Monday, April 16, 2007

Immigrant Hunt

UI Republicans Sink To New Low

The University of Iowa College Republicans are having a Conservative Coming Out Week, and while that's funny on a number of levels (picture any one of a number of deeply closeted self-hating secretly gay preachers who've fallen in scandals) this is not funny at all:

The UI College Republicans - part of the College Republican National Committee - will host a Capture the Flag game Thursday at City Park.

The title of this game: 'Catch an Illegal Immigrant.'

Two teams - the "illegal immigrants" and the "border patrol" - will try to cross the dividing line representing the United States-Mexico border. If a team member is tagged, he or she goes to "jail."

Thursday's game is among a series of similar events on college campuses nationwide. "Catch an Illegal Immigrant Day" put the University of Michigan in the national spotlight in September 2006 when the student group Young Americans for Freedom offered a cash award for finding someone posing as an illegal immigrant.

Following protests from minority groups at Michigan, Morgan Wilkins, a contractor for the College Republican National Committee, was fired by the organization.


So not only offensive, but they've been down this road before without learning.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Zogby 2: Questions

Zogby 2: Questions

Chris Turner: Money wasted on war may move people more. Zogby: Polling shows people want out, but deeper questions reveal ambivalence. That's not to say "don't get out." There needs to be a responsible way out, but public does not trust Bush to do it. If American people understood the content of the bill House passed they'd support it. Baker-Hamilton is in there. It's bad policy just to pull out.

Shams Ghoneim: Almost taboo to mention Israel/Palestine to candidates due to polarization. How to do it?

Zogby: If you put polls of Arab and Jewish Americans side by side they look almost identical. American Jewish community is very progressive on this issue. Mutual recognition and territorial compromise: 72% of DNC delegates (`88) privately supported it. In their hearts people know what's right.

Wants to form Iowans for Middle East Peace and get caucus resolutions. If we took a simple resolution like that, we'd get thousands of endorsers. Other side could not. Only reason there's no debate is fear, and keeping it under wraps. Once you talk, you win. Candidates won't discuss it unless forced. They never discuss except at Jewish or Arab audiences. (Some inequities there) "They gave the speech, it's done." So we need to put it on the table.

Polls of Europe show Israel/Palestine conflict is #1 thing people hold against us there.

Ghoneim brings up react against Obama. Zogby notes that hundreds of people signed letter thanking Obama for expressing concern for Palestinians. The story's not over yet - that's why I'm here. And we'll get the last word in. Dean and Kerry got pummelled into submission and never talked again. One guy in Des Moines can't silence a state.

Robert Carlson: I'm an ex-foreign service officer. If Middle East comes up at all: "we ain't got a dog in that fight." Most Iowans more concerned about immigration and jobs. American people want to just pull out.

Zogby says while this may not be #1 on people's mind, we can change that dynamic. We're not asking people to do something they're opposed to - we're asking to bring out people's better instincts.

Paul Meyer: The elephant in the living room is AIPAC. They want more aid to Israel, zero for Palestine, and something on Iran. What do we do?

Zogby: AIPAC doesn't always win, or claim credit they shouldn't. It's not $ it's people's votes. People cower about the money but they need the votes. The arrogance of the DM letter: "the entire Jewish community?!? Screw him!" We didn't let it stand. We got a counter letter and got organized including Jewish peace groups. AIPAC does not do justice to Israel, even Rabin said so. All this bizarre stuff plays into anti-Semitic stereotypes. Most of Jewish community does not agree. But if there's no alternative AIPAC wins. I'm glad Obama got the question because he gave a good answer. They can isolate Dennis Kucinich - they can't isolate the Iowa voters.

Eaves-Johnson (that should be an interesting write up) discusses with Zogby the "one guy in Des Moines" vs. other reactions. Zogby notes there were other reactions. Lieberman: "It's easier to debate Jerusalem in the Knesset than the Senate." There are two distinct ways to support Israel: for peace and not for peace. And if the Jewish community can debate it, America can. Debate suppressed by fear of AIPAC; cites critique of Carter who has been called "horrific names." Zogby has been subjected to that too. Including threats to employment. That's shameful. Most Jewish people don't support these tactics. "I'm a team player in the Dems but I believe we can have a debate."

