Senate District 38
Registration: D 10963, R 12549, N 16512, total 40051, R +1586
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone
Clean,
easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three
whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman
Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa then went west
and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is
still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home
county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney
retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that
county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines
give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500
registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which
means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
Democrat Shelley Parbs of Urbana easily won a three way primary with 58%, with Nick Volk at 23% and LaForest Sherman at 18.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Kapucian for State Senate, Parbs for IA Senate
Clearly this one is high on the target list for both sides. Kapucian
has the cash on hand lead with $41,258.67, and raised $11,525 in the
post-primary filing period, $5800 from various PACs. But Parbs leads in
recent fundraising with $16,305, including $12,450 from mainly labor
PACs. My bet is a lot of that was deferred till after the primary. She
has $15,041.61 in the bank.
House District 75
Registration: D 5469, R 5986, N 8591, total 20058, R +517
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Grudge
match: Pettingill irked Democrats when she was one, defecting on key
votes. Then on the last day of the 2007 session she defected all the way
across the aisle to the other party. But she won with 55% in 2008, down
just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then
went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting
failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh
of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings,
are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the
turf is familiar, as Pettengill keeps her entire old district. This is
kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85%
of an ideal House District and the county stays whole; the piece of
Iowa County grows by a township.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Pettengill for Iowans, Cronbaugh for House
Cronvaugh raised just over %5000 in the post-primary period and has
$4,577.28 on hand. Pettingil has $2,202 on hand, remarkably low for an
incumbent.
House District 76
Registration: D 5494, R 6563, N 7921, total 19993, R +1069
No Incumbent
While
the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is
completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of
southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk
County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of
Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. The 2010 wave swept out Democrat Eric Palmer and
replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are
both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. About
60% of the seat is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the
bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of
the Amanas. The new lines place it near the middle of the pack: #61
most Democratic/#40 most Republican.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. Business owner David Maxwell easily beat county supervisor Larry Wilson in the Republican primary, 67-33%.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Friends for Rachel Bly, MAXWELL FOR STATE HOUSE Maxwell has a slim money lead with $12,657.41 on hand, but he was spending on a primary. Bly had $11,072.35 in the bank.
Senate District 38, House District 75 & 76: District of the Day 1 - 6/15/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 38. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Senate District 38. Show all posts
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 38, Iowa House District 75 & 76
Senate District 38
Registration: D 12758, R 13134, N 18557, total 44483, R +376
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone; contested Democratic primary
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic. Bleeding Heartland has a lengthy write-up that pre-dates Volk's announcement.
Campaign finance reports: Kapucian for State Senate (all the Democrats started late)
House District 75
Registration: D 5755, R 6247, N 9352, total 21365, R +492
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettengill took this seat, with a lot of Democratic party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, defecting on many key issues. Finally, on the last day of the 2007 session, she defected from the party entirely and joined the Republicans.
The Democratic response was 1) don't let the door hit you on the way out 2) see you at the polls. But Pettingill won with 55% in 2008, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings, are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the turf is familiar, as Pettingill keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House District and the county stays whole.
Campaign finance report: Pettengill for Iowans
House District 76
Registration: D 7003, R 6887, N 9205, total 23118, D +116
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.
Republicans haven't settled things. Mark Dix of Brooklyn announced but then dropped out early in favor of business owner David Maxwell, to avoid a primary. But later, county supervisor Larry Wilson got in, so there's a primary after all.
Maxwell for State House had raised $700 by the January 19 campaign finance report, $500 of that from himself. Friends for Rachel Bly had $6,964.
Original post 6/15/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12758, R 13134, N 18557, total 44483, R +376
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone; contested Democratic primary
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic. Bleeding Heartland has a lengthy write-up that pre-dates Volk's announcement.
Campaign finance reports: Kapucian for State Senate (all the Democrats started late)
House District 75
Registration: D 5755, R 6247, N 9352, total 21365, R +492
Incumbent: Dawn Pettengill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettengill took this seat, with a lot of Democratic party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, defecting on many key issues. Finally, on the last day of the 2007 session, she defected from the party entirely and joined the Republicans.
