Sunday, January 31, 2016

In 2008, Rural Counties Had Less Caucus Goers Per Delegate

This is a rewrite of a post from 2007. 2008 turnout by county data was next to impossible to find, but Bleeding Heartland finally tracked it down. She did the legwork, I just did the math.

Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight.  Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and especially Martin O'Malley have spent a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately.

An analysis of 2008 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 96 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, up from 41 caucus goers per to elect a state delegate equivalent in 2004. But this year, unlike 2004, no place is more than double or less than half the state average.

Some counties are full of go-to-meeting activists while others have more rank and file voters.

The easiest place to elect a delegate was Osceola County, where it took 59.67 attendees per state delegate equivalent. The bottom ten is filled with small, rural, GOP leaning counties, with the curious exception of Clinton.

And once again, the hardest places to elect state delegates were campus counties. In Winneshiek, home to Decorah's Luther College, it took 138 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, 2.3 times as many as in Osceola. Johnson County, the hardest place to elect a delegate in 2004, is narrowly behind Winneshiek at 134 bodies per state delegate equivalent.

Put another way: A "vote" in Osceola County is worth more than twice as much as getting out a Luther undergrad.

But it's worth noting that with the turnout surge almost everywhere in 2008, the range between counties is narrower than it was in 2004. In that year  it took 79.2 people to elect a Johnson County delegate, nearly twice the state average and almost four times the level of Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

The top ten of hardest places to elect delegates were college counties including Story and Jefferson (Fairfield) and high growth suburban areas like Dallas and Warren counties. And, oddly, a couple of the most Republican places in the state, Page and Sioux counties. I didn't even think there WERE 743 Democrats in Sioux County.

High growth makes it harder to elect a delegate from your county. A voter who moved to Dallas County three years ago won't count in the county's presidential vote totals used to calculate delegates, because they voted somewhere else.  A voter who moved in after the gubernatorial election wouldn't count at all toward the delegate count.

The flip side is, people in shrinking rural counties who moved away or passed away still contribute to the county's delegate allocation, meaning it takes fewer LIVE bodies to win delegates..


The caucuses take place in a mythical, projected version of a general election voting population, because caucus apportionment is based on votes for the top of the ticket.  In 2008 the counts were based on votes for John Kerry in 2004 and Chet Culver in 2006; likewise this year's counts are based on Obama `12 and Jack Hatch. 

This means candidates can't run up the score with big wins in big counties, and it mutes the impact of isolated turnout waves.  Whether 30 students or 300 show up in Iowa City Precinct 5 (all dorms and frat houses), the same six delegates are at stake. 

Ultimately, the apportionment rules mean candidates have to carefully allocate their resources and fight on all fronts at once, and part of that allocation is making the effort where the most bang for the buck is available -- the small towns.


Rank County Attendance State Delegate Equivalent (2008) Attendees Per Delegate (2008)
1 Winneshiek 2347 17 138.06
2 Johnson 18362 137 134.03
3 Dallas 5000 39 128.21
4 Polk 44098 358 123.18
5 Story 9227 77 119.83
6 Jefferson 1722 15 114.80
7 Warren 4230 38 111.32
8 Audubon 542 5 108.40
9 Page 745 7 106.43
10 Sioux 732 7 104.57
11 Marion 2405 23 104.57
12 Decatur 627 6 104.50
13 Poweshiek 1735 17 102.06
14 Madison 1205 12 100.42
15 Boone 2390 24 99.58
16 Mills 694 7 99.14
17 Greene 786 8 98.25
18 Kossuth 1354 14 96.71
19 Carroll 1536 16 96.00
20 Muscatine 3069 32 95.91
21 Jasper 3282 35 93.77
22 Harrison 937 10 93.70
23 Cass 843 9 93.67
24 Des Moines 3761 41 91.73
25 Iowa 1184 13 91.08
26 Webster 2912 32 91.00
27 Henry 1273 14 90.93
28 Clayton 1453 16 90.81
29 Cedar 1451 16 90.69
30 Wapello 2784 31 89.81
31 Linn 18139 202 89.80
32 Scott 12552 142 88.39
33 Hamilton 1228 14 87.71
34 Washington 1393 16 87.06
35 Jackson 1738 20 86.90
36 Fayette 1557 18 86.50
37 Palo Alto 690 8 86.25
38 Marshall 2757 32 86.16
39 Guthrie 774 9 86.00
40 Pottawattamie 4723 55 85.87
41 Woodbury 5836 68 85.82
42 Montgomery 514 6 85.67
43 Adams 256 3 85.33
43 Bremer 1792 21 85.33
45 Grundy 679 8 84.88
46 Dubuque 7627 90 84.74
47 Adair 506 6 84.33
48 Sac 589 7 84.14
49 Fremont 419 5 83.80
50 Lee 2846 34 83.71
51 Mahaska 1070 13 82.31
52 Davis 492 6 82.00
53 Monona 655 8 81.88
54 Wayne 409 5 81.80
55 Plymouth 1063 13 81.77
56 Hardin 1144 14 81.71
57 Tama 1306 16 81.63
58 Floyd 1224 15 81.60
59 Buchanan 1626 20 81.30
60 Lyon 324 4 81.00
61 Jones 1451 18 80.61
62 Clay 963 12 80.25
63 Black Hawk 9382 117 80.19
64 Lucas 559 7 79.86
65 Buena Vista 954 12 79.50
65 Wright 795 10 79.50
67 Crawford 791 10 79.10
68 Appanoose 867 11 78.82
69 Union 706 9 78.44
70 Humboldt 548 7 78.29
71 Ida 391 5 78.20
72 Monroe 469 6 78.17
73 O'Brien 546 7 78.00
74 Allamakee 934 12 77.83
75 Dickinson 1082 14 77.29
76 Keokuk 614 8 76.75
77 Chickasaw 996 13 76.62
78 Pocahontas 455 6 75.83
79 Louisa 605 8 75.63
80 Van Buren 377 5 75.40
81 Delaware 1126 15 75.07
82 Benton 1723 23 74.91
83 Franklin 598 8 74.75
84 Cerro Gordo 3416 46 74.26
85 Worth 588 8 73.50
86 Ringgold 367 5 73.40
87 Winnebago 656 9 72.89
88 Calhoun 583 8 72.88
89 Shelby 575 8 71.88
90 Clarke 568 8 71.00
91 Howard 631 9 70.11
92 Clinton 3203 46 69.63
93 Cherokee 693 10 69.30
94 Hancock 618 9 68.67
95 Emmet 539 8 67.38
96 Mitchell 663 10 66.30
97 Butler 729 11 66.27
98 Taylor 318 5 63.60
99 Osceola 179 3 59.67
Total 239872 2500  - average 95.95

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