Followup from home: Things shut down rather fast as we heard a call that we had to be out of the room in five minutes. Just a little history to explain the references to 1988: that year Zogby got a resolution introduced at the national convention, but no debate or vote. He quoted Madeliene Albright a couple times as saying debating Israel/Palestine would "destroy the Democratic Party." Wile expressing undying respect for her, Zogby notes the destruction of the party did not happen.

James Zogby, Iowa City 4/15/07

James Zogby, Iowa City 4/15/07

About 50 people here at the Iowa City library for Arab-American Institute president James Zogby. Starting off with a video on the 30 year history of the organization. The video ends up with the Bachman-Turner Overdrive reference.

Newman Abuissa, my Iowa City 22 precinct captain, is introducing. Newman says it was hard in the `70s for immigrants to become active and AAI was his yay in. He sees his role as bridging the gap between Arab and American culture. Newman was a national delegate in `04.

Zogby is on. AAI is proud of its history - but Zogby is depressed because the debate has gotten worse. The debate has been shut down and the consequences are real - not only to the middle east but to America.

We are better than our polices, and I don't believe we can be proud of the mess we've made. Not one leader or one party has made this mess - it's a history of bad decisions. Al Quada has grown way beyond what it was before 9/11, had sprung up many places - including Iraq (where it wasn't before), now playing the role Afghanistan once did. More Iraqis dying now than before surge, beyond Baghdad.

Afghanistan could have been solved, but resourced diverted to Iraq. Has reverted into anarcho-state with Taliban re-emerging and attacks up.

News from Israel-Palestine is horrifying. "Worse than Soweto" said Ron Brown. Gaza most densely populated area on earth. No work on infrastructure during occupation. A million people had no paved roads, lakes of sewage. Two weeks ago five people died in a sewage flood. Why? Israelis refused to allow construction materials in.

If we don't do something about the failed policy it will not change. The way out is there, but hard to see. I could have given this same talk in 1988, but I could have been optimistic then. Not now. When the hole gets this deep it's tough to get out. Candidates have to face hard truths.

Iraq is not gonna get better any time soon. Two time bombs: 1) civil war - We could go from thousands dying to HUNDREDS of thousands. Lebanon exploded within two weeks. It could happen. Second time bomb is ticking here with American patience getting thin. If the debate is nothing more than surge vs. set date to get out, that's simplistic and indecent.

Story leading to "this is our baby." We are responsible, we did this. Walking away is no better than going in was in the first place. A candidate who says "it's not our job" is as cold as Bush. Baker-Hamilton set a path: we have to leave but we have to prepare the political ground.

We have to make this part of the debate. "We gotta leave" is a cheap applause line. Don't let a candidate get away with it. We need an answer. And maybe America can't be par of the solution but we need to help prepare.

Using phrases like "I have to be honest with you" a lot.

I stopped doing TV a long time ago because they put me up against "experts who aren't." Where are the teach-ins on Iraq? How can we remake a country whose history we don't know? We don't even know how they see us.

We have to pay a price and we have to know what we're doing. If we can't ADMIT what we did there's no way out.

Israel-Palestine: AAI was hopeful in `88, as late as `96. It was not as tough 12, even 6 years ago. The damage done has been enormous. While peace was on agenda in Clinton years, West Bank settlements doubled. And the wall is insidious because of what it does. It creates all these little pockets, miles in, cutting Palestinian villages off. It's making an unbearable life even worse. Has literally destroyed the physical structure of Palestinian daily life. There's nothing left to declare a "state." Cut up into little pieces.

Terrorism has hardened Israeli attitude. The leaders say there's no solution, "they're genetically coded to hate us." Gaza unemployment (under age 30) is 80%. Means no hope, no opportunity. Means life is over. Death has replaced honor. Suicide bombers are a symptom of a sick society - killing yourself looks like a real option. There's no job, no college, no way to start a family, no income. 3/4 on UN food relief, while Israel per capita income is $17,000. Palestine = 80% on 50 cents a day. That would mean a civil war here.

Fear won't end overnight - neither will cult of death. Will take time and leadership - and we've had no leadership. Asymmetries of compassion and pressure. Israel gets compassion, Palestine gets pressure. Spoiled children on one side, abused children on the other. And it can. get. worse.