The Democratic response was 1) don't let the door hit you on the way out 2) see you at the polls. But Pettingill won with 55% in 2008, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. She then went unopposed in 2010 in one of the Democrats' more painful recruiting failures.
They didn't let that happen again, as small-business owner Sandra Cronbaugh of Marengo is running. The swing seat numbers, and the hard feelings, are going to keep this seat on the Democratic target list.
But the turf is familiar, as Pettingill keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House District and the county stays whole.
Campaign finance report: Pettengill for Iowans
House District 76
Registration: D 7003, R 6887, N 9205, total 23118, D +116
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
Democrats united early behind Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly, who won her first term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.
Republicans haven't settled things. Mark Dix of Brooklyn announced but then dropped out early in favor of business owner David Maxwell, to avoid a primary. But later, county supervisor Larry Wilson got in, so there's a primary after all.
Maxwell for State House had raised $700 by the January 19 campaign finance report, $500 of that from himself. Friends for Rachel Bly had $6,964.
Original post 6/15/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Monday, March 12, 2012
Day 11 of Filing
Friday night's big news was Wilton Republican Jeff Kaufmann announcing he was not seeking re-election in House District 73. Today, we got the follow-up the rumor mill had told us about: son Bobby Kaufmann, 26, will run in dad's seat. He'll face the winner of the Democratic primary between Dick Schwab of Solon and David Johnson of West Branch.
Another son of a legislator filed today in a very different story. Daniel Lundby of Marion is the son of the late Mary Lundby, former Senate Republican leader. But Daniel filed as a Democrat. It's a symbolically powerful statement about the end of Mary Lundby's brand of pragmatic moderation, as Daniel hopes to take the House seat she once held, now District 68, from Republican Nick Wagner.
There may be another last-second retirement. We have two filings in Warren County's House District 26. Neither of them is the incumbent, tea partier Glen Massie. There was talk Massie might pull a Pearson and quit after a single term, and now that I think about it I don't remember seeing an actual Massie announcement... The two who filed today are Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic) Steve McCoy and Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman.
Republican Andrew Wilson of Burlington appears to be Some Dude, but that's more opposition than Dennis Cohoon usually gets in solidly Democratic House 87.
Dubuque Republican Paul Kern gave then-speaker Pat Murphy a scare at the polls in 2010; Kern is back for another try in House 99
Also news to me, though apparently she's all over the web: Cedar Rapids Republican Randi Shannon filed in Senate District 34, now held by Democrat Liz Mathis.
And Republican Brian Cook of Manchester files in no-incumbent Senate District 48. He has a primary with Dan Zumbach; winner sees Rep. Nate Willems, D-Lisbon, in November.
In the overlapping House seat, House District 95, Center Point Republican Quentin Stanerson files.
In filings we already expected, two more Republican candidates file in This Is Where Your District Went, House 37: John Landon and Stacey Rogers. That brings the total filed to four in the more Republican of the two Ankeny seats.
In the other Ankeny seat, Democrat John Phoenix filed in House District 38. He's challenging GOP incumbent Kevin Koester, who also filed today, in a swing seat.
Democrat now officially have a three way primary in open House District 36 as William Rock files. He has my favorite committee name: Citizens For Rock. Sounds like a lost Tenacious D track. The other Dems are Marti Anderson and Cara Kennedy-Ode; winner is a heavy November favorite.
In no-incumbent Senate District 4, Democrat Bob Jennings filed; the GOP has a primary between Dennis Guth and former senator Jim Black.
Democrat Steve Bomgaars filed in no-incumbent Huse District 2, where he'll face the winner of a GOP primary between Megan Hess and Josh Davenport.
Both announced Republicans filed in House District 55, held by Democrat Roger Thomas. Spillville mayor Michael Klimesh, who lost a 2010 race, will face Dustin Noble of Decorah in the primary.
