Recycled Milk Cartons : The Law of 14 in 2012

When I was growing up in the era of three TV stations, summer was rerun season. And political cycles have a season-like symmetry. So I'll dust off one of my pet pieces from four years ago and give it an update.

In 2003, writing in Reason, Jonathan Rausch proposed the "Law of 14":

With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president.

Rausch defines "major office" as a Congressional seat, governor, or big city mayor. "The rule is a maximum, not a minimum. Generals and other famous personages can go straight to the top. But if a politician first runs for some other major office, the 14-year clock starts ticking."

Foreign service officers and the higher ranks of the military have "up or out" rules: you either get promoted in a certain time frame or you're done. Maybe that's an unwritten political rule as well. Four years ago, Joe Biden was touting his "ears of experience," but they turned out to be cartons of milk that had long since expired.

The Rule of 14 doesn't keep you from getting nominated, it just keeps you from getting elected. Look first at the elected presidents (each milk is two years):

President	First Major Office	Year	Shelf life
Obama	Senate	2004	4	🥛🥛
Bush 43	Governor	1994	6	🥛🥛🥛
Clinton	Governor	1978	14	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Bush 41	House	1966	14 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Reagan	Governor	1966	14	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Carter	Governor	1970	6	🥛🥛🥛
Nixon	House	1946	6 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛
Kennedy	House	1946	14	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Johnson	House	1937	23 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Eisenhower	President	1952	0	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Truman	Senator	1934	10 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Roosevelt	Governor	1928	4	🥛🥛
Hoover	Cabinet	1921	8	🥛🥛🥛🥛
Coolidge	Governor	1918	2 (to VP)	🥛
Harding	Senator	1914	6	🥛🥛🥛
Wilson	Governor	1910	2	🥛
Taft	Cabinet	1904	4	🥛🥛
T. Roosevelt	Governor	1898	2 (to VP)	🥛

(In a variation on Rausch's rule, I included cabinet posts for Taft and Hoover. Their first elected office was the Presidency. Either way they're under 14.)

Even the one exception reinforces the rule. LBJ lost the 1960 nomination to fresher face JFK, then got the vice presidency as a consolation prize because they needed to win Texas really, really bad.

Where's Gerald Ford on our roll call? The Rule of 14 is about getting elected president, not about becoming president. So Ford's on the list of losers.

Loser	First Major Office	Year	Shelf life
McCain	House	1982	26	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Kerry	Senate	1984	20	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛
Gore	House	1976	16	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛
Dole	House	1960	26	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Dukakis	Governor	1974	14	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Mondale	Senate	1964	12 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Ford	House	1948	27 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
McGovern	House	1956	16	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛
Humphrey	Senate	1948	16 (to VP)	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛
	Mayor	1945	19 (to VP)

How does this play out for the 2012 GOP field, announced and potential? We've got two never-electeds, Herman Cain and Fred Karger.  Rausch would probably exclude Alabama Supreme Court as a "major" office, but if you want to count it, Roy Moore won that election in 2000. Most of the leading contenders are in the 6 to 12 year range (though Thaddeus McCotter is kind of a ringer in that group.)

Candidate	First Major Office	Year	Shelf life
Cain	none	-	0
Karger	none	-	0
Moore	none	-	0
Palin	Governor	2006	6	½ ½ ½
Bachmann	House	2006	6	🥛🥛🥛
Huntsman	Governor	2004	8	🥛🥛🥛🥛
Romney	Governor	2002	10	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Pawlenty	Governor	2002	10	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
McCotter	House	2002	10	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Perry	Governor	2000	12	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛
Johnson	Governor	1994	18	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛
Giuliani	Mayor	1993	19	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛
Santorum	House	1990	22	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛
Roemer	House	1980	32	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛
Gingrich	House	1978	34	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛
Paul	House	1976	36	🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛🥛 🥛🥛🥛🥛

Despite his relatively young age (53), Rick Santorum has been around forever, winning his first of two house terms in 1990 before moving to the Senate in 1994. Buddy Roemer hasn't won an election since 1987, when he was a Democrat. And for all the anti-government rhetoric, Ron Paul has been on the political scene longer than any of them. His three non-consecutive stints in the House date back to a 1976 special election win.

The question of how to count Rick Perry is a test of the theory. He was first elected governor in 2002, but he became governor in late 2000 when he took over for Bush 43. If you date his freshness from when he became governor, this is his last shot and he's stale by 2016.

Hanusa Stays Put In Pair-Up

Hanusa Stays Put In Council Bluffs Pair-Up

Half an answer in Council Bluffs as first term Republican Mary Ann Hanusa announces she's running for re-election in House District 16.

Hanusa is paired up with fellow GOP freshman Mark Brandenburg, who hasn't announced his plans:

Hanusa's decision means Brandenburg, should he decide to seek re-election, would either have to face Hanusa in a Republican primary next year or move into the other Council Bluffs district, newly formed District 15.

"It's a serious decision," Brandenburg said. "It's not that easy. We've been here for 12 years."

House 16 is the southern and more Republican (reg edge +228 as of April) of the two seats, though still swingy. House 15 has no incumbent and is a Democratic (+2100) seat containing all the city's best Democratic precincts. (The city's split last decade was more of an east-west.)

Hanusa, a White House staffer under Bush 43, was the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006. She beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans when party switcher Doug Struyk retired. Brandenburg knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100, and had some health issues during the session.

Brandenburg and Hanusa both voted against The Map, Officially because it moved Pottawattamie County out of Steve King's district and into what became the Boswell-Latham mashup.

I'd speculated that one of the two might make the run against Mike Gronstal, which Brandenburg did unsuccessfully in 2008. But PottCo Republicans have recruited Al Ringgenberg instead, even going so far as to make an endorsement nearly a year before the primary.

Ex-King Intern Explores House Race

Ex-King Intern Explores House Race

A "potential candidate" is out and about in no-incumbent Iowa House District 2: law student and young Republican Megan Hess of Spencer.

Hess showed up at a Clay County GOP dinner alongside presidential candidate Thaddeus "who?" McCotter and several state and local Republicans: "Iowa Republican Central Committee Chairman Matt Strawn, Iowa Ag Secretary Bill Northey, State Senator David Johnson of Ocheydan, State Representative Royd Chambers of Sheldon, and Clay County Supervisor Del Brockshaus."

The Spencer native expects to graduate next spring from William Mitchell law school in the Twin Cities. (Which could be problematic if there's a primary.) She's also spent time interning for Steve King.

This empty seat is all of Clay and Palo Alto, with the southern third of Dickinson thrown in. It's made out of pieces of Okoboji Republican Jeff Smith and Estherville Democrat John Wittneben's old seats. House 2 is a Republican seat, true, with a registration edge of 1152. But it's a veritable People's Republic compared to other northwest Iowa seats. Jack Kibbie's base is in Palo Alto, and Marcy Frevert lasted a long time before she retired and handed off to Wittneben last year.

Reading some tea leaves here: With a candidate in this district and with Royd Chambers at the same event as Hess, we can guess that Chambers isn't moving out of House District 3, where he's paired up with fellow Republican Dan Huseman. Back when I wrote up that seat in a very early District Of The Day I was guessing there could be a primary. But turns out Chambers and Huseman are good friends and roommates during session. That, and Huseman missing a big chunk of session after an April heart attack, leads me to predict a retirement instead.

Fallon and Libertarians Gaming The Caucuses

Fallon and Libertarians Gaming The Caucuses

I'm not one of those Democrats who'll mindlessly bash Ed Fallon at the slightest excuse. As a lefty Democrat I was hoping for single payer health care and the troops home now, too. And frankly, if I had lived in the district I would have voted for him over Leonard Boswell in the 2008 primary.

But Fallon is making some strange alliances for some misguided reasons. He believes that the first in the nation slot for the Iowa caucuses is at risk. Which is true -- it's always true. We have one tenuous ally in New Hampshire and 48 enemies.

But the reason Fallon believes the caucuses are in extra special danger this cycle is the hard-right direction of the Iowa Republican Party. The argument points to "sane" Republicans avoiding Iowa: Jon Huntsman running with a full Screw Iowa strategy and Mitt Romney making a token effort compared to his all-out 2007-08 straw poll and caucus run.