This conflict, combined with Iraq, has done enormous damage to US in Middle east. Our policies have hurt us. It's now about US. Middle Easterners like Americans. It's not that America's stuff is better - it's that people like our culture. Germans and Japanese and Chinese export products, we export a way of life.e

"It's not that we don't like you - it's that we feel you have no respect for us." We've treated them badly. Palestine and Iraq are central to our relationship to the whole region. We are ignorant of history and culture, but with effort we can figure out WHY Iraq and Palestine are so important.

We're ready for enormous change. People in US want change, we just don't know what to think. The question for which Obama was bashed is incredibly important. This election process needs to be about ideas. And Iowans have the ability to shape the debate. Iowans get to do what the rest of America wants to do - ask the questions. Make the candidates understand that the opinion is out there that we need a different direction.

The people playing "who loves Israel more" aren't helping make Israel safe. If you care about Israel, you need to make a lasting peace. But candidates won't care unless they think there are votes in it. And they don't know that there are votes in it. Asking the questions empowers the candidates to change the policy.

We need to deal with Israel/Palestine in a creative way that creates real reconciliation. The only way to defeat extremism is to remove the conditions that create it.

When you go into cultures you don't understand, be very careful.

There are opportunities. Americans want to leave Iraq, but leave responsibly. Baker-Hamilton is a thoughtful way out. Israel-Palestine: 3/4 of Americans want US to be even-handed. You Iowans need to be vocal and insistent. Every Iowan who asks a question speaks for tens of thousands.

Zogby preview

Zogby: Push candidates on Middle East issues

A preview of tonight's talk by Arab American Institute president James Zogby:
'This is about what America needs to happen. And until we take that kind of attitude and see that this is us, this is not Israel, this is not Palestine, this is what America needs,' Zogby said. 'If you look at the end of Vietnam until now, we've sent more money, sent more weapons, fought more wars ... and yet, we can't even have a debate about it in a presidential election.'

6:00 tonight, Iowa City library.

GOP dinner

Don't Mention The War



John McCain as Basil Fawlty:

With one glaring exception, the field of Republican presidential candidates who spoke at a forum in Des Moines on Saturday that effectively launched the campaign for the 2008 Iowa caucuses tiptoed around the biggest issue facing the country.

U.S. Sen. John McCain was the lone candidate among the nine to give full-throated support to President Bush's effort to turn the tide in Iraq.


The Real Register Political Reporter Tom Beaumont is the only one to take that lead; the Overrated One went with a Crown Underwhlmed angle.

Other coverage:

  • Iowa Politics has audio of all speeches. I'm not up for that this morning but a nice public service. Also nice writeups of everyone. Except of course Duncan Hunter who was stranded (not) in Iowa.

  • Gazette pulls out a couple plums. Almost everyone picked up on:
    ``Rudy McRomney is not a conservative and he knows he's not a conservative,'' former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore said...

    but no one else noted:
    Gilmore said, drawing a murmur of boos.

    And they pull out
    Illegal immigration is out of control, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo said, and offered a three-word solution: ``Enforce the law.''

  • Mike Glover, the underrated one, offers this red meat:
    Brownback used props, displaying a massive copy of the nation's tax code and saying "this should be taken behind the barn and killed with a dull ax."

    Seriously, I swear, I'm going to get out to a GOP event soon.
  • Don Ho, Don Imus

    Don Ho, Don Imus and The Return Of Tipper Gore

    Don Ho, Hawaiian 'Tiny Bubbles' crooner, dies

    Distraught and afraid that his name could never be said on the radio again.

    Was that tasteless? Or funny? Or both? Or neither?

    In the aftermath of Don Imus, there are so many layers that I can't address them all. Here's my facet:

    Freedom of speech does not guarantee you a cushy job, as Imus learned the hard way. But all this talk of "let's go after the rap lyrics next" is sounding all too familiar to someone who's old enough to remember the PMRC Wars of the `80s. All this discussion of how some words should be unacceptable smacks of censorship.

    Even lefty blogging giant, TalkLeft normally a great civil libertarian, writes:
    To call this a free speech issue is a joke. We're supposed to worry about the freedom to tell racist and sexist jokes?

    Yes we are, yes we are. And we're supposed to worry about Illinois Nazis and pornographers and flag burners too.

    When did banning words and ideas in the name of PC-ness become a "left" doctrine?

    The civil libertarian left rightly rejects the national security state argument that we must give up freedom, privacy and the presumption of innocence to "protect" us from terrorism. Yet the same people want words and ideas banned or restricted because they think it will advance their goal of greater tolerance. A true Alanis moment.

