Showing posts with label Taylor Caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Taylor Caucus. Show all posts

Sunday, August 19, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 42, Iowa House District 83 & 84

Senate District 42
Registration: D 13344, R 10936, N 13501, total 37812, D +2408
Open seat; Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison retiring.

Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties.

Lee County makes up 59% of this district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest in the the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson. So basically the same seat Fraise had adjusted for population; not much you can change about lines when you're in a corner of the state. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off the party registration edge.

Fort Madison Mayor Steve Ireland was the early Democratic favorite, but he dropped out shortly before his death from cancer in March. His campaign chair Donna Amandus ran, but finished second in the primary behind labor activist Rich Taylor of Mt. Pleasant, 50-35%. Third candidate Bob Morawitz polled 15%.

The leading Republican, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, announced before Fraise's retirement was official. He easily won his primary against former congressional candidate Lee Harder, 71-29%.

Independent Michael Garmoe announced his candidacy early in the year but has been way below the radar.

Party ID favors Taylor; each candidate has a base in the opposite party's county, but Lee County is more Democratic than Henry County is Republican.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Kruse for Senate, Rich Taylor Campaign Fund Kruse has $5,402.17 on hand. Taylor trails with $3,193.08, but he was spending on a tougher primary.

House District 83
Registration: D 8705, R 3455, N 6445, total 18627, D +5250
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk

Kearns picked up the Keokuk-Ft. Madison seat in 2008 when Phil Wise retired. He won with a clear majority in a three way primary, then won the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010.

This year's Republican, Jim Steffen, started late too. He tried to get nominated as a primary write-in, but that's harder than it would seem, so Republicans had a convention. He has the toughest turf of any Republican on the ballot: the number four Democratic seat.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Steffen for House, Kearns for State Representative Committee Kaarns has just $2,982.92 on hand, not much for an incumbent. But Steffen is at just $475.

House District 84
Registration: D 4639, R 7481, N 7056, total 19185, R +2842
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant

Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. The seemingly small changes this decade boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Heaton

Senate District 42, House District 83 & 84: District of the Day 1 - 6/21/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

Saturday, August 18, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 35, Iowa House District 69 & 70

Senate District 35
Registration: D 14725, R 8504, N 13535, total 36801, D +6221
Incumbent: Wally Horn, D-Cedar Rapids; holdover seat

Just to calm you down after that Marion post, here's some dull southwest Cedar Rapids contests.

Horn is Iowa's senior legislator, elected to the House in 1972 and moving over to the Senate after a decade. Wally hasn't even seen an opponent since 1990, and the last excitement of any sort was in 1991 when he and fellow Democrat Rich Running were paired (Running made a Senate to House switch). Horn will hold over till 2014, when he'll be 80.

House District 69
Registration: D 6907, R 3651, N 6595, total 17171, D +3256
Incumbent: Kirsten Running-Marquardt, D-Cedar Rapids, unopposed

Running-Marquardt won this seat easily in a late 2009 special election when Dick Taylor resigned. Her father had served much of the same area in the House and Senate, and Kirsten had earned her own stripes with a decade in the trenches of campaign and labor staffing. She had a rematch with her special election opponent in the 2010 general, winning with over 63%.

Kirsten's old seat was virtually all in Cedar Rapids. The new district expands outward south and west to the Johnson and Benton County lines, taking in Fairfax and the Linn County piece of Walford. The lines move west through midtown. Kirsten loses the core of downtown, Coe, and the Czech Village area. The changes cut about 900 voters off of Running-Marquardt's Democratic registration edge, but this remains solid Democratic turf.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Iowans for Kirsten Running-Marquardt

House District 70
Registration: D 7818, R 4853, N 6940, total 19630, D +2965
Incumbent: Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids

Todd Taylor was the younger but senior Taylor in the House when he served with Dick Taylor. Todd picked this seat in a 1995 special when Kirsten's dad Rich Running stepped down. Taylor's 58% in 2010 was probably the low mark for Democrats.

Sometimes Taylor gets an opponent and this is one of those times. Republicans called a late convention and chose business owner Lance Lefebure. His business produces high-end GPS equipment designed for ag use, and he seems like he might have been a decent candidate for a more rural seat.

