Senate District 48
Registration: D 11066, R 12175, N 15545, total 38823, R +1109
No Incumbent
It's
up or out for two term House member Willems. No matter which race he
ran, the turf was radically changed. His old district was half Linn,
half Johnson. The new Senate seat takes in a mostly different chunk of
Linn, with only the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville
overlapping. It goes north and east to take in all of Delaware County
and most of Jones, where Willems grew up.
Republican Cindy
Golding, the loser to Liz Mathis in the Batle of Marion special Senate
race, had said she would run here if she won rather than in Senate 34.
But she passed on the race and endorsed farmer Dan Zumbach of rural
Ryan. Zumbach had announced even before the special Senate election was
called, and he easily beat Some Dude Brian Cook of Manchester in the GOP
primary, 79-21%.
Caucuses and primaries have boosted the numbers
to a paper Republican edge, but on Map Day, this was the very definition
of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge of ONE voter.
It's the #27 Democratic seat and/or the #24 most Republican. So yeah.
Critical for control.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Willems, Dan Zumbach for Senate
Willems is ready for battle with a near-leadership level
$92,616.41 in the bank, including more than $31,000 raised in the
post-primary weeks. Zumbach has $23,790.50 on hand.
House District 95
Registration: D 6342, R 6214, N 7581, total 20169, D +128
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
The
Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a
row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, Ro Foege, then
Willems.
But new House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House
29 where Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the
same district. It adds most of north and east rural Linn County. That
makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan gets
thrown in to balance the Census count.
Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and wrestling coach, will face Democratic teacher Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Stanerson For State House, Keast For HD95
Keast picked up the fundraising pace with over $9000 in June-July, and
has $12,213.25 in the bank. That gives her the lead over Stanerson with
$8,434.54.
House District 96
Registration: D 4724, R 5961, N 7964, total 18654, R +1237
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello, unopposed
In
the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware
County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware
stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to
House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and
Monticello, are in this district.
Hein, a former Monticello
school board member, found himself in a My District Just Not My House
pair-up with doomed Republican Brian Moore, and moved back into his
district. This seat is both better than the one he left and better than
the one he won two years ago, when Hein beat three term Democrat Ray
Zirkelbach by about 800 votes. That seat had a 1400 Democrat
registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hein for State House
Senate District 48, House District 95 & 96: District of the Day 1 - 6/29/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Dan Zumbach. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Zumbach. Show all posts
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 48, Iowa House District 95 & 96
Senate District 48
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Zumbach announces in Senate 48
Instant Lame Duck Gets Primary ?
Republican Cindy Golding has already pulled off the rare trick of being a lame duck before even getting elected. Now she's got a primary challenger, too.
At least one Republican lacks enough confidence in Golding's chances in the Battle of Marion special election that he's entering the race for the district Golding hopes to run in next fall. (Update: Bleeding Heartland now notes that there may be two, with Some Dude Brian Cook considering the race as well.)
Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan, in Delaware County, started looking at Senate 48 as far back as July and filed a campaign organization statement (pdf) in August, long before there was any hint that Democrat Swati Dandekar was resigning.
A refresher on geography: New Senate District 48 has very little overlap with Old Senate 18. The districts share just three townships - Fayette, rural Marion,and Monroe - and the city of Palo. The new turf then sprawls into northern and eastern Linn County, most of the population of Jones County, and all the way up into Delaware and Buchanan.
The Republican nominee in the Battle Of Marion, Cindy Golding, lives in Monroe Township - in old District 18 but NOT in new District 34, which includes Marion city and the vast majority of old Senate 18. Democrat Liz Mathis, of rural Robins, and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack, of Hiawatha, both live in bth old 18 and new 34.
Golding has already announced that, if elected on November 8, she will seek re-election not in new District 34, where most of her constituents live, but in District 48, where she owns a very, very, very nice house. Rep. Nate Willems (D-Lisbon) announced for Senate 48 shortly after The Map was approved.
So even though it was kind of public knowledge that Zumbach was running, why emphasize it now? Why shoot out a press-release now, just 12 days before the special election, that got picked up by both the Dubuque Telegraph Herald and the Register? It suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations.
Republican Cindy Golding has already pulled off the rare trick of being a lame duck before even getting elected. Now she's got a primary challenger, too.
At least one Republican lacks enough confidence in Golding's chances in the Battle of Marion special election that he's entering the race for the district Golding hopes to run in next fall. (Update: Bleeding Heartland now notes that there may be two, with Some Dude Brian Cook considering the race as well.)
Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan, in Delaware County, started looking at Senate 48 as far back as July and filed a campaign organization statement (pdf) in August, long before there was any hint that Democrat Swati Dandekar was resigning.
A refresher on geography: New Senate District 48 has very little overlap with Old Senate 18. The districts share just three townships - Fayette, rural Marion,and Monroe - and the city of Palo. The new turf then sprawls into northern and eastern Linn County, most of the population of Jones County, and all the way up into Delaware and Buchanan.
The Republican nominee in the Battle Of Marion, Cindy Golding, lives in Monroe Township - in old District 18 but NOT in new District 34, which includes Marion city and the vast majority of old Senate 18. Democrat Liz Mathis, of rural Robins, and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack, of Hiawatha, both live in bth old 18 and new 34.
Golding has already announced that, if elected on November 8, she will seek re-election not in new District 34, where most of her constituents live, but in District 48, where she owns a very, very, very nice house. Rep. Nate Willems (D-Lisbon) announced for Senate 48 shortly after The Map was approved.
So even though it was kind of public knowledge that Zumbach was running, why emphasize it now? Why shoot out a press-release now, just 12 days before the special election, that got picked up by both the Dubuque Telegraph Herald and the Register? It suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations.
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