District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

Senate District 34

Registration: D 12637, R 13206, N 15441, total 41336, R+ 569
Incumbent: Swati Dandekar, D-Marion Liz Mathis, D-Robins

UPDATE Entire fall of 2011: I'm sure you know the story.

Dandekar has won national attention as the first woman of South Asian descent in American elected office (take that, Nikki Haley). Her heritage was the subject of whisper campaigns in her first House race in 2002, but once emailed smoking guns surfaced, Republicans had little choice but to scuttle their own candidate. Dandekar, who seemed to be ahead before the nastiness went above ground, became the first Democrat to win the Marion House seat in decades. She's had close races but held on, moving up to the Senate when Republican Mary Lundby stepped down in poor health in 2008. (Lundby had intended to run for the Board of Supervisors in a new district system that kicked in that year, but left that race and passed away just days after her Senate term officially expired.)

Dandekar is up in 2012. Any Democrat in a swingy seat with two GOP House members has to worry a bit, but Dandekar has cut a moderate profile and drawn some bipartisan support, much as Lundby did.

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House district size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

House District 67

Registration: D 5803, R 6916, N 7570, total 20312, R+ 1113
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

And the speaker gets to represent all four of those cities. Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. (Most of that goes into open House 95, where Democratic incumbent  Nate Willems is running for Senate instead.) Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration, which combined with his stature as speaker should leave him time to help other folks.

UPDATE July 22: Democrat Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into this district and will challenge Paulsen.

House District 68

Registration: D 6834, R 6290, N 7871, total 21024, D +544
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Wagner lost to Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win a top tier open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. But to use a sports analogy it was kind of a sacrifice fly; the Dems gave up Dandekar's House seat to take the Senate seat. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.


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District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

Several names repeat themselves in different races on the east side of Cedar Rapids.

Senate District 33

Registration: D 16493, R 11122, N 13692, total 41373, D+ 5371
Incumbent: Rob Hogg, D-Cedar Rapids

Hogg picked up a newly configured House seat in 2002, overcoming a serious GOP effort by former city official Don Palmer by about 600 votes. Hogg moved over to the Senate in 2006, defeating one Schulte, Renee, 59%-41% for a Democratic gain in what had been Chuck Larson's seat. He was re-elected unopposed in 2010 and holds over till 2014.

The old Senate seat had a good Democratic edge (3751 in April 2011) but as seen in 2002 was winnable for Republican Larson. The new lines improve things significantly for Hogg. He loses the Bowman Woods area in northeast Cedar Rapids and the core of downtown, and adds the Czech Village area.

House District 65

Registration: D 8953, R 4788, N 6354, total 20131, D+ 4165
Incumbent: Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids

When Hogg went to the Senate in 2006, Don Palmer tried again, but Olson won easily with 65%. A 2008 Republican opponent quit, and Olson beat an independent in 2010.

The district remains centered in southeast Cedar Rapids. On the north, Olson gives two precincts, 37 and 39, to Schulte. He gains the core of downtown and, jumping the river, Czech Village, both from Kirsten Running-Marquardt. The shifts make his solid Democratic district about 800 Democrats more solid. The convoluted city limits mean this district keeps a long skinny tail along the Cedar River almost to Bertram that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes.

House District 66

Registration: D 7540, R 6334, N 7338, total 21242, D + 1206
Incumbent: Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids

Two years after her Senate loss to Hogg, Schulte came back for a landslide 13 vote House win over one-term Dem Art Staed. Democrats put her on top of the target list for 2010, but wound up playing defense instead of offense, and highly touted attorney Mark Seidl lost by an underwhelming 1100 votes.

Schulte's lines on the north remain the north city limits of Cedar Rapids, though that line itself has moved north and gives the district a strange pair of horns wrapping around Hiawatha. But on the south, where the old line was approximately 29th Street, she picks up two precincts and 900 extra Democrats.

The old district was closely divided, with a Democratic edge of 369, and Staed had won in 2006 by just 365. But as Schulte picks up two precincts to the south, she picks up 900 more Democrats. She was unhappy enough that she was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. Look for Schulte to again be high on the Democratic target list.