Taylor's turf does stretch out into the county for the first time, but it's still essentially an urban Cedar Rapids seat. Taylor keeps the flood-ravaged Time Check area; the line between his district and Running-Marquardt's moves south and gets smoother, mostly following 16th Avenue SW. There's almost no change in the district's solid Democratic edge.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Taylor for Representative

Senate District 35, House District 69 & 70: District of the Day 1 - 6/10/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 22, Iowa House District 43 & 44

Senate District 22
Registration: D 10564, R 15374, N 12464, total 38423, R +4810
Incumbent: Pat Ward, R-West Des Moines and/or Clive

I'll be honest; I thought Pat Ward was a goner. But after the hottest, nastiest (mostly from her opponent) primary in the state, the relocated Ward topped megachurch minister Jeff Mullen by a solid 58-42%.

The district is half Polk, half Dallas: Clive, Waukee, Windsor Heights and parts of WDM. The Polk half she had before, the Dallas half she did not. Ward was elected in a hurry-up special during the 2004 session, easily won a full term that fall and got by unopposed in 2008.

Attorney Desmund Adams is a great Democratic candidate in a lousy Democratic district. Adams has been high-profile and actually was ahead of both Republicans in fundraising on the January 19 reports. But frankly his chances would have been much better against Mullen.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Adams for Senate, Ward for Senate Adams led cash on hand with $11,449.52, though of course he didn't have a contested primary. Ward was down to $4,176.01 on hand, with $16,541.51 spend during the filing period that included the end of the primary.

House District 43
Registration: D 6513, R 7964, N 5094, total 19583, R +1451
Incumbent: Chris Hagenow, R-Windsor Heights

Lines stay similar: Windsor Heights, the Polk part of Clive, and part of northern West Des Moines. It's long and skinny but Clive's elongated boundaries kind of force that.

Hagenow has a tough race when teh seat was open in 2008, beating Windsor Heights mayor Jerry Sullivan by just 91 votes. He had an easier time in 2010, with 58%. The reality is probably between those two margins. Lines stay similar: Windsor Heights, the Polk part of Clive, and part of northern West Des Moines. It's long and skinny but Clive's elongated boundaries kind of force that. Hagenow gains about 200 Republicans compared to the old lines, which could be useful given the 2008 margin.

Democrats have recruited economic-development professional Susan Judkins of Clive.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hagenow for Iowa House, Citizens for Susan Judkins This seat won't go cheap. Judkins is a serious fundraiser with $25,107.32 on hand. She's kicked in $3500 in personal money; there's also labor, law and banking money and all sorts of Democratic rainmakers. Hagenow, for his part, has $20,512.28 on hand.

House District 44
Registration: D 4051, R 7410, N 7370, total 18840, R +3359
No Incumbent

I could have called this one This Is Where Your Other District Went, but that joke's only funny once. I could also call this the Jordan Creek Mall district. This new, no incumbent seat is Waukee plus the Dallas County parts of Clive and West Des Moines, carved out of the old Ralph Watts turf. Waukee grew from just over 5,000 people in the 2000 census to nearly 14,000 in 2010, and becomes the anchor of this seat.

With no incumbents and few roots, I was expecting a multi-way primary like the one in This Is Where Your Other District Went. But the Republicans  settled early on Dallas County GOP chair Rob Taylor. Democrats have a better than Some Dude candidate in West Des Moines Fire Fighter Eric Brenneman.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Iowans for Taylor, Brenneman for Iowa Taylor has $20,123.59 ready to spend. But Brenneman, after a late start, picked up the pace and raised $7,854.00 in the filing period, with $5100 of that from firefighters. He has has $10,682.04 on hand.

Senate District 22, House District 43 & 44: District of the Day 1 - 5/24/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 7, Iowa House District 13 & 14

Senate District 7
Registration: D 11265, R 9067, N 9818, total 30189, D +2198
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat

Bertrand lost a close `08 House race, then beat Democrat Rick Mullin by just 222 votes in 2010. This is the second most Democratic seat held by a Republican; the lines change very little. Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014.

House District 13
Registration: D 5368, R 4889, N 4981, total 15263, D +479
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.

Considering that there were 27 House members paired up on Map Day, it's remarkable how well things shook out. There was one epic primary, and this: the only two-incumbent general election House match-up in the state. And the co-incumbents are mirror images: both young, both in their first term, both took over from retiring senior Democrats, both won by good not great margins.

