Bikes Rule The Planet

Bikes Rule The Planet

"There are 1.4 billion bicycles in service in the world today (vs. 400 million cars), making it the most popular vehicle on Earth."

50 State Governor Ratings - Survey USA

50 State Governor Ratings - Survey USA

North Dakota loves its incumbents: the two Democratic Senators topped that survey, now GOP Guv John Hoeven leads this poll with an amazing +62% positive rating. Taft of Ohio is also at 62 - MINUS 62, the lamest of lame ducks. Alaska's Murkowski is next worst at minus 57 and is probably going to finish THIRD in his PRIMARY tonight.

Vilsack is in the middle of the pack at plus 8. A quick look at other wannabees - remember, this is home state popularity:

Richardson (D-NM) +33

Huckabee (R-AR) +18

Romney (R-MA) -1

Pataki (R-NY) -12

Northey Gets Nasty

Northey Gets Nasty

I was wondering how long it would take the GOP to start red-baiting (or green-baiting as the case may be) Denise O'Brien. Well, from the in-box, it seems the time is now:

Democratic Secretary of Agriculture candidate Denise O’Brien released a copy of a fundraising letter written by her opponent that attacks her, and expressed sadness that her opponent had turned to negativity and fear tactics so quickly...

The letter states that O’Brien works with “what some may call 'fringe' agricultural groups.” O’Brien responded, “My opponent is trying to attack me but put the blame for the attack on ‘someone else,’ Iowans are too smart to fall for that. He needs to either name the so-called ‘fringe groups’ himself, or admit he is misleading people and apologize.”

O’Brien also refuted Northey’s claim that the groups she works with are “fringe.” “I’m a member of Practical Farmers of Iowa, was President of the National Family Farm Coalition, and was President of the Iowa Association of County Conservation Boards. Those groups are well-respected mainstream organizations,” said O’Brien.

Sounds good to me...

O’Brien also stressed that, while she is an organic farmer, she wants to see full support for all kinds of agriculture in Iowa. “My husband and I chose to farm organically because we felt running a
smaller farm would make it easier for us to raise our three children as two full-time parents. Our family values led us to organic farming as much as anything else - we've always done everything as a family,” said O’Brien.

The strategy is clear: say nothing about yourself, try to paint O'Brien into a hippie-chick earthy crunchy corner with all the conscious and subconscious associations that implies. The fast reaction tells me she's too smart to take that lying down. Denise O'Brien has been underestimated ever since she got into this race. And I happen to like granola. (With a nice latte for David Yepsen on the side.)

My Moment Of Mainstream Media Glory

My Moment Of Mainstream Media Glory

I had a brief phone interview last week with an AP reporter who, in the post-Lamont era, was getting the local angle and looking at the Iowa political blogosphere. And sure enough, it hit on a day I was being a human being and didn't post:

John Deeth, a former candidate for the Iowa House, runs a political blog out of Iowa City. He said most of the visitors he finds coming to his blog, which focuses on Democratic politics, are already in the political community...

Have to wait and see if this spins the hit counter any; lots of link love to lots of folks here.

DNC Sets The Schedule - Does It Matter?

DNC Sets The Schedule - Does It Matter?

DNC makes the batting order of IA, NV, NH, SC official. NH not happy:

'The DNC did not give New Hampshire its primary, and it is not taking away,' New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch said. Secretary of State William Gardner has said he will decide next year whether to move the New Hampshire primary earlier.

Eager to avoid such a rebellion, Democrats also adopted sanctions to punish presidential candidates by penalizing who campaign in states that cut in line. Under that plan, candidates who venture into states that ignore party rules would not get any delegates from those contests.

But even DNC members were unsure how effective such a sanction would be, particularly if the states doing the leapfrogging are small and have few delegates to offer.

The delegates don't make the difference and everyone knows it, as noted in the New York Times: "Several Democrats said candidates might make the calculation that it is worth losing delegates — assuming New Hampshire defies the party and the party penalizes candidates — to get the attention that might come from an early New Hampshire victory."

If the media - old and new - decide New Hampshire is news, they will cover it and the candidates will be there. Maybe the blogosphere can play a role: pressing the candidates to boycott unsanctioned contests.

The other factor is the other party - the GOP has always had a much more hands off approach to the timing process. New Hampshire could leapfrog and the RNC could be OK with it, which means a legitimate GOP primary and a unsanctioned Democratic primary on the same day. Utter chaos, cats and dogs living together.

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Kos refers us to an article at Political Cortex on the method behind the madness of GOP rhetorical excess

The Overton Window (is) a means of framing a discussion that -- not incidentally -- originated at a right wing think tank. The idea is that is you want to move a political position from point A to point B, the first thing you need to do is move the national discourse way out to point D. Maybe voice a little support for point E, or M. Keep it up long enough, and B looks so tame even your opponents are supporting it.

In the Overton Window of general political discourse, where are the Republicans? On a line where A starts with "Democrats are my worthy opponents" and B is "Democrats are incompetent" and C is "Democrats are fools," the right is somewhere around P or Q. Have you looked at the bestseller lists? Liberals are traitors. Liberals are "godless." Liberals deserve to die. They should all be lined up and shot.

What's the worst thing that left is saying about the right? The very worst? Republicans are corrupt. Republicans are incompetent. Republicans are hypocrites. Republicans are... well, that's it, really. When it comes to the battlefield of political discourse, we've surrendered the middle ground. We're fighting full time in Republican territory.

Filing Deadline Roundup

Filing Deadline Roundup

With the filing deadline JUST past, a statewide list (pdf) is posted at the Johnson County Auditor for your convenience.

Here’s a quick overview. See previous posts for names, I think I covered everyone earlier in the week. Kick my butt if I missed something.

Congressional: multi-way fields in CDs 1 (independent libertarian, Pirate), 3 (Soc. Workers), and 5 (two independents); two way contests in 2 and 4

Governor: Five candidates, which is about typical. (2002=4, 1998=5, 1994=6) Green, Libertarian, Soc. Workers. Because of the strict party status law this is the must-run race for third parties – the only way to get that G or L or SW on your voter card is to win 2 percent in this race. In other states, vote totals for other offices can qualify a party, which may explain why…

Statewides: The third parties take a complete pass for the first time in modern memory. The Libertarian looking at Treasurer seems not to have happened. Two way contests in the open seats for State and Agriculture. Amazingly, Tom Miller, Mike Fitzgerald and David Vaudt go completely unopposed – first time that’s happened since four-year terms started in 1974.

(Also the year Miller first ran – he lost that time but knocked off the incumbent in ’78 and has held the job ever since except for the four year Bonnie Campbell interregnum when Miller lost the governor’s primary to Don Avenson.)

Last time a major party left a statewide race uncontested was in 1998 when GOP Auditor Richard Johnson was opposed only by Reform and Natural Law (may they both rest in peace). He was also opposed only by a Socialist in the 1980 special election.

Legislative races: Two independents in state senate races, one in Ottumwa (Krieman, three way race) and one in Iowa City (Bolkcom) where there’s no Republican but the independent seems to have tacit GOP support. A handful on the House side, most notably Republican incumbent Joe Hutter in Bettendorf who lost the primary to a challenger from the right as part of the Maggie Tinsman Massacre and is running Lieberman style. Two Libertarians: one in Ames, the other in Ako’s race.

In Johnson County, it’s free rides for Dvorsky, Jacoby, Mascher and Lensing. Statewide four Senate donkeys (Dvorsky, Horn, Hatch, Seng) and two elephants (Weick, Houser) get passes. Too many on the House side to list them all - leaders Rants and Pat Murphy are both opposed only by Mickey Mouse on the write in line.

Aside: You have the absolute legal right to do that but please don't. The little old ladies and gentlemen who work at the polls have to count those by hand and they don't find it funny at the very end of an 18 hour work day. And don't even get me started on Fred Hoiberg.

Here's a few legislative contests that leap out to me, with a slight eastern Iowa bias:

Senate

5: Kurtenbach-Olive for Stu Iverson's seat.

9: Open race - Bill Heckroth (D) and Tom Hoogestraat (R) in GOP Brunkhorst's district

13: Dem incumbent Roger Stewart looks good but has a credible GOP challenger in Clinton Mayor Lametta Wynn.

19: Rep. Rob Hogg can pick one up from Chuck Larson (who's stepping down but I'm afraid won't stay out of the ball game forever)

37: Call her Senator Staci Appel, she scared the GOP incumbent into a House race instead.

41: Can latecomer Democrat Phyllis Thede win over moderate Republicans unhappy with David Hartsuch's defeat of Maggie Tinsman?

45: Becky Schmitz of Fairfield is a strong challenger to GOP incumbent Dave Miller.

House

17: Scion Pat "Grandson" Grassley should get loads of attention and cash.

21: Dem Don Shoultz should be OK but has an unusually well known GOP challender in former KWWL-TV anchor Tami Wiencek.