    And while this is less a free speech issue than a corporate speech issue, too many progressives are rushing to ban, ban, ban, in the Newspeak hope that eliminating the words will eliminate the ideas.

    They've got it wrong; ban the F word and people will still talk about sex, ban the S word and people will still go to the bathroom. Banning the N word and its variants will not ban racism, and banning the H word or the W word however you want to spell it will not eliminate sexism.

    Tangent: I hate when people try to discuss this without using the actual words. The ridiculous construct "The N Word" sounds like a small child tattling on a cussing classmate: "Timmy said the F word!" Or wizards saying He Who Must Not Be Named, who forget Dumbledore's advice that fear of a name creates fear of the thing itself. Especially ridiculous coming from academics and "serious" commentators. We've all heard it; we're not calling anybody it; we're discussing racism, sexism and language. The brave wizards say the real name. Nigger. Ho. Voldemort. I feel more free now. And that's not a joke.

    Indeed, in certain contexts, the use of "inappropriate" language in popular culture can expose the attitudes and advance the cause better and with more real-world impact than a delicately worded dissertation: witness Borat.

    The best way to defeat a bad idea is to shine light on it and expose it. To that extent, the very fact that Imus said "Nappy Headed Ho", in a very public forum, set his ideas up for rejection. Hiding bad ideas in the dark allows them to grow and flourish, with the lure of the forbidden, just like hiding certain forbidden words as N words and F words makes them more appealing. If progressives cede the defense of the marketplace of ideas to conservatives and libertarians, and prefer to win through intimidation, it discredits our own ideas.

    Friday, April 13, 2007

    Obama in Iowa City

    Obama. Iowa City. Sunday 4/22.

    When: Earth Day, Sunday, April 22 – Doors open at 11:45 AM, Program begins at 12:45 PM

    Where: University of Iowa, The Pentacrest, Intersection of Clinton and Iowa, Iowa City, IA

    Civil Rights Bill

    Johnson County LBG Community Wants Dems To Keep Their Word

    Iowa City's Janelle Rettig challenges Pat Murphy and the House leadership:

    For years we have been told that the Democratic Party supports equality for gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered people. Now after we've been loyal voters, financial contributors and given our sweat equity, the party leadership (as they received power) has abandoned GLBT people.

    There is trouble in Des Moines with the State Civil Rights bill adding sexual orientation and gender identity. The Senate has already passed the bill with bipartisan support, but the House Democratic Speaker Pat Murphy now says he can't pass the bill in the house -- that he doesn't have enough Democratic support. I would suggest the problem might actually be with Pat Murphy's own problems with the issue.

    You might recall that the Democratic Party of Iowa and of Johnson County have strong platform planks supporting civil rights for GLBT people. You might also know that Johnson County provides a lot of Democratic votes for anyone running for office in our County (i.e., Chet Culver, Tom Harkin, Dave Loebsack, County offices, state legislature, etc.). Furthermore Johnson County provides a lot of financial support, volunteer time, and enthusiasm for Democratic candidates throughout the state.

    The Democrats are firmly in control of the legislature and the governership. Make no mistake about it if the party leaders, the legislative leaders and the governor actually demanded this bill, it could be passed.

    It's time we stand together for something vitally important and at the heart of what the party supposedly stands for. Do we really need to continue to support a party that can't even use the majority to state that all Iowans should be free from discrimination and be allowed to work, live, attend school, bank, or even eat in Iowa? It's time for some leadership and accountability and let's talk about it tomorrow.


    That conversation tomorrow:

    GLBTA Emergency Summit on Civil Rights
    Saturday, April 14 at 10:30 AM
    Java Juice
    122 E Washington St., (across from the postal station downtown) Iowa City
    All are welcome, allies are coveted.


    A couple of my own thoughts:

    I was worried when we got a leadership team of Pat Murphy, whose Dubuque background skews his radar to the right on social issues, and Lieberman fan Kevin McCarthy that the social issues would be shoved aside. Leadership has shown they'll push it to the limit on fair share; where's the push for civil rights?
    We're not talking marriage here (though that would be nice.) We're talking basic simple apple pie non-discrimination.

