District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 4, Iowa House District 7 & 8

Senate District 4
Registration: D 10826, R 14999, N 15189, total 41024, R +4173
No Incumbent

Last summer I was laughing at Tea Partier Dennis Guth, who seemingly hadn't gotten the message that this open, five county (Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock, Emmett and Wright) seat was supposed to be Stu Iverson's route back to the Senate. After reading about one of his early appearances, I thought Guth was the comic relief contender:

Guth joined the campaign to unseat three Supreme Court justices - a campaign that was successful in last November's justice retention vote.

"I was very pleased that God allowed us to do that," Guth said.

Addressing a question about preschools, Guth said mothers should be staying home to care for their children, not sending them to preschool.

Guth stressed his strong support of the Second Amendment, saying he has a permit to carry a concealed weapon.

Guth criticized government mandates such as mental health. "I don't think we need to be mandating things that we don't support," he said.

The joke's on me. Not only did Iverson not even run, but the candidate he and Terry Branstad backed, former Senator Jim Black, lost to Guth in the primary, 52-47%. So the guy who's both "against mental health" AND is carrying a concealed weapon is the Republican nominee in a pretty good Republican district.

Democrats are well positioned to take advantage of the Republican's questionable choice. Bob Jennings of Algona is information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. Despite the unfavorable turf - this is the third toughest seat Democrats are contesting this year -  this is one to watch.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Bob Jennings Committee To Elect For State Senate, Guth for Senate Jennings had $4,213.49 on hand. Guth, coming out of a contested primary, had $3,796.08. Looks like this race would be a cheap investment.

House District 7
Registration: D 5948, R 6710, N 8184, total 20849, R +762
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. He beat Mark Frakes in the primary, 56-44%.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Gassman for House, Wittneben for State Representative Wittneben has $3,845.66 on hand, not much for an incumbent, yet he has the edge. Gassman had just $1,032.59 on hand, only raised $630 post-primary, and has $3750 in outstanding loans.

House District 8
Registration: D 4879, R 8290, N 7015, total 20187, R +3411
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner, unopposed

Like the Senate race, this one turned out weird. District 8 was the only three-incumbent seat on Map Day, and septuagenarian Rayhons looked like the odd man out between Iverson and majority leader Linda Upmeyer.

But Iverson stood down after a one-term return; in retrospect, it looks like his job was simply to knock off Democrat McKinley Bailey in 2010.  Upmeyer moved, and so Rayhons was left standing.

Rayhons nevertheless got a primary, from minister Bob Dishman, but won by a fairly solid 58-42% margin. And that was the ball game, with no Democrat running.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Rayhons for Representative

Senate District 4, House District 7 & 8: District of the Day 1 - 4/28/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 4, Iowa House District 7 & 8

Senate District 4
Registration: D 12120, R 15462, N 17680, total 45274, R +3342
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary

Well, this one hasn't turned out at all like I thought. We've got a former Senator making a comeback, sure--but not the one we expected.

Everyone assumed from Map Day forward that this was Stew Iverson's path back to the Senate. Instead, we have an unlikely comeback from Jim Black, who served just one session, 1997, before abruptly resigning "citing family troubles." Recently Black said that the resignation was part of a court agreement in his divorce, in order to keep custody of his children. Iverson is Black's campaign chair.

The turf is actually quite similar to Black's old seat. It covers five whole counties, and four are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. Emmett replaces Humboldt. No one these counties dominates the district.

Black faces a primary against Tea partier Dennis Guth, who has a distinctive rhetorical flair but, surprisingly, has outraised Black. Dennis Guth for Senate reported $7435 cash on hand on January 19, while Jim Black for Iowa Senate Committee had just $3908, and more than half of that is from the candidate. (Thurman Gaskill, who took over for Black in the 1997 Senate special and served through 2008, chipped in $100 for Black.)

By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP. Yet Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings of Algona, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. But Jennings' committee had just $275 in the bank on the January 19 report date.

House District 7
Registration: D 6632, R 6799, N 9443, total 22882, R +167
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville; contested Republican primary

Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

At least two Republicans see an opportunity here. Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. Mark Frakes of Forest City is a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot. The Committee to Elect Mark Frakes has $2008 in the bank; Gassman got a later start and had just opened an account with $25 at the January 19 report deadline. Wittneben for State Representative had $2526 on hand, but incumbent protection is always the highest priority for a party, so he'll get help from Des Moines when the time comes.

House District 8
Registration: D 5488, R 8663, N 8237, total 22392, R +3175
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner (Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner moving, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, retiring) - primary challenge

Who would have thought that, when he got drawn together with the House majority leader and the former Senate GOP leader in the state's only redistricting triple-up, that 75 year old Henry Rayhons would be the one left standing in this district? Or that the seat might end up in the hands of a primary challenger?

