Senate District 36
Registration: D 11129, R 12062, N 13993, total 37204, R +933
Incumbent: Steve Sodders, D-State Center
No
Democrat gained more from the Republican primary results than Steve
Sodders. The Branstad wing of the party recruited Sodders' predecessor,
former three-term senator and one time congressional candidate Larry
McKibben. But primary voters preferred tea partyish two-time House loser
Jane Jech over McKibben, 59-41%. The race dropped significantly in
priority soon after.
Sodders, a deputy sheriff, won by more
than 3,000 votes when McKibben retired in Democratic wave year 2008. The
new lines will help him in 2012, as he sheds 1500 Republicans and this
becomes a true swing seat.
Marshall County makes up
two-thirds of this seat. The old district had all of Hardin County and
the tiny piece of Ackley in Franklin County. The district moves east to
take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Jane Jech for Iowa Senate, Sodders for State Senate
Sodders has been prepping for a tough race. He raised over $32,000 in
June and July and has $68,734.76 on hand. Jech took in $16,429.00
post-primary and has $11,065.75.
House District 71
Registration: D 5557, R 5545, N 6356, total 17467, D +12
Incumbent: Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown
The
District Draws Itself: With a census population of 27,552, Marshalltown
is 90.4% of ideal district size. This remains a swing seat, as it's
been for years. As of my August 9 benchmark date, the voter registration margin of 12
voters for the Democrats makes this the most evenly split seat in the
state. There was a 58 vote race here in 1992, and Smith won the
seat in 2000 by knocking off three term Republican Beverly
Nelson-Forbes by just 275. He settled in to the point where he was
unopposed in 2004 and 2006, and beat Jech by more than 1700 in 2008. But
in a rematch with Jech against the 2010 GOP wave, Smith survived by
just a 303 vote margin.
With Jech in the Senate race, Republicans have turned to farmer and ex-school board member Allen Burt for the House race.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mark Smith for Iowa House, Allen Burt for House Smith raised more than 10 grand in June/July and has $29,485.98. Burt has $18,255.48 on hand.
House District 72
Registration: D 5572, R 6517, N 7637, total 19737, R +945
Open seat; Lance Horbach, R-Tama, not seeking re-election
Horbach
announced his retirement before The Map was even released. Republican
Dean Fisher of Garwin will try to hold a seat that's significantly less
Republican. The old Tama-Grundy seat had a GOP registration edge of
almost 2500, and Horbach, after winning his first term by 9 votes, had
gradually settled into the comfort of uncontested races. This decade
Tama County gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and
west of Marshalltown.
This shifts the district into the swing
seat zone. In a Democratic primary upset, school custodian and county
conservation board member Nathan Wrage defeated highly touted tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia. 54-46%.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Dean Fisher for House 2012, Wrage for State Representative Wrage had $2,341.06 on hand; Blackcloud-Garcia had pulled in some big out of state donations. Fisher has $3,822.98.
Senate District 36, House District 71 & 72: District of the Day 1 - 6/13/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Mark Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Smith. Show all posts
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Two GOP House Announcements
Just two weeks now till filing starts for legislative candidates. Ye Olde Deeth Blog will do a District Of The Day update of some sort soon after the March 16 filing deadline, but for now, two more announcements on the House GOP side:
Johnson County folks will recognize the name Maison Bleam, the former UI student government leader who made a brief stab at the Johnson County Board of Supervisors during the 2009 appointment process. He's now making the Back Home run in House District 10. That seat already has TWO incumbents: five-termer Dave Tjepkes is stepping down and freshman Tom Shaw is running.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. And it's places like this (Pocahontas, Humboldt, and Calhoun counties, with part of Kossuth) that will elect the recent grad, as opposed to youthful "progressive" Iowa City. (Yeah, still mad Raj Patel lost.)
Still, this race seems like a heavy lift given Shaw's proven strength as a candidate in two 2010 races, a tough primary and a general election gain of a "Democratic" open seat (OK, Delores Mertz barely counts).
In Marshalltown, GOP farmer and ex-school board member Allen Burt is in the House 71 race against the man who loads my mailbox daily with false Google News alerts on his name, Democrat Mark Smith.
(And don't even get me started on the two David Johnsons... speaking of which, Democratic activists aren't exactly thrilled about the West Branch Johnson's chances against the GOP's Jeff Kaufmann in now-D leaning House 73, is anyone else going to get in?)
The city of Marshalltown is 90% of this seat. Smith has beaten the GOP's Jane Jech twice in a row; by a lot in 2008 and by a little in 2010. Jech has migrated to the Senate race instead, where she's an underdog to former senator Larry McKibben for the right to take on Democrat Steve Sodders this fall.
"(Bleam) said that compared to Shaw he is a ''different style of principled constitutional conservative".'' His different style, he said, is a result of his state, national and international experience...That's a polite way of saying that Shaw has aligned himself with the tea partiest of the tea partiest during his first term.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. And it's places like this (Pocahontas, Humboldt, and Calhoun counties, with part of Kossuth) that will elect the recent grad, as opposed to youthful "progressive" Iowa City. (Yeah, still mad Raj Patel lost.)
Still, this race seems like a heavy lift given Shaw's proven strength as a candidate in two 2010 races, a tough primary and a general election gain of a "Democratic" open seat (OK, Delores Mertz barely counts).
(And don't even get me started on the two David Johnsons... speaking of which, Democratic activists aren't exactly thrilled about the West Branch Johnson's chances against the GOP's Jeff Kaufmann in now-D leaning House 73, is anyone else going to get in?)
