a couple marching orders to TAs, and all of a sudden a fellow has less "flexibility" than he used to on extended deadlines or make-up tests.

Did they do it? I don't know and I don't think we ever will.

But did they think it?

The University of Iowa administration does NOT want this man on the city council. They do not like him. They are afraid that because of Patel's advocacy for student rights in the 21 bar brawl last year, he wants to repeal the ordinance. That's a position that Patel explicitly rejects, and that no one other than John Deeth is willing to support in public.

Student government, no doubt feeling that same pressure again, is hemming and hawing about its prior endorsement of Patel:

UISG formally endorsed Patel Oct. 4. The motion was previously tabled, because some senators expressed concern Michelle Payne — a part-time student at the UI — should also be considered.

UISG Speaker of the Senate Nic Pottebaum said the legislation would stand unless a UISG senator proposed legislation to overturn it. (no doubt forthcoming...)

But UISG President Elliot Higgins said Patel's withdrawal as a UI student "may change the dynamics of the race."

"It's up to the voters of Iowa City whether Raj does represent the voice of students, but it's difficult to claim yourself as the voice of students if you're not a University of Iowa student," Higgins said.

Gimme a break. Who is truly representative of students, the largest unrepresented group of voters in the city:

A 46 year old Republican working for Mid-American Energy and backed by the elite of the Old Guard, Love the Hawkeyes Hate the Students, local conservatives (campaign finance report, .pdf) who happens to be enrolled in a couple classes, or

A 20 year old recognized leader in the student community taking a semester off and still enrolled at Kirkwood?

The answer, and the choice, is clear.

Third Candidate in Special Election

A Splinter On The Right in Battle Of Marion

Another break for Democrats in the Senate District 18 special election: Jon Tack of Hiawatha has filed as a candidate for the right wing Constitution Party.

Tack pulled just under 1 percent, both in Linn County and district-wide, in the 2010 2nd Congressional District election.

The Constitution Party stated life in the mid-90s as the US Taxpayers Party. The bullet-point platform includes:

Life: For all human beings, from conception to natural death

Family: One husband and one wife with their children as divinely instituted

Property: Each individual's right to own and steward personal property without government burden

States' Rights: Everything not specifically delegated by the Constitution to the federal government, nor prohibited by the Constitution to the states, is reserved to the states or to the people.

Clearly this is going to bite into Republican Cindy Golding's base more than that of Democrat Liz Mathis. But does a one percenter matter? Look at the 2009 Battle Of Fairfield, the state House special election where Democrat Curt Hanson won with under 50 percent, as two tea partyish candidates slivered just a hair off of the Republican vote.

Caucuses Set For January 3

January 3, 2012

Appropriately enough, the news came over my phone while I was at local Democratic HQ making plans for the caucuses:

Iowa GOP Chair Strawn: First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses Set for January 3

Des Moines – Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn tonight made the following statement after the Party’s State Central Committee approved a motion to hold Iowa’s First in the Nation Precinct Caucuses on Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 7:00 p.m. (Iowa time).

“On behalf of over 600,000 Iowa Republicans, I’m excited to announce the first step Iowans will have to replace Barack Obama and his failed presidency will be next January 3 at our First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses,” said Strawn. “A January 3 date provides certainty to the voters, to our presidential candidates, and to the thousands of statewide volunteers who make the Caucus process a reflection of the very best of our representative democracy.”

Iowa’s precinct caucuses, which occur at over 1,700 precinct locations across the Hawkeye state, are best-known for the presidential preference poll that occurs along with traditional party organizing activities such as the election of precinct committeemen and platform discussions.

Strawn noted that the decision to hold the precinct caucuses on January 3 mirrored the decision made by Iowa Republican and Democrat officials during the 2008 presidential cycle when Iowa held the First in the Nation Caucuses on January 3 and New Hampshire held the First in the Nation Primary on January 8, 2008.

Strawn noted this process is best served with Iowa and New Hampshire continuing in lead-off roles as the First in the Nation Caucus and First in the Nation Primary, respectively. He said, “At a time when more and more Americans feel disconnected from our national leaders, we need places like Iowa and New Hampshire that require those who seek to lead us, actually meet us, look us in the eye and listen to our hopes and concerns for our families and our Nation.”

Strawn also expressed solidarity with his counterparts in New Hampshire, “I will do everything in my power on the RNC to hold Florida accountable for creating this mess, but the culpability for creating a compressed January calendar does not end there. The actions of early state newcomer Nevada have also exacerbated this problem and unnecessarily crowded the January calendar. Time remains for Nevada to respect the process, honor tradition and rectify the problem in a way that will restore order to the nomination calendar.

Democratic chair Sue Dvorsky quickly followed with this tweet:

Iowa Democratic Party state central committee meeting by phone conf Thurs night. #iacaucus #FITN

Presumably discussing the same subject with the same outcome.