So Fallon proposes that Democrats become "Republicans for a day" and meddle in -- oops, cross over to -- the Republican caucuses. Convinced that an Iowa win by one of the non "grownups" will irreparably damage our reputation and thus Iowa's special status in both parties, he hopes to save the Republicans from themselves. (Thus violating one of the core principles of politics: never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.)

Fallon's allies in this effort are Ron Paul supporters. On Friday, Fallon is hosting Coralville's Dustin Krutsinger on his radio show. Krutsinger attended 2008 caucuses and conventions as a Ron Paul Republican, but left the party in 2010 to run as a Libertarian legislative candidate. (That's how damaged the Republican brand is here in Johnson County; an unopposed Democratic legislator, and a candidate quits a major party to run on a third party ticket.)

Krutsinger and company at least have a more understandable motivation: boosting a candidate. Libertarian Republicans are hoping anti-war Democrats will support Ron Paul, or perhaps Gary Johnson.

I've seen this in reverse for years, on a local level. We get a lot of "Democrats for a day" in Johnson County, which hasn't elected a Republican supervisor in 50 years. (Locals call it "the real election." Classic statistic: 1000 more votes for county recorder in the 1998 primary than for governor.) Such gaming the system always bothers me. Political parties deserve the right to choose their own candidates, without interference from the other team.

But that's goody-goody idealism, so let's look at some more pragmatic reasons why Fallon has a bad idea here.

The Iowa Republican caucuses have survived goofy results before, most notably Pat Robertson finishing ahead of the sitting vice president in 1988. Even the 2008 result was atypical, as Mike Huckabee failed to repeat his Iowa success in the rest of the country. Democrats, too, survived Tom Harkin's favorite son run, but only because unlike the other 1992 candidates he got on board with Bill Clinton right away. (I'm still convinced Jerry Brown wrote himself in that fall.)

And in the Tea Party era Iowa Republicans are, sadly, not that atypical. The Iowa polls showing Michele Bachmann pulling even with, or even ahead of, Mitt Romney are now being echoed in national surveys.

Fallon's effort may do more harm than good. Supreme Court rulings from the 1980s give political parties wide latitude in setting their own nomination rules. The Democratic Party has a strong preference for closed primaries, where registration with the party is required.

Iowa is what I call closed primary lite, allowing changes on election day or caucus night. But if the game playing becomes too blatant, the national parties have every right and ability to crack down on us. Is it really worth the risk?

This might seem like inside baseball this far out. But Iowa law gives party central committees and conventions a lot of power. If there's a special election, there is no primary. Delegates and/or precinct chairs (depending on the office) choose the party nominee. There's also a convention if no candidate wins the required 35 percent in the primary. It's only been a decade since a couple hundred votes at a district convention sent Steve King to Congress.

If you're a Democrat who decides to be A Republican For A Day, and your congressman dies or your state senator resigns or your mid-term county supervisor gets elected to the legislature, you're not in the room. You're not a Democratic delegate or committee member, because those people are elected on caucus night, and you were down the hall at the Republican caucus.

Granted, it would be kind of fun to mess with the Republican platform committee. But other anti-war and progressive Democrats are pursuing a more honorable approach: an uncommitted Democratic effort. I'm not with them -- as we say in Obama world, I'm In -- but I wish them well.

There were problems with accurately and honestly reporting uncommitted results against Bill Clinton in 1996, but now that results are reported directly from the caucus site to the state party, rather than through county party chairs, those issues should be resolved. A Kim Jong Il 100 percent result would strain credibility, and I'm sure the president will be just fine with 99.6. Whatever that small uncommitted Democratic percentage is, it will stand on its own as a clear message, rather than getting buried as an indistinguishable factor in the Republican results.

Caucusing as an uncommitted Democrat, rather than as an insincere Republican, also gets you a seat at the table for the Democratic platform (whatever that's worth; I'm more a GOTV guy myself) and any special conventions.

But the best thing you can do to protect the caucuses is to support the candidate whose Iowa win made history in the most important caucuses ever, shattered the myth that a black candidate couldn't draw white votes, and set him on the road to the White House. The president has not forgotten his debt to Iowa, and a re-elected Barack Obama will protect Iowa's first in the nation role for 2016.

Some day a Screw Iowa candidate is gong to be elected president and the caucuses will die. We'll quietly vote for Presumptive Nominee as we pick our local candidates in the June primary. But there's no reason to hasten that fate by gaming the system.

Perry's Calling

Perry's Calling

Texas Gov. Rick Perry chose an interesting word Saturday to describe his increasingly likely presidential candidacy:

“I’m not ready to tell you that I’m ready to announce that I’m in,” Gov. Rick Perry told The Des Moines Register. “But I’m getting more and more comfortable every day that this is what I’ve been called to do. This is what America needs.”

Back home, he walked that word back a notch:

"There's a lot of different ways to be called. My mother may call me for dinner. My friends may call me for something. There are people calling from all across this country ... and saying, 'Man, we wish you would consider doing this,'" Perry said.

But the Houston Chronicle caught the undertone:

But asked if that meant his comments were devoid of any religious overtone, Perry quickly added, "Oh no, no, no. ... I am a man of faith. I don't make any apologies about my faithfulness. ... Do I look for signs, and do I look for good Scripture that tells me how to live my life? Absolutely I do that."

As the great military leader Colonel Sherman T. Potter used to say, mule muffins. "Calling" was a deliberate religious dog whistle, as in "called to Christ" or a minister being "called," not "hired," by a congregation.

In addition to the religious tone, it also implies a false denial of ambition in the way a British politician "stands for" office rather than "running." As Iowa pols know, Perry has been doing some "calling" of his own.

My take is Rick Perry is the Fred Thompson of 2012: looks good on paper, likely to fizzle on the trail. As for any "calling," I prefer Joe Strummer:



And if it HAS to be a Perry calling, I prefer this Perry.

Greenwood Announces in House 60

Greenwood Announces in House 60

Bob Greenwood of the Waterloo city council is hoping to make Republican Walt Rogers a one term wonder. Democrat Greenwood just announced in House District 60.

Rogers hasn't announced his own plans yet, though he did have an announcement today, endorsing... Rick Santorum?!? The district changes little and has a GOP registration edge of 838 (April) and in practice has been a swing seat. But Rogers ran first for the Senate in 2008, losing to Jeff Danielson by by a recount-close 22 vote margin. He then came back in 2010 to knock off Six Pack Democrat Doris Kelley.

GReenwood knocked off an incumbent once before, in 2001 to win his council seat. He's mid-term this year so the timing is unrelated to city filing, which is later this fall.

Saturday Morning Funnies

Saturday Morning Funnies

Get your cereal, we have a good one this morning. Tea partier Dennis Guth has announced in Senate District 4 and so far he's our leading contender for the Nobel Unintentional Humor Prize for Campaign 2012:

Guth criticized government mandates such as mental health. "I don't think we need to be mandating things that we don't support," he said.

Like that great line from Charlie Wilson's War: "The Ethics Committee?!? Well, Jesus, Donnelly. Everyone in town knows I'm on the other side of that issue."

"Guth stressed his strong support of the Second Amendment, saying he has a permit to carry a concealed weapon." So he's armed and against mental health.

There's more: "Addressing a question about preschools, Guth said mothers should be staying home to care for their children, not sending them to preschool."

The no-incumbent Senate 4, of course, is where Stewart Iverson is expected to run. But there's no announcement yet. A GOP primary would make for some good entertainment. But be careful at the debate, Stew, Dennis may be packin'.

---

In less crazy news, yet another Democrat is on the comeback trail. Art Staed of Cedar Rapids, who won one term in 2006 before losing to Renee Schulte by 13 votes in 2008, has announced in House 66. Changes to the turf make it more Democratic.

This will be Staed's fourth run; he lost to Jeff Elgin in 2004. He took 2010 off. Democrats thought they had a good shot against Schulte with attorney Mark Seidl but Schulte won solidly.

Upmeyer Makes Move Official

Upmeyer Makes Move to House 54 Official

This one's been anticipated since Map Day and now it's finally official:

House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has announced plans to run for re-election in House District 54.

After redistricting, District 54 is comprised of portions of Cerro Gordo and Butler Counties and all of Franklin County. Upmeyer intends to move to the Clear Lake area to run in, what is essentially, the district she currently represents.

My guess is she was just waiting till the end of session, which at the rate it was going could have pushed it dangerously close to the March 2012 filing period.

