Sunday, August 19, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 48, Iowa House District 95 & 96

Senate District 48
Registration: D 11066, R 12175, N 15545, total 38823, R +1109
No Incumbent

It's up or out for two term House member Willems. No matter which race he ran, the turf was radically changed. His old district was half Linn, half Johnson. The new Senate seat takes in a mostly different chunk of Linn, with only the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville overlapping. It goes north and east to take in all of Delaware County and most of Jones, where Willems grew up.

Republican Cindy Golding, the loser to Liz Mathis in the Batle of Marion special Senate race, had said she would run here if she won rather than in Senate 34. But she passed on the race and endorsed farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan. Zumbach had announced even before the special Senate election was called, and he easily beat Some Dude Brian Cook of Manchester in the GOP primary, 79-21%.

Caucuses and primaries have boosted the numbers to a paper Republican edge, but on Map Day, this was the very definition of a swing seat, with a  Democratic registration edge of ONE voter. It's the #27 Democratic seat and/or the #24 most Republican. So yeah. Critical for control.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Willems, Dan Zumbach for Senate Willems is ready for battle with a near-leadership level $92,616.41 in the bank, including more than $31,000 raised in the post-primary weeks. Zumbach has $23,790.50 on hand.

House District 95
Registration: D 6342, R 6214, N 7581, total 20169, D +128
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.

The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, Ro Foege, then Willems.

But new House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. It adds most of north and east rural Linn County. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan gets thrown in to balance the Census count.

Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and wrestling coach, will face Democratic teacher Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Stanerson For State House, Keast For HD95 Keast picked up the fundraising pace with over $9000 in June-July, and has $12,213.25 in the bank. That gives her the lead over Stanerson with $8,434.54.

House District 96
Registration: D 4724, R 5961, N 7964, total 18654, R +1237
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello, unopposed

In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district.

Hein, a former Monticello school board member, found himself in a My District Just Not My House pair-up with doomed Republican Brian Moore, and moved back into his district. This seat is both better than the one he left and better than the one he won two years ago, when Hein beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800 votes. That seat had a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hein for State House

Senate District 48, House District 95 & 96: District of the Day 1 - 6/29/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

No comments: