District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 34, Iowa House District 67 & 68

Senate District 34
Registration: D 11807, R 13003, N 14861, total 39715, R +1196
Incumbent: Liz Mathis, D-Cedar Rapids

There's a lot of competition, but without question THIS is the wackiest race in the state.

Less than a year ago, Republicans were battling for the right to run in the Marion senate race. It was Terry Branstad's Masterplan: kick conservaDem Swati Dandekar upstairs to the utility commission, win the Senate seat in a special, and boom, we have a tied Senate and welcome to Wisconsin.

But the Democrats won it before it even started. They'd been courting popular ex-TV anchor Liz Mathis for years to get her to run for office, and she finally said yes. And once she won the special, serious Republicans were scared off from the full term race.

One non-serious Republican stepped forward: Randi Shannon, who was a little extreme on rhetoric and had a residence issue (she reportedly lived in Johnson County, way outside the lines) but seemed like your garden variety Ron Paul tea partier.

Until the 4th of July. I gotta play this again:

Let me now announce to everyone in Iowa, I have become aware of the existence of the Original Republic for The United States of America.“We the People” re-inhabited our lawful de jure (de jur- “by right of lawful establishment”) government on March 30th, 2010. This is The Republic founded in 1787 and then abandoned during The Civil War in the 1860s. It was then replaced in 1871 by the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. (de facto-without law). This Unlawful Corporate Democracy, established by the forty-first congress, has been acting as though it is the “official government” which clearly it is not! Where the de jure Republic of The United States of America exists the de facto UNITED STATES CORPORATION, having no standing, must go away!

Now, knowing this, and with the best interests of The People of Iowa District 34 uppermost in my heart and out of respect for my own conscience, I am here to announce that I am ending my campaign as of this July 4th, 2012. I have accepted the position of U.S. Senator in The Republic of The United States of America, where I may better serve You and All of The People of Iowa. I want you to know I have taken an Oath to Uphold, Support and Defend The Constitution of The United States of America. This I will do to the best of my ability, So Help Me God.

Shannon's secession made national News Of The Weird headlines, and left the Republicans aghast, relieved, and with one small problem. Having bragged that they had a candidate in EVERY Senate seat, they had to replace Shannon on the ballot, and they were back to that problem of no serious Republican wanting to be the sacrificial lamb against Mathis.

The only non-serious one who stepped up was another Ron Paul type with another residency issue: Ryan Flood, last seen on the Paul campaign living in Texas. Oh, you two know each other? Yes, Flood was on Shannon's campaign finance reports as committee chair.

With all that, I'm surprised the Republicans even called the special convention. Mathis, meanwhile is out and about campaigning for other Senate Democrats.

What else. Oh, yeah, the line changes. Those were an issue in the special election. Mathis lives inside both old Senate 18, where the special was held and new Senate 34.
Republican nominee Cindy Golding, however, lives in new Senate 48 and said she would run for re-election there if she won the special. (She eventually decided not to run.)

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mathis for State Senate Mathis took in $21,680 during the filing period and has $34,511.22 on hand, more likely to help other Senate Democrats than to be needed against Flood (who had not yet formed his committee).

House District 67
Registration: D 5444, R 6937, N 7305, total 19704, R +1493
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010.

Renee Schulte's 2010 Democratic opponent, attorney Mark Seidl, was redrawn into the district and is challenging Paulsen. That was one of the few districts where Democrats looked like they were going to play offense. But there was too much defense in 2010 to play any offense, and Seidl fell about 1100 votes short.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Paulsen for State House Committee, Seidl for State Representative Seidl has $21,313.45 on hand. Not bad for one candidate seeking one seat. But Mr. Speaker has $319,847.68 in the bank to use where needed to try to keep 51 seats.

House District 68
Registration: D 6363, R 6066, N 7556, total 20011, D +297
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Just five years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... as a Democrat.

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. Wagner had lost to Swati Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin. He came back to win the open seat race in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010.

Marion used to be a District Draws Itself seat. But for the first time this census, Marion is larger than a House district. The most Republican part of town is now in Paulsen's district. Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south, picking up Bertram, and Ely. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Lundby for Iowa House, Nick Wagner for State House Wagner has a money edge, but not by a lot, with $23,734.56. Lundby has a healthy $17,512.18.

Senate District 34, House District 67 & 68: District of the Day 1 - 6/09/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 34, Iowa House District 67 & 68

Senate District 34
Registration: D 12855, R 14159, N 16582, total 43648, R +1304
Incumbent: Liz Mathis, D-Cedar Rapids

It was a genius move by Terry Branstad: since he was required to name a Democrat to the state utility board anyway, he went to the Senate and picked Marion senator Swati Dandekar. The special election win would have tied the Senate and changed the game.

But then Republicans split at convention and rejected Branstad's preferred choice, while Democrats scored a candidate recruiting coup with a 100 percent name ID former TV anchor. The Battle of Marion was probably over as soon as Liz Mathis entered the race, but Democrats worked like it wasn't and pulled off a relatively comfortable win.

The changes in the district lines were a bit of an issue in the special election. Mathis lives inside both old Senate 18 and new Senate 34. Republican Cindy Golding, however, lives in new Senate 48 and said she would run for re-election there if she won the special. (She eventually decided not to run.)