66: Ed Fallon's old seat will get lots of attention; the Register is trying to tie Ako Abdul-Samad to CITEC and the GOP, Libertarians, and an independent are running late-starting campaigns.

80: In one of 2004's big upsets, Democrat Nathan Reichert foiled the comeback attempt of my one time rival Barry Brauns, which if I remember my lines right means David Stanley himself is in a Democratic House district! The apoplectic Muscatine County GOP has recruited incumbent sheriff Greg Orr for the race.

82: Rematch from the primary as Joementum Hutter takes on his primary foe Linda Miller.

89: Close to home for me, Dem Mark Nolte taking on Sandra Greiner.

Feel free to comment and add your favorite races - white-hot or sleeper.

Mike Blouin is getting his old job back

Mike Blouin is getting his old job back

So says the Register.

Rachel Corrie’s Iowa Aunt in 5th CD Race

Rachel Corrie’s Iowa Aunt in 5th CD Race

Another filing in the unwinnable west: Cheryl Brodersen of Denison files as an independent. She appears to be the aunt of Rachel Corrie, the Washington state woman who was killed by Israeli bulldozers while trying to block the demolition of Palestinian homes. Should add some spice to the dialogue out west.

Bush Popularity=20 Electoral Votes

Bush Popularity=20 Electoral Votes

Survey USA again: Bush is net positive only in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. Spot him one congressional district in electoral vote splitting Nebraska, and that adds up to 20. Here in Iowa? A net -24%.

50 State Senate Ratings

50 State Senate Ratings

Homestate popularity once again from Survey USA. North Dakota's two Dems - Conrad and Dorgan - top the charts; Conrad is #1 and up for re-elect.

Montana's Conrad Burns is dead last (-16); learn to say "Senator John Tester."

Grassley's 17th; Harkin in the middle of the pack.

Among the wannabees, Joe Biden is doing the best in his home state; Feingold and Kerry are lowest (but still net positive). Feingold, like Harkin, is a Democrat Republicans love to hate; I think Massachusetts is just mad that Kerry blew it in `04.

CD 1 Getting Crowded

CD 1 Getting Crowded

Another filing yesterday in the supernova-hot 1st CD race: Albert Schoeman, who ran in `92 as the Grassroots candidate (that was a shortlived party with a "you put your weeeeeed in it" platform) and from `94 to `00 as a Libertarian. Ron at Politics1 would call him a "frequent candidate." Yesterday's listing had him without a party this time.

Hoping to provide a nice comprehensive roundup some time tomorrow night after the 5 PM deadline since no one else (ahem) seems to be doing so. (A list specific to Johnson County, including statewide races, is here.) Feel free, gentle readers, to let me know what angles you're interested in.

Wal-Mart: Nice job you got here. Shame to see anything happen to it

Wal-Mart: Nice job you got here. Shame to see anything happen to it

Maybe I'm a day or so behind the curve here on the Wake Up Wal-Mart tour, but the letter to Iowa employees is a bit scary:

The world's largest retailer announced it is sending out what it terms a "voter education guide" to its 18,000 Iowa employees, criticizing politicians who have recently joined with the union-backed group "Wake Up Wal-Mart" for a series of rallies. Iowa holds the nation's first presidential caucus, and potential candidates are already visiting the state.

"We believe it's wrong for these political candidates to attack Wal-Mart and the transformation under way at our company," the letter said. "We would never suggest to you how to vote, but we have an obligation to tell you when politicians are saying something about your company that isn't true."

Just a reminder: the Iowa caucuses are a town meeting, not an election. You cast your vote by very publicly choosing a corner of the room. "Friendly advice" from the boss, especially if the boss is the dominant employer in a small town, can certainly have a chilling effect to say the least. And I wouldn't put it past Wally to be keeping tabs...

One more reason not to shop there, as if we need more.

Loebsack's Brushes With Greatness

Loebsack's Brushes With Greatness

In the Gazette, James Lynch writes:

It's a rare week that goes by that Dave Loebsack doesn't share the political podium with a potential presidential candidate. It's a mutually beneficial arrangement. Loebsack , a Mount Vernon Democrat challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Leach, gets some much-needed media attention as well as help raising equally-needed campaign funds. ''If I have the resources,'' he said Tuesday before sharing the spotlight with Indiana Democrat Sen. Evan Bayh, ''I have no doubt that my chances are better than 50-50.''

Lynch then ties it in to the 25 staffers Bayh is shipping to Iowa this cycle. My guess is they'll stay right where they are in November.

5th CD, 3rd Candidate

5th CD, 3rd Candidate

Follow up on this morning: Sioux City Journal reports Orange City businessman Roy Nielsen will file in the 5th CD race, apparantly as a pure independent. Should have little impact in Steve King's very red district. Hat tip to Iowa Politics.

UPDATE 8/17: He filed.

Filing Deadline Friday

Filing Deadline Friday

The state filing deadline is Friday and with the GOP's hole on the Secretary of State line plugged, the races have more or less taken shape.

Looks like fewer third party contenders this time. Governor is the must-run race because of the law requiring 2% for that office and president to get and keep party status (one of the stricter standards in the nation-and what does anyone know about the pending lawsuit?). Green Wendy Barth filed this week joining Socialist Workers contender Mary Martin on the ballot. The Greens don't seem to be contesting anything else; fellow blogger Brian Depew ran a decent race for Secretary of Ag four years ago, but he's now attending school out of state and Denise O'Brien is a green Dem down to the yard signs, calling for local hog lot control this week.

The Libertarians hadn't filed as of Tuesday afternoon but their site lists former congressional candidate Kevin Litten of Cedar Rapids as the gubernatorial contender. Earlier in the year they had petitions posted listing Fairfield city councilor Christy Welty as the nominee, and Litten for Secretary of State, but those were pulled. (The Iowa LP shuffled nominees and contests late in the game in 2002 as well.) They seem to have a slimmer slate than in past years as well, The only other races listed are one state rep race and state treasurer, which would make them Mike Fitzgerald's only opposition. Tom Miller and David Vaudt look to be getting completely free rides with no major or minor party competition. Perhaps the LP is in some disarray after this summer's major platform changes on the national level.

On the congressional side, three out of five races are two-way, with aforementioned Pirate James Hill running in the 1st CD and the Socialist Workers trying in the 3rd.

Meanwhile the Secretary of State's web site STILL isn't listing filings on their web site. They'd been doing it every election back to the Pate administration, but all they have this time is a list of primary winners. What's with that?

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Sharing some Lieberman stuff:

Bob Geiger has a handy list of Democratic Senators who have endorsed nominee Ned Lamont - 25 so far including Tom Harkin. Four (excluding Joementum himself) have bolted the party and endorsed the de facto Republican.

Chris of MyDD and Matthew Gross are calling on Harry Reid to strip Lieberman of his committee assignments and Democratic seniority.

Mauro: Welcome to the race, let's debate

Mauro: Welcome to the race, let's debate

Didn't take long to hit the in box:

Michael Mauro, the Iowa Democratic nominee for Secretary of State, today welcomed his new Republican opponent to the race and subsequently challenged his third announced candidate for Secretary of State to a series of debates.

"I would like to give Iowans the opportunity to hear both me and my opponents' experience in small business and election administration and our goals as Secretary of State in a series of debates." Mauro stated earlier today.

Also from the komments at Krusty, Hanusa was a defeated kandidate for office in Pottawattamie County once upon a time; I couldn't find details. Nothing wrong with losing one - I've done it myself - but it doesn't bode well for the future.

Well, they finally got somebody

Well, they finally got somebody

Register reports this AM on last night's nomination:

The Iowa GOP looked to the White House on Monday night in picking a replacement candidate for Iowa secretary of state after their previous one dropped out last month.

Iowa Republicans named Mary Ann Hanusa, 43, as their candidate. Hanusa lives in suburban Washington, D.C., and handles President Bush's personal correspondence.

Although several names had been floated in recent weeks, Hanusa was the only person considered Monday night, Sheehan said.

Sheehan said Hanusa will be moving or already has moved back to Iowa.

Jane Norman mentioned her in late 2002 in an artice on Iowans working in the White House:

Hanusa helps the president field letters from family members and personal friends... and worked in correspondence for the president's father during his administration.

A DOUBLE Bush connection - JUST what the Republicans need. Although a quick googling indicates she was a Grassley staffer from 1996 to 2001. I'm thinking she'll emphasize that connection more.

Norman also noted Hanusa headed up the Bush campaign effort in Pottawattamie County. So that's some experience (from the other end of the process) in elections. Not the kind of official experience as, oh, being the auditor of the largest county in Iowa...

This was in the Council Bluffs Nonpareil Friday but I missed it, along with nearly everyone else. Hawkeye GOP had it, and commentator Iowa Guy at Political Forecast mentioned Hanusa and one other.