Upmeyer was part of the only triple-up in the whole state in House 8 with fellow Republicans Stewart Iverson and Henry Rayhons. It almost looked like a deal breaker for the whole Map for a few hours. But Iverson is widely expected to run in open Senate District 4. Rayhons, in his mid 70s, could be a retirement, but with Iverson and Upmeyer settled he could decide to stick around.

As for Upmeyer's new district, it's got a better Republican registration edge (+4000) than either her seat from last decade or the one she shared with Iverson and Rayhons. So she can worry less about re-election and more about why her presidential candidate, Newt Gingrich, is tanking. She's chairing his state committee but since the post-vacation cruise staff evacuation, she says her Newt duties are "on the back burner."

A couple months back, TheIowaRepublican was reporting young veteran Gabe Haugland was also interested in 54 on the GOP side; any ammo still in that round?

Gronstal Opponent Makes It Semi-Official

Gronstal Opponent Makes It Semi-Official

Council Bluffs Republicans just can't wait to start running against Mike Gronstal: "Retired U.S. Air Force Col. Al Ringgenberg has been chosen by the Pottawattamie County Republican Central Committee to challenge Sen. Michael Gronstal, a Council Bluffs Democrat, in the November 2012 general election."

There's that little pro forma matter of a primary (ask a Wisconsin Democrat), which isn't for 10 1/2 months, but "Ringgenberg received (county party) support to oppose Gronstal as result of a candidate forum on Monday." Other states do pre-primary endorsements; it's a big deal in our neighbor to the north, Minnesota. But it's not usually done in Iowa.

In any case, Ringgenberg's name has been floating since at least late May. One small issue yet to be resolved: "(Ringgenberg) recently told a tea party meeting in Council Bluffs that he planned to sell his home so he could move into Gronstal’s Senate district."

Senate District 8 is the least changed district in the entire state; unless I missed something below the map scale it's literally identical to the turf Gronstal had last decade, except for the number (which used to be 50). It had a late April Democratic registration edge of 1872.

"Every freakin' Democrat in ten counties is in Gronstal's district," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering in an epic District of the Day analysis. "You couldn't get him better turf if you were trying."

In his last race in 2008, Gronstal also had a big target on his back and faced a tough-looking challenge from Mark Brandenburg (who won a House seat in 2010). But Gronstal won handily, 58 to 42 percent. With Omaha TV in play, look for this one to break every legislative race spending record in Iowa history.

BVP Jumps The Shark

BVP Jumps The Shark

I wish tonight wasn't Wednesday night
I wish it wasn't the thirteenth of July, yell help
And you're looking at the guy whose eyes can't deny
That he wishes he were somewhere else tonight
Elton John, 1975

Bob Vander Plaats no doubt wishes he were somewhere else tonight. Wednesday the thirteenth of July, 2011, is going to go down as the day he and the famIly leader jumped the shark. The day three leading Republicans decided the little emperor of Iowa's religious right had no clothes, and I'm so sorry I put that image in your head.

BVP took a one-two-three hit today as, in turn, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Herman Cain all announced they were not going to sign the "Marriage Vow." That follows Gary Johnson's hell, no early on. Who's left who might sign? Roy Moore?

The high profile refusals, polite though they may be, along with Rick Santorum's irrelevance (sorry, Kim Lehman, who drops a spectacularly poorly timed endorsement), devalues the eventual famIly leader endorsement of Michele Bachmann below that "top ten endorsements" level that Vander Plaats was reveling in. Now, I still think Bachmann wins the caucuses, but that's on her own "merits" without Bob's help.

The slavery line was just tone-deaf, although the national media that pounced on that as the big story has its own tone-deafness. In religious righty circles references to slavery, and particularly to Dred Scott, are often abortion dog whistles. Not saying that's what happened here for sure, but in context it helps explain. (But taking it out probably means David Duke won't sign.)

You know who else loses here? Back on Friday and Monday, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich hedged on signing, which seemed gutsy compared to Bachmann and Santorum battling over who could sign first. Now, compared to outright rejection, "studying it" and "reservations" seems cowardly.

Dems Sweep, Mitt Gets One Right

Dems Sweep Special Elections; Mitt Gets One Right

A six for six sweep last night in the Wisconsin senate recalls, as all the party-backed candidates defeated what even the objective media was calling "fake Democrats." (All six were GOP activists who ran simply to force a primary and delay the actual recall vote by four weeks. Some even said so on the record.)

WIsconsin is a fully open primary state, with no party registration (unlike the closed primary lite of Iowa, where you have to affiliate for a primary but can do so on the spot.) Since there were no GOP primaries, Republicans were free to cross over and interfere, so the results are a good leading indicator of which way the final recall votes will go next month.

And the news is good. Five of the six Real Democrats pulled between 64 and 70 percent. The sixth, the lone first time candidate in a Democratic field made up mostly of sitting state reps and other elected officials, won 54-46. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take Senate control (they have to play defense in three of their own seats).

For good measure, Dems also won a California congressional special and an Arkansas legislative seat.

---

I really hate to have to say this, but good for you, Mitt Romney:

Romney “strongly supports traditional marriage,” but the oath circulated last week by the Family Leader “contained references and provisions that were undignified and inappropriate for a presidential campaign.”

UPDATE: And good for you Tim Pawlenty.

Some of this is Romney's Screw Iowa lite strategy. Some of this is he's got nothing to lose anyway, as the famIly leader base and leadership finds him religiously unacceptable.

The Pledge is backfiring badly, literally becoming a national laughingstock. Stephen Colbert gave it a whole segment last night:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Flavery
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog Video Archive

But one quibble with most media coverage: Romney was not the first candidate to reject the BVPledge. That would be Gary Johnson. He may be trailing the asterisk in the polls, but he's won two statewide elections for governor, which is two more than Bob Vander Plaats.

Jerry Mandering Finds Work

Jerry Mandering Finds Work in NC, WI

With redistricting long since done in Iowa, and reprecincting well under way in Iowa City and North Liberty, we haven't heard from our friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering in some time.

But news reports show incontrovertible evidence that Jerry has been working with Republicans in North Carolina and Wisconsin.



"When they split North Carolina's 9.5 million people into 13 congressional districts, Republican mapmakers reserved a special place for Sallie Stocks.

They put everybody in Sampson County into the 2nd Congressional District. That is, except for the 85-year-old woman who lives off a country road near Duplin County."

The puzzle pieces are somewhat bigger in Wisconsin, but there's some creative hooks and peninsulas around Democrats who are challenging Republicans in recall elections. (Fake Primary Day is today; Republicans put ringers in Democratic primaries to stall off the main recall and to try to knock out the actual Democratic candidates. In a state without party registration, and without comparable Republican contests, it could work. The Nixon folks called this "ratf***ing.")

This is designed to be a 5 R, 3 D incumbent protection map, with the goal of shoring up GOP freshmen Sean Duffy and Reed Ribble. here's a nice lower case n shaped state senate district along Lake Superior that borders a three-lobed barbell. But my favorite part is the hook that runs through the cranberry bogs of Adams and Juneau counties into the geographic center of the state to take heavily Democratic Stevens Point away from Duffy and give it to La Crosse Democrat Ron Kind.

The Poll Plus

TheIowaRepublican Poll Plus

No one teases out a poll better than TheIowaRepublican. Most outfits start with the big top of the ticket race, then drag the story out a few more days with the downballot and the issues. Not TIR. They start with "ethanol not a deal-breaker" and hit yesterday with the declared presidential candidates.

But wait, there's more! You also get, today, the presidential poll with four undeclared candidates added:

Romney 18
Bachmann 15
Christie 13
Cain 7
Palin 7
Perry 6
Pawlenty 6
Paul 5
Gingrich 3
Giuliani 2
Santorum 1
Huntsman 1

Christie has all but made the Sherman Statement, and even at 13 percent he isn't in nearly the position Fred Thompson was pre-candidacy at just about this time four years ago. Of the others, the platypus looks most likely; Palin, who knows, Rudy, who cares.

Lots of interesting cross-tabs; this is exactlyt why lefties should read righty blogs and vice versa. (Though I wish I had the resources to do polling...) Craig Robinson's takeaway: "Bachmann has the squishiest support of the candidates campaigning in Iowa."

Seems Bachmann is also somewhat squishy when it comes to in-person criticism; the Miami Herald checks the police records and finds she's quick to call the cops.