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House District size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

The special election was probably the Republican's best shot at beating Mathis. Their candidate this year, Randi Shannon of Cedar Rapids, is playing all the usual Constitutional Limited Government tea party cards and looks like a self-starter.

House District 67
Registration: D 6016, R 7537, N 8157, total 21733, R +1521
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010.

Renee Schulte's 2010 Democratic opponent, attorney Mark Seidl, was redrawn into the district and is challenging Paulsen. That was one of the few districts where Democrats looked like they were going to play offense. But there was too much defense in 2010 to play any offense, and Seidl fell about 1100 votes short.

The Paulsen for State House Committee has a whopping $215,580 in the bank on the January 19 report, but most of that is no doubt meant for his team's targeted races. Seidl for State Representative had $20,359, making him one of the best financed challenger candidates.

House District 68
Registration: D 6839, R 6622, N 8425, total 21915, D +217
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Just five years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... as a Democrat.

“The Republican Party and the people I was supporting no longer placed the best interests of Iowa and its voters before their own party agenda.”" said Daniel Lundby in his press release.

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. (She had planned to run for the Board of Supervisors, but cancer that had been in remission returned and she passed away in early 2009.) Wagner had lost to Swati Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win the open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.

The district no longer includes all of Marion, which for the first time this census is larger than a House district. The most Republican part of town is now in speaker Kraig Paulsen's district. Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Nick Wagner for State House had a lead on the January 19 finance report, with $16,060 cash on hand to Lundby for Iowa House's $7592.

Original post 6/09/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Same Candidate, Different Opponent

Same Candidate, Different Opponent

Here's one way redistricting reshuffles the deck: A 2010 Democratic challenger is running again, but this time against a different Republican incumbent.

Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into new House District 67 and will challenge House Speaker Kraig Paulsen.

“I am disappointed in the leadership Kraig Paulsen provided during the last session of the Legislature,” said Seidl. “After promising to focus on creating jobs and improving the Iowa economy, Paulsen led House Republicans in pursuit of extreme policies that neither represent the view of most Iowans nor help to move our state forward.”

“I am running because we have to put an end to the ideology and bickering that have made it impossible for government to get its job done. While our schools, which used to be the best in the nation, are suffering funding cuts and our universities are increasingly out of financial reach for the children of working Iowans, our State is sitting on a billion dollars in surplus funds. This money should be invested in our children, who are our future. The men most responsible for the government's failure to make that investment are Terry Branstad and Kraig Paulsen. To make this a government of, by, and for the people again, we need to start by replacing the Speaker of the House, who is responsible for this failure to invest in our children, and that's Kraig Paulsen."

Seidl was a highly touted House challenger in 2010. It was one of the few districts where Democrats looked like they were going to play offense, after Schulte knocked off first-term Dem Art Staed by just 13 votes in 2008. (Last week Staed announced he will challenge Schulte again next year.) But there was too much defense to play any offense, and Seidl fell about 1100 votes short.

The new district has some convoluted lines, but all of them follow city limits; the northern part of the Cedar Rapids metro area was the scene of an annexation war this past decade. The district includes all or part of four cities: Hiawatha, Robins, north Cedar Rapids, and northwest Marion.

Paulsen's old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and he had relatively close races his first three terms. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration. He avoided opposition in 2010.

Seidl's announcement makes him the third Linn County Democratic challenger already announced at this early date. In addition to Staed, Daniel Lundby has announced against GOP incumbent Nick Wagner in Marion-based House 68.

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

Senate District 34

Registration: D 12637, R 13206, N 15441, total 41336, R+ 569
Incumbent: Swati Dandekar, D-Marion Liz Mathis, D-Robins

UPDATE Entire fall of 2011: I'm sure you know the story.

Dandekar has won national attention as the first woman of South Asian descent in American elected office (take that, Nikki Haley). Her heritage was the subject of whisper campaigns in her first House race in 2002, but once emailed smoking guns surfaced, Republicans had little choice but to scuttle their own candidate. Dandekar, who seemed to be ahead before the nastiness went above ground, became the first Democrat to win the Marion House seat in decades. She's had close races but held on, moving up to the Senate when Republican Mary Lundby stepped down in poor health in 2008. (Lundby had intended to run for the Board of Supervisors in a new district system that kicked in that year, but left that race and passed away just days after her Senate term officially expired.)

Dandekar is up in 2012. Any Democrat in a swingy seat with two GOP House members has to worry a bit, but Dandekar has cut a moderate profile and drawn some bipartisan support, much as Lundby did.

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House district size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

House District 67

Registration: D 5803, R 6916, N 7570, total 20312, R+ 1113
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

And the speaker gets to represent all four of those cities. Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. (Most of that goes into open House 95, where Democratic incumbent  Nate Willems is running for Senate instead.) Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration, which combined with his stature as speaker should leave him time to help other folks.

UPDATE July 22: Democrat Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into this district and will challenge Paulsen.

House District 68

Registration: D 6834, R 6290, N 7871, total 21024, D +544
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Wagner lost to Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win a top tier open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. But to use a sports analogy it was kind of a sacrifice fly; the Dems gave up Dandekar's House seat to take the Senate seat. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map