Hanusa, who is back in Council Bluffs for a few days, has been in contact with members of the state central committee getting her name across, she said.

"Granted, I'm a new face, but I've just been asking them for their consideration for me, and none of them have said, 'No, I won't vote for you,' which is good," Hanusa said.

That's strong praise. Nothing at all on her stand on issues - especially vote suppression - or actual relevant experience. The Democrats have literally the most qualified candidate possible in Mike Mauro and the Republicans blew their opportunity in this open seat race. If the eight or so other names mentioned had thought this was a winnable race, they'd have stayed in. I'm guessing the GOP is calling fourth down and long yardage on this race, and playing for field position:

Any minimal name ID she has is in western Iowa and Hanusa helps hold the base and get out the vote for Nussle.

Hanusa makes a credible losing race as an unknown and runs for something else later. That worked in Council Bluffs for Paul Shomshor - crushed by Steve King in a 2002 no-chance race, elected to the state House in an August `03 special. I'm guessing Hanusa will go house shopping in Mike Gronstal's district.

Aside: I've been looking for ages but I can't find the worst downs-yardage situation in NFL history. I remember reading that the 60's Packers once had the Cleveland Browns at a 4th down and 52, but I can't document it.

Fathers Defeated, Democratic Sons Strike Back

Fathers Defeated, Democratic Sons Strike Back

NY Times article looks at several Democratic scions out there running including Chet, trying to tie it all in to a generational theme. I don't really notice any more of a trend this year than in other years. From an Iowan perspective, it doesn't really shed new light on Culver either, but there's a few good anecdotes here and there.

CQ Rates the Races

CQ Rates the Races

Nothing local striking my fancy this AM, but Congressional Quarterly has a national rundown:

All you can do, really, is figure out which way the wind is blowing. And the wind that’s blowing today has the GOP running, not walking, for protective cover. All current indicators suggest that the Big One — hurricane, tidal wave, tsunami or tornado; pick your own catastrophic metaphor — is gathering in the middle distance.

Republicans find themselves particularly vulnerable in the Midwest and Northeast, and they even have cause for worry in their geographic strongholds of the South and West. The only thing the GOP appears to have going for it right now is the fact that most voters have yet to tune in to the details of their upcoming electoral choices.

Obviously Braley-Whalen is near the top of the No Clear Favorite list. CD 3 is listed as Leans Dem and Dave Loebsack is on the map (though they're saying "needs money.") With three out of five and Terrace Hill open, looks like a hot year again.

The wave will save Boswell, who really should start considering a plan of succession. And if it crests high enough, it could drown Leach, too.

Enjoy the links to the race by race breakdowns:

Senate

House: Northeast

South

Midwest

West

GOP: Futility and Feathers

GOP: Futility and Feathers

Latest on the Republicans' increasingly problematic search for a Secretary of State candidate: an in-box tipster points to 2002 nominee Mike Hartwig, who also got a late start last time (not as late as this: he announced post-primary deadline but pre-primary election so he got a handful of write-ins. Lost to Culver by about 10 points.

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Meanwhile Jim Leach is planning his town meetings and some Iowa Citians are grouching on the listservs about the Indian feather headbands he's been using for forever as parade gimmies. Folks have pointed out the non-PCness of it for ages. Giving in on this thing would be the kind of symbolic bone Leach would usually throw to Iowa City liberals, but instead there seems to be almost a Steve King defiance about it.

And it's not just a matter of using up the old stock: I've been watching Leach at parades for at least 12 years and a few years back they re-printed the headbands so they said JIM LEACH on both sides - seems some folks were turning the band inside out and not displaying his name.

Anyway there's two options: keep complaining about it, or elect Dave Loebsack and make it a moot point, and I prefer the latter.

Arrrr! Pirates Be A-Boardin' The Ballot!

Arrrr! Pirates Be A-Boardin' The Ballot!



Ahoy, mateys. It seems the Pirate Party is seeking electoral treasure in Iowa. Candidate James Hill is the third ship sailing in the Braley-Whalen race. This isn't a joke - well, it is, but it isn't. Hill will actually appear on the ballot as the nominee of the Pirate Party.

The original Pirate Party is based in Sweden and has a serious platform of copyright reform. There's also an American Pirate Party:

The basic idea of the Pirate Party is simple - the government should encourage, rather than smother, creativity and freedom.

Copyrights are now stretching into the hundreds of years, and fair use is under constant attack by attorneys who exploit the vagueness of the law. Creativity has come to a standstill in this country for those who wish to work within, and benefit from, the confines of the law...

Patents are suppressing innovation in the digital age by making it possible to monopolize methods and practices. Hundreds of thousands of patents sit on a shelf somewhere, never to be implemented, their ideas shut out from the rest of the world. That our law not only allows this, but enables this, is a travesty and a crime against innovators everywhere.

Lastly, the routinization of privacy violations in the digital age must be halted...

Doesn't sound like a joke to me. And what better way to get on the agenda than running in the hottest House race in the nation?

Hill is certainly the first Pirate candidate in Iowa and may be the first US candidate. He has a web site at www.jameshillforcongress.com/ but he appears to be using a host even more full of bilge and barnacles that Joe Lieberman's. For the moment the Google cache will have to do.

Whose ship will this sink? My guess this loots more ballot-box booty from small-l libertarians that from progressives. The Dems are more motivated this year and have a more bitter history with third party candidates, so they'll stay on board while the GOP sinks to Davey Jones' locker.

Other statewide third party filings remain slim: the Socialist Workers are running for governor and in the 3rd CD; no word yet from the Greens and Libertarians. Still no GOP candidate for Secretary of State - will they walk the plank on this race? (BTW, the Sec of State's office isn't putting updates on the website daily like in past years.)

Vilsack for draft?

Vilsack for draft?

State 29 picked up this tidbit from The Guv's recent trip to Alabama:

Vilsack said the United States must learn self sacrifice and public service, noting Israel requires men and women to serve in the military.

And we ALL wanna be more like Israel.

Harkin Gets it, Vilsack Not So Much

Harkin Gets it, Vilsack Not So Much

The Underrated One, Mike Glover, gets Lieberman-Lamont reacts from Iowa's top two Dems:

Vilsack said Wednesday he doesn't see a broader message from the Democratic Party in the defeat of three-term Sen. Joseph Lieberman in a heated Connecticut primary election.

"I think all politics is pretty local," Vilsack said. "There were multiple reasons why Sen. Lieberman failed to win."

"I don't think it sends a message at all about moderates and conservatives and progressives..."

So the Lieberman loss is... poor casework? Grandma didn't get her Social Security check and Junior didn't get that West Point appointment? Not enough jobs at the Groton Navy Yard? Funny, I don't remember those issues popping up...

Harkin said Democrats can take heart from Lamont's win.

"The election was all about George Bush," Harkin said. "There's a lot of voter anger about George Bush. There's a wave building."

At least Vilsack goes on record endorsing Lamont, which is more than his DLC pal Al From will do:

Leaders of the DLC exercising their rights as individuals will be on both sides of the Connecticut Senate race this fall. DLC Chairman Tom Vilsack, for example, has pledged to support the Democratic nominee. DLC Vice Chair Tom Carper has said he will support Senator Lieberman in November.

In my personal capacity, I will support Joe Lieberman, running as an independent Democrat.

Note that in Connecticut it's illegal for the ballot line for an independent candidate to incorporate the name of a recognized party, so Lieberman cannot run as an "independent Democrat."

Meanwhile the Overrated One is handed a trial balloon to float on the Sectetary of State race:

Former state Rep. Steve Churchill of Johnston is being mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for Iowa secretary of state. GOP insiders say Churchill would be a good candidate because of his ability to raise money...

So he's about the fifth tier choice after Allison, Dopf, Pate and Dix. Here's the punchline, and the reason this has been so quiet all week:

State Rep. Bill Dix of Shell Rock, who lost a GOP primary for Congress, has also been approached about making the run, but party insiders say he wants too much money to be raised for him.

Either that or Dix is hoping/thinking Mike Whalen will lose this fall and he wants to challenge Congressman Braley in 2008 without another loss under his belt.

Better hurry, GOP: only eight days to go...

And the guy with the F NADER plates on his Corvair is back in the news. I'll take a set of Connecticut plates with F JOE, please.

Rove to help Traitor Joe?

Rove to help Traitor Joe?

George Stephanopoulos: "According to a close Lieberman adviser, the President's political guru, Karl Rove, has reached out to the Lieberman camp with a message straight from the Oval Office: "The boss wants to help. Whatever we can do, we will do."

Lieberman Loses

Lieberman Loses

Watching bits and pieces of Joementum's no-class non-concession.

Tomorrow he tries to have it both ways and files as an independent. The Connecticut GOP is abandoning the flawed no-name nominee (actual name Alan Schlesinger but whio cares) that they can't manage to squeeze off the ballot. So this means if Lieberman lasts to the general, he'll be running as a de facto Republican. (Aside to all the Nader-bashing Dems from 2000: We told you so.)