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District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

Senate District 32

Registration: D 11414, R 11045, N 17121, total 39602, D+ 369
Incumbent: Brian Schoenjahn, D-Arlington

Schoenjahn was first elected in 2004 with 53% in an open seat race when two term Republican Kitty Rehberg stepped down. He scored an easy 2008 re-elect with 63%.

About two thirds of the old district was two whole counties that met only at a corner: Clayton and Buchanan. The remaining third of the population was made up of what looked like leftover pieces: Black Hawk east of Waterloo, Delaware north of Manchester, and southern and eastern Fayette outside of Oelwein and West Union. That included Schoenjahn's Arlington home.

The new district shifts west, entirely out of Clayton and Delaware. Schoenjahn instead picks up all of Bremer County. Most of Buchanan remains, except four townships and the city of Rowley. Hekeeps parts of Fayette and Black Hawk but the lines change significantly. The Fayette County lines move south and west to add Oelwein, removing Waudena, Fayette and Elgin. In Black Hawk, the district loses the southeast corner around La Porte City. The new line follows the Cedar Falls, Waterloo and Raymond city limits, with everything north and east going to Schoenjahn.

Schoenjahn's old district 12 had a more comfortable Democratic registration edge of 1,269 and the changes drop that margin to 369. Some of the new turf on the west belonged to Bill Dix, who's now paired up in Senate 25 with Rob Bacon. The Dix family farm is reportedly in this seat; does Dix move in and let Bacon hold over in Senate 25? (This would also put Dix back in the 1st CD if the congressional bug bites again.)

House District 63

Registration: D 5225, R 6395, N 9128, total 20761, R+ 1170
No Incumbent

Last decade, Bremer County was split between two House districts, Republican Pat Grassley's Butler-based 17th and Democrat Andrew Wenthe's Oelwein-centered 18th. But it was united in Senate District 9, which changed hands twice. Republican Bob Brunkhorst moved over from the House in 2002 (barely winning the primary) In 2006, Democrat Bill Heckroth won a hard-fought open seat race with
53%.

Heckroth was targeted in a big, big way by the Republicans in 2010. Bill Dix, who had left the House 17 seat in 2006 to run unsuccessfully in the 1st District congressional primary, was on the comeback trail and was the top fundraiser in the state (outside of legislative leadership). That and the wave were too much for Heckroth, who lost 58-42.

But now it's Heckroth on the comeback trail. He's announced very early for a seat where an undivided Bremer County makes up 80% of the population. Almost all the north Black Hawk section was in the old seat, too. The only brand-new turf is the city of Dunkerton (the Senate lines wrapped around it) and a couple townships east of Waterloo. The district still has a GOP registration edge, but the numbers are better than the Senate seat (R + 3820) was.

One district west, Grandson Grassley lives close to the lines, and is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney. He had a lot of this turf, including Waverly, last decade. Grassley says he won't move, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about Grassley moving here.

House District 64

Registration: D 6189, R 4650, N 7993, total 18841, D +1539
Incumbent: Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence

First elected in 2002, Rasmussen saw close races. He held on for a 499 vote win against the 2006 wave, then sat out a term after a 759 vote loss to Democrat Gene Ficken in 2008. In the high-profile, high-dollar -- broadcast TV ads in both Waterloo and Cedar Rapids -- 2010 rematch, Rasmussen prevailed by just 208 votes.

With that margin in mind, it's significant that Democrats gain about 200 registered voters
under the new lines. This makes Rasmussen a must-target for Democrats in 2012. Just to the north, Democrat Andrew Wenthe is in a pair-up with a fellow Democrat, Roger Thomas, in a district with a Republican edge. One option is Wenthe moving here, which overlaps quite a bit with his old seat.

Rasmussen keeps almost all of Buchanan County except four small rural townships and Rowley in the southeast. The old turf included southeastern Black Hawk, including LaPorte City and Gilbertville. All of Black Hawk is now gone. The new district goes north into southern Fayette County, taking in Oelwein, Arlington, Maynard, Westgate and Randalia. It stops south of Fayette and Wadena.


