Bailey Not Running

Bailey Not Running

It'll be three open seats for Iowa City Council this fall, as District C's Regeinia Bailey told supporters this week she will step down after two terms.

Bailey joins District A's Ross Wilburn and at-larger Michael Wright in not seeking re-election. The other member elected in 2007, Mayor Matt Hayek, announced yesterday he'll seek a second term.

Bailey was mayor in 2008 and 2009, through the Summer Of The Flood, which produced incriminating pictures of Bailey with George W. Bush touring the damage. She was also was the only no vote on the 21 bar ordinance.

This was a revolving door seat for a long stretch in the 1990s: Randy Larson, Bruno Pigott winning a half term in a 1993 special... Dean Thornberry beat him in `95, then Irv Pfab beat Thornberry in `99.

Bailey and Dean Shannon beat Pfab in the `03 primary, which is the only time that's happened in the three-plus decades of Iowa City's screwy convoluted district system (Insert standard rant here.) Bailey then won a solid victory over Shannon in the general and a second term unopposed in 2007.

A candidate would have to live in District C, which is basically (to oversimplify) the north side and downtown. This is the district with the best shot of getting a student through a primary, though to get elected you have to win city wide.

There have been some big ballot issues the last few years but we haven't had three open Iowa City council seats on one ballot since 1993. So this one could set the direct for the city for the better part of the decade.

Mascher Makes Move

Mascher Makes Move

The legislative pair-up in Johnson County has been resolved pretty much as expected, as the Register reports Iowa City Rep. Mary Mascher will move, basically, back into her district, new House District 86.

This was the most obvious "my district, just not my house" move in the state. Fellow Democrat Dave Jacoby picked up one extra west side Iowa City precinct in his Coralville-dominated district (old 30, new 74). For the locals: Jacoby had Iowa City 7 and 8 before. He added Iowa City 9, which happened to be Mascher's precinct.

Mascher's "new" district keeps the rest of the west side and University Heights. She loses Manville Heights, the peninsula, and part of campus and downtown. She gets back a chunk of the south side that she had from her first election in 1994 through the 2001 redistricting. Mascher also has, for the first time, the city of Hills.

New House 86 is, by party registration, the third most Democratic seat in the state. (Number One is Vicki Lensing's new seat, 85, just to the north.) It also happens to be my district so I'll get to vote for Mary for the first time; my last two residences have been literally across the street from her district.

Redistricting and Moving Day

Redistricting and Moving Day

I'm in my niche; I'm staying there.

The Big News is of course the Vilsacks move to Ames. Apparantly they have closed a deal, much to Krusty's disappointment. KK was hoping the Vilsacks and Tom Latham would simply swap. He also looks, literally, at other properties for the incumbent who has everything, except a house in the right place.

On a much smaller scale, Louisa County is looking to trim from eight precincts down to five. When I ran dowm ther 15 years ago, I remember them having 13.

And the true unsung hero of Iowa Clean Redistricting: Ed Cook of the Legislative Service Agency. Other states, North Carolina in particular, are looking at our process, but could it really work without someone like this?

Fallon: Boswell Will Lose

Fallon: Boswell Will Lose

As the Christie Vilsack vs. Steve King talk gets more serious, Ed Fallon weighs in on the race Vilsack probably wanted and says what nobody except he and I seem to say:

Sorry folks, but I have to speak truth to Democratic Party power and tell you that if the Democrat Establishment wants this seat to remain in the "D" column, it will lean so hard on Boswell that even this entrenched relic from a bygone political era will feel compelled to retire.

Face it: Boswell can't beat Latham. The last time Iowa had a congressional district much like the new Third, the younger, quasi-moderate Greg Ganske beat entrenched Congressman Neal Smith. It'll happen again unless Boswell steps aside or gets beat in a primary by an independent-minded Democrat with populist appeal to both rural and urban voters.

(And just in case you're wondering, I have less than zero inclination to throw my hat in that ring again.)

On the plus side for Vilsack:

Party leaders have given Vilsack their blessing to run against King, with one knowledgeable Democratic source telling POLITICO that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told Vilsack last week during a meeting at the committee’s Capitol Hill offices that he would pledge to support her if she challenges (King).

You know who the real winners are here? Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack. In any cycle, resources are limited. The Republican's top priority is going to be protecting Latham, and the ideological party faithful will want to help their hero King. That means le$$ left over to battle Braley and Loebsack.

In the meantime, Mr. President, care to visit Ames next October?

Willems Announces for State Senate

Willems Announces for State Senate

If you have to run on mostly new turf anyway, why not step up:

Willems Announces Candidacy for State Senate

Nate Willems, an employment attorney and two-term State Representative from Lisbon, has announced his candidacy for the Iowa State Senate. Willems will run for Senate District 48, which includes Delaware and parts of Linn, Jones & Buchanan counties. The district is currently vacant due to redistricting.

“I have worked hard in the Iowa House on programs that foster job growth and improve access to quality, affordable education for Iowa families,” Willems said. “I believe that a strong, forward-looking educational system is critical to the future economic success of our kids. We must continue to improve our schools and colleges so that our workers can get the job training that today’s economy demands and so our kids can learn the skills for the jobs of tomorrow.”

Willems said he was excited by the opportunity to represent the communities that make up Senate District 48.

“It has been a tremendous privilege to serve the people of Eastern Iowa in the Iowa House and I look forward to opportunity to continue to serve them in the Iowa Senate,” Willems said. “My wife and I grew up in this new senate district and we’re raising our family here because it’s a great place to live.”

Willems and his wife, Maggie, live in Lisbon and are the parents of two daughters, Ava who is 2 and Emery, 1. Nate is an Associate at Rush & Nicholson, P.L.C. He is also active in the Lincoln Highway Lisbon Lions Club. Maggie teaches Social Studies at Mount Vernon High School and coaches high school volleyball and track. Nate and Maggie are members of First Presbyterian Church in Mount Vernon.

Willems is a 1997 graduate of Anamosa High School, a 2001 graduate of Georgetown University and a 2007 graduate of the University of Iowa College of Law.

Willems promised to campaign by talking personally with as many voters as possible across the district.

“I believe that listening is one of the best ways to learn,” said Willems. “People are welcome to call me at my home, 319-455-3014 or email me at nwillemsATgmail.com.”

Willems went to the House in `08 when Ro Foege retired. The old district (29) was half Johnson, half Linn. The new House turf (95) kept just Mt. Vernon-Lisbon and Springville, then went into north rural Linn and a tiny bit of Buchanan. The Senate seat adds House 96, which is also empty but looks a lot like Republican Lee Hein's old seat. It covers all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones (cities of Anamosa and Monticello).

Senate 48 is the most evenly split Senate district in the state with a Democratic registration edge of -- I am not making this up -- ONE voter.

Redistricting Roundup

Redistricting Roundup

No Branstad autograph on The Map over the weekend but the analyzing and planning continues...

The Register offered a numbercruncher with Senate and House stats. Check out Ankeny, which grew enough to split for the first time. GOP Rep. Kevin Koester finds himself in House 38, which has a very slim D registration edge, while empty House 37 has a GOP edge of over 2000. I'm just sayin'.

Also zinged:

Assistant Majority Leader Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna, now lives in a district with a 21-voter Republican advantage. In his new district, there are 2,326 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

"It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me," Lukan said of his re-election prospects. "I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."

And according to the article and Linda Upmeyer herself: the majority leader may move out of the triple-up in House District 8: "I also very much appreciate the emails and phone calls I have been getting, asking me to move into the 'new' 54th district. It is something my family and I will continue to discuss, and something I will seriously consider." With Stew Iverson apparantly slated for open Senate 4, that would let Henry Rayhons stay on in House 8. But an Upmeyer move to 54 would close off that escape route for Annette Sweeney, now paired with Grandson Grassley.

Omaha World-Herald has a Greater Council Bluffs perspective including the Brandenburg-Hanusa pair, Nancy Boettger on her pair with (a not quoted) James Seymour, and a generally unaffected Mike Gronstal.

KTIV Sioux City mentions the Hall-Taylor pair in town, the Dan Huseman-Royd Chambers pair to the north, and the brutal prospects for Democrat Sen. Jack Kibbie, paired with the GOP's David Johnson on red turf.

Just names and lines, no quotes, in this Oskaloosa story.

The Lucas Countyan, an eclectic blogger and apparently a lonesome Dem, is happy to join The People's Republic in the 2nd CD but laments his local legislative delegation of Paul McKinley, Joel Fry and Rich Arnold.

And Paul Deaton of Blog for Iowa made it to the Dave Loebsack-Tammy Baldwin event in UHeights that I regret missing, and reports that The Map was Topic A for chitchat.