But I'm still betting that within the next week, he gets talked into bailing, as the residual institutional support he held as an incumbent Democrat shift to Nominee Ned. Bill and Hillary and Dodd and Boxer and Ried and Schumer - all of them will be nudging him out.

Lipman Leaves School Race

Lipman Leaves School Race

A lost opportunity: Rich Lipman, who was lining up support from local Dems, has dropped out of the Iowa City school board race on withdrawal deadline day. So all you'll see on the ballot for the two seats is two candidates - pro-sales tax incumbent Jan Leff and registered Republican attorney Tim Krumm - and two write-in lines.

Any nominations for those lines?

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All eyes on Connecticut tonight: will Lieberman be Loserman? Think so...

Hope For The Future: Youth Give Bush Poor Grade, Hurting Republican Hopes

Hope For The Future: Youth Give Bush Poor Grade, Hurting Republican Hopes

Among 18-24 year olds, Bush is at an unbelievable 20 percent. His play to the base strategy may have damaged the GOP for a generation. Not that I'm complaining:

``The very cultural issues the president wants to use to rally his party's base are exactly the issues that are alienating younger voters,'' said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. ``Across a broad swath of social issues, younger Americans see the administration as being out of line with what they believe.''

The war in Iraq is also a major factor driving down public opinion among young voters, said Hans Riemer, political director at Rock the Vote, a group that works to get young people involved in civic life. ``Young people take it very personally,'' he said."

Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup

Very late edition today; was uninspired in the AM and been off having a life since.

Archie Brooks takes one for the team and bails, dramatically reducing the salience of CITEC as a fall issue. Over and over again we've seen: scandal only works if there's a direct link.

An Amusing look at B-List Candidates of both parties, including some 1994 GOP one term wonders.

This Boston Herald article will be the buzz of central committees for a while:

Any survey can be inaccurate or misleading. And 55 percent of ARG’s sample was either neutral or positive about Sen. Clinton. Thirty-two percent currently say they plan to vote for her in the primary.

But Bennett says he’s never before seen so many N.H. voters show so much hatred toward a member of their own party. He’s never even seen anything close.

“Forty-five percent of the Democrats are just as negative about her as Republicans are. More Republicans dislike her, but the Democrats dislike her in the same way.”

Hillary’s growing brain trust in the party’s upper reaches already knows she has high “negatives” among ordinary Democrats. They think she can win those voters over with the right strategy and message.

But we’re not talking about “soft” negatives like, say, “out of touch” or “arrogant.”

We’re talking: “Criminal . . . megalomaniac . . . fraud . . . dangerous . . . devil incarnate . . . satanic . . . power freak.”

Granted the Herald is the Murdoch tabloid of the Boston market. But somethig is real here. Voter sexism? Would another viable Democratic woman get the same reaction?

Mathew Gross predicts: "Hillary will have a hard time breaking above 35% of the white Democratic electorate, and, in the current calendar, is most likely to come in only second in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. South Carolina is another matter, and the string of southern states that follow will be Hillary's chance for a comeback if the high reverance for her husband among African Americans can be converted into support for her. That, of course, is a big IF."

My theory remains the contest quickly winnows to Clinton and the anti-Hillary, and what's underway now is the posturing to be the Not Hillary. WHich leaves self-proclaimed centrists (paging Mr. Vilsack) at a disadvantage.

Had good intentions to blog Mike Mauro, but family stuff came up literally on my way out the door and given the choice between seeing Mike Mauro or my kid, well sorry Mike. So my political activity for the weekend was limited to the Swisher parade where I photographed Ro Foege's Ro-Boats (not my camera so no photo-blogging). Confession: I used to wear a donkey suit in parades; one of the reasons I ran for the legislature was it got me out of wearing the donkey suit.

And the heat wave seems to have broken; the HQ of John Deeth Blog here at Bohemian Paradise is cooled by nature - or NOT cooled as the case may be. We peaked at a 92 degree indoor temperature, which made me somewhat disinclined to write. Seemed to help the Smallest Farm, though, as we are now harvesting pole beans. By "harvesting" we mean "one small serving about every four days." The heat also inhibited my participation in the annual Iowa City Curb Shopping Moving Sale; my take this year was limited to a couple shelves and Computer Number Seven. (That way if one breaks I still have six.)

Just Because It's Too Fun

Just Because It's Too Fun



Vague Political Tie-In: "Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley has changed his political uniform from red to blue and is talking again about running for governor of Alabama, possibly in 2010," Sports Illustrated reports.

Said Barkley: "Alabama, that's my home. I'm thinking about running for governor; they need the help."

Barkley recently expressed his dismay with the Republican party and would most likely run as a Democrat."

Let's hope Godzilla isn't his opponent in THAT contest...

Herseth winning big

Herseth winning big

Gratuitous Stephanie Herseth post, with gratuitious pictures:



She's winning 60-26. In a very red state. And that picture with George McGovern is still at the top of her front page.

Herseth's strength registered across all regions of the state listed in the poll, with the lowest, 53 percent, in western South Dakota. Whalen, of Pine Ridge, had 31 percent there.

She attracted support from 34 percent of the Republicans surveyed and 89 percent of Democrats. Whalen was favored by 46 percent of Republicans - with 20 percent undecided.

Independents went to Herseth 71 percent to 18 percent, with the remainder undecided.

Hopefully Iowa's Whalen will do just as poorly.

Sales tax: Divide and Conquer?

Sales tax: Divide and Conquer?

Everyone wants some of that penny pie:

Area governments are asking the schools to share the money, but school officials say they fear doing so would cause voters to reject the measure.

``I have not had one person contact me in support of sharing,'' school board member Toni Cilek said.

``You can build those schools, but there's going to be no roads to them,'' said Coralville Council member Tom Gill...

It'll be a tough sell even if it's just "for the kids" (and I'm not sold even on that.) Throw in pet city projects and kiss the penny goodbye.

Earlier this week Supervisor Rod Sullivan wrote:

I have mixed emotions on the ICCSD Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) issue. I wish the ICCSD had chosen an option that was less bad for the lower income people in our community. Now that they have decided to pursue the tax, I wish the other governmental entities would leave them alone.

Of course local governments should cooperate. For the most part, they do. I just think it is incredibly disingenuous of other governmental units to try to piggyback on the ICCSD. The other governments know that the public will pass a sales tax for the schools, but not for any other unit of government. They want a piece of the action. These governments all have the opportunity to ask the voters to approve bonds, and Iowa City and Johnson County can ask for Local Option Sales Taxes. They do not need the ICCSD to pursue these options. But most observers of local politics realize that the ICCSD is the only governmental unit that could pass a LOST.

Coveting their money is one thing, but do not pretend you are trying to HELP the ICCSD sell the tax. Most veteran political observers agree with my observation the voters do NOT want other governments involved. Anyone who says otherwise either doesn¹t speak to enough people, is full of it, or is very wrong.

Though I voted against the tax on the Board of Supervisors (it passed 4-1), I feel the attitude of Supervisors Chair Mike Lehman has been among the best I have seen. His approach has been, ³if you are interested in sharing, we could certainly use it.² Mike has been supportive, and has not tried any guilt trips or hard sells.

What¹s more, I find it incredibly hypocritical that Coralville is upset with the ICCSD for a failure to cooperate. Were the schools consulted about Coralville¹s use of TIF districts?

The Gazette quotes Kelly Hayworth as saying it is ³always a concern when lack of discussion occurs.² I agree. That is why I have been asking for public discussion of the $6.3 million Coralville¹s TIFs have cost the County over the past 5 years. I have been on the Board of Supervisors for 19 months, and I have followed every meeting for much longer. The Board has had zero public discussions with Coralville on the issue of TIFs during this time. Cooperation, anyone?

Perhaps the concern is that the ICCSD held a public meeting as opposed to a private one. I firmly believe that more, not less, of what we discuss should be public. So I applaud the ICCSD for holding meetings that were open to all.

Back to the ICCSD and their sales tax. It makes me angry. Ironically, I can sit back and watch as other local governments try to doom it to failure.

---

Meanwhile on the national scene: "Ned Lamont (D) leads Sen. Joe Lieberman (D (sic) -CT) 54% to 41% among likely Democratic primary voters..."

Mauro in IC Sunday

Mauro in IC Sunday

From the inbox:

Doug and Beverly Jones will be hosting a house party, August 6 from 3-5 pm 816 Park Rd in Iowa City and light fundraiser for Polk County Auditor Michael Mauro, Democratic Nominee for Secretary of State.

$25 suggested contribution and, as at all Dem events (Deeth notes: this means "in Johnson County"), everyone welcome and encouraged to attend whether you have the 25 bucks this week or not.