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District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

Senate District 31

Registration: D 16166, R 6529, N 13458, total 36176, D+ 9637
Incumbent: Bill Dotzler, D-Waterloo

An excellent Democratic district gets even better with minor line changes. Dotzler moved over to the Senate in 2002 after three terms in the House and has had easy races, winning with 63% in 2010. He keeps all of Waterloo northeast of the river and a similar chunk of the southeast, along with Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. The changes are at the edges and are a bigger deal on the map than on the demographics. Dotzler gives up a couple rural fragments and picks up a couple different townships, Gilbertville and Washburn.

House District 61

Registration: D 7062, R 4058, N 6969, total 18,099, D+ 3004
Incumbent: Anesa Kajtazovic, D-Waterloo

Old House 21 had four winners in four cycles. Former TV anchor Tami Wiencek upset longtime legislator Don Shoultz in 2006 for one of the few Republican gains anywhere in the nation that year. Wiencek cut an earnest and moderate profile in her term, but when the chips were down she voted the party line which didn't help in this district. Democrats fought local celebrity with local celebrity, and recruited a seemingly top-tier candidate in former Hawkeye football star Kerry Burt to take the seat back in 2008.

But Burt self-destructed with personal and ethical issues in his first term. Privately Democrats hoped and begged for Burt to step down, but he went ahead and filed for re-election. Enter Anesa Kajtazovic and her feel-good biography: Bosnian refugee gets through college in three years. Burt didn't drop out until he was actually indicted in the school tuition case, after the deadline to take his name off the ballot. So technically Kajtazovic, the only Democrat with the nerve to step up and actually challenge him, beat Burt in the primary with 91% of the vote, which has to be some kind of record against an incumbent.

Republicans who had hoped for an easy gain against a scandalized incumbent were helpless against Kajtazovic, who beat former Waterloo mayor John Rooff with 59% to immediately earn two lines in the record books: first Bosnian-Iowan in the Legislature and at age 24 the youngest female legislator in state history. She's been winning headlines for hard work and enthusiasm, and Kajtazovic is a good bet to be the first incumbent re-elected out of this district since Shoultz in 2004.

Kajtazovic keeps roughly the same chunk of southeast Waterloo. The district grows to the south and east, gaining four rural townships, Gilbertville and Washburn. She sheds Eagle Township south of town. The changes help the district's Democratic margin by about 350 registered voters.

House District 62

Registration: D 9104, R 2471, N 6489, total 18,077, D+ 6633
Incumbent: Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo

Berry, who was then in her first city council term, finished first in the 2002 primary when this seat opened up. But she only won 33%, short of the 35% required. The district then saw two (!) special nominating conventions and some hard feelings, before Berry finally emerged as the nominee after the second convention. (To be direct: three African-American candidates, including Berry, split the primary vote. A poorly attended first convention nominated the lone non-black candidate, who was later persuaded to step down.)

Republicans saw an opening amidst the hard feelings and nominated former county supervisor Norm Granger (yet another ex-Hawkeye footballer). Waterloo has had some history with black Republicans, electing Granger and longtime supervisor Leon Mosley. But the partisan lean of the district helped Berry to a two to one win, with smooth sailing since. A 2006 opponent dropped out, then Berry won an easy three to one 2008 primary win against a power plant opponent (Berry has been, shall we say, utility-friendly in her career). No opposition at all in 2010.

The new district keeps its core: all of Waterloo northeast of the Cedar River. Berry picks up about a precinct in town, loses Poyner township, and keeps Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. This is the second most Democratic district in the state, ranking between the two Iowa City seats.


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District of the Day: Senate District 30, House Districts 59 and 60

District of the Day: Senate District 30, House Districts 59 and 60

Cedar Falls may be UNI-ted behind the Panthers, but it's closely divided politically. A lot of tight races here the last few years, and with the lines not changing much we should see more squeakers.

Senate District 30

Registration: D 11778, R 12128, N 14707, total 38695, R+ 350
Incumbent: Jeff Danielson, D-Cedar Falls

After narrowly losing a 2002 House race, firefighter Jeff Danielson gained this seat comfortably when Republican Don Redfern retired in 2004. It was much more dramatic four years later. Danielson held on by a recount-close 22 vote margin over Walt Rogers. This remains a swing district that Democrats will need to hold.

While he may get a tough 2012 race, at least Danielson will know the turf. He has the whole city of Cedar Falls, which makes up about two thirds of the seat. He drops two townships north of Cedar Falls and the line shifts just a little in Waterloo.

House District 59

Registration: D 5752, R 5264, N 7071, total 18150, D + 488
Incumbent: Bob Kressig, D-Cedar Falls

Kressig, 57, took this seat from one term Republican Ervin Dennis in 2004 by less than 200 votes. He held on for a 106 vote 2006 win over GOP heavy hitter Matt Riesetter, won comfortably for the first time in 2008, and scored a 52% to 48% over bar owner Darin Beck in 2010.

The line through Cedar Falls stays identical. Kressig has the northern two-thirds or so of the city geographically and 3/4 of the city's population, including the campus. He gives up two townships west of town as the district pulls all the way into the city limits. That gives him a couple hundred more Democrats, which given Kressig's past margins is a big deal.

House District 60

Registration: D 6026, R 6864, N 7636, total 20545, R+ 838
Incumbent: Walt Rogers, R-Cedar Falls

UPDATE July 18: Waterloo City Council member Bob Greenwood announces on the Democratic side.

After Rogers missed it by THAT much against Danielson in 2008, he set his sights on the House and Six Pack conservaDem Doris Kelley. She had picked up this seat in the 2006 Democratic wave and beat a late starter easily in 2008. No recount this time for Rogers, as he beat Kelley by almost 1000 votes.

Little changes in The Map for Rogers. He keeps the same piece of south Cedar Falls, the city of Hudson, and a similar chunk of southwest Waterloo. (One precinct, it looks like, goes to Deborah Berry.) He adds the two townships that Kressig sheds, as the district's Republican registration edge improves by about 400 voters. Does he stay with that, or does he go after Danielson again?

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An Overdue Look at the GOP Field

An Overdue Look at the GOP Field

Craig Robinson at THE Iowa Republican (is that like THE Ohio State University?) looks at the Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa Republican caucus preferences, candidate by candidate. This is prompting a few Random Deeth Thoughts, in order of poll finish.

1) A Romney Iowa win, unlikely and unpalatable as it may seem, can still happen but it's more luck than skill. Mitt Romney seems to have a ceiling of support around 30% in Iowa, and make that a bit less as he loses some of his `08 support. If the field stays splintered and Ames doesn't force too many people out, Romney can do what Bob Dole did in 1996: score in the upper 20s and finish first.

1a) There's not room in the field for Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.

2) I know that early on I joked "Morrie Taylor + Alan Keyes = Herman Cain" but now it looks more like he's filling the Steve Forbes niche, plus whatever residual part of the Trump support was for Generic Businessman as opposed to Bigger and Better Birther. We can check Cain out on Monday as he makes the BVP FAMiLY Leader tour.

3) Tina Fey said it best the Saturday before the 2008 election, standing next to John McCain: "I'm either runnin' in four years or I'm gonna be the white Oprah so, you know, I'm good either way." Palin is runnin' for White Oprah, not for president.

4) Newt Gingrich is the Fred Thompson of this field: the idea of the candidacy seemed better than the reality.

5) There's not room in the field for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. Fortunately for Bachmann, Palin is not in this field.

5 1/2 ) There's not room in the field for two Minnesotans.

6) The old joke goes something like this:

A large multinational dog food company decided to come out with the latest and greatest dog food. They had their research scientists design the most nutritious combination of ingredients, containing all the essential vitamins and amino acids required by dogs. They had the marketing department put together a most colorful advertisement and a catchy jingo was thought up for their TV commercial. And they spent gobs of money on TV advertising and splashy full page magazine ads. The engineers designed equipment to make this dog food in the most efficient manner, and the packaging department designed a beautiful box for it. The sales force was trained, and every supermarket chain had shelf space devoted to the dog food.

It did not sell.

So the company CEO gathered his top executives together to have a meeting to discover why. He asked each department "Why isn't our dog food selling?" The research department said there couldn't possibly be anything wrong with their formulation. Marketing was completely stumped. The sales force was mystified. No one had a clue as to what was wrong. Finally, after a long pause, a new employee sitting in the back of the room finally got the courage to say "But the dogs don't like it!"

That's Tim Pawlenty.

7) Ron Paul has a ceiling and a floor of support so close together it's a crawl space. Will make 80 percent of the online noise and take 10 percent of the vote just like last time. That 10 percent will be indigestible by any other candidate, so Paul will continue through the last primary then endorse one of the third party candidates, with no consequences within the House GOP caucus. Just like last time. And just like next time only with Rand. (There's not room in the field for Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.)