Non-filing news: Shelley Parbs of Urbana is the second Democrat to announce in Senate District 38, joining LaForest Sherman (who filed today). The winner faces GOP incumbent Tim Kapucian in a much-changed swing seat. Bleeding Heartland has a good look.
Lee Harder (the article gets his name wrong) of Hillsboro is the second Republican to announce in open Senate District 42 (the Gene Fraise seat). Harder finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary. Lee County supervisor Larry Kruse announced before Fraise retired; the Democrats have a three-way primary.
Routine Incumbents filing today:
Tom Courtney, D-Burlington, in Senate District 44
Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, D-Ames in House District 45
Lisa Heddens, D-Ames in House District 46
Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada in House District 49
Josh Byrnes, R-Osage in House District 51
Walt Rogers, R-Cedar Falls in House District 60
Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids in House District 66
House speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha in House District 67
Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk in House District 83
Tom Sands, R-Wapello in House District 88
And oh yeah, someone named Vilsack.
Another son of a legislator filed today in a very different story. Daniel Lundby of Marion is the son of the late Mary Lundby, former Senate Republican leader. But Daniel filed as a Democrat. It's a symbolically powerful statement about the end of Mary Lundby's brand of pragmatic moderation, as Daniel hopes to take the House seat she once held, now District 68, from Republican Nick Wagner.
There may be another last-second retirement. We have two filings in Warren County's House District 26. Neither of them is the incumbent, tea partier Glen Massie. There was talk Massie might pull a Pearson and quit after a single term, and now that I think about it I don't remember seeing an actual Massie announcement... The two who filed today are Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic) Steve McCoy and Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman.
Republican Andrew Wilson of Burlington appears to be Some Dude, but that's more opposition than Dennis Cohoon usually gets in solidly Democratic House 87.
Dubuque Republican Paul Kern gave then-speaker Pat Murphy a scare at the polls in 2010; Kern is back for another try in House 99
Also news to me, though apparently she's all over the web: Cedar Rapids Republican Randi Shannon filed in Senate District 34, now held by Democrat Liz Mathis.
And Republican Brian Cook of Manchester files in no-incumbent Senate District 48. He has a primary with Dan Zumbach; winner sees Rep. Nate Willems, D-Lisbon, in November.
In the overlapping House seat, House District 95, Center Point Republican Quentin Stanerson files.
In filings we already expected, two more Republican candidates file in This Is Where Your District Went, House 37: John Landon and Stacey Rogers. That brings the total filed to four in the more Republican of the two Ankeny seats.
In the other Ankeny seat, Democrat John Phoenix filed in House District 38. He's challenging GOP incumbent Kevin Koester, who also filed today, in a swing seat.
Democrat now officially have a three way primary in open House District 36 as William Rock files. He has my favorite committee name: Citizens For Rock. Sounds like a lost Tenacious D track. The other Dems are Marti Anderson and Cara Kennedy-Ode; winner is a heavy November favorite.
In no-incumbent Senate District 4, Democrat Bob Jennings filed; the GOP has a primary between Dennis Guth and former senator Jim Black.
Democrat Steve Bomgaars filed in no-incumbent Huse District 2, where he'll face the winner of a GOP primary between Megan Hess and Josh Davenport.
Both announced Republicans filed in House District 55, held by Democrat Roger Thomas. Spillville mayor Michael Klimesh, who lost a 2010 race, will face Dustin Noble of Decorah in the primary.
Non-filing news: Shelley Parbs of Urbana is the second Democrat to announce in Senate District 38, joining LaForest Sherman (who filed today). The winner faces GOP incumbent Tim Kapucian in a much-changed swing seat. Bleeding Heartland has a good look.
Lee Harder (the article gets his name wrong) of Hillsboro is the second Republican to announce in open Senate District 42 (the Gene Fraise seat). Harder finished a distant third in the 2008 2nd Congressional District primary. Lee County supervisor Larry Kruse announced before Fraise retired; the Democrats have a three-way primary.