    Updated:

    A nice diary on Kos the other night likens the Democrats to the lyric of the Replacements' classic, "Bastards Of Young":

    The ones who love us best are the ones we'll lay to rest
    And visit their graves on holidays at best
    The ones who love us least are the ones we'll die to please
    If it's any consolation, I don't begin to understand them


    The Dems have been dying to please social conservatives, who aren't going to vote for us anyway, for close to 30 years. Time to dance with those who brung ya.

    Aside: "Bastards Of Young" is the Best. Video. Ever.

    Winner: Culver

    Winner: Culver



    Lundby and the Republicans blink first:
    The confirmation of three appointees to the state Board of Regents was in jeopardy until Republican senators on Thursday agreed to support them in exchange for written assurances from Culver, a Democrat, that the next person he names to the high-profile board will be from western Iowa.

    That opportunity will come in 2009 when the terms of three regents expire - or sooner if there is a resignation.

    The Senate math looks good enough that in `08 the Dems may pick up the four seats they need to make the GOP irrelevant to the confirmation process. Also, by that time the four new Regents will leave their mark on the process, the coaching controversies will settle down, and the UI might even have a president.

    Republicans overplayed a hand that was weak to begin with, not even so much on these nominations but on Gene Meyer’s appointment to lead the Iowa Department of Public Safety. They ate their own on that one, and West Des Moines Republicans were up in arms at the rejection of their popular ex-mayor. Todd Dorman at the QC Times writes at some length about this.

    And yes, I called it wrong. That was based on the line-in-the-sand posturing of the initial rhetoric. So they madde two mistakes: they staked too much on this, and then once they had done so they backed down too easy and settled for an IOU.

    Loser: Kucinich

    Loser: Kucinich

    iPol dines with Dennis and finds him "utterly unfit for the office of President of the United States." A must-read from one of the hotter newer blogs on the Iowa scene.

    KCCI and the Gazette have more "objective" but less enlightening coverage.

    Libertarian Convention

    It Doesn't Specify Which Picnic Table

    The Libertarian Party of Iowa annual convention will be held on Saturday, April 14 from 10:00 a.m. until 4:00 p.m. Location: The North Ridge Pavilion in Coralville, IA.

    Which reminds me: still no news on that voter registration lawsuit. At last report, back in December, the state was looking to settle and just let folks have their G's and L's on their voter cards.

    Thursday, April 12, 2007

    Ron Paul

    Ron Paul Largely Ignored

    Zero coverage of Ron Paul's on-campus appearance yesterday. Even the Johnson County GOP doesn't list this sitting Republican Congressman on their candidate's page, though they include John Cox who Politics1 lists with the also-rans like Saint Michael Jesus Archangel (R-Michigan).

    The Gazette editorial board met with Paul earlier yesterday. He zoomed in on the usual don't-tax-don't-spend stuff that big-L and small-l libertarians love, but also had a solid war policy:
    Paul strongly opposes the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. ``I would just come home. We made a mistake. We went in there under false pretenses. It's sad. It was not worth 3,300 American lives and 25,000 casualties. We need to change course. We're continuing to do the same thing -- send more troops. Just back off. You don't need any money for that.''

    Speaking of largely ignored, Dennis Kookcinich is in state today. Closed sessions with state legislators, followed by the Jasper County Central Committee tonight.

    Vonnegut and the Village

    Vonnegut and the Village

    Kurt Vonnegut's death is everywhere this morning, but the Daily Iowan is the only one to mention the Iowa Writer's Workshop. (The P-C completely misses the passing of the Workshop's most famous alum.)

    My rather eccentric apartment complex is still known around town as "the Vonnegut house" as he lived here in his Iowa City days. Nick Johnson spent part of his youth here, looking for Underground Railroad tracks. Allegedly there are ghosts here too though I've never had the pleasure. Perhaps today there's one more.

    However, after 4 1/2 years of living like a college student it's time for me to graduate, and the newsroom and world headquarters of John Deeth Blog will be moving across town in August. The Smallest Farm will no longer be the smallest as of 2008.

    The 2007 Smallest Farm is weathering the snowfall fairly well. Non-gardeners tend not to know, but peas handle cold very well, and they're now about 1 1/2 inches tall.

    Wednesday, April 11, 2007

    Yum, crow

    Worst. Prediction. In the World.

    Me yesterday:

    The Iowa wingers hate Bonnie Campbell about the same way the national noise machine hates Hillary Clinton, and for many of the same reasons. Plus she's the appointee closest to the Culver inner political circle, so that sends the strongest message. "Doctor from Western Iowa" can be freely translated as "not Bonnie Campbell."