8) Rick Santorum is the Sam Brownback of the field, Roy Moore is the John Cox of the field: most likely to vanish after Ames. Who did I forget? If I did it proves the point. Oh, yeah. There isn't room in the field for Buddy Roemer, period.

9) He'll be kept out of debates and probably Ames, but if enough Democrats follow Ed Fallon's suggestion to ratf*** the process to "save the caucuses," Fred Karger will finish ahead of somebody "legitimate." (Democrats: the best way to save the caucuses for 2016 and beyond is to re-elect the president who got his critical early win in Iowa.)

10) This, unless Palin is actually doing something, is the field. Republican Jesus, in the form of Jeb, Christie, Obi-Wan Kenobi You're Our Only Hope, or Zombie Reagan, will not arrive on a white horse to save the day.

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.

Senate District 29

Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa and Tom Hancock, D-Epworth Hancock will retire; Bowman holds over with no election..

The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.

Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.

Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.

Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.

Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.

House District 57

Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent: Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna UPDATE January 5: Lukan not running.

Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.

Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."

That said, he might be able to get away with a move next door into open House 96 in Delaware and Jones. The Iowa Republican also considers Lukan as a possible retirement (a funny term for a guy in his early 30s) noting Lukan is getting married this summer in Des Moines. Administration job? In any case, as an insurance agent, he's more mobile than the two members paired in House 58...

House District 58

Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle and Lee Hein, R-Monticello

UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.

UPDATE November 10: Schueller to seek comeback.

...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?

Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.

The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?

Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.

The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.


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District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56

District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56

UPDATE December 22: Wenthe retiring, Thomas staying, Beard running for Senate.


Senate District 28

Registration: D 11590, R 13174, N 15205, total 39999, R+ 1584
No Incumbent

House District 55

Registration: D 5909, R 6694, N 7269, total 19895, R+ 785
Incumbents: Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye and Roger Thomas, D-Elkader

Wenthe's old district was anchored by Oelwein and included most of Fayette, the eastern half of Bremer and part of northern Black Hawk. It had a Republican lean about the same as this seat.

Thomas had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable.

The new district changes radically. It includes the part of north Fayette where Wenthe lives and just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, which happens to be where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek, which neither one of them had before (see below).

Wenthe and Thomas seem to be working out their pair, at least according to Wenthe:

"Politically, it wasn't the most perfect map for either Roger or me," Wenthe said. "But that's sort of how the system works and we both voted for it because it was deemed to be a well-constructed map."

Wenthe said he or Thomas could move into the open Senate District 28, which covers parts or all of Winneshiek, Fayette, Allamakee and Clayton counties. Or one could move south to challenge Rep. Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence, in House District 64.

Based on which district has more of the old turf, the Senate seat seems to be a better fit for Thomas. The Senate district has all of his Clayton base plus all of Allamakee, most of Winneshiek and north Fayette, going south to Fayette and Wadena. House 64 goes south to Oelwein and Independence so that move would be more apropos for Wenthe.

House District 56

Registration: D 5681, R 6480, N 7936, total 20104, R+ 799
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester

This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.

And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard. (If you want to think of it as a silver lining, if Beard had won a second term, House 55 would have been an all-Democratic triple-up with Wenthe and Thomas.)

The friends and neighbors dynamic explains this race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district.

Hager, who's announced for a second term, sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans, but he does get the pink elephant at the Miss Marquette casino which should make for a great photo op.

District of the Day: Senate District 27, House Districts 53 and 54

District of the Day: Senate District 27, House Districts 53 and 54



Senate District 27

Registration: D 11714, R 13115, N 16017, total 40865, R+ 1401
Incumbent: Amanda Ragan, D-Mason City

Fellow Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm's gain is Ragan's loss. Ragan keeps Mason City, but her new turf goes south and west instead of north and east. She drops Floyd and Mitchell counties and gains Franklin, the northern part of Butler, and the western, Clear Lake half of Cerro Gordo.

The old district lines gave Ragan a 2500 Democrat voter registration edge. Under the new lines that turns into a deficit of 1400.