Vilsack vs. King?

Vilsack vs. King?

That's been in the rumor mills, but now hits the national political sites. Rothenberg:

Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack (D) is likely to take on Cong. Steve King (R) in Iowa’s new 4th Congressional District, according to a Democratic source in the Hawkeye State. Vilsack, however, has not yet made a final decision.

Swing State Project says new 4 is winnable in a good year:

It's now a district that Obama lost by only 48-50, and even John "Who Among Us Does Not Love NASCAR?" Kerry held down 44% under these lines. In short, that's still tough terrain for a Democrat, but it's significantly more fertile than before; with King's penchant for letting his freak flag fly and a credible opponent working against him, this could be an interesting race.

But as one of my commenters noted in an earlier piece: "Think of all the ActBlue and netroots money pouring in to be used against Steve King, only to see him win yet another term with close to 60% of the vote."

My bet here is Vilsack has been offered something more tangible and winnable for the 2014 cycle as a Plan B.

Also worth mentions:

State Rep. Janet Peterson (D-Des Moines) landed in a very blue empty state senate district 18 and will make that move, opening up a very blue House seat.

The Denison Bulletin-Review talks to Senator James Seymour, who is paired with fellow GOPer Nancy Boettger. Seymour says he'll run again and the implication seems to be primary; I'm still betting he gets talked into backing off. Boettger said on Map Release Day she won't move, and lives on a family farm.

In Council Bluffs, naysaying reps Brandenburg and Hanusa argue that their votes were about the Polk-PottCo congressional map, and NOT about the two of them getting paired.

Stay tuned to this blog: I'm planning much more analysis of the new House and Senate districts in a series to be announced soon.

Map Passes House 91-7, Senate 48-1

Map Passes House 91-7, Senate 48-1

UPDATE: Rep. Jeff Kaufmann responds. See below.

Let's look at the naysayers, all Republicans:

The lone no in the Senate is Sandy Greiner, who inherits a much bigger chunk of the People's Republic of Johnson County. Half her district, in fact: the new open House District 77.

Another Republican who doesn't want more of Johnson is a member of House leadership, Jeff Kaufmann. He loses most of northern Muscatine County. That turns a break-even district into a Democratic leaner. (He's also in the Senate district of Muscatine's Jim Hahn, who gets screwed in a pair with Shawn Hamerlinck of the QC. Hahn said he'd vote no, but in the end didn't.)

The most informative no vote is Annette Sweeney. She got paired with Grandson Grassley, and in a Senate district that's also a Republican pair (Rob Bacon-Bill Dix). Her nay is an indicator that she's the odd one out.

First termers Mark Brandenburg and Mary Ann Hanusa of Council Bluffs got paired in new 16. New 15, in the northwest corner of the city (plus that great geopolitical quirk, Carter Lake) is empty, but it has a solid Democratic registration edge. Brandenburg ran against Mike Gronstal in 2008, so maybe that's an exit strategy for one or the other. They could also be unhappy that the deep red parts of eastern PottCo get wasted in Hubert Houser's turf instead of being a weapon to take down Gronstal.

Royd Chambers got paired with Dan Huseman in deep-red new district 3. Nearby district 2 is empty, but it's not as solidly Republican and not a natural geographic fit. My bet is this is a retirement.

Renee Schulte of Cedar Rapids won a squeaker in 2008. Her old district was fair fight turf, the new seat leans Democratic.

And one just doesn't make sense. Clel Baudler is not paired and his new district leans just a little bit less Republican than the old one. Maybe his clerk pushed the wrong button.

UPDATE: Jeff Kaufmann wrote to me this evening; since he took the time to offer his reasons for voting no I'll share them with you. I'll extend the same courtesy to others if asked. I added the link to the Gazette article he references. Rep. Kaufmann's remarks:

John,

It would have been nice for you to ask me about my NO vote. It had nothing to do with my new House seat. My seat has always been Democratic-leaning and was actually almost 1200 plus Democrats a few years ago. In fact since it is rural Johnson County it is only about a 500 vote difference than my current district even after the 2010 election. Actually a new map could have been much worse for me in party registration (more of the heavily Democratic Iowa City proper or a loss of Wilton where I have tallied 70-80% even in heavily contested elections).

My NO vote had to do with the new Senate District and my constituents, both Democratic and Republican, wanting uniformity in their Senate District instead of a rural county attached to an urban area. My NO vote reflected the desire to have a conversation about uniformity within Senate Districts, something I have talked about for years.

The Gazette did ask me and they have a story that also discusses the partisan and utterly incorrect assessment of my vote by a press release issued by none other than the State Democratic party.

Thanks John. I do appreciate your analysis in the past but this time I wished you would have asked me about my reasons.

The amount of time and hours of constituent work I do in Johnson County every week, I think, is a testament that I am proud of my Johnson County connection and will continue to be proud. Remember I lived in Iowa City for over 2 years and have three degrees from the University. Frankly, I am happy I still represent parts of the county.

Jeff Kaufmann

Redistricting and Iowa Senate Terms

Redistricting and Iowa Senate Terms

Now that our redistricting map is a near-certainty, it's time to ponder one of the few glitches in our clean, clean system: the fate of mid-term senators.

First thing to understand is: Even numbered seats run in the presidential cycle; odd seats are up in the gubernatorial year. I repeat myself for clarity below, but keep this factoid in mind as you read.

My guess, based just on the way it shook out, is that the district numbering is probably the very last thing the Legislative Service Agency does and is probably NOT blind to incumbent addresses. Of the seven now-empty new Senate seats, six are even numbers and only one is odd, which doesn't seem quite random. There also aren't any sorry-them's-the-breaks races where someone who got elected last fall just happened to draw an even number and has to run early for no other reason than the even-odd rule. (It's the lines themselves that are the sorry-them's-the-breaks factor.)

Normal Senate terms are all four years, so everyone who got elected in 2008 has to run again no matter what the district number. But the people who got elected in 2010 for four year terms find themselves in different districts mid-term. Since they were elected to a four year term in 2010, senators elected from old odd districts can just hold over, unless there's two (or in theory more, though there's no three senator seats this time) incumbents in a district. In that case they face off, with the winner getting two years.

Thus, one change I'd make in Iowa's process: I'd make all 25 of the Senate terms in the zero year two years. Then, in the new-map election year ending in 2 I'd elect the whole Senate, half for two years and half for four. Just seems more fair. Every Senate seat would get two four year terms in a decade, with a two year term at the beginning or end of a decade.

A couple states do it like that; a couple others elect the whole Senate to four year terms one cycle, then no senators the opposite cycle. And with its wacky "nonpartisan" unicameral Senate, the less said about Nebraska the better.

But let's deal with what Iowa actually does. At the end of the redistricting bill is the same language we saw ten years ago. Each senator declares an address by February 1, 2012. If there are two senators in an odd district, one of them has to retire by February 15, or else it goes on the ballot for a two year term. (Again, the even number presidential cycle seats are up anyway.)

So who can move where? The code language is a bit convoluted for a layman, but basically if you want to hold over there has to be some old-new turf overlap and you can only move within the old district. So, to pick an example, Matt McCoy can't move from Des Moines to Clinton and just stay in office with no election.

There's no way to figure it all out without help from Deep Blue the chess supercomputer, but between me and redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering we've found some sales leads for the Iowa Association of Realtors.

The most likely two-incumbent, two-year, two-party matchup is in new Senate District 1, where veteran Democrat Jack Kibbie, of old district 4 and thus up anyway, is paired with Republican David Johnson of old 3 on decidedly Republican turf. Kibbie supported the map in committee but is openly pessimistic about his own chances. But if the 82 year old Democrat retires, Johnson simply holds over without an election.

In new Senate 9, Republicans Nancy Boettger and James Seymour are paired. Boettger, who lives on a family farm, has said she won't move. She was just re-elected from old District 29. Seymour is in old District 28, on the presidential cycle. He was unopposed in 2008, when dirty laundry emerged late in the cycle. My bet is Seymour quietly doesn't run and Boettger holds the seat till 2014.

Senate 21, solidly Democratic, is resolved. Republican Pat Ward, last elected in old District 20 in 2008, has said she will move into the redder turf of open District 22. (This is one of those "my district, just not my house" things that Iowa's mapping process creates.) Democrat Matt McCoy, re-elected last year, will hold over till 2014.

Things are messier in new Senate 25, where Republicans Robert Bacon and Bill Dix are paired in a solid Republican district. Both just knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010 in odd number districts, so one or the other could hold over. Dix is a fundraising powerhouse who came up short in the 2006 1st Congressional District primary. Unfortunately for him, his turf is part of that eastward extension of the new 4th CD.