This seat is centered on Hancock County, mutual home base for both Rayhons and Upmeyer. Rayhons' old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is where Upmeyer is moving to run in open House 54. Rayhons' new seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

But Rayhons isn't home free. No Democrats yet, but he's got a primary challenger, Rev. Bob Dishman.

"The goal should be a smaller, more efficient government and that's what I intend to accomplish," said Dishman, pastor of Park Church of Christ in Goldfield. He said he will focus on conservative values that include supporting pro-life issues and traditional marriage in Iowa.

And Rayhons, while a pretty conservative guy, was on the "wrong" side of that 2011 vote I use for my scorecard, Pearson's Total Abortion Ban.

Fundraising has started slow but Dishman for State House has more cash on hand, $744, than Rayhons for Representative's $348; Rayhons has raised more and spent more.

Original post 4/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Democrat Wittneben Draws Two GOP Rivals

A Republican primary looks likely in House District 7 in notth central Iowa. The area was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Incumbent Democrat Marcy Frevert stepped down and Democrat John Wittneben held the seat by just 32 votes.

Wittneben looks set for another tough one this year. The new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge of just 121 on Map Day (probably a deficit post-caucus). Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto County but keeps his own Emmet County base, all of Winnebago County, and rural north Kossuth. The seat also adds the city of Algona.

At least two Republicans see an opportunity and spoke up on caucus night. Ted Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. Mark Frakes of Forest City is a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot; if he wins maybe he'll start a Chopper Coalition with Guy Vander Linden.

As the small town papers trickle in with their local caucus stories, I'm getting more and more of this kind of stuff in my in box, from Google News alerts and from readers. Look for the usual full coverage of the filing deadlines this March and some updates in the District of the Day department once the caucus registrations and the detail work of reprecincting are done and we can get updated registration numbers.

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8



Senate District 4

Registration: D 11,890, R 14,602, N 15,880, total 42,381, R+ 2712
No Incumbent

Five whole counties- Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright-with no senators. This turf was split between Jack Kibbie, Merlin Bartz, and Rob Bacon in the old map. No one county dominates geographically as all are of similar size, between 10,000 and 16,000 population in a 61,000 body district. That's a lot of parades.

Last year Bacon knocked off Democrat Rich Olive, who won in 2006 when Stew Iverson quit his re-elect race after being deposed as Senate Republican leader. Iverson, of course, made a comeback last year when he defeated Six Pack Democrat McKinley Bailey in a Wright-Hamilton district.

Iverson is part of the triple-up in House 8 (see below) which is partially resolved by his likely run in this seat. There's not a lot of overlap between new senate 4 and the old Senate 5 that he held. Wright is the south end of the new seat that borders Minnesota. The old one went south from Wright instead, through Hamilton, wrapped around Ames to take in most of geographic Story, and ended way down at the Polk County line. The old seat was a few hundred voters more Republican, but Olive still managed to squeak through by 61 votes in a Democratic landslide year.

House District 7

Registration: D 6526, R 6405, N 8514, total 21,450, D+ 121
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Day Four and finally our first House Democrat. Wittneben was one of the D's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

House District 8

Registration: D 5364, R 8197, N 7366, total 20931, R+ 2833

Incumbents: Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, and Henry Rayhons, R-Garner

UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move to House 54.

UPDATE August 10: Rayhons staying and running.

For a few hours on March 31, it looked like this was the seat that could have scuttled the whole plan. With Upmeyer and Rayhons both carrying Garner addresses, it would have been hard for the map geeks to keep them apart; Iverson was just one more wrench in the works.

Early reports were that Upmeyer would be the one who stayed, but now it seems she's looking at open House 54 to the north. Rayhons is 75 and was pegged as a retirement, but if Upmeyer does move he could stick around. Iowa Politics offered a good summary on April 20:

Upmeyer has said she might move from her longtime farm in Garner to a condominium in the Clear Lake area. But if she doesn’t, Rayhons said he’ll retire instead of running against his fellow Republican.

“It’s going to all depend on what Representative Upmeyer does,” Rayhons told IowaPolitics.com. “I would guess that I would probably run for that House seat if Representative Upmeyer decides to move. However, I will not interject if Representative Upmeyer stays where she is and wants the seat. I would quit the Legislature, probably.”

As for Iverson, speculation is that he might run for a state Senate seat that’s vacant due to redistricting. Iverson is a former Senate majority leader. However, he said Tuesday that he hadn’t made up his mind on his political future.

“I have absolutely made no decisions yet,” Iverson said. “The House district looks pretty good. The Senate district looks pretty good. There happens to be three Republicans in the House district. Representative Upmeyer, Representative Rayhons and I have not sat down. We have not talked about anything. I have to tell you, I’ve made no decisions yet whatsoever, and I probably won’t make a decision until next fall.”