Ragan, 56, won a hurry-up special during the 2002 session and her first full term that fall. The only good news for Ragan is she was just re-elected two to one over a weak opponent in 2010, so she holds over till 2014.

House District 53

Registration: D 7244, R 4642, N 8426, total 20322, D+ 2602
Incumbent: Sharon Steckman, D-Mason City

The Lines Draw Themselves: The ideal House district size is 1 percent of the state population. In the 1990s Mason City was just above that size, and got split down Highway 18 to dominate two districts. But in 2000 the population dropped to just 91 people less than the perfect size, and at that point the rules keep cities together and Mason City WAS the district.

This decade, the seat adds a township on the north and three on the south plus the city of Rockwall, splitting Cerro Gordo into a vertically striped configuration. But that doesn't change things politically; incumbent Sharon Steckman keeps roughly the same Democratic edge.

This was probably the most Democratic district held by Republicans for most of the 2000s. The representatives for the two halves of town both got paired up in 2002 and both quit. Republican Roger Broers, then in his first term after years on the Board of Supervisors,  was expected to run again, but stepped down for health reasons right before the deadline (by election day he had passed away).

Bill Schickel was the late-starting Republican. Democrats attempted to nudge their candidate aside to recruit a stronger candidate for the now-open seat... but the candidate wouldn't be nudged. So Schickel, in a mild upset, won the seat by about 500 votes. The Democrats made two more decent efforts, but were never able to knock him off.

Schickel stepped down in 2008, and is now keeping occupied on the Republican state central committee. As for the district, it finally turned Democratic. Steckman (whose husband had been Schickel's opponent two years earlier) won comfortably.

House District 54

Registration: D 4470, R 8473, N 7591, total 20543, R+ 4003
No Incumbent UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move into this seat.

House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has her name on this district. She's looking to move to Clear Lake to get out of the triple-up with Stew Iverson and Henry Rayhons.

In addition to a new house Upmeyer would get nearly 2000 more Republicans, and she could safely focus on the duties of leadership like recruiting, fundraising, and campaigning for others.

She and the district would move out of Hancock County to keep western Cerro Gordo, including Clear Lake, and all of Franklin County. The new turf adds northern Butler County from Pat Grassley's district (Grassley of course has his own problems, namely Annette Sweeney, who might have been able to move here if Upmeyer hadn't called dibs).

But complicating matters, Craig Robinson notes: "Gabe Haugland, a dynamic young conservative who has been active in Republican politics and is back from a recent deployment in Afghanistan, wants to run for the Iowa House in House District 54, an open seat that includes Clear Lake, where he lives." It depends on how badly Upmeyer wants to move to the lake and how badly the 75 year old Rayhons wants to stay in office. In any case, with these numbers the Democrats are kind of an afterthought here.


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Linux Monday 3.0

Linux Monday 3.0

Actually, I'm way past 3.0 on these. But 3.0 is Today's Big Number as Linux godfather Linus Torvalds (referred to as simply "Linus" in the Linux universe) announces a release candidate for version 3.0 of the kernel.

This would seem a Big Deal, as kernel updates typically just roll the last digit of the odometer (my kurrent kernel, for example, is 2.6.38.4). But Linus begs off: "I decided to just bite the bullet, and call the next version 3.0. It will get released close enough to the 20-year mark, which is excuse enough for me, although honestly, the real reason is just that I can no longer comfortably count as high as 40."

Phoronix notes:

Some of the notable items that are new to this kernel release include:

- Cleancache support, with initial implementations for the EXT4 and Btrfs file-systems, among others.
- A Microsoft Kinect Linux driver.
- Various open-source graphics driver improvements. This includes Sandy Bridge performance optimizations, initial support for Intel Ivy Bridge, early work for AMD Fusion Llano APUs, and many other Intel / Radeon / Nouveau changes.

Another upcoming release of note: Linux Mint 11. Historically, Mint has been Ubuntu pre-tweaked to be media friendly, as the Ubuntu folks hold back on things like DVD and .mp3 codecs for assorted legal reasons. This time, Mint is that AND it's using the traditional Ubuntu GNOME desktop, instead of the new Unity which has been a controversial switch in Ubuntu 11.04.