But Jonathan Martin at Politico chimes in with an interesting comparison:

Michele Bachmann hasn’t declared yet that she’s running to represent “the Republican wing of the Republican Party,” but that’s all that’s missing from a presidential bid that bears more than a passing resemblance to Democrat Howard Dean’s in 2004.

Don't cringe, I see the pattern. Dramatic on-line fundraising, strong message, appeal to base. Things looked really great for Dean at this point in July 2003, in the glory days of The Bat and Meetup.

Will Bachmann meet the same fate?

“[Democratic primary voters] were still so afraid of what Bush could do in a second term that in the end they got pragmatic,” recalled Joe Trippi, who managed Dean’s campaign. “Obama engenders that same anxiety and fear within the Republican base.”

Dean peaked about a month too early, right around the time of the Tom Harkin and (shudder) Al Gore endorsements. I can see the same happening in about December with Steve King. Then at the last minute, in the week before the caucuses (remember that four way dead heat Register poll?) everyone chickened out. "We need someone who can beat Bush. They can't attack John Kerry -- he's a war hero!" Don't forget that THIS:



happened AFTER the much more important third place finish.

Gingrich Yearns for Lincoln-Douglas in Twitter Era

In Iowa City, Gingrich Yearns for Lincoln-Douglas in Twitter Era


BVP, Newt

Bob Vander Plaats and the famIly leader (all lower case except the I, because it's all about Bob) presidential lecture tour made a sixth and maybe final venture into the People's Republic of Johnson County Monday afternoon with Newt Gingrich. The event moved upstairs to the Iowa Memorial Union ballroom, because the main lounge was busy with freshman orientation. The incoming freshmen were six when Newt stepped down as speaker in late 1998.

The crowd is is 50 or 60 people. Many more public were here for Ron Paul, many more public and press here for Michele Bachmann. (My spell check wants to change Bachmann to Eichmann.)

At a brief press availability before the speech, Lynda Waddington of Iowa Independent asks the elephant in the room question: how does the BVP Marriage Pledge mesh with Newt's personal life? Bob answers: "We are a Christian organization, we believe in redemption and forgiveness. We believe he is committed to his wife right now."

I ask about the debt ceiling negotiations and his experience with government shutdown. He uses this as a launching pad to talk economics and Obama bash, including a repeat of the reference to Obama as "the leading food stamp president in American History." In direct response, he says he's pleased that Boehner held the line on taxes, but doesn't talk shutdown per se.

The Daily Iowan asks about the main emphasis of the Marriage Pledge: marriage of the gay variety. Gingrich calls on the Obama administration to back the Defense of Marriage Act (sic) in court. He concedes that New York went about marriage equality (my word) the right way through the legislative process, and the proper recourse is to vote the people who supported it out of office. Iowa did it through “judicial activism,” a favorite phrase of Vander Plaats.

BVP handles the introduction and says there may be another edition of the presidential lecture series in August or September, but drops no names. The fliers list an August 1 date with “to be announced.”

Newt starts saying "We need to find the solutions to the future." He talks at length about the Food and Drug Administration and finding a 21st century model "that accelerates moving science to the patient." This seems like part of a “niche issue” strategy that Gingrich discussed recently; he hopes to bring together a diverse coalition of intense single-issue advocates.

As Newt talks about the last shuttle launch and relying on the Russians for five years of space launches ("it only took us eight to get to the moon") Calista Gingrich enters the room, in an impossible to miss manner. Newt stops the space discussion to introduce her.

The Main Ballroom is a nice looking space but has two shortcomings: poor lighting and poor sound. I got my one usable photo at press time, but the speech is hard to hear. There's a general foreign policy drift: "We are not safer than we were on 9/11," citing North Korea and Pakistan. "When you talk about family, there a lot of Iowa guards people in Afghanistan, and a lot of people lost loved ones in 9/11." Also cites jobs report, repeating lines he answered me with:

Moving on to the economy, Gingrich repeats some line he offered me at press time. “Jobs are a family issue. You can't have a family if you can't provide for A FAMILY. You have a dependent family, not an independent family." As for last week's jobs report: "The US added just 18,000 jobs last month. That is approximately one job for every 1000 unemployed Americans. This may not be a plateau from which we bounce back, but a plateau to an even deeper loss.”

His solutions? We ought to put more offshore drilling in the debt ceiling bill. Gingrich also cites a “radical rewrite of labor law" by the National Labor Relations Board, prompting the first applause from the partisans. As a symbol of Big Government, Newt notes, "Washington DC is the only city that has not lost housing values."

Gingrich wraps the speech by citing his own book "A Nation Like No Other." It's a pattern; he mentions his newsletter and columns and books and films a lot. Defining American Exceptionalism, he says: “We are the only society in history that says power comes from God to each of us personally. The center of power is the citizen, not the government. You can only have a family oriented society if you have a sovereign citizenry." Sound improves slightly.” In the Obama model, Gingrich says, "power is centered in the government."

As usual at the famIly leader events, Q & A is submitted in writing in advance, and read aloud by Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley. How does Newt attract independents? Newt: "They'll look at the ideas and make a decision." Starts talking about regenerative medicine and dialysis, part of that niche issue strategy. Moving to foreign policy, he says: “This administration refuses to recognize that there's a real threat to this county, and the administration won't be honest about who's trying to kill us. That's a 80, 85 percent issue with the public." He's careful to distinguish between “peaceful Muslims” and “radical Islamists,” but note that he's already used the word “radical” in describing Obama administration labor policy.

Chuck Hurley asks what's THE most important issue. Rather than saying homer-SEX-yule marriage, Gingrich gives an interesting answer. "The greatest challenge we have is how can we have a conversation. There's this passion of the media to trivialize everything." He cites the obsession over Anthony Weiner's sex scandal and the Casey Anthony trial. "If you look at the total volume of coverage about the devastating unemployment report vs. an admittedly tragic trial, it's out of proportion." Newt talks about the length and depth of the Lincoln-Douglas debates – seven three-hour debates, no moderator – and contrasts the recent debate questions about favorite TV shows. "You ought to be ashamed of yourself. This is not a game show. This is a conversation about the future of the United States of America and there ought to be some dignity. It is pathetic that we have degenerated into a politics of 30 second TV ads." Applause at end.

Vander Plaats asks, is Newt alienating moderates by being socially conservative? "If the choice is perfection you can splinter the Republican Party into 100 factions. The choice is between the general direction Newt Gingrich would take the country vs. Barack Obama." Repeats the Food Stamp President line AGAIN, adding "I want to be the pay check president"

Gingrich then goes on to take the lion's share of the credit for the economic boom of the late 1990's; William Jefferson who? "I helped balance the budget for four straight years.” Newt wants to go past deficit reduction, run surpluses and buy down the debt. "Truman and Eisenhower, even Kennedy, were pretty frugal. You don't start to see the big deficits until about 1967."

"Reagan ran on lower taxes, less regulation, and praise for entrepreneurs If we had seven years as good as the Reagan recovery you would have 25 million new jobs."

The "Activist judges" question gets asked, as it does at each famIly leader forum. Newt: “Everyone remembers taxation without representation, but the number two complaint in the Declaration of Independence was judges. One of the reasons we were so adamant about trial by jury was we wanted the local population to be able to overrule the judges." Says any five Supreme Court justices are "a floating constitutional convention." Only in the Warren era, says Newt, did the Court assert itself over legislatures. The answer is more Federalist papers than gay marriage. "Congress has the option to pass laws that block appeal to the court, so for example you could pass laws allowing school prayer." An interesting interpretation which may not jive with Marbury v. Madison.

And the elephant of Gingrich's marriages is in the room again. This Time Gingrich answers: "Of course you know I've been divorced twice. I've done things I'm not proud of, I've turned to God for forgiveness." Somehow, in a trick reminiscent of Rudy Giuliani on the subject of 9/11, this segues into the tax code and Alzheimer's. "If you had a tax code that favored families taking care of their loved ones, it would be a fundamentally different approach to health care." Again one of those niche issues. "The pursuit of happiness did not mean hedonism. Our rights and responsibilities transcend any one person."

In a closing statement: "I hope you will decide to be WITH me, not FOR me. The team has to include picking up seats in the House and Senate, and citizens at home. That will take power away from the bureaucracy in Washington. The left will not give up quietly. They will fight every day. They spent 80 years building their world.” Implying a rollback to pre-New Deal... or further? “This is probably the most critical election since 1860,” a line he's used before. “Four more years would be a disaster. This is about much more than politics this is about history and the nature of our country."