Register Roundup

Register Roundup

Editor emeritus Gilbert Cranberg speculates that the hard-right Iowa GOP platform hurts the caucuses. Not sure about that but it's a nice summary of lunacy: "The party's support for death-bed care for indigents actually is a softening of its position of four years ago that health care is a privilege, not a right..."

Meanwhile The Overated One actually touches on the truth - but only to reject it.

Not once...

While some Democrats dismiss him as a "loser" in a party that rarely gives a candidate a second chance, the crowd of about 100 in the Ness' backyard on Saturday didn't seem dismissive. With polls showing Kerry already running in third place among likely caucus-goers in Iowa, nobody else should be. He came from farther behind than that to win the 2004 caucus fight.

Not twice...

While some experts say Romney's Mormon faith will hurt him with some voters, it seemed to be helping him here Saturday.

but three times:

It's a measure of Romney's dedication to his Iowa effort that he broke away from the "Big Dig" calamity in Boston to keep his commitments in Iowa. Some in Boston thought he should have remained in the state to deal with the issue.

I'm not sure which is the bigger deal killer: the fact that Kerry was such a dull candidate that he couldn't defeat the least popular president since I Am Not A Crook, or the reality that the theocratic wing of the Republican Party considers the Mormon Church a pagan fertility cult. But both are absolute sorry, see ya, non starter deal breakers.

Pate's Out

Pate's Out

Several others beat me to it while I was having connection problems last night, but Paul Pate says no:

Pate — who served as secretary of state for four years, state senator for six years and, most recently, as Cedar Rapids mayor for four years — said ‘‘family responsibilities at this time’’ would not permit him to seek a return to state office.

Family responsibilities, the all-purpose excuse.... Seems odd because Pate was so gung ho just a couple days ago. The guy who's really screwed is primary loser Bob Dopf who first expressed interest, then bailed and endorsed Pate.

Speculation now seems to be centering on congressional primary loser Bill Dix. Mike Mauro, meanwhile, thinks he wants the desk over in that corner rather than this corner.

Horse's Head Dumped In Councilwoman's Pool

Horse's Head Dumped In Councilwoman's Pool

We've all heard political Godfather references, but this is taking it a bit far:

New York authorities are investigating the discovery a severed horse's head in a councilwoman's swimming pool.

Police in Wawayanda, N.Y., said the head was found Tuesday and is being treated as a threat against Councilwoman Gail Soro. A spokesman said she's been harassed before.

One of the most famous scenes in "The Godfather" showed a movie mogul waking up with a horse head in his bed after he refused to bow to the will of the title character, played by Marlon Brando.

The story fails to note whether or not Johnny Fontane got the part.

Sal for President!

Sal for President!

The new definition of undaunted. Or, as Ron at Politics1 euphemizes, "frequent candidate":

While Sal Mohamed of Sioux City placed an advertisement in the Journal Thursday inviting the public to his press conference to announce his run for President of the United States, he knows his candidacy could be halted, but is hoping it won't be.

As an Egypt-born man who became a U.S. citizen in 1983, Mohamed could be tripped up by the Constitution...

He finished third of three candidates in 2004 in the Democratic Party Iowa 5th District congressional primary, and last month finished fourth of four Democrats wanting the party's governor nominee title, which went to Chet Culver.

Discussing Mohamed's presidential aspirations, Woodbury County Democratic Party chairwoman Teresa Wolff said, "I think that Sal needs to take a look at his strategies in how he wants to get involved in politics."

Hat tip to Krusty.

Pate’s Shameful Record in Public Office

Pate’s Shameful Record in Public Office

I don't usually run verbatim press releases but the defense of Paul Pate in the comments has been vehement. So, via the IDP:

Pate Embellished His Educational Background in the Iowa Official Register. Pate claimed that he gradated from the Wharton School of Business when, in fact, he only attended a two-week program.

Pate Attempted to Copyright State Slogans Before Leaving Office. The Attorney General's office issued a ruling stating the state, not Pate personally, had the legal rights to marketing slogans.

Pate Said He Would Abolish the Secretary of State’s Office. Pate made a campaign promise to abolish the Secretary of State’s office or make major revisions to the position. He did neither one, and now, is considering running for the position again.

And since the question of residency has been raised: I checked the Red Book from 1993-94, Pate's last years in the Senate, and it lists a Marion (not Cedar Rapids) address. The House district he held was essentially the city of Marion; the Senate district was about half and half with Cedar Rapids.

Star Power: Lance vs. Kerry

Star Power: Lance vs. Kerry

Cyclist: banner headline.

About 600 people attended today’s Senate Field Hearing to hear seven-time Tour de France champ and cancer survivor Lance Armstrong talk about his fight with cancer.

2004 Democratic nominee: third paragraph.

The hearing, led by Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, and featuring Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, was organized to promote the advancement of cancer research in light of President Bush’s nearly $40 million dollar cut for the National Cancer Institute for fiscal year 2007.

Paul Pate on the comeback trail?

Paul Pate on the comeback trail?

Former Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is giving consideration to becoming the Republican Party of Iowa's candidate for Secretary of State, Republican activists told The Gazette.

Pate, who served in that office for eight years, would replace Chuck Allison, who dropped out of the race earlier this week, citing personal reasons...

Pate never misses an opportunity. He may be Iowa's champion job hopper: state rep and state senator from a Marion district, then in mid-senate term he jumps to Secretary of State forcing two special elections.

Sidebar: Here's the sequence from late `94 and early `95 in Linn County:

November 1994: General election, Pate elected Sec of State, resigns Senate seat.

December 1994: Representative Mary Lundby elected to Senate seat in special election. In February 1994, there was a senate vacancy in Johnson and Linn counties and then-Rep. Bob Dvorsky resigned the house seat so the two special elections could be combined. (We had a naaaaasty blizzard that day.) Bund Lundby refused to make that move, forcing yet another special election which was held in January `95.

Also in this time frame: Linn County has a special election for sheriff, AND the Marion and Linn-Mar school districts, which partially overlapped the legislative districts, had a (failed) merger vote.

So there were voters in parts of Marion that were in the Marion or Linn-Mar districts who went to the polls five times in nine weeks.

Four years later Pate loses the primary for governor, then he carpetbags into Cedar Rapids and gets elected mayor. Then the voters in effect abolish the job out from under him by making it part-time (coincidence?)

The foot doctor walks away

The foot doctor walks away


The Republican candidate for Iowa secretary of state is ending his campaign, a top party official said Wednesday.

Chuck Allison, a Des Moines podiatrist who won the Republican nomination in June, is expected to make an official announcement as early as today, throwing the race into disarray...

Sounds like the real issue is he's being sued by a former business partner.

The GOP now has about three weeks to get it together and get a new candidate, which I think - need to check the code - would require a new state convention.

Krusty beats me to the story and immediately gets behind primary loser Bob Dopf. (How did Allison win the primary in the first place?) Based on Dopf's stands in the primary, it doesn't change the eseential dynamic, the essential issue of the race: Mike Mauro wants to help people vote, the GOP wants to keep people from voting.

Clinton at JJ

Clinton at JJ

Bill, that is. Who wins? Kyle opines:

Make no mistake, getting Bill Clinton to come to this event is huge for the party. But it's also huge for Vilsack, because it means that Edwards, (Hillary) Clinton, Kerry, Gore, Feingold, Bayh, Biden, Warner, Gravel and any of the others I may have left out will not be on hand to overshadow our own federal office-seeker. And my guess is that was the goal all along.

Bill's star power relegates John Kerry's weekend visit to a sidebar - but anything Kerry does this weekend is getting blacked out by Lance Armstrong and RAGBRAI anyway. Kerry is feeling way too desperate these days.

Can Polling Location Influence How Voters Vote?

Can Polling Location Influence How Voters Vote?

Two Stanford researchers say so:

“Environmental cues, such as objects or places, can activate related constructs within individuals and influence the way they behave,” says Berger. “Voting in a school, for example, could activate the part of a person’s identity that cares about kids, or norms about taking care of the community. Similarly, voting in a church could activate norms of following church doctrine. Such effects may even occur outside an individual’s awareness.”

Interesting, but relatively difficult to work around in the traditional, neighborhood polling place model of lections. Some neighborhoods simply don't have a public building suitable for a polling place and the Help America Vote Act (sic) of 2002 has raised the bar on accessibility. Johnson County had to move five polling places this year and it was all the same shortcoming: a lack of paved, van accessible handicapped parking.

So it's hard enough to find a spot, and factoring in subtle biases would make it even harder.

One alternative to the neighorhood polling place is the voting center model of organizing Election Day. Instead of a polling place in each precinct, there are several super-polls. For example, Larimer County, Colorado had 22 voting centers rather than 145 polling places. And here's the good part: on Election Day you can vote at any one of those 22 sites (they're all networked to avoid the old Boston saying, "vote often and early for James Michael Curley.") The workers are trained to give you the correct ballot for your address.

