District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 14, Iowa House District 27 & 28

Senate District 14
Registration: D 10737, R 13327, N 12873, total 36963, R +2590
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring.

Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election last year probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus and primary activity has boosted Republican rolls, but we're still talking about a much less Republican seat than the old one.

The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County.

Both parties saw enough opportunity to draw contested primaries, and both primaries were landslides. In the Republican side, Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was way ahead of Steven Everly of Knoxville, 66-28%. A third candidate, Stephanie Jones of Knoxville, drew attention mainly for an arrest shortly after filing, and won less than 7%.

Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, was a two to one primary winner over 2008 House loser James Demichelis.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Dick Schrad for Senate, Sinclair for Iowa Both candidates are deficit spending. Schrad had $2,201.41 on hand with a little more than that, $2,458.73, in loans outstanding. Sinclair has more on hand, $4,294.73, but has $8100 in loans out.

House District 27
Registration: D 5329, R 6313, N 6345, total 18004, R +984
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola, no Democratic candidate

 Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win in one of 2010's bigger upsets. Reasoner was from Creston, in Union County, which is now out of the district.  The district keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

Fry drew a nuisance primary challenge from James Demichelis, Junior., not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes of different parties. Fry easily won 86-14%.

This is the most Democratic seat that the Democrats left officially uncontested, number 60 on the depth chart. But there's kinda sorta a Democrat in the race: Ruth Smith of Lamoni filed as an independent on the last day of filing. Smith ran for the Senate twice as a Democrat, losing to Kim Reynolds in 2008 and to Joni Ernst in the 2011 special when Reynolds became lieutenant governor.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Fry for Iowa House

House District 28
Registration: D 5408, R 7014, N 6528, total 18959, R +1606
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring.

It's a culture clash race, as home birth meets home school.

Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude, and outpolled him 76-24% in the primary. He faces Democrat Megan Suhr in the fall. She's a doula, which is a birth coach and assisant.

Rich Arnold has held the seat since 1994, winning comfortably in recent years. The line changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Heartsill for Iowa, Megan Suhr for Iowa It looks like Heartsill is starting to spend. He took in $5,764.50 post-primary but spent $7,075.65, for an on hand balance of $1,533.36. Suhr has $3,284.98. Or "had"; as I write the July 19 reports are a month old and no one but the insiders will know more until October.

Senate District 14, House District 27 & 28: District of the Day 1 - 5/12/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 14, Iowa House District 27 & 28

Senate District 14
Registration: D 12402, R 13845, N 15503, total 41776, R +1443
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.

Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus activity has boosted Republican rolls, but it's still potentially competitive.

The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits. Bleeding Heartland has a good look at the district.

Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was first to announce on the Republican side. Wayne is the smallest county in the district, so it looks like Steven Everly of Knoxville sees an opportunity too. Everly works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. Stephanie Jones of Knoxville was the third Republican to file. Some Dude Larry Steele had also announced, but moved to Des Moines and filed in House 36 instead.

Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, has a primary with James Demichelis, who won 33% in a 2008 House race.

Only Sinclair filed a January 19 campaign finance report and she had just $630 on hand.

House District 27
Registration: D 5963, R 6687, N 7602, total 20269, R +724
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola; primary challenge

One of 2010's upsets, Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. He lost about 400 Republicans with redistricting. Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms despite the GOP edge.

Primary challenger James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton is not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes?

Campaign finance reports: Fry for Iowa House

House District 28
Registration: D 6439, R 7158, N 7901, total 21507, R +719
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring. Contested Republican primary

The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.

Arnold was first elected in 1994 and won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. But the changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.

Democrat Megan Suhr was first to announce. Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," looks to be the Republican frontrunner. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude.

Campaign finance reports: Len Gosselink for State Representative, Heartsill for Iowa

Original post 5/12/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate,  House

Campaign Finance From The In-box

With the campaign finance filings out as of Thursday, I'm working up a big picture kind of story. This is an important stage in the triage process: serious contenders had better be in the race by now and raising significant dollars. But here's a few stories from around our fair state to tide you over while I number crunch:

They're already talking Million Dollar Race in Mike Gronstal's Senate District 8, but GOP challenger Al Ringgenberg only raised $5,745 last year and had less than $500 left in the bank. The money will come, no doubt, but Gronstal raised $349,762 last year, and has $434,275 on hand. Usually that leadership money goes to help in the tough races, but in this case Mike is the guy with the tough race. And the winner is -- Omaha TV ad sales reps.

GOP House leaderhip had a good haul, too: "Iowa House GOP leaders Thursday touted setting a record for their 2011 fundraising. (Speaker Kraig) Paulsen raised $253,914 and had $215,580 left in his campaign war chest, while House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, raised $211,631 and had $189,777 going into this election year."