Caucus Date Leapfrog Less Intense But Still A Factor

Leapfrog Less Intense But Still A Factor

The Iowa caucuses are Monday, February 6. Really, swear to God, officially: Monday, February 6.

Of course, for several cycles in a row Iowa has announced dates only to move them later, as other states try to cut into a line that's been very carefully arranged by the national parties. The battle seems less intense this time, but one of the 2008 culprits is at it again.

Last cycle, the pushing and shoving that landed Iowa's caususes on the insanely early date of January 3 was led by the Michigan Democrats and the Florida Republicans.

Michigan's insistence on an early date was always less driven by their own desire for an early date than it was by the hatred of leading Michigan Democrats (Senator Carl Levin, Congressman John Dingell, and his wife DNC member Debbie Dingell) for Iowa and New Hampshire's early role. We don't care who's first, as long is it's NOT Iowa. With the Democratic monination lookig uncontested, and Republicans now in full control of Michigan government, Michigan has settled down, for now.

But the Florida GOP is still at it, though less intensely than in 2008. They've agreed to recognize the national quartet of early states selected by both parties: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. But their slogan is "We want to be fifth."

Politico reports that Florida, in the post-shuttle era, is trying to launch during a very narrow window. They'll accept a slot after South Carolina, currently scheduled for February 28, but before Überdienstag, which for now looks to be Tuesday, March 6.

This means a non-traditional, non-Tuesday election:

"If we do it on that Thursday (March 1) or that Saturday (March 3), that would show respect for the RNC rules and those first four historic or semi-historic early states and also ... allow us to go before other states because Florida is that important,'' said Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, hopeful that the RNC will cut Florida some slack.

Don't count on it, says the RNC.

The Republican penalty for breaking the calendar rules is half the delegates, a tradeoff Florida and Michigan gladly made in 2008. Indeed, Florida was the final Republican contest of significance in 2008, where Rudy Giuliani bet it all and fizzled, leaving John McCain to take the nomination by default. (The Democratic penalty was Officially 100 percent, but in the end was ignored. Yeah, I'm still pissed.)

So the ball is in the court of the South Carolina GOP -- entirely, because they re paying for and conducting the primary themselves. Will they be satisfied with going two or four days before Florida, or will they move back? They had a Saturday contest in 2008. Saturday the 25th is a possibility, and Nevada (now at 2/28) might be OK with that. This would leave New Hampshire on Valentine's Day and us on February 6.

Of course, all that's a best case scenario that assumes no one else wants to cut in line. It's a political version of the Tragedy of the Commons. Everyone agrees that obscene front loading is bad for everyone, but it's not in the best interest of any one state to hold back.

In any case, Iowa Democrats are likely to be bystanders in all this. Separate caucus nights would be a disaster for the state. If just one person goes to both party caucuses and has a press conference to brag about it, BAM, we're voting in the June primary. So Dems are likely to follow the Republican lead.

While I'm at it, does Michigan J. Frog's friend look familiar to anyone?

Presidential Roundup

Your Monday Morning One-Stop Shop

The beret is planning to check in with Bob Vander Plaats and Newt Gingrich this afternoon, as the famIly leader tour stops by the People's Republic. That line in Bob's pledge about marital fidelity could produce a moment of awkward...

The pledge itself, of course, has been amended after the national press interpreted it as... pro-slavery? Here's the controversial part:

Slavery had a disastrous impact on African-American families, yet sadly a child born into slavery in 1860 was more likely to be raised by his mother and father in a two-parent household than was an African-American baby born after the election of the USA's first African-American President.

The controversy, of course, is in the line 'election of the USA's first African-American President." The amended version reads "Socialist Muslim Kenyan 'president' (sic)."

So what does the pledge revision do for the two who signed the antebellum version, Bachmann and Santorum? Does it help them in South Carolina?

But as the great philosopher R. Zimmerman once said, if you ain't got nothin' you got nothin' to lose. Thus Gary Johnson, the alternative for folks who find Ron Paul too socialist, is the only candidate who had the gonads to tell BVP to stick his petition where... well, in a place where it would be illegal to stick much of anything if Bob had his way.

---

The big non-Pledge news is of course this AM's TheIowaRepublican poll:

Bachmann 25
Romney 21
Cain 9
Pawlenty 9
Paul 6
Gingrich 4
Santorum 2
Huntsman 1

That only adds up to 76, so it seems there's a lot of undecided, scattered, and "anyone else." The real winner here may be Rick Perry. And, as always, Sarah Palin is hoverin' over this.

Another bizarro blip on the Bachmann front, this time a past association with a heavy metal fundamentalist -- you read that right -- "who believes gays are responsible for the Holocaust and endorses Muslim law calling for the execution of homosexuals." Maybe she's hoping for an endorsement from Tipper Gore. (Yeah. Still pissed. In other news, Members Of Twisted Sister Now Willing To Take It.)

I hate to say anything positive about a Screw Iowa strategy, even a modified one, but it seems Romney has made a smart choice. Last time he threw everything he had into Iowa and got a second plice 30 percent. Here he's doing nothing more than openly saying Screw Iowa like Huntsman, and he's at 21.

As for Herman Cain, he hits a bump in the road in his campaign for Secretary of Commerce as he's denounced by Hispanic Republicans, both of them.

Grammar Guy vs. Deeth Blog

But is there a hyphen in anal-retentive?

Last week, while trying to figure out which cola beverage Tim Pawlenty is most like, I cited the great Nate Silver. He's the single best example of blogger made good: his number crunch blog FiveThirtyEight has been annexed by the New York Times itself. The move to the mainstream required some compromise, though, as I noted in a tangent:

"Instead of being the consensus choice, he finds himself with very little breathing room. Voters deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Perry tend to prefer Mr. Perry, those deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Romney tend to prefer Mr. Romney, and so forth.

(Tangent: One of the compromises a blogger made good has to make is the New York Times stylebook that Mr.'s and Ms.'s everyone. Most famously, the NYT referred to the singer of "Paradise By The Dashboard Lights" as "Mr. Loaf." We now return to our block quote already in progress.)

Put differently, Mr. Pawlenty is not intrinsically well differentiated from his opponents. A lot of voters might find him acceptable — but the types of voters who find him acceptable will also tend to find a lot of other candidates acceptable."

This tangent prompted a response that has to be repeated verbatim to be appreciated:

Dear Mr. Deeth,

I’ve just come across your blog entry with a digression on “Mr.”

The New York Times did NOT refer to Meat Loaf as Mr. Loaf, except in an unmistakably self-mocking headline. The story is apocryphal, though it has embedded itself in the conventional wisdom.

You owe The Times a correction.

Regards,

Allan M. Siegal
Retired A.M.E.
and co-author, The New York Times Manual of Style and Usage, 1999

Well, a little investigating finds the "self-mocking" headline and a subsequent article that call's the songwriter "Mr. Steinman" but the singer "Meat Loaf."

So I stand corrected, no doubt giving Mr. Siegal, still marking copy in his retirement, great pleasure in proving me wrong...



...and proving my tangential point about nit-pickiness even better than I did myself.

Not To Be Confused

Not To Be Confused

We've already got the problem of two David Johnsons: the Republican senator from northwest Iowa and the Democratic candidate from West Branch challenging Jeff Kaufmann in House 73.

Now we've got two John Archers, and one of them is endorsing the opponent of the other:

This John Archer believes:

We should get our military out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

We should increase taxes for anyone making more than $250,000 per year.

We should impose a luxury tax on any car, boat or airplane costing more than $50,000.

We should have universal health care for all.

We should allow any two people who love each other to marry.

We should leave health decisions to the patient and her doctor.

This John Archer supports Dave Loebsack as the best candidate to serve as our representative in Congress.

This John Archer will be voting for Loebsack!

John E. Archer

West Liberty

Democrat Archer has something else in common with Democrat Johnson: he was Kaufmann's 2010 opponent.

Kevin McCarthy is pleased (that's Kevin McCarthy the House minority leader not Kevin McCarthy the conservative California congressman.) Jim Hahn is not. (That's Jim Hahn the Republican senator from Muscatine, not Jim Hahn the former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles.)

The Taking Bachmann Seriously Thread

The Taking Bachmann Seriously Thread

A convergence of stories last couple days taking Michele Bachmann seriously not just as a potential Iowa winner, but as a possible nominee.