In my experience, not knowing which polling place is the right one is a big barrier to participation. With the voting center, that problem is solved - there is no "wrong place."

The voting center saves money - poll workers are the biggest cost and while there are more workers at each super-center, there are fewer in total. That's worth noting, but not nearly as important as the increase in voter convenience.

Folks can get pretty attached to their neighborhood place, and I don't have a good answer to that. Walking distance and bus lines are important components of accessibility and those things keep me from wholeheartedly endorsing the center concept.

On my way to work I pass three polling places, yet if I want to vote on Election Day (which I haven't done in 10 years) I would have to go about a mile in the opposite direction as I just so happen to live at the far corner of a precinct and legislative district. In this day and age there should be a way to let folks choose where to vote on Election Day.

Iowa law doesn't yet allow for a voting center system on Election Day, but Johnson County's been successfully using satellite early voting sites, with ballots for all precincts available, since 1992 with great success.

I have nothing against paper trails, but the issue seems to be sucking up all the oxygen at the moment. It's like my ongoing rant about how the Doors are overrated - I've nothing against the Doors but I can't stand the Morrison Death Worship Cult. It's important to remember there are a lot of other aspects to electoral reform. I'm sure that last statement will launch some sort of flame war, so I'm going to make a hasty escape to the county fair.

SurveyUSA - 100 US Senator Approval

SurveyUSA - 100 US Senator Approval

Obama rules the planet again, +50 points.

Grassley is 16th at +34. The always more polarizing Harkin is in the middle of the pack, +16.

Conrad Burns, up for re-election, is last at -20.

Too many wannabees to list them all. Joe Biden is highest of all those mentioned; Frist and John Kerry (!) are lowest. Remember, this is just home state approval.

Nolte for Iowa: Blogging, and an interesting musical guest

Nolte for Iowa: Blogging, and an interesting musical guest

Dem state rep candidate Mark Nolte (District 89 - mostly Washington County, a chunk of Johnson, a sliver of Jefferson) is doing a bit of blogging here.

He's also having a get together in Washington on August 5 with several dance and musical guests including some picker from Des Moines name of Ed Fallon.

Kos: 2008 calendar: Edwards the HUGE winner

Daily Kos -2008 calendar: Edwards the HUGE winner

Kos looks at the schedule. But he disputes my earlier judgement that Nevada will be a popular destination for the press corps:

There is another possibility -- that everyone except for Edwards and Richardson ignores Nevada to focus on New Hampshire. The political press, which is East Coast-based, won't want to travel to Nevada when New Hampshire, and its wealth of candidates, is just a short flight away.

Without the tradition of Iowa, New Hampshire, or evern South Carolina, Nevada may simply be a casualty of indifference, with its results equally discarded.

Standing by my analysis: Flight time is a minor thing compared to the attractiveness of Vegas as a destination.

Kos ALSO assumes that New Hampshire will play by the rules. Here's his projected calendar:

Iowa (caucus): 1/14
Nevada (caucus): 1/19
NH (primary): 1/22
SC (primary): 1/29

Here's mine:

NH (unauthorized primary): 1/8
Iowa (caucus): 1/14
Nevada (caucus): 1/19
SC (primary): 1/29

January 2008 Hot Vacation Spot: Des Moines, Nashua, or Vegas?

January 2008 Hot Vacation Spot: Des Moines, Nashua, or Vegas?

Candidates and the press will love the new prominence of Nevada. Despite the widespread geography, 90% of the population is in one county. Direct, cheap flights. World class hotels. Lots of after hours entertainment and distractions for the boys on the bus crowd. Where would you rather go in January: Des Moines, Nashua, or Vegas? The Silver State might step on BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire. Look for at least one candidate (Richardson?) to adopt the Gore 88/Wes Clark Screw Iowa strategy with the Nevada twist. Placing it all on one roll of the dice, as it were.

---

SurveyUSA has the latest governor rankings. Who the hell is Jon Huntsman? Oh, Utah. Anyway he's +58% and #1. The lamest duck, Bob Taft, continues to bring up the rear of the parade at -61%, with Alaska's Frank Murkowski not much ahead. But Murkowski's running...

Vilsack's in the middle of the pack, +8, as the Register sums up his first year heading Democrats for the Leisure Class. He's not far behind Huckabee (+10). The other GOP wannabees are lower than that: Romney's dead even and Pataki is a miserable -18%, adding fuel to my theory that he's running for prez because he can't get re-elected governor.

---

Behind the Gazette firewall, a look at coping with the sex offender radius law: living at campgrounds. Can you imagine a stupider, more dangerous outcome? Can you envision a worse way to rehabilitate and reintegrate?

Not off the grid after all - some friendly neighbors have unsecured wifi...

DNC Sets Calendar

DNC Sets Calendar

National Journal:

NV's the Caucus state and SC's the primary state.

Iowa's caucus could be held on Monday, January 14th or Monday, January 21st. If the caucuses are held the 14th, Nevada caucuses on 1/19, New Hampshire holds its primary on 1/22 and South Carolina primaries on 1/29. The window for other states to hold their primaries would open 2/5.

If Iowa waits until the 21st, Nevada would meet on 1/26. New Hampshire would vote 1/29, while South Carolina would vote on Groundhog Day, 2/2. The window would still open 2/5.

Personally I prefer the 1/14 date for Iowa. I'd rather be later but having the caucus on MLK day causes hard feelings - a lot of African-American and civil rights groups plan MLK Day events - and logistical problems since public buildings that are caucus sites are often in semi-shut down mode.

Now we'll wait and see what NH does. I'll stick by my prediction: they leapfrog the calendar to January 8 or 15. It doesn't matter what NH or the DNC does. What matters is if the candidates show up for an outlaw primary. If they do, they'll be covered and NH wins. If they don't show up the DNC wins.

Aside: Organizing a caucus in NV should be interesting. Typically a caucus depends on getting out the longtime activists, and that could be tricky in the fastest growing, least rooted state in the country.

In Connecticut, Poll Shows Lamont Ahead by 10

In Connecticut, Poll Shows Lamont Ahead by 10

Not much analysis this weekend; some family time helping my brother move. I'll be off the grid a while tonight: phone on roaming, internet not set at the new place.

Political Wire reports:

"A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Ned Lamont (D) beating Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) in the Democratic primary, 51% to 41%.

Here's the stunning finding: In the general election, Lieberman and Lamont are tied with 40% with Alan Schlesinger (R) trailing behind with 13%."

Why Didn't Bill Clinton Think Of It First?

Why Didn't Bill Clinton Think Of It First?

Huckabee makes a blatant ploy for the how the hell is this guy still alive vote:

Keith Richards is set to be pardoned - for a 31-year-old driving offence in Arkansas.

The veteran guitarist was arrested in the town of Fordyce in July 1975 for reckless driving and fined $162.20.

After Richards referred to the incident during a March concert in Little Rock, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee offered to clear his record.

"I realised his impression of our state was marred by a misdemeanour traffic stop," he told news agency Reuters.

"I wanted to clear his record in Arkansas as a goodwill gesture."

Obama Comes to Iowa

Obama Comes to Iowa

Heard this through the rumor mill, now official.

"Basically, my rule has been that if I can help in the 06 cycle, then I'm going to do it,” Obama said in an interview. “The only reason not to do it would be the symbolism of Iowa, which probably wasn't a good reason for us not to help out."

Barack Obama, Harkin Steak Fry.

Obama is very smart about his superstar status. Yes, I think he'd like to be president. He's like it bad enough that he's being smart about it. He could jump in now, zip to frontrunner status, and then crash before a single vote is cast. Instead he waits and leaves us wanting more. And that's what this trip is - just a teaser. The county chairs, courthouse candidates, and midlevel donors will be there, yearning. Then when the mere mortal nominee falters, they'll remember and say "GOD I wish Obama had run!"

2008? Nah. Groundwork for the future? Yep.

Where the opinions flow with the suds

Where the opinions flow with the suds

Drinking Liberally makes today's DI. Tonight at the Mill, 8:00 to whenever. I should go one of these times...

Penny for their thoughts: Sales Tax forum

Penny for their thoughts: Sales Tax forum

I'm a no vote either way, but there's coverage in all papers this AM of last night's forum on the sales tax. The question on the table: all for schools, or share with the other governments?

Jeff Cox said Iowa City and Coralville have cost other governments tax revenue by creating tax increment financing districts for Plaza Towers and Coral Ridge Mall. This means governments such as Johnson County and the Iowa City School District do not receive about $3 million a year in taxes from those properties, he said.

'Iowa City and Coralville are raising the budgets of other communities to give subsidies to high rises and malls,' Cox said.

Rural Johnson County resident Ed Barker said the tax would not benefit low-income families, many of whom live in rental properties and would not receive property tax from cities...

'The best way to have a tax vote fail is to indicate it will be shared with other government entities...'