    Today: Senate confirms Campbell as Regent, 46-4. I was right about the winger part, though, as David Hartsuch had to get his shots in about how much Bonnie hates The Jesus.

    Best quote, Bob Dvorsky: “If Bonnie Campbell had gone down it would have been an all-out war."

    So, then, who's the target of Mary Lundby's game of Sink The Regent? Not Farm Bureau Guy, and not the other Republican-evn Lundby notes "he's from my district." That leaves:

  • David Miles, chief financial officer of Countryside Renewable Energy Inc. and a West Des Moines Democrat.

    Renewable energy? Cartman says that's all a bunch of tree huggin' hippie crap.
  • Ron Paul in Iowa City today

    Ron Paul in Iowa City today

    Can't make it but here's the details:

    Ron Paul Lecture, "Restoring The Constitution"*
    2:00 p.m., Wednesday, April 11, 2007
    Main Library 3083, University of Iowa Campus
    Iowa City, IA
    Sponsored by University of Iowa College Republicans
    Public Invited

    Nolte: No 2008 Run

    Nolte: No 2008 Run In House 89

    In an email to supporters last night, 2006 Iowa House candidate Mark Nolte announces he's not running again in `08, citing family time needs - and taking a little shot at the IDP:
    It was very disheartening to me to learn that the party leadership is only supportive of candidates who are willing to accept special interest money and who serve to feed the larger machine. I didn’t get into this to be a fund raiser, I got into this to serve my state and spread the message that special interest groups are stealing our democracy. As I think back on all the events, the countless doors knocked and the conversations with so many great Iowans, I know it made a difference. Right now I can be of the most benefit on the outside; helping to spread the message and gain the public support we need to take our government back. I will have my political career and continue fighting for the things I believe in to improve our state and country, but it is going to have to wait a bit.


    So Dems seek a candidate in House District 89 (map, .pdf), now open with Sandy Greiner's long overdue retirement. About 70 percent of the district is Washington County, plus a sliver of Jefferson and a chunk of southern/western Johnson including Hills and Lone Tree.

    Mark was a great shoe leather candidate, scoring 44% against Greiner on a shoestring budget of about $13,000. That's six points better, on 1/3 as much money, in a more Republican district, than the other challenger in a Johnson County district, Clara Oleson (who reportedly is also not running again). Here's hoping we see more of Mark when the kids are a little older.

    What If They Win Part 2: Republicans

    What If They Win Part 2: The Republicans

    A little more snarkiness today as we look at what happened if the presidential contenders become president or VP.

    Unlike the Democrats, more of the GOP contenders – Rudy, Romney, the Thompson Twins, and Newt if he gets in – are out of a job.

    Then there’s the ease-out scenario with ex-governor Mike Huckabee. Performing poorly in national fundraising, The Biggest Loser is being urged to instead challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in 2008. The Arkansas filing deadline is in April for a May primary.

    The two sitting senators, McCain and Brownback, were both re-elected in 2004, and both would be replaced by Democratic governors for two years, with the full terms on the ballot in 2010. But in Arizona, there’s a catch: Governor Napolitano is required to name a Republican to fill the McCain vacancy. So here’s a fun parlor game: how do you appoint the weakest possible candidate for the other party? Arizona has two great contenders in former governors Evan Meacham (impeached) and Fife Symington (convicted and removed from office).

    If Brownback moves up, we’d see the first Democratic Senator from Kansas since the New Deal era. This is as good a place as any to remember the Bob Dole scenario. He resigned from the Senate after clinching the `96 nomination. The GOP governor appointed Lt. Gov. Sheila Frahm to the seat and she was immediately knocked off in the primary – by Sam Brownback – in one of the early battles of the eternal Kansas GOP in-fight.

    Of the GOP House members running, Duncan Hunter has already announced his retirement. Tom Tancredo has a May filing deadline for Colorado’s August primary.

    The interesting one is Ron Paul. Texas lets you run for both, and that was used as recently as 1996. Phil Gramm crashed and burned early in the presidential race, but Texas has a January filing deadline, one of the earliest in the nation, for a March primary. Gramm was safely filed for the backup plan and won one last Senate term.