However, Iverson is sure about one thing.

“I am not moving,” he said.

If Upmeyer stays she gets a slightly more Republican district. She'd lose Winnebago and Worth to the north and east. This seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

Rayhon's old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is specifically where Upmeyer is taking about moving. Open House 54 could also have been the escape route for Annette Sweeney, who drew the short straw in the pair with Pat Grassley. But it's starting to look like she drew the short straw here, too.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2



Senate District 1

Registration: D 9761, R 18,483, N 14,968, total 43,229, R + 8722
Incumbents: Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg and David Johnson, R-Ocheyedan

UPDATE April 25: First day, first district, first update. Alert reader Beth Schopis notes that Kibbie told a local forum on April 13: "I'm not going to run in 2012. Remember, you heard it here first." Thanks for the many years of service, Jack. This means no race in Senate 1 next year as Johnson will hold over.

We start with a big one: two senators of opposite parties paired. District 1 is five whole counties in the state's northwest corner: Dickinson and Clay, Lyon, Palo Alto and Osceola, in order of population. (Census trivia: Dickinson and Clay recorded EXACTLY the same population: 16,667.)

Senate President Kibbie keeps only Palo Alto from his 2000s district; he had Dickinson and Clay in the 90s. He loses Emmet and Kossuth, which go east into open District 4, and Pocahontas, Humboldt, and a sliver of Webster, which go south to Ft. Dodge's Daryl Beall.

Johnson keeps Dickinson, his home county Osceola and most of Clay (including the city of Spencer). He loses O'Brien and a sliver of Sioux to Randy Feenstra, and instead gets blood-red Lyon County, which he had in his 1990s House district.

Kibbie, at 81 the oldest legislator, has served consecutively in the Senate since 1988, and also served eight years in the House and Senate in the 1960s. He was re-elected with 71% in 2008 in old district 4 against a "Grassroots For Life Party" candidate ("Tea Party" didn't enter the nomenclature till 2009). Johnson, 60, moved over from the House in 2002 and was comfortable in old Senate District 3; 59% in 2006 and unopposed in 2010.

KICD radio offered a story with a lot of regional roundup the day the Legislature approved the map:

Kibbie (noted) "it's impossible I think for any Democrat to win that district. It is a big plus for the Republicans." He noted his pleasure with the current map and the previous one but says "I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the way the map is. It is always hard to elect a Democrat in Northwest Iowa but this makes it worse."

Senator Johnson tells KICD News "personally I don't have a problem with the plan to reconfigure the district I currently represent." He did express disappointment with O'Brien County not being included in the proposal.

The even-odd factor comes into play here. (Even-number Senate districts normally go on the ballot in presidential years; odd numbers are on the governor cycle.) Kibbie is at the end of a four year term. If he stays and runs, it would force Johnson to run two years early for a two year term. But with Kibbie himself saying it's "impossible" to win this district, that's a big ask to make of a guy who'll be 84 by Election Day 2012. Kibbie says he'll announce his plans post-session, word is he's expected to retire. That would let Johnson hold over till 2014.

House District 1

Registration: D 3936, R 11,506, N 6802, total 22,251, R+ 7570
Incumbent: Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji

Smith, 43, won an easy primary and had no opposition in the 2010 general to take over old district 6 from fellow Republican Mike May. KICD:

Smith would be included in House District 1 which would be comprised of the upper two thirds of Dickinson County, as well as Osceola County which is currently represented by Republican Royd Chambers and Lyon County which is represented by Republican Dwayne Alons.

Smith's old district 6 was basically Spirit Lake, Okoboji and Spencer. In the new map he keeps almost all of the Iowa Great Lakes population core of Dickinson and heads west to Osceola and Lyon. His old very Republican district becomes a very, VERY Republican district.

House District 2

Registration: D 5825, R 6977, N 8166, total 20,978, R+ 1152
No incumbent

This empty seat is all of Clay and Palo Alto, with the southern third of Dickinson thrown in. Much of this was Smith's. Palo Alto was in Democrat John Wittneben's old district 7.

This could be an escape route for Royd Chambers, who is paired with fellow Republican Dan Huseman in new District 3. But his no vote on the map makes me think he quits or dukes it out in a primary instead. It's an opportunity for a Spencer or Emmetsburg Republican such as 2010 candidate Lannie Miller, who lost to Wittneben on turf that leaned Democratic. And Democrats like Kibbie have won in this general area in living memory. (Indeed, if Kibbie were younger this might be a place for one of those Senate to House moves we sometimes see in map years.) Longtime rep Marcy Frevert voluntarily retired last year and saw Wittneben hang on to the seat.

Links: New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map