(Unfortunate, though, that Barker perpetuates the myth that renters don't pay property tax. We do, we just make the check out to the landlord instead of the treasurer.)

More in Gazette and DI.

In Connecticut, Lamont Grabs Lead Over Lieberman

In Connecticut, Lamont Grabs Lead Over Lieberman

I'm trying to stay in my Iowa niche and the national blogs have Connecticut carpet-covered. Still, this poll is a landmark worth sharing:

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Ned Lamont (D) has surged ahead of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and now holds a razor-thin 51% to 47% lead among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

In possible general election matchups:

Lieberman defeats Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger 68% to 15%

Lamont beats Schlesinger 45% to 22%, with 24% undecided

Running as an independent, Lieberman gets 51%, to 27% for Lamont and 9% for Schlesinger.

That last item is unfortunate - but I suspect once the reality of Traitor, Sore Loser Joe sinks in his numbers will drop. The Republicans meanwhile are trying to squeeze out their candidate and recruit a stronger contender. In fact, some were trying to recruit Lieberman, and it took him waaaay too long to deny it

Buying in: 2008 and the Dems List

Buying in: 2008 and the Dems List

The IDP offered a cut rate on their database to early buyers. So who's anted up?

Vilsack - not a shocker. Edwards and Warner - both of whom are here often enough that they may soon qualify for resident status. And the odd surprise - Dodd, who's getting his act together but hasn't been here yet.

Tom Beaumont expresses the greatest surprise that Evan didn't Bayh in (ouch and sorry).

Massachusetts U.S. Sen. John Kerry, who won the 2004 caucuses, bypassed the deal. Likewise, Delaware U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former South Dakota U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle and Wisconsin U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold turned down the offer.

Ans is this an oversight - the article doesn't even mention HRC. Not a surprise that she didn't buy in as she's committed to pretending Iowa doesn't exist until after her re-elect. But omitting her name from a list of contenders is a big oops.

The High Cost of Free Parking

The High Cost of Free Parking

The bike war has been raging on the local newsgroups for nigh unto a week now; here's another great article to add fuel to the flames.

Of all the transport systems available, including public transit, shipping, and rail, cars are unique in that terminal costs (doing something with your vehicle when the trip is finished) are offset to the rest of the economy. This 'provides a huge subsidy to motorists, and thus increases the demand for cars, parking spaces, and vehicle travel.'

Only walking, which has effectively no terminal costs, is comparable. All things being equal, most people would rather drive than walk. The problem is that all things aren't really equal; parking requirements just make it seem that way.

By breaking the relationship between use and payment, "free" parking eliminates the negative feedback that keeps the system in balance. As a result, everyone decides to drive everywhere, and the car crowds out other forms of transportation.

Grassley: No to stem cells

Grassley: No to stem cells

Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2005: A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to provide for human embryonic stem cell research. Passes 63-37.

Grassley (R-IA), Nay
Harkin (D-IA), Yea

Sets up W's first veto, as Bush chooses the Schaivo wing of the party over common sense.

NY is the Greenest City in America

NY is the Greenest City in America

Thesis of a long article:

Most Americans, including most New Yorkers, think of New York City as an ecological nightmare, a wasteland of concrete and garbage and diesel fumes and traffic jams, but in comparison with the rest of America it's a model of environmental responsibility. By the most significant measures, New York is the greenest community in the United States, and one of the greenest cities in the world. The most devastating damage humans have done to the environment has arisen from the heedless burning of fossil fuels, a category in which New Yorkers are practically prehistoric. The average Manhattanite consumes gasoline at a rate that the country as a whole hasn't matched since the mid-nineteen-twenties, when the most widely owned car in the United States was the Ford Model T. Eighty-two per cent of Manhattan residents travel to work by public transit, by bicycle, or on foot. That's ten times the rate for Americans in general, and eight times the rate for residents of Los Angeles County. New York City is more populous than all but eleven states; if it were granted statehood, it would rank 51st in per-capita energy use.

Override Over-react from Overrated

Override Over-react from Overrated

The Overrated One can barely restrain his glee at the eminent domain override. He's off the mark, but not for the usual reasons.

The analysis itself is sound - the guv was too busy with the nascent presidential campaign to pay full attention to this bill. Where Yepsen gets it wrong is thinking this is a Big Deal. Vilsack `08 is a non-starter to begin with. No one notices another dent in a $1000 Or Best Offer - Runs Good car with red duct tape on the tail lights, and this is just one more garbage bag over the window.

The thing I'm curious about is why Vilsack has invested so much of his shrinking political capital on this anyway.

Tom Beaumont has the for public consumption approved "this won't hurt a bit" quotes.

Other tidbits:

Jane Norman reports that Nussle voted with the Steve King Wing on voting rights, and Harkin praised Lieberman (boo) while pledging to back the Connecticut primary winner (yay).

Feingold in Dubuque.

Drinking Liberally makes the Gazette; expect Stepping Up to object soon.

minutes of work necessary for the avg worker to buy gas

Minutes of work necessary for the avg worker to buy gas



Too damn hot to feel inspired to write the last couple days. Upper 90s till about Wednesday, and me with no air conditioning...

Competitive House Seats: Loebsack Moving Up The Charts

Competitive House Seats: Loebsack Moving Up The Charts

Both Congressional Quarterly and Cook (lame pdf) have their House race rankings out, and both have Iowa 2 in the "Republican Favored" category. It's the lowest bracket of competitive races, but it stands apart from the vast undifferentiated wasteland of Safe. Dave Loebsack is the state's sleeper race...

Both tip sheets have Braley-Whalen in the ultraviolet-hot Toss-Up pile and Boswell-Lamberti in the Leans Dem category.

Stupid Steve King Quote of the Day

Stupid Steve King Quote of the Day

From Political Wire via The Hill:

'We could also electrify this wire with the kind of current that would not kill somebody, but it would be a discouragement for them to be fooling around with it. We do that with livestock all the time.'

- Rep. Steve King (R-IA), quoted by The Hill, equating the containment of immigrants to that of livestock.

Video here.

Denise O'Brien: Staffing Up, Blogging

Denise O'Brien: Staffing Up, Blogging

A few items landing in the in box from the Sec of Ag nominee. Denise O'Brien is blogging; thewe was a lull for a month or so after the primary but now there's an update.

O'Brien is also announcing some staffing: of most interest in Iowa City is Regenia Bailey of the city council signing on as field director.

UPDATE: And Regenia's at work; this was in the in box later:

We’ll have a meeting for those in Johnson County interested in working on Denise O’Brien’s campaign on Thursday, July 20 at La Casa at 5 p.m. Bring a friend and join us to learn how you can help elect Denise O’Brien as Iowa’s Secretary of Agriculture in November. The meeting will last no longer than 6:30.

La Casa is at 1200 Gilbert Court in Iowa City.

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Couple months ago I passed along a story in the Solon Economist. City council member (and Republican central committee member) Kevin Samek said, discussing utility payments, "If someone is going to try to jew us out of a water bill..."

Anyway, Samek finally picked up on my post last night and shoots a few nasties my way in the comments. It's all the liberal media's fault, it seems. Good to know that the Solon Economist is part of the Left Wing Conspiracy.

Tom Tauke vs. Net Neutrality

Tom Tauke vs. Net Neutrality

Via MyDD, a blast from Iowa's past: Tom Tauke, he who knocked off Mike Blouin in `78 and failed to knock off Tom Harkin in `90 (my first Iowa campaign). Anyway, here's what he's up to now:

Verizon's lobbyist Tom Tauke today called on Congress to act quickly on cable franchising legislation, warning that Congress is at a "critical pivot point" in policy and shouldn't delay action because of net neutrality questions drawn out of fear, not substance.

Meanwhile you can find Fred Grandy on morning drive time in DC.

Gronstal in IC with Bolkcom

Gronstal in IC with Bolkcom



Greetings from the Chait Art Gallery in downtown Iowa City, where Mike Gronstal is visiting at a little fundraiser for Senator Joe Bolkcom. Not sure how newsworthy this is; it’s just one of dozens of such things across the state, hundreds across the country, that make the difference between a majority and a minority. Or, in the case of the Iowa Senate, a tie.

Coincidence: Joe and Mike both used to have mustaches; both have shaved. Coincidence? Don’t know but I’m keeping mine.

We have wine and cheese in an art gallery, which is very Iowa City. No latte however, that’s across the street. Joe’s up to do the intros, thanks the food folks and the envelope stuffers first. Politicos present: Senate colleague Bob Dvorsky, Supervisors Neuzil and Sullivan, Sheriff Lonny Pulkrabek, and Janet Lyness our county attorney nominee. My state rep Vicki Lensing gets there a bit later.

Joe’s got opposition this time, first time in a while. Bolkcom’s concerned about public university support. Tough budgets recently, but with the tied senate it has helped get more education resources. But still have not been able to meet university needs; “I reject the notion that we are on a track to privatize these institutions. I fully intent to keep working for strong appropriations.”