Most significantly, Nate Silver weighs in with lots of graphs and numbers (being Nate Silver). The whole analysis is worth it but the tl;dr version is:

Imagine that Ms. Bachmann has won the Iowa caucuses while Mr. Romney has taken the New Hampshire primary, and the nomination is essentially up for grabs between them. As the contest shifts to a key state like Ohio or Pennsylvania, suppose that conservative Republicans split 60-30 in Ms. Bachmann’s favor (with a few voters opting for a hanger-on like Ron Paul), while moderate Republicans go 80-15 for Mr. Romney. Who is going to win?

Turnout would be decisive. If two conservative Republicans cast ballots for every moderate Republican — roughly the ratio in 2008 — Mr. Romney would prevail by a couple of points. But if the turnout looks more like 2010, and there are three conservative Republicans at the polls for every moderate Republican, Ms. Bachmann would win by about six percentage points...

Jonathan Chait adds:

Many reporters have noted that a one-on-one matchup between Romney and Bachmann is Romney's dream scenario. That's true -- it's his best chance to have the establishment rally behind him. I haven't seen them mention that it's also Bachmann's dream scenario -- she gets to face off against an establishment candidate totally unacceptable to large segments of the party base.

Now, the far greater danger to Bachmann is that she faces off against somebody other than Romney -- say, Rick Perry, or possibly even Paul Ryan -- who can appeal to right-wingers and party elites as well.

Bachmann was the fastest candidate yesterday to sign off on the famIly leader pledge, so fast she accidentally stabed Chuck Hurley in the hand with her pen. Most of the rest wimped out with no comments or mutterings about "studying it." Jon Huntsman totally punted by making a pledge not to sign pledges, adding: "I already told your whole state to piss off, so why do I care about what some guy who can't win a primary there thinks?" for good measure. (That's not a direct quote, but a reasonably likely transcript of the inner monologue.) Only Ron Paul had the gonads to say he had "reservations."

But back to Bachmann, it seems there is method to the seeming madness of her fast and loose interpretation of historic "facts." Spencer Critchley:

While Sarah Palin's eye-darting improvs fairly scream "I didn't do my homework," in all likelihood Bachmann did do her homework on this one. It's just that she's reading from a different text than most of us...

The rewriting of history is a natural, and even unavoidable, consequence of the absolutism on both religion and the Constitution that characterizes Tea Party Republicanism, of which Bachmann is now the figurehead. Such absolutism requires believing that the founding text of your creed is complete and perfect, and that its authors were infallible. When reality and belief collide, reality has to give way.

So if the Founders owned slaves, and the Constitution said that was fine, there are only a few choices:

1. Slavery actually wasn't all that bad, or
2. The Founders must have been trying to end slavery, and/or
3. There were more Founding Fathers than you think: we need to include that child prodigy John Quincy Adams.

T-Paw Steps In The Gaga Again

T-Paw Steps In The Gaga Again

Tim, Tim. Tim. I'm sorry I compared you to a can of generic cola yesterday. Sure, you need some pizzazz. But I didn't mean for you to go out and start talking about Lady Gaga again:

Yes, the Unlikeliest Little Monster is once again trying to look cool, and this time we have video. It's just short of two minutes into the softball interview. He's almost escaped... and then HE's the one who goes there:



The weird part is, he stumbles onto some semi-lucid thoughts that would make sense in any context other than a Republican nominating contest:

“Well you know, in terms of the beat, I like ‘Bad Romance,’” Pawlenty said. “I gotta say, even though she’s a little unusual, ‘Born this Way’ has some appeal. She’s actually very talented. Now if you go to the end of the HBO special, the Lady Gaga HBO special, and you watch her sing a cappella “Born This Way,” she can sing. She can definitely sing. She’s talented.”

True enough; look around a bit on line and there's a lot of good versions of her music without the dance-pop glitz, stripped down to the songs.

Somewhat apologetically, Pawlenty also noted that if he limited his artistic taste only to conservatives, he “wouldn’t have a lot of choices.”

Yeah, and as we've noticed all last campaign and again with the Michele Bachmann-Tom Petty fight last week, it's always artists from the left objecting to candidates from the right. Pawlenty names several other left-leaning artists: Springsteen, Mellencamp... heck, even one of his country faves, Tim McGraw, is one of the few Democrats in Nashville.

“You gotta be willing to tolerate different politics,” he said.

Fair enough. But me acknowledging that despite my differences with Ted Nugent's politics, "Cat Scratch Fever" kicks much ass is one thing. Tim Pawlenty going out of his way to praise a queer-pride anthem with the hook line "don't be a drag, just be a queen"? It's really hard to credibly separate that song from its politics.

Is it cluelessness, cynicism, clumsiness, or all of the above? Or is it some kind of double reverse dog whistle Jedi mind trick? But it's risky; I'm surprised Bob Vander Plaats didn't have an anti-Gaga line in his famIly leader pledge, right next to Sharia law.

One Retirement, One Train Wreck

Districts Revisited: One Retirement, One Train Wreck

With the quadruple-overtime legislative session finally over, we're seeing the campaign announcement and retirement fallout from The Map. Two updates from districts where two Republicans are paired up: one smooth retirement and one train-wreck primary.

The fratricidal face-off that looked like a map-killer on Map Day seems like it will actually happen. Annette Sweeney has announced for re-election in House District 50. She's paired up with our next United States Senator, Pat Grassley, who also announced for the same seat last month.

Is this a game of chicken, with one of them veering off at the last minute? Or will they actually settle this at the polls? There's usually one where one of the parties can't work it out: Bill Brand vs. Jane Svoboda in 1992, Rick Larkin and Phil Wise in 2002.

Republicans have settled things more smoothly in House District 79. Oskaloosa freshman Guy Vander Linden is running, and Jim Van Engelenhoeven of Pella is retiring after seven terms.

Both these seats are solidly Republican. There is some good news for Dems, though: Vander Linden, who knocked off Eric Palmer last year in a swing district that went north to Grinnell, is staying with the House race instead of challenging a very vulnerable Democratic senator, Tom Rielly.

Pledge Wrong but Vander Plaats Right

BVP Gets One Thing Right

“This is about the next generation,” Vander Plaats told reporters at a news conference on the steps of the Iowa Statehouse. “It’s about our economy, marriage and family and society.”

Well, Bob gets part of that right, anyway. This IS about the next generation. This is about alienating Generation Gaga by pandering to the prejudices of the old. Not a smart trade off in the long run.

But there is one especially pointed ROTFLMFAO line: "Presidential candidates who sign the pledge will agree to personal fidelity to his or her spouse..." Especially good with Newt Gingrich doing the famIly leader dog and pony show next Monday.

Let's see what else we pledge here...

to appoint “faithful constitutionalists” as judges, opposition to any redefinition of marriage, and prompt reform of uneconomic and anti-marriage aspects of welfare policy, tax policy and divorce law.

The Marriage Vow also outlines support for the legal advocacy for the federal Defense of Marriage Act, humane efforts to protect women and children, rejection of Sharia Islam, safeguards for all married and unmarried U.S. military service members, and commitment to downsizing government and the burden upon American families.

Again about the next generation: the gratuitous "Sharia Islam" reference embraces Steve King nativism in an increasingly immigrant America. How many presidential candidates will gleefully paint themselves into this corner chasing after that solid gold endorsement from a thrice-defeated candidate?

Vander Plaats, Hurley to unveil presidential pledge Thursday

Get out your litmus paper, we have a test



Bob Vander Plaats, who as you recall from the will he or won't he independent filing period last year is a better tease than Gypsy Rose Lee, has us waiting in antici - SAY IT! - pation again for tomorrow's news conference. He and Chuck Hurley are unveiling a "Higher Standard for Candidates" presidential pledge. In a Deeth Blog exclusive I have some sample items:

1. i PLEDGE TO CAPiTALiZE WORDS iN A BiZARRE WAY.
2. I pledge to feed my staffers nothing but Pizza Ranch Pizza. (Which would be a problem for Herman Cain except he just lost his staff.)
3. I pledge to visit the state in the spring of 2014 to help Bob with his primary for governor against Kim Reynolds and Bill Dix.
4. I commit my online supporters to a Google-bomb effort to change the top search engine result for santorum.
5. I wasn't tapping my foot, officer, I just have a wide stance.