Also unfortunately for the GOP, this is the same area where Annette Sweeney and Pat Grassley are doubled up in House 50. It's critical for the Republicans to resolve this and take care of Grassley the Younger, who has to land on his somewhere for the next four years until, as per the fiendish plan, he's old enough to replace Grandpa in the 2016 Senate race.

(I keep saying this. No one ever denies it.)

Is this the area where we see the fratricidal primaries? There's always one redistricting pair that a party just can't get worked out. (Last time, in 2002, it was a House race in Lee County between Democrats Phil Wise and Rick Larkin.)

Democrats Tom Hancock and Tod Bowman are paired in new Senate 29, but there are options. Bowman says he and Hancock are talking. Open new district 28, just to the north of Hancock's current seat, leans a little Republican and thus is less appealing. Bowman, just elected from old District 13, could move just a few miles closer to Flavor Flav's Fried Chicken into the open new Senate 49, the one odd Senate seat with no incumbent, and hold over. It's a bit less blue than the solidly Democratic new 29, but overlaps much of his old Clinton-based turf. Another "my district not my house" deal. Or if Hancock doesn't run, Bowman could stay put and hold over.

If Bowman does go south, Hancock could stay in new 29 and run for a two year term. Yes, it's odd-numbered, and yes, it would have one and only one incumbent senator, but Hancock was elected out of old district 16 in 2008. No one gets a six year term for free. It is, however, possible for a voter to go six years without seeing a state senator on the ballot, another argument for having the whole Senate run in remap years.

Quiet On The Vilsack Front

Quiet On The Vilsack Front

Now that The Map is a de facto reality (Craig Robinson at TheIowaRepublican has a must read with numbers), the chess pieces are in full motion and the kings and queens on the board are the five Congressional incumbents and Christie Vilsack. Six pieces, four squares.

A Bleeding Heartland diary making the case for Christie Vilsack primarying Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD is getting some national play, which is only natural; a primary challenge is an interesting story. I can write the lede now: "President Obama forced to choose between one of his key early Iowa supporters and the wife of a cabinet member..."

In response, Trish Nelson at Blog For Iowa argues that instead of running in the 2nd, Christie should take on Steve King in the 4th.

I think in the end, both are wrong. Let's start with the 2nd District.

A primary challenge needs a compelling rationale. "It's my turn" doesn't cut it. The incumbent needs to be an issue. The argument is the incumbent isn't doing the job, is damaged by scandal or personal shortcoming, or (as in Fallon-Boswell) isn't representing the base.

Dave Loebsack doesn't have any of these weaknesses - a little grumbling from the anti-war left, perhaps, but not enough to build a primary challenge around (compared to Leonard Boswell's actual vote for the war). And Christie Vilsack has no peace purist bona fides for the Hey Hey Ho Ho crowd.

Loebsack staked his claim on the 2nd District almost immediately, hours after the map's release, and started scheduling events in his new counties. And Vilsack, despite rumors or plants that she's been "calling around," has been silent in response. It's been apparent since about day two that this was The Map, and if she were serious would she give Loebsack a head start?

Vilsack's Plan A was probably a compact Des Moines metro district, the kind we all draw in our imaginary maps and the Legislative Service Agency never submits. So if Plan B was running from Mt. Pleasant, is Plan C Steve King?

Not a smart plan.

Look, I know King is the Republican that Democrats love to hate. But challenging King is a fool's errand. There's just that many Republicans in that corner of the state. The electorate has become polarized to the point where someone like a Berkley Bedell, who won that area in the 70s and 80s, could no longer get elected.

Sure, it would make us feel good to have someone out there bashing King every day. We need a candidate who is at least credible, just to protect the integrity of the party line and hold the straight ticket vote. Old-timers will remember the embarrassment of the, um, eccentric Jan Zonneveld on the Democratic ticket against Jim Leach in 1992, simply because no one else filed. It hurt every Democrat the rest of the way down the ballot.

Maybe it would marginally help Democratic turnout if we can fool enough people into thinking Vilsack or someone like her has a chance. But we don't. It would have to be done with the understanding that no, you are not actually going to Congress next year, you are doing this as a favor to the party and the President. (And its a favor that might even backfire, if it motivates King's base.)

Christie Vilsack has enough name ID and credibility that a strong but unsuccessful bid against Steve King doesn't help -- it instead counts as an L in her column.

So my unrealistic hope is still a voluntary Boswell retirement and a Christie Vilsack run in the 3rd District.

My beef with Boswell has always been that he calls himself a Blue Dog and that Des Moines doesn't need a Blue Dog to hold the seat. Boswell has improved a bit since 2006, in part because of the four years with a Democratic majority and in part because of that primary challenge from the left in 2008. But he still ranks below Braley and Loebsack on most independent measures.

And the very existence of the Blue Dogs damages the Democratic brand with young progressive voters, who are just starting to settle into voting patterns that tend to last a lifetime. Our real competition for these folks isn't Republicans, it's protest votes and it's the apathy of "they all suck." Boswell, with his good ole boy demeanor and his despicable "Nader Nader Nader," no-debate primary campaign against Ed Fallon, is exactly the wrong image for those voters.

It's hard to gauge Christie Vilsack's issue and voting potential since she has no record as an elected official. But I doubt she'd get on board the sinking ship of the Blue Dogs.

The other argument to make against Boswell is age. Paradoxically, that would have been a better argument a few years ago when Boswell had health problems and attendance issues which seem to be resolved. Age is an ugly argument, and not necessarily an effective one in an aging state like Iowa.

Leonard Boswell staked his claim even more than Loebsack did, and Iowa Democrats refuse to encourage him to step down. It looks like what we expected - a Boswell-Latham showdown, albeit on different turf than we thought. I see Tom Latham, busy making friends with Dallas County realtors, winning that one. So Christie Vilsack's smart move may be keeping her powder dry till 2014, for this race or another.

Bachmania! in Iowa City

Bachmania! in Iowa City

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann seemed to get the better of an exchange with some Iowa City lefty protesters this afternoon as she visited the People's Republic on the Family leader “Presidential Lecture” series. So Now we know why Bob Vader Plaats – my spell check wants to make it Vader which is too good to not use - is bringing Republican candidates to Iowa City: so they can look more reasonable in comparison?

Following: My usual UI campus, delayed first take look at the event.

---

A lack of plug-in electricity at the press riser and a dodgy battery has me isolated from the rest of the press, at the far left of the hall appropriately. Even my phone is dying. At least double the press presence as previous candidates or pseudo-candidates, at least 20.

Bachmann leads off with the press by discussing her “seven generation” Iowa bona fides. Seven generations... is that literally genealogically true, a Biblical dog whistle, or both? Twists the old book title into Everything I Needed To Know I Learned In Iowa, then says she moved to Minnesota when she was 12. You write the punch line.

Two of the five or six questions we get tie in on Romney and his exploratory announcement. Bachmann declines a direct bash but notes “I don't like to see anything other than free market health care.” She also likes unrestricted buying across state lines (the least common denominator policy to me) and "true malpractice reform.” She also redirects the invitation to attack a Republican and bashes Obama instead.

Two other questions key to the Paul Ryan budget proposal which she calls “an aspirational document, not legislation.” When asked what we should do to get serious about the deficit, she says “defund Obamacare” three or four times. That and waste. Calls Ryan proposal “the 55 and under plan” without saying “privatize Social Security.” (Note: Bachmann herself just turned 55.)

As for her budget vision: She wants “a family budget. The government needs less so families can have more.”

My intended question is about her vision: is there a place in it for the non-straight, the non-Christian, the non-wealthy? But with so many cameras and mikes, a blogger in a beret doesn't get a turn. I'm thinking of killing the hat off for just such reasons. Indeed, a young scruffy guy with a sign asks me if there are any protesters. Me, of course; another reason to bag the beret. I suggest keeping the sign on the down low and wish him luck. But that's not my approach. I just want to hear what they have to say.

We must be at 150 bodies at 5:26. A few Democratic interlopers, but most are polite types like me. The organizing types seem to be wise to protesters. Seems like Ron Paul had more people, but it may just have been the different room. Again, the press at least seems more interested in Bachmann.

BVP starts the show right on time. BVP is against raising debt ceiling, “that's just increasing the national credit card.” Brian Round from NOM is also in the house.

Bachmann intro cites Matthew 7: by their fruits shall ye know them.” And “she's made all the right enemies” (zero scores from NEA, ACLU, ADA, Human Rights Campaign, NARAL...) Keeps citing her “ten years” or legislative experience, counting both state legislature and US House, boosting her credentials with the unstated comparison to Obama. Oh, and she's never missed a congressional prayer meeting.