    The really interesting part is if Paul gets the Libertarian nomination. Ballot Access News reports that the LP has already qualified for the Texas presidential ballot. But: Paul can't run for two offices using different party labels. So, barring the unlikely event that he wins the GOP nomination, he has to choose between re-election as a Republican and teh Libertarian presidential nomination.

    Speaking of Barr-ing and the Libertarians, anyone think former Republican impeacher, now turned Libertarian, Bob Barr is going to run?

    Tuesday, April 10, 2007

    What If They Win Part 1: The Democrats

    What If They Win Part 1: The Democrats

    This is not a policy analysis, it's an inside-inside baseball election geek post: What will happen if a presidential candidate who’s in mid-term gets elected president or VP?

    In some cases this is going to require some suspension of disbelief and snarkiness. But remember, today's also-ran could well be next summer's running mate, and with the Senate dead even these details could affect running mate choices.

    The important things to look at are:

    1. Filing deadlines. How late can you get out of the presidential race and settle for re-election?
    2. Gubernatorial control. If you’re a Senator, do you have a governor of the same party, and can she or he appoint a replacement? Also: Is the special election immediate or with the next general election?
    3. Having it both ways: Can you do what LBJ, Lloyd Bentsen, and Joementum did, and run for re-election and Vice President at the same time?

    Part 1: The Democrats

    Of the leading Dems, only John Edwards is currently out of office. He would have been able to run both for VP and re-election in 2004, but didn’t.

    Hillary Clinton: Re-elected 2006. Democratic Governor Spitzer appoints replacement. Assuming she resigns after 1/1/09, the seat goes on the ballot in 2010 for a two year term. (Thanks: NY Sec of State’s Office)

    Barack Obama: Elected 2004. Democratic Governor Blagojevich appoints replacement who runs in 2010 for full term.

    Chris Dodd: Re-elected 2004. Dodd has already announced a 2010 retirement, assuming he is not elected president or VP. If he is, Republican Governor Rell would appoint a replacement, with the full term on the ballot in `10. Connecticut had a GOP governor in 2000 too, and the Dems could have won the presidency yet seen the GOP take over the Senate seat despite Lieberman getting re-elected (he ran for both). Actually, now that I think of it, both those things in fact happened.

    Joe Biden: Term expires 2008. The office of the Delaware Secretary of State tells me:

    Delaware's 2008 primary will be held Sept 9, 2008 for candidates that file by 12 noon July 25,2008. Delaware does not prohibit running for two offices during the same election.


    Bill Richardson, the only sitting governor on either side, was re-elected in 2006. If Richardson were elected Lt. Gov. Diane Denish would assume office. She’s a Democrat, as the governor and lieutenant governor run as a team. But the lieutenant governor runs in a primary and isn’t hand-picked by the gubernatorial nominee as in Iowa. (Technically, the state party convention nominates the Iowa Lite Guv, but c’mon.) She’s already announced for Governor in 2010, as Richardson is term-limited.

    There were some reports in the New Mexico press late in 2005 where Denish said Richardson was a little too touch-feely, then she back-pedaled a bit. The same stories also say “they’ve been allies 20 years.” From the context it sounds not so much like a pervy harrassment thing because he touches everybody, men and women. Not having met him yet, he sounds like a guy without a space bubble, the way Lyndon Johnson used to physically cajole people.

    Dennis Kucinich has a February filing deadline for a May House primary. He ran for re-election in 2004 while still seeking the presidency. His only primary season win was when he was re-nominated for the House on the same day he lost the Ohio presidential primary.

    Snarkiness back on for a tangent: Kooky may be vulnerable to a primary challenge. The district was held by Republican Martin Hoke under odd circumstances for two terms. (Hoke knocked off incumbent Mary Rose Oakar, one of the worst offenders in the House check bouncing scandal, in 1992. Then he held on in ‘94 because it was ‘94.)

    Cleveland is carefully gerrymandered into Stephanie Tubbs-Jones’ black majority district and into what even Kookcinich calls his own “polka-kielbasa-bowling” district. His policies aren’t the problem as much as his New Agey persona. Peace can sell in a working class district, ask Jack Murtha for details, but meditation is a non-starter. If I were a lunch-bucket Cleveland Democrat I’d be taking a look, and Dennis needs to tend his home fires.

    Coming soon, after I get a couple e-mails back: The GOP.

