Senate District 48
Registration: D 11066, R 12175, N 15545, total 38823, R +1109
No Incumbent
It's
up or out for two term House member Willems. No matter which race he
ran, the turf was radically changed. His old district was half Linn,
half Johnson. The new Senate seat takes in a mostly different chunk of
Linn, with only the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville
overlapping. It goes north and east to take in all of Delaware County
and most of Jones, where Willems grew up.
Republican Cindy
Golding, the loser to Liz Mathis in the Batle of Marion special Senate
race, had said she would run here if she won rather than in Senate 34.
But she passed on the race and endorsed farmer Dan Zumbach of rural
Ryan. Zumbach had announced even before the special Senate election was
called, and he easily beat Some Dude Brian Cook of Manchester in the GOP
primary, 79-21%.
Caucuses and primaries have boosted the numbers
to a paper Republican edge, but on Map Day, this was the very definition
of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge of ONE voter.
It's the #27 Democratic seat and/or the #24 most Republican. So yeah.
Critical for control.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Willems, Dan Zumbach for Senate
Willems is ready for battle with a near-leadership level
$92,616.41 in the bank, including more than $31,000 raised in the
post-primary weeks. Zumbach has $23,790.50 on hand.
House District 95
Registration: D 6342, R 6214, N 7581, total 20169, D +128
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
The
Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a
row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, Ro Foege, then
Willems.
But new House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House
29 where Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the
same district. It adds most of north and east rural Linn County. That
makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan gets
thrown in to balance the Census count.
Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and wrestling coach, will face Democratic teacher Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Stanerson For State House, Keast For HD95
Keast picked up the fundraising pace with over $9000 in June-July, and
has $12,213.25 in the bank. That gives her the lead over Stanerson with
$8,434.54.
House District 96
Registration: D 4724, R 5961, N 7964, total 18654, R +1237
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello, unopposed
In
the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware
County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware
stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to
House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and
Monticello, are in this district.
Hein, a former Monticello
school board member, found himself in a My District Just Not My House
pair-up with doomed Republican Brian Moore, and moved back into his
district. This seat is both better than the one he left and better than
the one he won two years ago, when Hein beat three term Democrat Ray
Zirkelbach by about 800 votes. That seat had a 1400 Democrat
registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hein for State House
Senate District 48, House District 95 & 96: District of the Day 1 - 6/29/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Lee Hein. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lee Hein. Show all posts
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 48, Iowa House District 95 & 96
Senate District 48
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12220, R 13068, N 17711, total 43047, R +848
No Incumbent; Contested Republican primary.
House District 95
Registration: D 6981, R 6722, N 8525, total 22267, D +259
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate 48.
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt. Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% of a House district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat. On Map Day, the Democratic registration edge was ONE voter.
In the Senate race, Republicans are having a primary. Farmer Dan Zumbach of rural Ryan was first to announce, followed by Brian Cook of Manchester, who appears to be a Some Dude. It might have gotten more complicated. Cindy Golding, the Republican candidate in the Senate 18 special election, lives in this district, not Senate 34, the true successor of the old Marion-based district. Golding said she'd seek re-election here rather than move, but after losing the special she endorsed Zumbach.
Citizens for Willems had $56,460 on hand at the January 19 report; Dan Zumbach for Senate reported $18,009. Cook did not file a report.
In the House 95 race, Republican Quentin Stanerson of Center Point, an economics teacher and is a wrestling coach, will face Democrat Kristen Keast of Mt. Vernon.
Campaign finance reports: Stanerson For State House
House District 96
Registration: D 5239, R 6346, N 9186, total 20780, R +1107
Incumbent: Lee Hein, R-Monticello
Lee Hein may have needed to move back into his district, but he got the better end of the House 58 pairup than fellow Republican Brian Moore, who stayed behind in a very blue seat.
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.
Republicans and Farm Bureau targeted this seat in 2010. Hein, a Monticello school board member beat three term Democrat Ray Zirkelbach by about 800, in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge. With Delaware County added, the seat turns redder.
Campaign finance reports: Hein for State House
Original post 6/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Schueller To Try Comeback
Democrat Tom Schueller, one of 2010's unlikeliest victims, is on the comeback trail, seeking to regain the House District 58 legislative seat he lost last year to Brian Moore.
Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.
Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.
desmoinesdem notes:
Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.
Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.
desmoinesdem notes:
Iowa House Democrats did not appear to be represented at the (Suhr kickoff) event, nor did I receive a press release about Suhr from the House Democrats. In contrast, the House Democrats publicized campaign announcements by Joe Riding in district 30, Rich Olive in district 48, Bill Heckroth in district 63, Art Staed in district 66, Daniel Lundby in district 68, Rachel Bly in district 76, Joe Judge in district 80, Sara Sedlacek in district 88, and Frank Wood in district 92.And, as I write, the Schueller release from the House Dems hits my inbox. Suhr seems serious, but lists her profession as "doula," which loosely translates as midwife. My guess is that "doula" sounds kind of, how do I say this, Fairfield in Knoxville. Home birth vs. home school: House 28 sounds like quite the culture clash.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96
District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96
Senate District 48
Registration: D 11553, R 11552, N 15559, total 38706, D + 1
No Incumbent
House District 95
Registration: D 6453, R 5485, N 7317, total 19287, D + 968
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt.Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% or a district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge as of Map Day of ONE voter. And that was before the Loebsacks started packing. Luckily for Democrats, The Senate seat is even-numbered so it votes on the higher turnout presidential cycle. As for the House seat, Mt. Vernon has long had in influence in Linn County beyond its size.
House District 96
Registration: D 5100, R 6067, N 8242, total 19419, R+ 967
No incumbent Lee Hein, R-Monticello (?)
UPDATE Later that same evening: An alert reader notes this post:
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones. If it comes to an open seat primary, those kinds of friends and neighbors factors make a difference.
Freshman Republican Lee Hein lives just east of the lines in rural Monticello and is paired with fellow Republican Brian Moore. But Hein, who beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach in 2010, is a family farmerand not mobile. The more likely GOP carpetbagger is Steve Lukan of New Vienna...
...who isn't paired but got a strongly Democratic district. He's had most of Delaware County, including population center Manchester, for his whole decade in office.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 48
Registration: D 11553, R 11552, N 15559, total 38706, D + 1
No Incumbent
House District 95
Registration: D 6453, R 5485, N 7317, total 19287, D + 968
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate
New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt.Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% or a district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.
The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).
Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge as of Map Day of ONE voter. And that was before the Loebsacks started packing. Luckily for Democrats, The Senate seat is even-numbered so it votes on the higher turnout presidential cycle. As for the House seat, Mt. Vernon has long had in influence in Linn County beyond its size.
House District 96
Registration: D 5100, R 6067, N 8242, total 19419, R+ 967
UPDATE Later that same evening: An alert reader notes this post:
Rep. Lee Hein (R-Monticello) has announced he intends to run for re-election in House District 96.In fairness, this is kind of a My District Just Not My House thing. No word in the post about where Hein will be sleeping at night while he "work(s) on his family farm operation" which is just east of the district line. Hein was paired up with fluke winner Brian Moore (R-Zwingle) in Jackson County based House 58.
After redistricting, district 96 is comprised of all of Delaware County and portions of Jones County.
Hein is the third generation to work on his family farm operation, growing corn and soybeans along with raising hogs and cattle. He has been very active in the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Iowa Farm Business Association, and the Jones County Pork Producers and Cattlemen’s Association...
In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones. If it comes to an open seat primary, those kinds of friends and neighbors factors make a difference.
Freshman Republican Lee Hein lives just east of the lines in rural Monticello and is paired with fellow Republican Brian Moore. But Hein, who beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach in 2010, is a family farmer
...who isn't paired but got a strongly Democratic district. He's had most of Delaware County, including population center Manchester, for his whole decade in office.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Thursday, June 02, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58
District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58
Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.
Senate District 29
Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa andTom Hancock, D-Epworth Hancock will retire; Bowman holds over with no election..
The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.
Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.
Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent:Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna UPDATE January 5: Lukan not running.
Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.
Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."
That said, he might be able to get away with a move next door into open House 96 in Delaware and Jones. The Iowa Republican also considers Lukan as a possible retirement (a funny term for a guy in his early 30s) noting Lukan is getting married this summer in Des Moines. Administration job? In any case, as an insurance agent, he's more mobile than the two members paired in House 58...
House District 58
Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingleand Lee Hein, R-Monticello
UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.
UPDATE November 10: Schueller to seek comeback.
...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?
Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.
The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.
Senate District 29
Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa and
The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.
Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.
Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.
Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.
House District 57
Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent:
Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."
House District 58
Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle
UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.
UPDATE November 10: Schueller to seek comeback.
...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?
Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?
Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.
The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.
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