5:36 and she's on. Again with the Iowa bona fides, using the word “Iowegian,” only without the accent. (I just spent the weekend in my native Wisconsin and I catch myself lapsing into it after just two days' direct exposure.) Lengthy story about immigrant ancestors, with the “seven generations” again.

“We were reasonable fair minded Democrats in my family. It's not so much whether you're a Democrat or Republican, it's about your world view.” Just a hint of the accent on “cup of coffee today.” and “Winona State”

“I saw up close and personal how devastating hight taxes are. They destroy people's lives.” (So farmers ONLY lose farms due to taxes, NOT due to bad crops or bad economy?) “Nobody has a chance against this tax code, and we can afford a bureaucrat to spend his career interpreting a 14 word section of a 3.8 million word tax code.”

Family ran “a Christian counseling clinic.” This background is Important To The Story for the Right To Life (sic) people, in sort of the way that Trig Palin is. “It's not easy to run a business turn a profit and not have it go under.”

“Even if a life is less than perfect, they deserve protection (applause). And that's not to condemn abortion-minded women in a tough situation, but there's a chance of a far better outcome.” Abortion-minded women?

“We wanted to do more than talk the pro-life talk, we wanted to walk the walk.”

Marriage: “Marriage has been under attack for many years. History tells us that in all of human society, there is no culture, there is no nation... you don't see any other standard or definition of marriage other than between a man and a woman until about 12 years ago. That has been the norm. For 5000 years there has been a standard, and now you're deviating from that standard.”

Someone shouts, I can't tell what. Someone shouts again. Bachmann continues. “Social conservatism IS fiscal conservatism. You can't separate it.”

Now with the “three legged stool” she's mentioned on the stump: Uphold marriage, life and family. Strong vibrant economy. Strong national security. “It was a mistake for our president to get us involved in a third war in the Middle East.”

Another shout, the fifth or so. Bachmann responds: “if you'd like to ask a question later, I'd be more than happy to answer (applause drowms out some, ending with...) rules of decorum.” Back to Libya, seems her concern is Al-Qaida will take over post-Khadaffgffy. “They (Obama administration) don't know who's on first or what's on second.”

Mubarak “wasn't perfect but he was one of our few friends in the middle east, and where was Obama then? This is extremely destabilizing for the middle east. We could see a rise in democracy, but easily this could go the other way.”

Iran's goal “is to destroy Israel, and then to destroy the United States Of America.” Oh, and gas prices are Obama's fault. “We've been debasing the currency through the federal reserve.”

“You could be looking at 75% of your income being taken just for the tax burden.”

The Scruffy Guy With A Sign who talked to me earlier walks purposefully across back of the hall; heads turned. I'm told the sign says “I'm better at what I do because I'm gay.”

“The greatest threat to our national security is not Iran or Libya, it's our national debt.”

6:00 Q and A. They call on a protester, she asks, trying to squeeze it all in, about rape victims in war, assorted aspects of foreign policy and ending with “How much oil do you want?”

“I don't want the oil coming from the middle east, I want it coming from the United States. (applause)” “We are not seeing the progress we would like to see in Afghanistan” “In Iraq and Afghanistan we learned lessons that should have kept us out of Libya.” Thus playing her own disagreement with Obama, for opposite reasons, against the protesters.

“The US is the number one energy resource country in the world. This is great news. The problem is government policy.” Lists off many energy sources and many offshore locations, avoids term Drill Baby Drill. Lots of applause

BVP: “Emma from Mt Vernon followed the rules and wrote down a question” about illegal immigration. MB: “Enforce the laws on the books.” Shouting follows after she drops the name “Steve King.” Cites the Israeli Wall as a good example (!) “The way you do it is a double wall with about 100 feet in between for vehicles.” Step up enforcement “so that welfare benefits are not going to illegals.” Applause. “We have so many Hispanic Americans who are great citizens. I would encourage setting up chambers of commerce in any minority community where we haven't seen the same level of economic aspirations.” “They WILL learn to speak English” gets an applause interruption.

Varnum-Brien and DADT (the catch-all Gay question). “That decision belongs to the people of the state, it is not up to black robed masters. That is not the purpose of a court to impose their morality on all of us.” DADT was a policy the military was happy with, no “social engineering” in national security. “It worked and that's what we should stay with.”

Q & A cuts off early because she's going on Hannity. More shouting. She's out, crowd quickly starts to disperse.

I'll give her credit for taking on the protesters, even if she mostly just stayed on script; I have vivid memories of Palin just plowing ahead as if they weren't even there. Sorry for the too obvious comparisons to Palin, but it begs itself.

The take away: Someone has to emerge as the Not Mitt, and I give her a better chance than most. She fills the Palin Niche and the Huckabee Niche, without the Newt Baggage or the Pawlenty Boredom. Certainly a better chance than the next guy Vander Plaats has on deck: Rick Santorum on May 2nd.

Iowa Could Be First With Map

Iowa Could Be First With Map

The Legislature could vote on the redistricting map as soon as this Thursday. Swing State Project links to this Register piece and notes: "All signs point to passage, which would make Iowa the first state in the nation to complete its redistricting process."

The Register piece looks at several specific districts, including the Battle of the Dutchmen in the Pella-Osky pair:

Vander Linden and Van Engelenhoven are cousins. "That would literally be a family feud, so I don't know," Vander Linden said, referring to a primary battle. Some Republicans hope one would instead challenge Rielly for the Senate seat.

Many other specifics so check the whole thing out.

Last Redistricting Hearing Done

Last Redistricting Hearing Done

Only a dozen folks last night in Des Moines. Perennial candidate Jeremy Walters (R) complains, but since he's lost in about three different districts he should be OK.

Dennis Black has noted that his is one of the two Senate districts that's split between congressional districts (because 50 doesn't divide by four). I've found the other: the pair of Republican Merlin Bartz and Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm in District 26 on the Minnesota Border.

A WTF comment at the Cedar Rapids hearing:

Carmen Halverson of Cedar Falls and others had more local concerns about House and Senate districts having jagged boundaries that make it hard for voters and campaign workers to know which district they're located.

Halverson pointed to House District 62, near Raymond, as one example. She'd like a smoother, easier to understand boundary line.

"It looks as though it's a toothbrush," she said.

That's Deborah Berry's... looks to me like most of the lines are city limits and the Cedar River.

In Plymouth County, they're looking ahead to county redistricting:

Le Mars residents Ralph Klemme, representing the Republican party, and Dennis Wolf, the Democratic party, along with Supervisor Jack E. Guenthner will serve on the committee.

Again referring to "Plymouth County Democrat" in the singular, though this is a different one Democrat than they names last time.

And in that inadvertend argument for consolidating counties, double-size Kossuth, they appear to think McKinley Bailey got re-elected.

The Daily Mapper

The Daily Mapper

Yeah, I know there's a lot going on: the possible shutdown, the caucus date fight, the impending invaion of Michele Bachmann, winning in Wisconsin... but one of my journalistic mantras is "if you can't find the story you want to read, write it." And I want to read All Map All The Time.

Swing State Project has Best. Analogy. Ever.:

The situation here reminds me of gym class in middle school. Our stereotypically sadistic teacher would ask us if we wanted to play, say, basketball - and we had to either accept the choice right there, or decide to risk taking door #2, with no chance of going back. The alternative could be dodgeball (yes!)... or it could be running laps. Faced with the possibility of doing suicide drills (that is to say, a much worse second map from the commission), Republicans and Democrats alike seem ready to play a little b-ball instead.

Some grumbling at the Cedar Rapids public hearing about the Johnson-Linn split. As I've noted, historically those two were split from just after statehood till the 1991 map. And from my own archives, December 2008: "The last time Black Hawk and Linn counties were in the same congressional district was back when we had two districts-—at statehood."

Civic Skinny has the first localized Polk County look:

The map carves out a new Senate district that House Democrat Janet Peterson could win pretty easily, if she wanted it. Republican Pete Cownie, who keeps his safe House seat, is hemmed in a bit because the newly redrawn senate district where he lives would be hard for him to win.

It’s notable that while statewide there are 13 new districts that would pit incumbents against one another — nine where Republicans would face one another, three with Democrat against Democrat and one where an incumbent Democrat would face an incumbent Republican — no Polk County House members would face one another. In that sense, all members of the entire Polk County House delegation are winners.

That's what population gain gets you.

On Radio Iowa, Grassley advises Grassley:

“Pat’s gotta’ make up his mind what he wants to do,” Grassley says. “I always advise people that if you would like to stay in politics, you oughta’ take on any challenges that come to you. You’ve gotta’ be the right person at the right time at the right place and if you leave politics, it’s a little harder to get back in.”