Routine Incumbents filing today:
And oh yeah, someone named Vilsack.
Monday, March 05, 2012
Monday Announcements
Lots of legislative announcements over the weekend, but most of them are repeat Offical Announcements by candidates who said so months ago. But we did get a couple new Senate challengers:
In Senate District 38, rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman announced against first term Republican Tim Kapucian. Bleeding Heartland has a lengthy write-up this AM.
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
So it's a potential target, but still, the late start and bio for Sherman don't scream Top Tier recruit to me.
In heavily Democratic Senate District 44, GOP veteran Bradley Bourn has announced against ten year Democratic incumbent Tom Courtney. The turf is all of Des Moines and Louisa counties plus parts of western Muscatine County. Courtney was a 60-40 winner in 2008 and unopposed before that.
Unrelated: One of my new favorite sites, Mental Floss, asks and partially answers one of my perennial favorite questions: Why is the Drinking Age 21? It'd be nice to talk about that while we talk about building a new jail...
This is a swing district; since Map Day the caucuses have flipped a slim D registration edge to a slim R edge. It's also mostly new turf for Benton-based Kapucian, who picks up all of Iowa County (he had a piece before) and significantly all of Poweshiek.
So it's a potential target, but still, the late start and bio for Sherman don't scream Top Tier recruit to me.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76
District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76
Senate District 38
Registration: D 12356, R 12322, N 16759, total 41472, D+ 34
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
House District 75
Registration: D 5671, R 5854, N 8611, total 20149, R+ 183
Incumbent: Dawn Pettingill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettingill took this seat, with a lot of party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, flaking off on many key issues. In a move that was played for maximum drama, Pettengill defected to the GOP on the last day of the 2007 session. (Then-speaker Chris Rants had telegraphed a "big announcement," and for a few hours the rumor mill thought it was his own resignation.)
So Democrats wanted this one bad in 2008, but Pettingill won with 55%, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. Then Democrats lost the 2010 race at the candidate recruitment stage, failing to find a challenger.
Other than her party, almost nothing has changed for Pettingill, who keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House district and the county stays whole. The minimal changes mean this stays a swing seat.
House District 76
Registration: D 6685, R 6468, N 8148, total 21323, D + 217
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts and ending up with no incumbent.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. We'll look at that on Friday. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
The Palmer-Carroll battles had counter-intuitive results: Democrat Palmer lived in red Oskaloosa, but won his margins of victory in Grinnell. Carroll lived in Grinnell but performed better in Mahaska. The question for Democrats: can they introduce Palmer to a friendly realtor in Grinnell? As for DeBoef, check back tomorrow.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Senate District 38
Registration: D 12356, R 12322, N 16759, total 41472, D+ 34
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.
House District 75
Registration: D 5671, R 5854, N 8611, total 20149, R+ 183
Incumbent: Dawn Pettingill, R-Mt. Auburn
Pettingill took this seat, with a lot of party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, flaking off on many key issues. In a move that was played for maximum drama, Pettengill defected to the GOP on the last day of the 2007 session. (Then-speaker Chris Rants had telegraphed a "big announcement," and for a few hours the rumor mill thought it was his own resignation.)
So Democrats wanted this one bad in 2008, but Pettingill won with 55%, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. Then Democrats lost the 2010 race at the candidate recruitment stage, failing to find a challenger.
Other than her party, almost nothing has changed for Pettingill, who keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House district and the county stays whole. The minimal changes mean this stays a swing seat.
House District 76
Registration: D 6685, R 6468, N 8148, total 21323, D + 217
No Incumbent
While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts and ending up with no incumbent.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.
Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. We'll look at that on Friday. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.
The Palmer-Carroll battles had counter-intuitive results: Democrat Palmer lived in red Oskaloosa, but won his margins of victory in Grinnell. Carroll lived in Grinnell but performed better in Mahaska. The question for Democrats: can they introduce Palmer to a friendly realtor in Grinnell? As for DeBoef, check back tomorrow.
New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)