The city of Marshalltown is 90% of this seat. Smith has beaten the GOP's Jane Jech twice in a row; by a lot in 2008 and by a little in 2010. Jech has migrated to the Senate race instead, where she's an underdog to former senator Larry McKibben for the right to take on Democrat Steve Sodders this fall.
Monday, June 13, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72
District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72
Senate District 36
Registration: D 12112, R 12376, N 14570, total 39075, R+ 264
Incumbent: Steve Sodders, D-State Center
Sodders keeps all of his home base, Marshall County, which makes up two-thirds of this seat. The old district had all of Hardin County and the tiny piece of Ackley in Franklin County. The district moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.
Sodders took a Republican-leaning seat from the GOP in 2008 when Larry McKibben retired, winning by more than 3,000 votes. 2008 was a Democratic wave, of course, and Sodders was fortunate not to be on the ballot in 2010. The new lines will help him in 2012, as he sheds 1500 Republicans and this becomes a true swing seat.
House District 71
Registration: D 5988, R 5687, N 6553, total 18234, D+ 301
Incumbent: Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown
The District Draws Itself: With a census population of 27,552, Marshalltown is 90.4% of ideal district size. Even the rural part stays almost the same, adding one township and keeping the communities of Albion and Liscomb.
Democrat Mark Smith is the beneficiary of this geopolitical and numeric serendipity, and of course the partisan balance barely changes. This remains a swing seat, as it's been for years (one upside of The District Draws Itself is comparisons across decades are possible). There was a 58 vote race here in 1992, and Smith won the seat in 2000 by knocking off three term Republican Beverly Nelson-Forbes by just 275. He settled in to the point where he was unopposed in 2004 and 2006, and beat Republican Jane Jech by more than 1700 in 2008. But in a rematch with Jech against the 2010 GOP wave, Smith survived by just a 303 vote margin.
House District 72
Registration: D 6124, R 6689, N 8017, total 20841, R+ 565
Open seat; incumbent: Lance Horbach, R-Tama, not seeking re-election
Tama County has been the core of a district for a few maps, but always seems to get partnered toward a different compass point. Horbach won his first term by nine (!) votes over Democrat Bill Brand in 1998. (If I remember right, election night had Horbach ahead by two.) That district ran east into Benton County. Four years later, Horbach's turf shifted northwest as the district gained all of Grundy (and lost the southeast corner of Tama County around Chelsea). This decade Tama County is whole again, but gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and west of Marshalltown. (This probably means a Tama-Poweshiek district in 2021 since every other direction has been done.) It also adds what looks like the leftovers of Black Hawk County: two rural townships and La Porte City. "The long skinny shape of Big Creek Township gives this district a little panhandle, which I like," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering.
What this district won't have is Horbach, who announced before The Map was even released that he's not running in 2012. Whoever does run will get a district that's significantly less Republican. The old Tama-Grundy seat had a GOP registration edge of almost 2500, and Horbach had gradually settled into the comfort of uncontested races. This new district has a Republican registration margin of just 565.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 36Registration: D 12112, R 12376, N 14570, total 39075, R+ 264
Incumbent: Steve Sodders, D-State Center
Sodders keeps all of his home base, Marshall County, which makes up two-thirds of this seat. The old district had all of Hardin County and the tiny piece of Ackley in Franklin County. The district moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.
Sodders took a Republican-leaning seat from the GOP in 2008 when Larry McKibben retired, winning by more than 3,000 votes. 2008 was a Democratic wave, of course, and Sodders was fortunate not to be on the ballot in 2010. The new lines will help him in 2012, as he sheds 1500 Republicans and this becomes a true swing seat.
House District 71
Registration: D 5988, R 5687, N 6553, total 18234, D+ 301
Incumbent: Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown
The District Draws Itself: With a census population of 27,552, Marshalltown is 90.4% of ideal district size. Even the rural part stays almost the same, adding one township and keeping the communities of Albion and Liscomb.
Democrat Mark Smith is the beneficiary of this geopolitical and numeric serendipity, and of course the partisan balance barely changes. This remains a swing seat, as it's been for years (one upside of The District Draws Itself is comparisons across decades are possible). There was a 58 vote race here in 1992, and Smith won the seat in 2000 by knocking off three term Republican Beverly Nelson-Forbes by just 275. He settled in to the point where he was unopposed in 2004 and 2006, and beat Republican Jane Jech by more than 1700 in 2008. But in a rematch with Jech against the 2010 GOP wave, Smith survived by just a 303 vote margin.
House District 72
Registration: D 6124, R 6689, N 8017, total 20841, R+ 565
Open seat; incumbent: Lance Horbach, R-Tama, not seeking re-election
Tama County has been the core of a district for a few maps, but always seems to get partnered toward a different compass point. Horbach won his first term by nine (!) votes over Democrat Bill Brand in 1998. (If I remember right, election night had Horbach ahead by two.) That district ran east into Benton County. Four years later, Horbach's turf shifted northwest as the district gained all of Grundy (and lost the southeast corner of Tama County around Chelsea). This decade Tama County is whole again, but gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and west of Marshalltown. (This probably means a Tama-Poweshiek district in 2021 since every other direction has been done.) It also adds what looks like the leftovers of Black Hawk County: two rural townships and La Porte City. "The long skinny shape of Big Creek Township gives this district a little panhandle, which I like," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering.What this district won't have is Horbach, who announced before The Map was even released that he's not running in 2012. Whoever does run will get a district that's significantly less Republican. The old Tama-Grundy seat had a GOP registration edge of almost 2500, and Horbach had gradually settled into the comfort of uncontested races. This new district has a Republican registration margin of just 565.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
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