Under the proposed new legislative maps, Pat Grassley would be in the same district with Representative Annette Sweeney, a Republican from Alden. The elder Grassley says his grandson will make the choice that’s best for himself and his family. “He is pondering whether or not he ought to go into a primary but I believe that he’s determined to do it, based on his own judgment, not mine,” Grassley says. “I just give peripheral advice.”

At the Ottumwa legislative forum last weekend, the talking was mostly unofficial (what I call "beret off").

A crowd gathered around the map, and before and after the forum, the hottest topic seemed to be the change in Iowa’s political districts. During the forum itself, it never came up.

Instead, the four lawmakers — two Republicans and two Democrats — talked about the approaching end of the legislative session during the forum, hosted by the Ottumwa Area Chamber of Commerce and the Ottumwa chapter of the League of Women Voters.

Sen. Sandra Greiner, R-Keota, said because of an unusual situation in Des Moines, there are some things the four speakers wouldn’t have control over.

“There isn’t one of us on this panel who is in the majority in their chamber,” she said.

Brief mention in Fayette of the two Dem Andrew Wenthe-Roger Thomas pair. And in Spencer, Senate Dem Jack Kibbie is down on his own chances.

Pawlenty was Born This Way

Are they just Born This Way?

Hip is not something you can fake. You either have it or you don't. And trying to fake it and failing is simply pitiful.

Thus we saw Tim Pawlenty last weekend at the Iowa College Republicans, awkwardly dropping the pop culture references his staffers fed him: “If this was a Lady Gaga song, the relationship between the youth vote and Barack Obama would be ‘Bad Romance.’”

"I'm a free bitch, baby," responded Sarah Palin via Twitter.*

C'mon, TPaw. You REALLY wanna go there? Have you ever actually LISTENED to Lady Gaga? Like that hit that just wrapped up six weeks at number one:

Don't be a drag, just be a queen
Whether you're broke or evergreen
You're black, white, beige, chola descent
You're lebanese, you're orient
Whether life's disabilities
Left you outcast, bullied, or teased
Rejoice and love yourself today
'Cause baby you were born this way
No matter gay, straight, or bi,
Lesbian, transgendered life
I'm on the right track baby
I was born to survive

Not exactly the artist you want to be invoking in an Iowa Republican caucus without clearing it with Bob Vander Plaats first. You need more born again, less "Born This Way."

The guy who gets this is Mike Huckabee. The way a Republican candidate needs to deal with pop culture is the full Murphy Brown:

One of the things that's troubling is that people see a Natalie Portman or some other Hollywood starlet who boasts of, 'Hey look, you know, we're having children, we're not married, but we're having these children, and they're doing just fine.' But there aren't really a lot of single moms out there who are making millions of dollars every year for being in a movie.

Straight from the Dan Quayle script.

Preachy? Sure. Preaching to the base. The people you need to get to a Republican caucus either doesn't know who Lady Gaga is, knows her only as "the crazy lady in the meat dress," or if they DO know anything about her through accidental osmosis from their teenagers, they're offended. (Her next single, due out April 19, is titled "Judas.")

The only good thing for Pawlenty is that the reference doesn't seem to have come to Lady Gaga's attention. You don't want to piss off a woman who speaks her mind and has nine million Twitter followers. (Obama's only got seven million. You, TPaw, have 29,000.)

Still, it's not the worst thing that's happened to TPaw in Iowa this week. And it's not the most pitiful attempt by a Republican candidate to look cool:



But Mitt can't help it. He was born this way. **

* for the unhip: that's a lyrical reference.

** for the unhip: that's a lyrical reference.

Map Day 7: No Screaming

Map Day 7: No Screaming

Get to know it, learn to love it. Mike Glover:

Key legislative leaders from both parties said Tuesday that they were leaning toward approval of the first plan to redraw Iowa's congressional and legislative districts.

House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, D-Des Moines, told The Associated Press that the map put together by nonpartisan legislative staffers hasn't garnered strong opposition from lawmakers.

Paulsen also said that since the maps were unveiled last week, there has been no organized opposition, and McCarthy said he hasn't heard from any Democrats strongly opposed to the plan.

While neither Paulsen nor McCarthy announced a final decision, their support gives the proposed map a giant boost.

Second public hearing, in Bettendorf, was extremely low key:

Only about 30 people attended a meeting Tuesday night to discuss Iowa's redistricting plan, and some who did concluded the low turnout was a sign the proposed maps are relatively popular.

"Look around the room," Art Heyderman said. "They're not here. They're not angry. Happy people stay home."

Indeed, the biggest complaint anyone could muster was that the St. Ambrose campus is split between legislative districts. Not exactly a deal-breaker.

Another sign of acceptance: At semi-official house organ TheIowaRepublican, Craig Robinson does serious number crunching of party reg in the new districts. Doesn't share the raw data, but a lot of interesting examples for any political numbers geek, which if you're reading me, you are.

The Sweeney-Grassley Problem

The Sweeney-Grassley Problem

Kevin Hall at TheIowaRepublican:

I’m hearing the first set of redistricting plans is likely to pass, despite pitting several incumbent Republicans against each other. I would be stunned if there is a Latham vs. King primary. Most of the matchups will work themselves out, through retirements, moves, or rock, paper, scissors. The most difficult one? Annette Sweeney vs. Pat Grassley in the House. In the Senate, I’m curious to see what happens between Jim Seymour and Nancy Boettger. All great people and great legislators (sic). It would be a shame to lose any of them (sic).

Bleeding Heartland has more on last night's Council Bluffs hearing. Note: "We want to be in Steve King's (or whoever's) district" is EXACTLY the kind of thing the Iowa process is designed to NOT consider.

A new catch from Saturday's Muscatine legislative forum: Senator Jim Hahn is a no vote. Is it because he gets paired with fellow Republican Shawn Hamerlinck (Davenport), or because he loses his piece of Johnson County? I'm thinking Jim luuuuuuvs the People's Republic and just hates losing the Scott Boulevard trailer courts. [/snark]

More local roundups: Independence, Toledo, Knoxville, Boone and Estherville.

Another Day, AnotherMap Roundup

Another Day, Another Map Roundup

First public hearing last night in Council Bluffs, with some grumbling from PottCo GOP. tl;dr version: we want to be in King's district. Other complaints: The Central Iowa Coalition Conspiracy. (At this point in 2001 Map One the phrase was "urban-rural mix.") Quote of the night: “If Mike Gronstal is in favor of this, that’s all I need to know. I cannot support this.”

But that's 30 party activists who went to a meeting. What's REALLY happening? Politico:

But privately, some top Republican officials say legislators are increasingly heading toward a grudging acceptance of the congressional plan because they don’t want to roll the dice on a plan that could end up with much less favorable state legislative district maps.

Also talk in the Politico article of Christie Vilsack running in the 4th.

And yesterday afternoon, a fundraising email from Gronstal began with this very presumptive sentence: "Late last week, the new map of Iowa legislative districts was made public, and with that, the 2012 Election Cycle is underway."

Some local stories from mid-sized papers: The Marshalltown Times-Republican mentions that Lance Horbach is retiring and the Sweeney-Grassley pair. So many papers have "Democrat" or "Republican" in their name, a holdover from the old days of the partisan press that I firmly believe will return as journalism moves from an advertiser supported model to an interest group supported model. [/tangent]

Also checking in: Carroll, Ft. Dodge (Tjepkes predicting passage, Beall predicting failure), Newton (Black noting that his is one of the two Senate districts split between congressional districts because 50/4 = 12 1/2) and Denison. Wednesday and Thursday tend to be publication days for the small town weeklies, and I'll be matching for those to see how some of those rural pairs shake out.

Bachmann hires Wes Enos

Bachmann hires Wes Enos

Via Minnesota Public Radio:

Rep. Michele Bachmann's political action committee has hired Wes Enos, the Iowa political director for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee when he ran for president in 2008.

Bachmann chief of staff Andy Parrish confirmed Enos will serve as a consultant to Bachmann's MichelePAC. Bachmann is weighing a bid for the 2012 GOP nomination. She has made numerous visits to early nominating states.

Enos, of Bondurant, IA, helped Huckabee win Iowa's precinct caucuses. Referencing the Enos hire, Parrish told MPR News, "The more money we raise, the more help we need."

Enos also worked for Team Teahen in the 2008 GOP primary, and lost a 2010 state senate primary as a candidate.

Hat tip to Political Wire, which has the headline Another Sign Huckabee Isn't Running?

linux monday

Linux Monday

Four days in a row of maps... time for something different.

it's a month starting in 4 and that means new Ubuntu... and goodbye to Karmic Koala.
You come and go, you come and go.