While we wait for the rest of the Ten Commandments, here's the actual famIly leader (capItalIze the I, It's all about BOB) release.

We don't normally send out three emails within an 18-hour period and we apologize for filling up your inbox.

However, The FAMiLY LEADER believes it is important to let you know you are invited to join us at a press conference tomorrow, Thursday, July 7th, to unveil an important presidential candidate pledge document.

Chuck Hurley and I will be on the West steps of the Iowa State Capitol Building tomorrow at 11:00 AM to reveal the subject matter of this presidential candidate pledge document.

This document is designed to be signed by each presidential candidate. The signing of the pledge will be a requirement for future endorsement by The FAMiLY LEADER.

The purpose of the pledge is to have on record the personal conviction of each
presidential candidate as well as provide an opportunity for Iowans to further vet each candidate.

If you are able, please join us on the West steps of the Iowa State Capitol Building tomorrow, Thursday, July 7th at 11:00 AM!

Blessings,
Bob

Remember folks: red litmus paper is for your base. Blue is for acid. Read whatever political implications you will into that.

Is Pawlenty RC, or Generic?

Headline

Tim Pawlenty got a little good news by proxy yesterday: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of THAT Huckabee, is heading up his Ames straw poll efforts. That's of course NOT a Mike endorsement, but Huckabee pere's distaste for nominal frontrunner Mitt Romney is well known. Assume for the sake of argument that the support of the daughter implies the support of the father. Here's how I see this hand playing out:

This cycle the GOP nominating contest is about Mitt vs. Not Mitt. Sorry, Jon Huntsman: the Iowa winner always trumps the Screw Iowa candidate and thus gets to be the Not Mitt. But just being Not Mitt isn't enough. If that were true, the current trajectory pointing toward a Michele Bachmann win would be acceptable. No, Mike Huckabee wants the nominee to be an electable Not Mitt. I'm not convinced T-Paw is electable, but he is the only can of cola on the shelf that's not past the sell by date (Gingrich, Santorum) or otherwise unfit for human consumption (everyone else).

Blogger-made-good Nate Silver said last weekend that Tim Pawlenty is the RC Cola of the presidential race: "Instead of being the consensus choice, he finds himself with very little breathing room. Voters deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Perry tend to prefer Mr. Perry, those deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Romney tend to prefer Mr. Romney, and so forth.

(Tangent: One of the compromises a blogger made good has to make is the New York Times stylebook that Mr.'s and Ms.'s everyone. Most famously, the NYT referred to the singer of "Paradise By The Dashboard Lights" as "Mr. Loaf." We now return to our block quote already in progress.)

Put differently, Mr. Pawlenty is not intrinsically well differentiated from his opponents. A lot of voters might find him acceptable — but the types of voters who find him acceptable will also tend to find a lot of other candidates acceptable."

Silver has a good point but the wrong analogy. I think T-Paw is more like the off-brand Faygo or Doctor Thunder. The kind Mom swears are just as good for half the price, but taste funny in a way you can't describe.

If you look at the label, all the right ingredients are there: a tasty mix of social and fiscal conservativism in a blue state bottle. But Mom was looking at the coupons instead of the label and got decaf by mistake, and after one glass you left the cap off the bottle so it went flat. You keep hoping Mom will go to the store and get something else like that Perry Pop or Christie Cola (Now With Extra High Fructose Corn Syrup!) But that two liter of Pawlenty Pop just keeps staring at you every time you open the fridge.

And unfortunately for Pawlenty, he's on the market at a time when caucus shoppers are looking for Jolt Cola. Will Pawlenty find his fizz in time for Ames? Or will he be the biggest marketing flop since Decaf Mountain Dew? (You KNOW somebody got fired for that one.)

David Duke Explores Candidacy

In Other News, Modem Speeds Now Up To 28,800 Baud

And here I thought Newt Gingrich and Terry Branstad were unwelcome comebacks from the early 1990s:

Former Louisiana lawmaker and Ku Klux Klan head David Duke has begun a 25-city tour to gauge support for a possible presidential bid, The Daily Beast reported...

You know who's screwed here? Buddy Roemer. The last time he was on a ballot, as an incumbent governor in 1991, he lost the nomination to DuKKKe. If any debate sponsor was even thinking about including Roemer, they just un-invited him. (Though if Duke DOES get into a debate, pleeeeeease sit him next to Herman Cain...)

The winners here are anyone on the right spectrum of the party, as this moves the Overton window so far that even Santorum and Bachmann seem normal. Though some observers doubt that even Duke is conservative enough for the GOP base. Birtherism may have met its match with the long form proof from Hawaii, but that doesn't get at what the Obama haters are really mad about:



Reportedly that's Duke's campaign slogan. The theme song, of course:



Duke likes it but wants to drop the most controversial line. You know, "Deutschland is happy and gay."

But operatives are making every effort to infiltrate the Duke campaign:



Enough of this. If Terry Branstad is governor and David Duke is running for office, I need to set up my VCR for tonight's new episodes of "Seinfeld" and "Star Trek The Next Generation."

Lundby Runs in Marion - as Democrat

Lundby Runs in Marion - as Democrat

Just four years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... but as a Democrat.

“She saw a need for fresh new ideas not fueled by party agendas, but through listening to the voters who elected her," said Daniel Lundby in his press release:

"It is that same attention my mother gave her voters that I want to bring back to the constituents of House District 68.”

Explaining his decision to switch parties, Lundby said, “I changed my party affiliation from Republican to Democrat because the Republican Party and the people I was supporting no longer placed the best interests of Iowa and its voters before their own party agenda.”

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. (She had planned to run for the Board of Supervisors, but cancer that had been in remission returned and she passed away in early 2009.) Democrat Swati Dandekar went from the House to Senate, and Wagner (who lost the 2006 House race to Dandekar) won the House seat. He then, inexcusably, got an uncontested free ride last year.

Democrats had a voter registration edge of 544 as of early April in the new district. It no longer includes all of Marion, which grew too large for a House district this census. The most Republican part of town is now in speaker Kraig Paulsen's district. In addition to the bigger chunk of Marion, House 68 goes south to include Bertram and Ely, new ground for Wagner.

Democrat Adams Running in Senate 22

Democrat Adams Running in Senate 22

Spotted yesterday at the West Des Moines and Windsor Heights parades: attorney Desmund Adams, running as a Democrat in Senate District 22.

The district is currently without an incumbent. West Des Moines Republican Pat Ward, paired up to the east with Democrat Matt McCoy, called dibs before noon on Map Day. (The rumor mill also has former WHO talk star Steve Deace interested, though to correct my District of the Day observation he, like Ward, lives just east of the district line in the Polk County part of West Des Moines.)

Adams, a Drake grad (undergrad and law) has an interesting biography and a Facebook group.

The district is half Polk, half Dallas: Clive, Waukee, Windsor Heights and the Dallas County part of WDM. It has a solid, but not insurmountable, GOP voter registration edge of about 3400. Ward's old district lines were more competitive. She got by unopposed in 2008, though Democratic efforts at campaign recruitment continued to the last minute.

The Newt Reboot

The Newt Reboot

The Newt Gingrich presidential campaign (suggested slogan: Party Like It's 1994) has kinda been, from the get-go, a blast from the past. Fundraising is in self-admitted bad shape:

“Our numbers will not be as good as we would like, and candidly, the consultants left us in debt. But every single week since they left we’ve been cutting down the debt, and we raise more than we spend in a week.”

Unable to put the tab on one of the Tiffany's credit cards, Gingrich is reaching back to his speaker glory days with his new (to him) Iowa fundraising chair, Greg Ganske.

Greg Ganske?!? What, Tom Tauke and Gopher were unavailable? That suggests a new theme song, which won't need Tom Petty's approval:

Newt GIN-griiiiich, soon will be making another run
Newt GIN-griiiiich, promises something for everyone...

And that, too, seems to be the new(t) strategy: "niche issues."

As Gingrich sees it, Alzheimer’s, as well as other niche topics such as military families’ concerns and pharmaceutical issues,are priorities for passionate patches of the American electorate. By offering himself as a champion of pet causes, Gingrich believes he can sew together enough narrow constituencies to make a coalition — an unconventional one, yes, but a coalition nevertheless.

