Senate District 14
Registration: D 12402, R 13845, N 15503, total 41776, R +1443
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.
Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus activity has boosted Republican rolls, but it's still potentially competitive.
The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits. Bleeding Heartland has a good look at the district.
Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was first to announce on the Republican side. Wayne is the smallest county in the district, so it looks like Steven Everly of Knoxville sees an opportunity too. Everly works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. Stephanie Jones of Knoxville was the third Republican to file. Some Dude Larry Steele had also announced, but moved to Des Moines and filed in House 36 instead.
Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, has a primary with James Demichelis, who won 33% in a 2008 House race.
Only Sinclair filed a January 19 campaign finance report and she had just $630 on hand.
House District 27
Registration: D 5963, R 6687, N 7602, total 20269, R +724
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola; primary challenge
One of 2010's upsets, Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.
In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. He lost about 400 Republicans with redistricting. Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms despite the GOP edge.
Primary challenger James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton is not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes?
Campaign finance reports: Fry for Iowa House
House District 28
Registration: D 6439, R 7158, N 7901, total 21507, R +719
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring. Contested Republican primary
The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.
Arnold was first elected in 1994 and won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. But the changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.
Democrat Megan Suhr was first to announce. Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," looks to be the Republican frontrunner. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude.
Campaign finance reports: Len Gosselink for State Representative, Heartsill for Iowa
Original post 5/12/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
The worst.
Showing posts with label Megan Day Suhr. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Megan Day Suhr. Show all posts
Friday, March 16, 2012
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Schueller To Try Comeback
Democrat Tom Schueller, one of 2010's unlikeliest victims, is on the comeback trail, seeking to regain the House District 58 legislative seat he lost last year to Brian Moore.
Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.
Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.
desmoinesdem notes:
Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.
This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.
The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.
Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.
desmoinesdem notes:
Iowa House Democrats did not appear to be represented at the (Suhr kickoff) event, nor did I receive a press release about Suhr from the House Democrats. In contrast, the House Democrats publicized campaign announcements by Joe Riding in district 30, Rich Olive in district 48, Bill Heckroth in district 63, Art Staed in district 66, Daniel Lundby in district 68, Rachel Bly in district 76, Joe Judge in district 80, Sara Sedlacek in district 88, and Frank Wood in district 92.And, as I write, the Schueller release from the House Dems hits my inbox. Suhr seems serious, but lists her profession as "doula," which loosely translates as midwife. My guess is that "doula" sounds kind of, how do I say this, Fairfield in Knoxville. Home birth vs. home school: House 28 sounds like quite the culture clash.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
McKinley Out
Paul McKinley makes the inevitable official, stepping down as Iowa Senate GOP leader and, for good measure announcing he won't run for re-election next year.
The news itself isn't a shocker. Consensus seems to be that Bill Dix had the votes in September when he tried his coup d'etat, but his co-conspirators got squeamish about pulling the trigger while McKinley was vacationing outside the country.
But the timing, just six days before the Battle of Marion special election that could have made McKinley Co-Leader, not Minority leader, is interesting.
As always, I note that Iowa Senate Republican leader is the Spinal Tap Drummer of political posts: three coups and a retirement in bad health since 2006. Dozens of leaders spontaneously combust each year, it's just not widely reported. And as often happens, losing a leadership fight leads to a complete retirement from the chamber.
In addition to the internal GOP battle, McKinley's retirement opens up Senate District 14, which had changed quite a bit from his old turf. The new district is swing turf, with an April GOP reg edge of 622. It includes Clarke, Lucas, and Decatur counties, most of Marion County (but not Pella) and southern Jasper all the way up to the Newton city limits.
The House members in the district are both Republicans: freshman Joel Fry and retiring Richard Arnold. Democrat Megan Day Suhr has announced in House 28, the open Arnold seat.
The news itself isn't a shocker. Consensus seems to be that Bill Dix had the votes in September when he tried his coup d'etat, but his co-conspirators got squeamish about pulling the trigger while McKinley was vacationing outside the country.
But the timing, just six days before the Battle of Marion special election that could have made McKinley Co-Leader, not Minority leader, is interesting.
As always, I note that Iowa Senate Republican leader is the Spinal Tap Drummer of political posts: three coups and a retirement in bad health since 2006. Dozens of leaders spontaneously combust each year, it's just not widely reported. And as often happens, losing a leadership fight leads to a complete retirement from the chamber.
In addition to the internal GOP battle, McKinley's retirement opens up Senate District 14, which had changed quite a bit from his old turf. The new district is swing turf, with an April GOP reg edge of 622. It includes Clarke, Lucas, and Decatur counties, most of Marion County (but not Pella) and southern Jasper all the way up to the Newton city limits.
The House members in the district are both Republicans: freshman Joel Fry and retiring Richard Arnold. Democrat Megan Day Suhr has announced in House 28, the open Arnold seat.
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