I missed this announcement: Republican Jane Jech isn't letting two straight losses to Marshalltown Dem Mark Smith deter her. She has her ambitions set higher this cycle, challenging Senator Steve Sodders in Senate District 36. Finance reports show Sodders with a big cash on hand lead: $26,630 in cash on hand compared to $784 for Jech.

Democrat Desmund Adams outraised both Republicans in Polk-Dallas Senate District 22. And primary challenger Jeff Mullen outraised the moving-in incumbent, Pat Ward:

The Adams for Senate campaign raised $18,655 for the 2012 November election. Sen. Pat Ward (R) presently representing Senate district 30 raised a total of $11,095 mostly from PACS while her Republican primary opponent, pastor Jeff Mullen of Waukee, raised $13,195.

From Knoxville, a look at open Senate and House races: Greg Heartsill looks to be the main-chance contender in the retiring Republican Rich Arnold's House 28. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling (another announcement I missed) by several orders of magnitude. Winner sees Democrat Megan Day Suhr in the fall.

Schueller To Try Comeback

Democrat Tom Schueller, one of 2010's unlikeliest victims, is on the comeback trail, seeking to regain the House District 58 legislative seat he lost last year to Brian Moore.

Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.

This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.

The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.

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Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.

desmoinesdem notes:

Iowa House Democrats did not appear to be represented at the (Suhr kickoff) event, nor did I receive a press release about Suhr from the House Democrats. In contrast, the House Democrats publicized campaign announcements by Joe Riding in district 30, Rich Olive in district 48, Bill Heckroth in district 63, Art Staed in district 66, Daniel Lundby in district 68, Rachel Bly in district 76, Joe Judge in district 80, Sara Sedlacek in district 88, and Frank Wood in district 92.

And, as I write, the Schueller release from the House Dems hits my inbox. Suhr seems serious, but lists her profession as "doula," which loosely translates as midwife. My guess is that "doula" sounds kind of, how do I say this, Fairfield in Knoxville. Home birth vs. home school: House 28 sounds like quite the culture clash.

District of the Day: Senate District 14, House District 27 and 28

District of the Day: Senate District 14, House District 27 and 28

Senate District 14

Registration: D 12299, R 12921, N 14401, total 39645, R+ 622
Incumbent: Paul McKinley, R-Chariton UPDATE November 2: McKinley retiring.

The Senate minority leader is now getting his third district, with his native Lucas County the only constant. McKinley started out in 2000 by knocking off John Judge, who filled out the last two years of Patty's term when she was elected Secretary of Ag, in a sprawling six-county border district that ran from Bloomfield to Osceola. The district shifted north and added all of GOP-friendly Marion County and Mcinley easily won two more terms.

McKinley's new territory cuts the old Judge base in Monroe County out for the first time. He gets back Clarke and Lucas, which he had in 2000, and adds Decatur for the first time. To the north, McKinley keeps most of Marion County, but loses Pella. He keeps a small piece of Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits.

The changes make McKinley's district significantly less Republican. He goes from a Republican voter registration edge of 3844 to a much more swingy 622. Isn't he the one who said redistricting is Iowa's version of term limits? In any case, McKinley briefly expressed higher ambitions in 2009 when he announced for governor, only to bail when Branstad came in to clear the field. Paul's in his early 60s so any ambitions need to happen fairly soon. But for the 2012 cycle I expect him to run again in the new seat in the hopes of picking up a couple senators and taking the majority.

House District 27

Registration: D 5913, R 6307, N 7046, total 19283, R+ 394
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola

One of last year's upsets, Fry, 35, knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. The old seat had a GOP registration edge of 791, and Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms. The new seat has about 400 fewer Republicans.

House District 28

Registration: D 6386, R 6614, N 7355, total 20362, R+ 228
Incumbent: Rich Arnold, R-Russell retiring, open seat

UPDATE October 27: Democrat Megan Day Suhr announces.

UPDATE May 18: Reader American007 cites Chariton newspaper report that Arnold is retiring. Knoxville Journal-Express:

“After careful consideration, I’ve decided not to seek re-election to the House. It’s truly been an honor and privilege to serve Iowans and to have been a part of Iowa’s citizen government,” said Arnold. “Meeting and working with my constituents has been one of the greatest pleasures of my experience as a representative. I appreciate all of the support, input and encouragement over the years.”

Maybe Van Engelenhoven has an escape route now?

Arnold was first elected in 1994 and his toughest scrape was getting paired in the 2001 map. The other guy, Jim Van Engelenhoven, moved and got paired again this time. He won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, Arnold gets the smaller, eastern part: Williamson and his town, Russell. He loses his piece of Mahaska and all of Monroe County, which becomes the core of new, empty House 80. His chunk of Marion County expands, at Van Engelenhoven's expense, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and he also gets part of southern Jasper. The changes cost Arnold 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map