The date provides a nice symmetry for us Obama `08 Iowans, coming four years to the day after the historic caucus win.

Frontloading HQ:

At this point it is most likely that Nevada moves back this weekend and New Hampshire ultimately slides into the January 10 slot. As always, though, we shall see.

Nevada Republicans meet Saturday.

Also breaking:

Republicans Call For Romney To Join Nevada Boycott
State Leaders Say Front-Runner Taking NH For Granted

CONCORD, N.H. -- State Republican leaders are urging presidential candidate Mitt Romney to join a boycott of the Nevada caucus in an effort to get that state to change its schedule.

House Speaker Bill O'Brien said Romney is making a mistake by not joining the Nevada boycott.

"I think he may be taking New Hampshire voters for granted, and I don't think he ought to do that," O'Brien said.

"I talk to voters who are very, very concerned about New Hampshire maintaining its primary," he said. "They wouldn't take very kindly to a front-runner who says, 'No, I've got you locked up, so I'm going to try and get an advantage in another state.'"

Nice lead youse got here. Shame if somethin' happened to it.

City Election Developments

Me Me Me from Mitchell; Patel Picks Party

In an unusual move, Jarrett Mitchell, the distant fourth place finisher in last week's primary, is openly campaigning for what we in local parlance call "bullet votes" in the city election.

"VOTE ONLY FOR JARRETT MITCHELL ON NOVEMBER 8TH" reads the footer below a YouTube video claiming that the famous Black Angel tombstone is supportng Mitchell.

While the dead are only allowed to vote in Chicago, Iowa voters in an election where you can vote for more than one candidate are indeed free to vote for just one. But campaigns that encourage the tactic usually do it subtly and below the radar.

Voters who choose the tactic, in order to "be sure" their first choice wins, run the risk of seeing their second choice lose to their last choice. With Mitchell so far behind in the primary, and incumbent Matt Hayek so far ahead, the only real competition is between Mid-American Energy's Michelle Payne and student Raj Patel.

Patel, for his part, recently changed his voter registration from No Party to Democratic. Payne has been a registered Republican since registering in the county in 2005.

Caucuses Under Military Attack

Caucuses Under Military Attack



No, this isn't a metaphor; the actual military is attacking the caucuses.

The Reserve Officers Association, which has been pressing for state parties to make it possible for soldiers abroad to participate in the primary and caucus process, is complaining that the Iowa GOP -- which promised to "study" its concerns -- has instead ignored them.

"I suspect [the promise of a review] was just, 'let's say something to get them off our back,'" Wright said.

Hillary Clinton had the high ground on this one four years ago and Iowa still doesn't have a good answer. And there's not a good answer; if you're in Afghanistan you're not going to want to hear the real answer: "You can't have an absentee ballot because the New Hampshire Secretary of State doesn't like it."

Speaking of him, he's got military problems of his own: it's exposing his threat of a December primary as a bluff.

Gardner has already set one firm date, the filing deadline. Candidates who want to run for president must file the appropriate papers with his office by close of business on Friday, October 28 (That is, two weeks from today).

Gardner can't start printing any ballots until that process is complete. In fact, he probably can't start printing ballots until the next business day, Monday, October 31. And thanks to a law Congress passed in 2009, he must allow at least 45 days to pass between the time he sends out absentee ballots and Election Day.

That law, the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act, significantly expanded a 1986 law known as the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act. The MOVE Act requires state elections officials to send absentee ballots to qualified voters at least 45 days before an election; the goal is to ensure military personnel serving overseas and on Navy ships receive ballots with enough time to vote.

If Gardner schedules his primary on December 6th or 13th, before the 45-day clock ticks down, he's going to get sued by some voter claiming disenfranchisement under the MOVE and UOCAVA Acts. He wouldn't have a great chance at winning the case; many states that have held annual primaries in September, for example, are moving those contests back to August to account for the 45-day requirement.

An Occupy Observation

An Occupy Observation

I've finally gotten a little time to follow the Occupy stories and I'm struck by the contrast between Iowa City and Des Moines. The attitude, from what I hear, is much more relaxed in Iowa City and more confrontational in Des Moines.

The Iowa City police are being given some of the credit, though their cooperative and selective enforcement of the law begs the question of why they're so letter of the law when it comes to a voting age adult who wants a beer.

But more of the credit is due to the participants. They deliberately chose a town square type park, close to downtown but not in the way. The more natural spot would have been the Ped Mall, but they didn't want to get in the way of locally owned businesses.

But in Des Moines, it seems like organizers deliberately chose the highest profile spot possible, the Capitol grounds, where confrontation and arrest was most likely. Did law enforcement over-react? Sure. But I kinda think that was the goal all along.