But the beta versions of the new Ubuntu, Natty Narwhal, is getting some negative reviews, in large part due to a change in the default desktop interface from old standby Gnome to a new desktop, Unity.

Translation for Windows users: You know when you get locked up and have to use Task Manager, and you see that program called Explorer that you think is Internet Explorer, and you cancel out of it and then see nothing but a blank desktop? Well, Explorer is the Windows desktop interface, the program that lets you do everything else in a GUI. And by the I mean only. Linux has options, and that's what we geeks are fighting about in this Unity vs. Gnome thing.

Another translation for Windows users: One of the first things you hear in Linux, usually when you ask "hey, where are my drive letters?" is "everything's a file." Here's an explanation of how that works and how your system sees the different types of "files."

Here's a way to download ISO (disk image) files directly to a CD, DVD or BLU-RAY. Tangent: Just saw an ad for a recent Disney film available for download, on video on demand, or Blu-Ray. First time I'd noticed no mention of DVD. (I'm now picking those up for about two bucks each at junk stores.)

Of course, the going price for media in the 21st century is free, as we note under the headline Did file-sharing cause recording industry collapse? (tl;dr version: No.)

The Map: Day 4

The Map: Day 4

Had so much fun with the linkfest yesterday that I went looking for more.

A first good look at the specifics in Linn County that quotes much of the delegation. An important specific: The Speaker is satisfied with his turf.

Paulsen would be in a more compact district, including part of Marion, Robins, Hiawatha and Bowman Woods. Based on voters registration, he said, it might be a better district for him.

Also mentions the pair in Johnson:

Democratic Reps. Mary Mascher of Iowa City and Dave Jacoby of Coralville would be in the same district.

Jacoby believes he’ll fare well in his more compact district in Coralville where he served as a city councilman before being elected to the Legislature.

Mascher, in her ninth term, isn’t sweating the new boundaries. Much of her current district is in a newly created open district in Johnson County. Mascher stopped short of saying she will move.

And here's the guy who gets pulled all the way out of Johnson County:

Rep. Nate Willems, D-Lisbon, will see a big change if the first plan is accepted. He would be in a district stretching from southeast Linn County into southeast Buchanan County. He would pick up much of the territory that has elected and re-elected Republicans Paulsen and Wagner.

Willems noted his current district is made up of several small towns, the largest just 4,000 people.

“I don’t see the new district being much different than that,” he said. “I’m very comfortable with that.”

Worth a mention: For the first time ever, Marion is so big it has to be split.

More analysis from Siouxland: Bret Hayworth looks at the pair between two freshmen, Democrat Chris Hall and Republican Jeremy Taylor. There's an open seat next door in 14 that Hayworth says is D-leaning, yet he refers to Taylor as the loser here.

Hayworth also looks at the District 3 two Republican pair of Royd Chambers and Dan Huseman.

Also in the northwest the Le Mars Daily Sentinel has the Plymouth County perspective:

Currently much of the county is in Senate District 2, which includes Lyon and most of Sioux. Randy Feenstra, a Republican from Hull, is the District 2 senator.

The new Senate District 3 would include most of Plymouth County -- including all towns in the county -- and the northwest half of Woodbury County, excluding much of Sioux City and the very northwest corner.

"It means we'd have a new senator," said Jon Neunaber, Plymouth County Democratic chairman. "We won't have Feenstra any more. We might have Bill Anderson."

The important part of the story is that they found a Democrat in Plymouth County.

In Ames, Lisa Heddens is technically in House 48, but really in 46; the article misses the fact that 46 is empty.

A look at Ottumwa, which is roughly district-size so not much change for Dem Mary Gaskill. But nearby in tulip country, "Much of the area now represented by Jim Van Engelenhoven would fall in a different District. This realignment places Van Engelenhoven in the same district as Representative Guy Vander Linden, a Republican from Oskaloosa." Van Engelenhoven moved in 2001.

KTVO mentions the two C/Kurt pair of Democrats Swaim of Bloomfield and Hanson of the significantly larger Fairfield. Swaim alienated some dems by joining Republicans on the marriage equality vote, while Hanson fought off a full court press on that issue AND made friends across the whole state during the 2009 special election campaign.

Empty House 80, based in Appanoose and Monroe Counties, lies next to three paired districts: Swaim-Hanson, Klein-DeBoef, and VanEngelenhoeven-Vander Linden. It comes up to the Osky and Ottumwa city limits. Does Vander Linden move? (That could also be a Plan B for Betty DeBoef but I'd peg Backwards Button Betty as a more likely retirement.) It would also be a nice place for any member of the Judge family.

Or is the Pella-Osky pair the GOP equivalent of the Keokuk-Ft. Madison pair of 2002, which led to the only two incumbent primary in the state? Keokuk's Phil Wise narrowly prevailed over Ft. Madison's Rick Larkin.

And that's what people forget in these stories, with their hypothetical primaries and general election pairings. 2001 saw 25 senators and 39 reps paired, and in the end there was ONE two-Dem primary in the House and TWO Democrat vs. Republican matchups in the Senate. That's IT. A district is kind of an artificial construct anyway. Senator Amanda Ragan puts it well in a Mason City article: "North Iowa is North Iowa, and I think most of our legislators will tell you that."

The Map: Better The Devil You Know

The Map: Better The Devil You Know?



Piecing together the clues, it's starting to feel like this is going to be The Map. No one is standing up and screaming. Instead, they're figuring out who goes where.

The smoking gun comes from this AP article:

House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, was tossed into a district with two other Republicans lawmakers, but still had kind things to say about the map. She said going through multi-maps would complicate the process.

One clear sign of momentum is that many lawmakers tossed together with other incumbents are beginning to reach accommodation. In Upmeyer's case, one of the potential rivals is retiring and the other laying plans to run for the senate.

The names aren't named but that'd be Henry Rayhons stepping down and Stu Iverson for open Senate District 4. This particular district, House 8, was the one that was supposed to be the deal breaker circa Thursday afternoon.

Here's another one:

Sen. Pat Ward, R-West Des Moines, said she would be willing to sell her house and move elsewhere in the western suburbs if the map were approved. Thursday's map would put Ward with Sen. Matt McCoy, D-Des Moines, in a Democrat-leaning district.

So 48 hours in the plans are starting to go public. But how many of the moves are across the suburban street and how many are century farms?

Two of the Republican incumbents pitted against each other would be Sen. Nancy Boettger, R-Harlan, and Sen. James Seymour, R-Woodbine. Boettger said Friday there’s no way she’d move. “I live on a farm,” she explained.

As you may recall, Seymour got zinged late in the 2008 cycle for a 2002 arrest for soliciting prostitution, and was really lucky to be unopposed. So Boettger gets this one.

Other specifics:

One example of an oddly shaped district involves Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck, whose proposed district barely juts out enough to capture his home and forces him to challenge fellow Republican Sen. James Hahn of Muscatine.

Hamerlinck currently has the only U-shaped district in the state, so he figured the shape would change. But he'd lose two-thirds of his district under Thursday's plan.

"I'm not going to move. I'm not going to build a hut. I'm not going to pitch a tent. I'm going to live with my wife and family," Hamerlinck said.

Prediction here: Hahn retires.

Elsewhere in the Quad Cities area:

Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, was placed in the newly drawn 49th District with Sen. Tom Hancock, D-Dubuque. That leaves a district that includes most of Clinton County, including the city of Clinton, and part of Scott County, including Princeton and LeClaire, without a state senator.

Bowman says he and Hancock will "discuss the situation" if the map passes. Translation: Someone moves.

In Black Hawk County:

The district lines generally shifted east. Rogers and Danielson would see their districts expand into Waterloo. Reps. Bob Kressig, D-Cedar Falls, and Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo, would have their districts become almost entirely urban.

Rep. Anesa Kajtazovic, D-Waterloo, and Sen. Bill Dotzler, D-Waterloo, would also take on more of the rural area of the county and smaller towns like La Porte City, Washburn and Gilbertville.

"It doesn't really change anything for me," said Kajtazovic, a first-term legislator.

Siouxland:

Two Sioux City state lawmakers said Thursday a proposed redistricting plan that pits them against one another in the next election is worth considering.

Rep. Jeremy Taylor, a Republican, and Rep. Chris Hall, a Democrat, would be placed in a new House District 13. Both were elected last November, Taylor in District 1 and Hall in District 2.

14 is empty. Someone moves; not knowing my Woodbury precincts I don't know which one.

Here's a bit of bad news:

"I'm happy with my district," said Sen. Kent Sorenson, R-Indianola. "It didn't change."