    Because They Can: Republicans and Regent Bonnie Campbell

    Because They Can: Republicans and Regent Bonnie Campbell

    Why are Mary Lundby and the Senate Republicans drawing a line in the sand on the regents appointments?

    There's an old joke with the punchline "because they can."

    For those not yet tunes in, here's the summary with assists from the Register, Gazette and AP. Governor Culver just named four new regents to the nine member board. Required 2/3 Senate approval.

    The Republicans have gone from a brief trifecta in the last two years of the Branstad era to a two-fecta through the Vilsack years to the no-fecta they now have. Gubernatorial appointments are one of the only things that requires a supermajority, so it's the only thing they can win on without picking off some Democrats.

    So what's the other motivation?

    "We will insist that we have a western Iowa regent," Lundby said, preferably someone who is a physician.

    Should Culver decline to address their concerns by withdrawing at least one of his regent nominees, Lundby said "then we would determine which ones we would take down."


    The geography thing and doctor thing are cover. Let's look at the names:

  • David Miles, chief financial officer of Countryside Renewable Energy Inc. and a West Des Moines Democrat
  • Jack Evans, president of a private philanthropic corporation and a Cedar Rapids Republican
  • Craig Lang, a farmer who is president of the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation and a Brooklyn Republican
  • Bonnie Campbell, a former Iowa attorney general and 1994 Democratic gubernatorial candidate from Des Moines


  • Which name stands out as a target on that list? If you said "uh... the Farm Bureau guy" you're really funny.

    Now, I've never been a huge Bonnie Campbell fan; her stab in the back in `94 to the gay-lesbian community is a wound that never healed for a lot of folks, and I still hear about it. It injured not just her campaign but the entire relationship between the LBG community and the Democratic Party. (Aside to Pat and Kevin: where's that non-discrimination bill, o third leg of the trifecta?) And that 1994 campaign was one of the worst I've ever been involved in, byassing the field work that makes Iowa Dems win for a bunch of really bad ads that fought the election on Terry Branstad's turf.

    But she's been an important player before and since in non-candidate roles and the Regents are a good fit. She'd be a federal judge now if the Senate hadn't held up her appointment for close to two years at the end of the Clinton era out of spite.

    The Iowa wingers hate Bonnie Campbell about the same way the national noise machine hates Hillary Clinton, and for many of the same reasons. Plus she's the appointee closest to the Culver inner political circle, so that sends the strongest message. "Doctor from Western Iowa" can be freely translated as "not Bonnie Campbell."

    Monday, April 09, 2007

    James Zogby in Iowa City Sunday 4/15

    James Zogby in Iowa City Sunday 4/15

    Dr. James J. Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute, is touring Iowa next weekend. A couple Cedar Rapids stops Saturday (for the uninitiated: CR has a long-established Arab community and one of the oldest mosques in the United States) and an Iowa City talk Sunday night.


    Lecture 6:00 pm (Free and open to the public)
    Iowa City Public Library, Room A (123 S Linn St, Iowa City, 52240)

    The Iowa City event will start at 5:30 pm with a cello performance by Tareq Abuissa. The outside doors to the library are locked at 6 pm, so please arrive early.


    Zogby has a guest piece in today's Press-Citizen centered around the recent dustup when Obama dared say things are kinda rough for the Palestinians:
    Other than his expression of some real concern of the suffering of the Palestinians, Obama's observations weren't novel, nor inconsistent with U.S. policy. But the remark about Palestinian suffering prompted some hard-line supporters of Israel to demand a clarification.

    I think this was an effort to teach a lesson to Obama -- much as had been done in 2004 when Howard Dean called for a more balanced U.S. role in peacekeeping, and when John Kerry criticized Israel's West Bank wall. The intent was to shut off debate by making it clear that this issue was off limits.

    My experience exactly.




    While I'm pressing hot buttons:

  • This one's for all the same day registration foes who cry about fraud in Wisconsin `04: They made it all up.
  • And immigrants stand up for themselves:
    Many were angry about a White House plan that would grant illegal immigrants work visas but require them to return home to apply for U.S. residency and pay a $10,000 fine.

    "Charging that much, Bush is going to be even more expensive than the coyotes," said protester Armando Garcia, 50, referring to smugglers who transport people across the Mexican border.


    Insert another chorus of my four year old buddy singing "The Immigrant Song": AhhhAAAAAH Ahhhhhh - AH! AhhhAAAAAH Ahhhhhh - AH!