The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. Turf and party ID give the edge to Hall, as does all the positive PR he got recently for helping alert neighbors to a fire in their building and  winning a Sioux City Fire Department Life Saver Award.

But both teams will throw a lot at this race, as you'll see:

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hall for Iowa, Taylor for Iowa House Hall raised $18,621.37 in the weeks after the primary, including $5500 in labor money, and has $48,383.41 in the bank. Taylor raised $7,003.68 in recent weeks, including $1000 from the ideological Hawkeye PAC and $500 from the chiropractor's PAC. He has $28,056.13 on hand.

House District 14
Registration: D 5897, R 4178, N 4837, total 14926, D +1719
No Incumbent

In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Dawson For Iowa House, Grupp For Iowa House Another race both teams are serious about. Grupp has the edge with $21,064.95 on hand. Dawson has $17,586.38 in the bank including $3000 in recent labor money.

Senate District 7, House District 13 & 14: District of the Day 1 - 5/03/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

Friday, March 16, 2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 35, Iowa House District 69 & 70

Senate District 35
Registration: D 16603, R 9518, N 15911, total 42083, D +7085
Incumbent: Wally Horn, D-Cedar Rapids; holdover seat

Horn is Iowa's senior legislator (Jack Kibbie served earlier, but was out for two decades and has served less total time.) The Cedar Rapids Democrat was first elected to the House in 1972 and after a decade there moved over to the Senate in 1982. Wally hasn't even seen an opponent since 1990, and the last excitement of any sort was in 1991 when he and fellow Democrat Rich Running were paired (Running made a Senate to House switch). Horn will hold over till 2014, when he'll be 80.

Horn's turf has always, generally speaking, been on the south and west of Cedar Rapids. (The actual quadrants, marked by the river and 1st Avenue, would be NW and SW) This decade it gets geographically bigger, moving out into the county. The Democratic registration margin drops by almost 1000 but stays in the safe D range.

Campaign finance reports: Re-election of Wally Horn Committee

House District 69
Registration: D 8004, R 4119, N 7886, total 20038, D +3885
Incumbent: Kirsten Running-Marquardt, D-Cedar Rapids

The last two transitions in this seat have been in special elections. Dick Taylor won in early 2000 when Kay Halloran stepped down (this was well before she was Cedar Rapids Mayor). He moved in 2001 when he was part of a triple-up in redistricting, then resigned in late 2009.

The Democratic convention in 2009 was more competitive than the special election. The winner, Kirsten Running-Marquardt, spent a decade in the trenches of campaign and labor staffing before following her father's footsteps to the legislature. She had a rematch with her special election opponent in the 2010 general, winning with over 63%.

Kirsten's old seat was virtually all in Cedar Rapids (except one trailer court on an unincorporated fragment). The new district expands outward south and west to the Johnson and Benton County lines, taking in the city of Fairfax, Fairfax and College Townships, and the Linn County piece of Walford.

The lines move west through midtown. Kirsten loses Precinct 5, which is the core of downtown and the Coe campus. She also loses precincts 3 and 4 in the Czech Village area. Tyler Olson picks up all these. KR-M keeps precinct 6, which includes Mays Island and all the downtown bridges. The changes cut about 900 voters off of Running-Marquardt's Democratic registration edge, but this remains solid Democratic turf, solid enough that no Republican has filed.

Campaign finance reports: Iowans for Kirsten Running-Marquardt

House District 70
Registration: D 8599, R 5399, N 8025, total 22045, D +3200
Incumbent: Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids

Todd Taylor was the younger but senior Taylor in the House Taylor Caucus when he served with Dick Taylor. Todd picked this seat in a 1995 special when Rich Running stepped down. Mostly smooth sailing since; some unopposed races, never a really serious GOP effort. Taylor's 58% in 2010 was probably the low mark for Democrats.

Taylor keeps the flood-ravaged Time Check area; the line between his district and Running-Marquardt's moves south and gets smoother, mostly following 16th Avenue SW, as Taylor picks up precinct 11. Outside the city limits, he adds Clinton Township. There's almost no change in the district's solid Democratic edge, and the GOP didn't file here either.

Campaign finance reports: Taylor for Representative

Original post 6/10/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House