Prompting this priceless headline: Newt Gingrich bets on Alzheimer’s, other niche issues as key to a 2012 comeback. Betting on Alzheimer's for a comeback. Does that mean he hopes everyone has forgotten his disastrous tenure as speaker?

Set a course for adventure, your mind on a new(t) romance...

That one kind of speaks for itself.

The Amphibian One will visit the People's Republic next Monday on the BVP famIly leader tour. (I'm suggesting the capitalization change here; the I is upper case because it's all about Bob.)

Parade Report

Parade Report



Successfully completed the Johnson County parade trifecta today: Coralville, Oxford, and Hills. (The alternate trifecta is Sharon Center, Oxford, Hills.) I was wearing my Packer hat instead of the beret (us bald guys have to keep the sun off our heads), so I can't report on the gossip at the between parade party at Bob and Sue Dvorsky's. But as for the parades themselves, I have loads of pictures at Facebook and a few observations.

No big name politicos were on hand in Coralville this year. The biggest name I saw was Santa Claus, making an off-season appearance in Oxford and riding a motorcycle instead of the sleigh. Dave Loebsack was in two of his new towns, Bettendorf and Clinton, along with holdover Tipton. As for the presidential candidates, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich wisely spent their time elsewhere. A generic cross-section crowd at a parade in heavily Democratic Johnson County would be a poor use of time (but a well targeted meet and greet with GOP activists like Bachmann did Saturday is fine. Even though they're outnumbered, sheer population means there are still a lot of Republicans here.)



No presidential candidate units were sighted, either. Four years ago several of the Democratic campaigns had their own units at Coralville, as did Ron Paul on the GOP side. This year there were just party units: about 75 people on the Democratic side counting the Mitch Gross crew, a dozen or so for the GOP. Didn't spot any Republican officials or likely candidates; Democrats had most of the courthouse crew and legislative delegation on hand.

One thing the two parties had in common is the attrition rate: both lost about 3/4 of their bodies between Coralville and Oxford.

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

7:49 AM at a crowded Bluebird Diner awaiting Bachmann. Why here instead of the traditional campaign stop, the within-sight Hamburg Inn? It was Reagan Himself who started that tradition...

Looks like they overnighted here in Iowa City; saw the BAchmann Bus parked in front of the Sheraton on the way over. Looks to be 50 or so here, mostly an older crowd. 8 AM Saturday is kind of a Siberia for the Iowa City schedule. We have CNN cameras here but I don't see local cameras.

I find myself seated next to congresional candidate John Archer, who helped me out by plugging in the laptop. Archer says he mailed in the FEC paperwork yesterday. He's planning a formal announcement 7/13 and he's a s yet undecided on the presidential race.

Crowd up to 75ish (standing room, with some folks at the tables outside) at straight up 8. Bus not in sight yet but there is a large moving van. First event on the public schedule; I thing Rs care more about timeliness than Ds. I don't recognize any other interlopers. Going sans beret today in hopes of actually looking professional.

The poor DI guy next to me asked the wrong Member Of The Public for an opinion and is trapped in a monologue that is now in at least minute ten touching on religion, ethnicity, marital fidelity and who knows what. (807 now) The trickle in of latecomers has about stopped. NBC national camera sighted, but still no local TV.

8:11 and local GOP chair Bob Anderson is here (possible sign of bus movement?) 8:13 and the monologue to the DI reporter continues, moving on to judges.

Now up to 8:19. Even monologer is running out of things to say. 8:24... I should be working the room to get some Real People reacts but my mobility is limited. Crowd holding steady at about 75.

BUS HERE 8:29



8:34 The moving van was holding the spot! Bachman exits but to tune of Elvis singing "The Promised Land," (NOT Tom Petty!) State Sen. Kent Sorenson is with her. "She's a full spectrum conservative" he tells me to explain his support.

Full fledged candidate/camera/public scrum is on at 840. I got a brief handshake and overheard the chitchat: some mentions of Born In Waterloo, good rapport with crowd, lots of time with kids. Marcus (Mr. Bachmann) is working it too; confirms they stayed in town last night, he and a daughter caught some jazz fest. Happy it was free. (I resist urge to note the tax dollars we spend...)


Bachmann with local Republican John Dane.

8:48. MB still working crowd. Dropping "be sure to get out to the straw poll in Ames" a lot. Moving is difficult. Additional press and staff mean probably about 100 bodies total. She's autographing everything in sight: a hat, a cardboard coffee cup.

Sorenson sticking close to the candidate; Marcus working adjacent tables. My GOP pal Deb Thornton says she's uncommitted, but then offers praise for Herman Cain.

Rumor is this is a no speech meet and greet; feels that way. 8:55. Lots of picture posing. Looks like a retail, lock those straw poll votes in event. Looks like mostly party activists here. Doesn't matter how liberal Iowa City is; this is about the people in the room.

9:09 and the Bachmanns have been having an extended conversation with the owner and, moreso, the owner's kids. Everyone is a fan of Angry Birds. They toast, the kids with cocoa and the grownups with coffee: "To Iowa!" Smile rarely leaves face except for Sincere Listening Face.

Looks like actually ordering breakfast as of 9:14. I check in with the traveling staffer who's not sure Why Not Hamburg and when I introduce myself says "oh you're that liberal guy." So I might as well have worn the beret... meanwhile, Republicans are asking ME if there's a speech and the CNN guy is doing a live standup.



9:18. CNN interviews the candidate live while she hold a fork with a bite of scrambled eggs. Most of her reply is about How Important Iowa Is. The live shot wraps and she feeds the bite of eggs to one of the kids (her daughter it turns out). Crowd dwindling a bit.

Breakfast done by 9:24, back to working it. Due in Cedar Rapids in six minutes, gonna be a behind schedule day.

No speech; out the door at 9:32. The pattern continued: lots of chit chat about Iowa roots. Talks to Archer a couple minutes; says "we'll help you." Daughter takes breakfast remains to go. Bus pulling out 9:35. Will update later with pictures.

District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

Senate District 50

Registration: D 17476, R 8200, N 13251, total 38953, D+ 9276
Incumbent: Pam Jochum, D-Dubuque

Our last district Draws Itself, as Dubuque is 94.6% of ideal district size. That's down from 98.6% of a district 10 years ago, and just over a whole district in 1990 when a small piece had to be carved out. This decade, to bring the population up, Sageville and the north chunk of the highly fragmented Dubuque Township are added. Redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering occasionally does work for the Dubuque city planning department; I count at least seven noncontiguous pieces of three different townships here.

None of this really matters much in a Democratic stronghold like this. Jochum moved smoothly over to the Senate in 2008 (a 70% win over a Some Dude) after 16 years in the House, when Mike Connolly retired. Her other 2008 win was getting the state constitution language modernized with the passage of what everyone called the "idiot amendment."

The line across Dubuque shifts, but there's still a north district and a south district, as there was in the 1990s as well.

House District 99

Registration: D 8894, R 4638, N 6813, total 20355, D+ 4256
Incumbent: Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque

Then-Speaker Pat Murphy was almost a victim of the 2010 zeitgeist. He'd won with a typical 69% in 2008, but Republican insurance agent Paul Kern held Murphy to 52-48 last year. It was Murphy's closest race since squeaking in by 91 votes in a 1989 special. Murphy took himself out as Democratic leader soon after the statewide results took him out as speaker.

2010 may have been a wake-up call, but things should be better for Murphy now. Party leadership means a lot of campaigning for other people instead of doorknocking south Dubuque. It also puts a special target on your back (ask Mike Gronstal). There wasn't a similar Republican tend in the district just to the south...

House District 100

Registration: D 8582, R 3562, N 6438, total 18598, D+ 5020
Incumbent: Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque

... where Chuck Isenhart won a second term with about the same 60something margin he had in 2008. The seat was open that year with Jochum moving over to the Senate. Isenhart won a three way primary with a clear majority. He had a second primary from Some Dude in 2010, winning with 86%.

The line across Dubuque pivots a bit, moving north in the west and south on the riverfront. Isenhart has the Loras campus and most of downtown. everything from the Illinois bridge north; Murphy has University of Dubuque and most everything south of Asbury Road.

A RAGBRAI only takes a week to cross the state; we've spent ten weeks. But much like a RAGBRAI, our journey through Iowa started at the Missouri and ends at the Mississippi. Our very last district line, between House 99 and 100, reaches the Mississippi River at the Julien Dubuque Bridge. Can't think of a more appropriate way to wrap this up.

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