In Council Bluffs:

However, there will be a new representative if the map becomes official, according to Rep. Mary Ann Hanusa, who represents District 99 in the city. That’s because her district is being joined with the area now served by District 100 Rep. Mark Brandenburg. The new districts would also have new numbers.

Brandenburg’s district, District 15 under the new plan, which currently serves Carter Lake and the western portion of Council Bluffs would expand eastward into the area Hanusa now serves, she said. The new district called for by the proposal, District 16, would start at Harrison Street on the west, continue eastward to Iowa Western Community College and cover the Lake Manawa area on the south.

Hanusa has been known to be, er, flexible about her residence in the past, and ran statewide in 2006 as the last-minute replacement candidate for Secretary of State. And Brandenburg was Mike Gronstal's opponent in 2008. So someone moves or someone runs against the GOP's number one target. (The lines impact Gronstal little; Council Bluffs is like Iowa City, very close to the size of a Senate district.)

There's also the possibility of crossing the rotunda in the opposite direction. Senators have been known to run for open House seats, the way Sandy Greiner did in 2002 when she got tripled up with fellow Republican Dave Miller and Democrat Mark Shearer. Eight years later she would up in the seat anyway.

Burlington Hawkeye sums up the southeast corner nicely: "The proposed state districts would shift slightly but would not dramatically alter the current districts, other than the numbers. Each would see a few precincts lost and a few gained." Click through if you like details. You know you do.

Not much to see in Ames. That covers most of the major metros; couldn't find much on Linn and Dubuque.

What's harder to figure out is the rural dynamic in the land of the small town weeklies. Just looking a county or two away: Greiner protege Jarad Klein has the geographic and political advantage over Betty DeBoef, who moved into the district in 2001 to begin with; she could run in the vacant House 80 or step down.

House Democratic leader Kevin McCarthy: "It seems kind of a wash, with good and bad on both sides."

Republican Senate leader Paul McKinley weighs in,

Iowa’s process is fair and provides the public with a great opportunity to have their say.

Some may even argue that our once-a-decade redistricting is as close as we come to having term limits. Whichever new map will likely mean some lawmakers will retire, some lawmakers will be defeated by the opposing party and some will even face primaries within their own party.

Yet, all of that can be a healthy thing. Sometimes new districts can mean the election of new people which will yield new ideas. That can be something to celebrate.

When you're using base-popular words like "term limits", you're serious about this map. That's the glass half full way of looking it it. Upmeyer looks at the glass half empty and says: "The next map might be something less desirable."

Which puts Upmeyer on the same page as Mike Gronstal: "My caution is if they have concerns it behooves everybody to take a cold, hard look. The second map may not be as good."

And, from the press corps, Kathie Obradovich:

We’re not far enough into the spin cycle to be able to say for sure, but I didn’t hear anything from legislative leaders Thursday that sounded like the first map was doomed. Gronstal opted for a “Deal or No Deal” analogy, noting that either chamber or the governor could say “no deal.” But the next map could be far worse.

The Map: The Next Day

The Map: The Next Day

The legislators are home for the weekend, presumably deciding whether to keep this hand or draw more cards. While we wait:

Lengthy discussion at Swing State Project of the implications.

Smart Politics looks at history. Assuming there's a Latham-King primary (which there won't) it'd be only the second two GOP incumbent primary in state history. Lots of other history in there as well.

Yesterday's unsung heroes: Iowa Democratic Party staff. Most of the media relied on the list IDP prepped of who got paired and which districts were open. We always appreciate when someone does our work for us, and there was some acknowledgment.

The list itself is embedded in this Register article. Look closer and see the time stamp.

8:27 a.m. Twelve minutes after the map was released. And no, they DON'T get it in advance. Some of that twelve minutes was just plain downloading data.

That's not twelve minutes of work. That's hours and hours and hours of programming and prep and testing, the kind of geek work that no one notices unless there's an awful mistake. That's an excellent job by Sue Dvorsky and her staff. And, combined with the 24 hours and counting official silence from the GOP, that's a good sign of how much better organized the Democrats are for this.

In other news, Wisconsin Democrats have filed the first recall petition against Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse). That's my parent's district and yes, Mom signed. Dad wasn't home but we'll catch him on election day.

Loebsack Would Move

Map Day 2: The After-Map
Loebsack would move

Everyone missing the lede here (emphasis added):

Dave Loebsack, Mount Vernon Democrat

“In Iowa, we are fortunate to have a nonpartisan redistricting process that puts Iowans and Iowa’s communities first, ahead of politics. For more than four years, I have been honored to represent much of southeastern Iowa – in Iowa’s Second Congressional district. Understanding that the redistricting process is ongoing, as the map stands now, I would plan to continue to represent the southeastern district of Iowa that stretches from I-35 to Iowa City, the Quad Cities and to the southeastern most tip of Keokuk. I have been honored to represent these communities in the past and look forward to representing them in the future.”

Makes sense. It's basically the same district he had except swapping Scott and Linn. Mt. Vernon is just a couple miles north of the county line.

Article now includes Steve King as well; everyone except Loebsack is content-free.

Meanwhile under the dome they're still taking it all in. And Craig Robinson is up with a Winners and Losers list. My guess is that House GOP leadership is microscoping the map and figuring out who can move and who can't. And like I said before, there's a lot less pairs than we had in the 2001 map. Of course, that year there was a whole slate of statewide offices and an open deep-red congressional district, so a lot of folks took their chances on up or out.

As they say, developing...

Map Day

Map Day!

Well, here they are: statewide and local insets.

"Look at all these straight lines," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, weeping. "And what kind of a ^&$&!@# puts together TWO pairs of congressmen?"

"The guy who's screwed is Tom Latham," said Mandering. "He's got nowhere to move and King clobbers him in the primary with this 4th District."

Democrats were quick with a release best summed up as: our process is fair and Democrats are good. Republicans hit an hour or so later with a release on the also important but unrelated subject of Florida's primary leapfrogging the caucuses. Comments at TheIowaRepublican seem grouchy, but no pseudo-official analysis yet.

As of 11:00 we have statements from Boswell, Latham and Braley, none of which say much; nothing from Loebsack or King.

Key question: Will there be national pressure on Iowa Republicans to scuttle this map and take care of Latham, Speaker Boehner's buddy?

CDs 1 and 2 closely resemble Braley and Loebsack's current turf, with the notable trade of Scott and Linn. O. Kay says what many are thinking: "Loebsack could move into Johnson County."

Leonard Boswell gets a 3rd CD that closely resembles the Neal Smith-Greg Ganske turf of the 1990s. "It's not a good map for him," says desmoinesdem.

The Register has full list of legislative pairs. Much is being made of the high number of pairs, bit it's actually less than in 2001. Plus: I don't know the rest of the state to how many of those are you're screwed pairs vs. how many of those are "my district just not my house."

Local angle: Lisbon Democrat Nate Willems gets pulled all the way out of Johnson, with that congressional district line, and gets sent in a completely opposite direction to north rural Linn and all the way into Buchanan County.

There's an open district 77 running down the west side of the county and catching Swisher-Shueyville, North Liberty, Tiffin, Oxford, and Lone Tree, but skipping Hills. They drew the line along the old Hills Panhandle of the railroad tracks, which Hills de-annexed in 2010. "Now THAT's how you draw districts!" said Mandering.

This House seat combines with a Washington-Keokuk House district 78 to make up Republican Sandy Greiner's Senate district 39. Freshman Republican Jarad Klein gets pulled all the way out of Johnson and gets paired with fellow Republican Betty DeBoef. She first got elected in 2000, got paired in 2001, and moved in 2002.

Coralville's Dave Jacoby loses North Liberty and picks up one more west side Iowa City precinct in district 74, Iowa City 9, which happens to be where Mary Mascher lives. The rest of Iowa City basically is split along Highway 6, Burlington Street and Muscatine Avenue (with a jog down to catch student apartment precinct 19). Vicki Lensing is north of the line in 85; the open district 86 on the south side closely resembles Mascher's present turf and her 1990s district, except for that panhandle that picks up Hills (which is so solidly Democratic even I won it). The campus area, which was concentrated in Mascher's old district, not gets split between the two Iowa City districts.

Joe Bolkcom basically keeps what he had in Senate 43 (House 85 and 86), losing precinct 9 and gaining Hills. He may be the least impacted person in the state.

On the east side of the county, Republican Jeff Kaufmann, who lives north of the city of Wilton in rural Cedar County, picks up a bigger chunk of the county, including Solon. District 74 loses most of the northern tier of Muscatine County, except for the deep red city of Wilton itself. Democrats have made serious runs at the Cedar County seat in the past but always fallen short, and basically gave up the last two cycles.