There’s been much pressure as economy as struggled that U should play larger economic development role. True, but universities are “not an arm of the chamber of commerce. The mission is to teach our kids and do basic research,” some research may have economic application.

Predatory lending and fair credit for Iowans: we’ve ignored the two-tiered credit system where poor people are thrown to the wolves. As we’ve ignored that, it’s crept upward to the middle class with exorbitant credit card fees and bank charges. Discussed this during the John Edwards visit; one woman got jacked from 9% interest to 30% because a payment was two days late.

Now intro-ing Gronstal: “Mike has worked harder than anyone to get Dems into majority. He loves his work; he thinks he’s funny…” (Mike: “WHAT committees are you gonna serve on?”) The Senator from Johnson expresses great satisfaction with his committees.

Mike likewise praises the Johnson County delegations. Mike’s first district was 61% GOP performance. Every organized group endorsed his opponent – and Mike won. “I never take anything for granted and neither does Joe – and most of you are taking this one for granted, it’s just the truth.”

Gronstal adds: “I didn’t run to elect Democrats. I ran to change this state.” Discusses his family’s GOP banking roots and his own coming of age as a Democrat in the `60s civil rights era. I got caught up in listening to the stories rather than transcribing; if Mike is in your town he’ll fill you in.

Gronstal says Joe likes to give me credit for stopping debate on the gay marriage amendment, all Senate Dems share credit. To a person the Dem caucus is sticking together on this.

Environment – We’ll show the world how to transition to renewable fuels, discussing ethanol and wind. Also moving forward on water quality. (Missing a little - I'm still not the transcriber that O. Kay is.)

Mental health parity took 24 years to pass, we got it because of the tied senate. We have an incredible opportunity – once in a political lifetime. In 1964 Iowa Dems won the trifecta - House, Senate, Governor – and in 1965 we got community colleges. Our opportunities are as great this year if we can take advantage of them.

So… that’s the speeches! Not quite live, the wifi dropped out and I felt the need to schmooze.

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Happy birthday to my two senior cats; Butter and Spot are 9 today. They celebrated by getting way too stoned on catnip.

Bikers hassled in IC?

Bikers hassled in IC?

Donald Baxter writes:

Forgive me if this is common knowledge, but a cyclist was arrested at Critical Mass Friday before last. "Interference with official acts" is the charge and I suspect it's motivated by the Iowa City police wanting to make an example of a rider. Clearly there are traffic violations by some cyclists on this ride (including me) but drivers don't get taken to jail for traffic violations--at least not minor ones.

When the cyclist went to his arraignment the following Saturday he was told he would not be provided representation if he pleaded "not guilty." The rider is pleading not guilty and will ask for a jury trial. He has secured pro-bono representation by an Iowa City attorney. I don't really want to name names at this point because this person is not completely sure how public he wants to be. I think he's afraid that if he's too public that additonal charges might be filed. The charge, if convicted, could carry a $500 fine and up to a 30 day jail term. Is this how we think Johnson County's shortage of jail cells should be used?

If you've ever thought you wanted to come on a Critical Mass ride before, July's ride is the time to come. I'd love to see our ranks break 100 if only to teach the ICPL that we won't be intimidated. Cyclists are not blocking traffic--we ARE traffic.

DI writeup on Bayh in IC. Also: Iowa for Feingold reports: Feingold Coming to Iowa July 15 and 16: Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, and Davenport.

And the last Socialist mayor of Milwaukee has died, no doubt causing Alice Cooper great distress.

Greetings from Wisconsin

Greetings from Wisconsin



Well, we're actually back now but we stopped for cheese on the way back.

John Edwards: stop predatory lenders

John Edwards: stop predatory lenders

The Underrated One, Mike Glover, writes that John Edwards is picking up on one of Joe Bolkcom's key issues:

"John Edwards, a White House hopeful, focused on the problem of predatory lenders in his first swing through Iowa since a statewide poll gave his potential presidential campaign a boost.

'What we're doing is focusing on what can be done to stop predatory lenders and payday lenders from preying on our most vulnerable families,' said Edwards, who called for new regulations for an industry in which annual interest rates for payday loans can soar to 300 percent to 400 percent."

Also a peek behind the Gazette wall at Evan Bayh's trip.

MyDD picks up on it, too.

Road Report

Road Report



Fully in vacation mode here. Igor the giant mouse has returned to his place of honor on Highway 61 in Fennimore, Wisconsin.

Coverage of the wannabees is spotty but here's the Register's updates on Edwards and Bayh.

Busy weekend for wannabees

Busy weekend for wannabees

Register rounds up upcoming visits by Dem hopefuls. Locally, we've got two coming in for Dave Loebsack:

John Edwards Friday, 11:30 am—1:30 pm, the Blue Strawberry, 118 2nd Street, Cedar Rapids

Evan Bayh Saturday, 5:00 PM-6:30 PM Evan Bayh - Home of Jim Hayes, 1142 East Court Street, Iowa City

I'm out of town so I'm missing both. Something tells me I'll have more chances later.

The Big Idea: An Energy Tax

The Big Idea: An Energy Tax

He's more into the idea of revenue neutral than I would be but I like the main premise:

A carbon tax raises the price of using carbon-based energy, everything from coal to gasoline. As a society, we're better off if we curtail our use of fossil fuels. We can start to make progress on global warming; we will improve air quality; we will be less dependent on places like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela; and we could even improve traffic congestion, the bane of just about every metropolitan area in the U.S., by making it more expensive to commute long distances alone by car.

Have you seen the sales figures for SUVs lately? People kvetched about SUVs for a decade, but they only stopped buying the really big ones when gas got to be $3 a gallon.

And if you would have to grease the skids with offsetting cuts in other taxes, that serves my 30 mpg the couple times a week I drive, bike the rest of the time self interest... parson the smug self righteousness.

Lieberman To Start Petition Drive

Lieberman To Start Petition Drive

Joementum stabs Democrats in the back. Of course, he does that all the time:

"Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman is to announce today he will petition for a place on the November ballot as an 'independent Democrat,' (sic) giving him a chance to stay alive politically should he lose an Aug. 8 primary for the Democratic nomination.

Most other Democratic candidates already have said they would support the winner of the primary..."

So I don't want to hear ANYONE give me crap about voting for Nader-LaDuke over Gore-Lieberman ever again.

Military Announces Plan to Study Blogs

Military Announces Plan to Study Blogs

Fom TalkLeft. Scary in an SS, Seven Days In May sort of way:

"'The fact that the web is a vast source of information is sometimes overlooked by military analysts,' Kokar said. 'Our research goal is to provide the warfighter with a kind of information radar to better understand the information battlespace.'"

Especially when my traffic log includes hits every day this past week from:

Host Name host147-10.balad.iraq.centcom.mil
IP Address 214.13.147.10
Country United States
Region Ohio
City Columbus
ISP Dod Network Information Center

The second most interesting thing the traffic log has ever shown.

UPDATE: Scratch the immediate paranoia; just a regular reader of the GI variety. Besides, any real-life Colonel Flaggs would cover their tracks well enough to fool me, or at least use The Cloak, a free anonymizer that I've seen turn up recently...

But I do like that phrase "information battlespace." Glad to be fighting. I'll make a better effort to be more inflammatory (I don't support the troops) and treasonous (Bush is a weenie) in the future. Maybe the New York Times is hiring.

World Most Energy Efficient Vehicle? A Bicycle

World Most Energy Efficient Vehicle? A Bicycle

Comparing energy used per passenger-mile (calories), they found that a bicycle needed only 35 calories, whereas a car expended a whopping 1,860. Bus and trains fell about midway between, and walking still took 3 times as many calories as riding a bike the same distance.

Not to mention the bike and walk calories are from your lunch and not from fossil fuels. Not DIRECTLY, anyway. I suppose if you calculate in the calories needed to produce YOUR calories it wouldn't look quite as good - but it would still look better than that drive.

They also looked at a measurement called: ‘Persons per hour that one meter-width-equivalent right-of-way can carry’. In this case Rail scored tops with 4,000 persons, but ‘autos in mixed traffic’ still managed the worse rating with only 170 people. Bikes did pretty well, relative to cars, achieving 1,500 persons per hour.

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Yes, I'm still here. What was supposed to be a minor rearrangement of furniture turned into an 18 hour internet outage, followed by additional rearrangement and a new wifi router. Also, the heat has sapped most of my will to write - there's no AC here at Bohemian Paradise which is very green but a bit unpleasant. At least the pole beans on the Smallest Farm like it, as they've shot up above my head.

Big weekend next weekend - Edwards in Cedar Rapids, Bayh in Iowa City - and I'm missing it. My brain is on vacation mode; I'm in a stretch where I'm only working two days out of ten.