I expected Bob Dvorsky to be pulled all the way into Johnson County, but instead he goes east, getting the Coralville-based 73 and the Cedar County 74 seat in Senate 37. I'd that's about a 60% Johnson district and he'll be all right. Jim Hahn gets pulled all the way out of Johnson County, but he only had two precincts here anyway.

Johnson County in general is less carved up. In the 2000s we had 3.8 House districts worth of population, and we got three whole house districts with the .8 sent in three different directions. This cycle we had about 4.3 House districts worth of people. We got the four whole House districts, and the .3 all gets sent over to Kaufmann. The surprise is that we then didn't get two whole Senate districts. Still, on the Senate side we're only split three ways instead of four.

That is, if this flies. Closing in on noon now and the Republican Party is still vewy, vewy quiet.

Maps While U Wait

Maps While U Wait

Tomorrow of course is all about maps and while these aren't the ones you want they're at least a little political cartography.



This one illustrates the percentage of folks self-identifying as "conservative" (vs. "moderate" and "liberal") in a Gallup survey. It very closely overlays the Obama-McCain map with a couple minor variations. Two moderate states went for McCain, Montana and his own Arizona.

But the glaring exception is Iowa. How come? Well, reading down the crosstabs it seems there's almost an inverse relationship between income and conservatism. It's what the Brits would call "working class Tories" and what Americans would call the Larry the Cable Guy demographic. This tells me self-ID as conservatism is social issue driven. A handy tool for an economic ruling class to have.

The good news is that the lighter colored states still add up to an electoral college majority.



This one comes under the catchy headline "Haley Barbour Comes Out Against Slavery." Although, seriously, the sitting GOP governor of Missi-freakin-sippi saying this is kind of a Big Deal:

“Slavery was the primary, central, cause of secession,” Barbour told me Friday. “The Civil War was necessary to bring about the abolition of slavery,” he continued. “Abolishing slavery was morally imperative and necessary, and it’s regrettable that it took the Civil War to do it. But it did.”

Remember, this is the only state that STILL has a Confederate flag in its state flag.

Anyway, the map argues that Henry Clay won the election of 1844, we never had a Civil War, and we got three new countries out of the deal: California, Texas, and Utah I mean Deseret.

As for THE map, look for me and Jerry Mandering to check in on that roughly noon tomorrow.

McCaskill backs Christie Vilsack

McCaskill backs Christie Vilsack

Some people think this is a bad thing. I think this is a good thing:

Sen. Claire McCaskill allowed for a moment of politics at Monday's St. Louis event with the nation's farming chief, offering a word of encouragement for U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilasck after a joint appearance on the riverfront.

Only it wasn't Vilsack that McCaskill was extending her support to -- it was his wife.

Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of the Corn State, has been edging toward running for office herself, contemplating a run for Congress.

"Tell Christie I think it's a great idea," McCaskill said to Tom Vilsack after a press conference at the ADM grain elevator in St. Louis. "Tell her I'll come up and knock on some doors!"

But even the Show Me Staters can sense the tension:

The Vilsacks are popular among fellow Democrats around the U.S. -- they know the caucus political landscape as well as anyone -- but running a primary campaign against an incumbent is a delicate subject, if not a faux pas.

The article alludes to McCaskill's own primary challenge history: she knocked off an incumbent governor in a 2004 primary, only to lose in the general (thanks in large part to the John Kerry campaign scuttling Missouri late in the game).

McCaskill came back to beat Jim "No" Talent in 2006's Senate race. With a tough re-election race next year, it's unlikely we'll actually see her door knocking Des Moines, but the thought is nice.

Republican Candidates or Invasive Species?

They’re swarming… and it’s scarier than fiction

"In the context of jellyfish swarms, the word is a very serious indicator of the health of the ocean. It means that ecosystems are way out of balance. The predators that normally feed on jellyfish are declining due to overfishing, which allows jellyfish species to quickly proliferate. Predators of jellyfish are reduced as are fish species that normally compete with jellyfish for food such as phyto- and zooplankton.

Now, they’re terrorizing tourists and beachgoers as they appear en mass near beaches where they were once rare."
- MarineBioBlog

Call it global warming, call it the great extinction of overfishing and habitat destruction. But our waters are getting clogged with invasive lower forms of life: jellyfish, zebra mussels, and slime molds.

Much the same could be said of the Republican presidential field. It just keeps getting bigger, weirder, and more primitive, and it's invading our habitat.

Jim DeMint, de facto Senate Republican leader, says he thinks even more people could get in, a tacit admission that the present field consists of low forms of life. But how much more can we de-evolve? Just in the last few days we've had the Trump Boomlet (I liked it the first time I heard it, in 1986 when it was Lee Iacocca) Roy "Ten Commandments Judge" Moore, and former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson running on the Peter Tosh platform.

Oxygen-depleting pollution in coastal waters is a problem for most marine species that cannot survive in “dead zones.” Jellyfish, often referred to as the cockroaches of the sea, have no problem living in oxygen-depleted waters.

Such as the Ames straw poll. But once population densities get too thick, jellyfish are known to cannibalize each other. As are candidates.

A species is regarded as invasive if it has been introduced by human action to a location, area, or region where it did not previously occur naturally (i.e., is not a native species), becomes capable of establishing a breeding population in the new location without further intervention by humans, and becomes a pest in the new location, directly threatening agriculture or the local biodiversity.

When an invasive species super-saturates its niche, overpopulating the environment and sucking up all the resources, it starts dying off, a victim of its own fertility.

Thus shall it be with the Republican presidential field. We will not see all these creatures by the time caucus night rolls around. Some, I believe, are already extinct - does anyone really think Bobby Jindal is still looking at it? - and others inhabit the same ecological home (Rand Paul says he won't run if his dad does.)

The ever-objective Ron Gunzburger of Politics1 has 24 "major" Republican candidates or potential candidates listed. Let's make that 25 as Fred "Gay Republican" Karger had made a bit of noise here. Even though most of the candidates will say they don't believe in evolution, I'm going to rate the field on an evolutionary scale, higher forms of life to lower, based on degree of environmental threat. Any similarities between species and candidate are strictly coincidental, says our legal staff.

• Nomura's Jellyfish (エチゼンクラゲ,Nemopilema nomurai) or Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Know for two distinct life history stages (body forms) during its life cycle.
• Flavivirus (West Nile virus) or Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; both boast of frequent appearances in Middle East
• Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) or Governor Mitch Daniels (Indiana)
• Sus scrofa (Wild boar) or Governor Haley Barbour (Mississippi)
• Caulerpa taxifolia (killer algae) or US Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) or Congressman Ron Paul (Texas)
• Felis catus (stray cat) or Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Georgia). Population growing due to habit of mating with multiple partners.
• Channa argus (Northern snakehead) or Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)
• Dioscorea bulbifera (air potato) or Former Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska)
• Agrilus planipennis (emerald ash borer) or Former Governor Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota). Able to bore even the sturdiest trees.
• Bufo marinus (Cane toad) or Businessman Herman Cain (Georgia)
• Rattus rattus (Black rat) or Former Governor/Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (Utah) (though new reports are this species may not be seen in Iowa)
• Paederia foetida (skunk vine) or Former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (Alabama)
• Cynanchum rossicum (dog-strangling vine) or Businessman/TV Show Host Donald Trump (New York)
• Panicum repens (torpedo grass) or Former Governor Gary Johnson (New Mexico)
• Didymosphenia geminata (rock snot) or Former US Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)
• Pueraria_lobata (kudzu) or Former Governor Buddy Roemer (Louisiana)
• Conium maculatum (poison hemlock) or activist Fred Karger
• Ophiostoma ulmi (Dutch elm disease) or would-be kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats (Iowa)
• Sturnus vulgaris (European starling) or Former UN Ambassador John Bolton (Maryland)
• Monopterus albus (swamp eel) or Governor Bobby Jindal (Louisiana)
• Petromyzon marinus (Sea lamprey) or Former Congressman Joe Scarborough (Florida)
• Coptotermes formosanus (Formosan subterranean termite) or Former Governor George Pataki (New York). Believed extinct.
• Phakopsora spp. (Soybean rust) or Governor Rick Perry (Texas)
• Phytophthora ramorum (Sudden oak death) or Former Governor Bob Riley (Alabama)
• Carnivorous slobbius (Common coyote) or Super Genius Wile E. Coyote (New Mexico)
• Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (Bighead carp) or Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (New York)

I don't expect any of the species that rank below Vander Plaats on the evolutionary scale to grow into actual campaigns; they're listed for taxonomic purposes only. All these species are likely to become extinct by November 2012.