Another controversial Ubuntu move has been its app store which, in a selling ice to the Eskimos trick, could actually be convincing people to PAY for Linux software.

Here's an argument that desktop innovation in Mac world and the evil Windows empire is being driven by Linux.

For the geeks: an explanation of Linux file systems ext2, ext3 and ext4.

And finally, a lesson in job security: how to write code that is impossible for anyone else to maintain.

District of the Day: Senate District 26, House Districts 51 and 52

District of the Day: Senate District 26, House Districts 51 and 52



Senate District 26

Registration: D 12,775, R 11,468, N 16,544, total 40,804, D+ 1307
Incumbents: Merlin Bartz, R-Grafton and Mary Jo Wilhelm, D-Cresco

For the second straight decade, redistricting has been unkind to Merlin Bartz. He first went to the Senate in 1992 after one House term, then won again in 1996 and 2000. He used his free-ride year in 1998 to run for secretary of agriculture, but in a bit of an upset lost the primary.

In `01, Bartz got paired up with Thurman Gaskill in the 2001 map, and resolved that problem by resigning during the 2002 session to take a Bush 43 administration Department of Agriculture job. That let Gaskill, in an even number district, hold over till 2004. When Gaskill retired in 2008, Bartz moved right back in.

Bartz goes from having a comfortable Republican registration edge of nearly 5000 to a district with a Democratic edge and a Democratic incumbent.

Mary Jo Wilhelm knocked off two-term Republican Mark Zieman in 2008; Zieman's dad had held the seat before him. The old district had a break-even registration and was four whole counties: Wilhelm's base of Howard (where she was a supervisor) plus Chickasaw, Winneshiek and Alamakee. Wilhelm won by about 1000 votes and carried all four counties. She keeps Howard, Chickasaw and a corner of Winneshiek, but loses Decorah and most of the Winneshiek population. (Decorah trended very blue that year.)

The new district partners didn't even border each other before; they were separated by Democrat Amanda Ragan. The Bartz seat was his home county of Worth plus Winnebago, Hancock, Franklin, and most of the land in Cerro Gordo; he had Clear Lake but Ragan had Mason City. His 1990s district was Worth, all of Cerro Gordo, and a corner of Mitchell.

Floyd and Mitchell Counties, and a piece of eastern Cerro Gordo up to the limits of Mason City, come in from Ragan's old seat. This turf is new to Wilhelm and mostly new to Bartz. This is good news for Wilhelm (but bad news for Ragan; check back tomorrow.)

So Wilhelm has the geographic advantage, and a voter registration edge too, and has announced she'll run in this seat next year. Indeed, it's better than her old district, which was break-even. Bartz has nowhere else to go, though, and if Republicans are serious about taking control of the Senate this is a seat they'll need to target. With Jack Kibbie retiring and Pat Ward moving, this looks like the most likely two incumbent, Democrat vs. Republican Senate race in the state.

This is the second of the two Senate districts that are split between Congressional districts. (The other was Dennis Black's 15th district, split between Loebsack and Boswell/Latham.) Here, House 51 goes east into Braley's district, while House 52 is part of the east extension of Steve King's.

House District 51

Registration: D 5953, R 6206, N 7834, total 20000, R+ 253
Incumbent: Josh Byrnes, R-Osage

Republicans picked up this seat easily in 2010 when six term Democrat Mark Kuhn stepped down. Josh Byrnes had easily won the a Republican primary and beat Kurt Meyer, a losing candidate in the 2008 Democratic congressional primary, by 2400 votes.

The district remains a swing seat but the lines change a lot. Byrnes keeps only his home county of Mitchell, which is about a third of a district. The old turf, District 14, went south into Floyd, which was Kuhn's base and made up more than half of the district, and eastern Cerro Gordo. New district 51 goes west to Worth and east to Howard and a corner of Winneshiek. The three whole counties are similar in size.

House District 52

Registration: D 6822, R 5262, N 8710, total 20804, D+ 1560
Incumbent: Brian Quirk, D-New Hampton

Brian Quirk is the sole survivor of the "Six Pack" of conservative Democratic legislators who stopped key bills, including labor's must-pass list, in 2009 and `10. Delores Mertz, faced with likely defeat after a 42 vote 2008 win, retired. The other four - Geri Huser, Larry Marek, McKinley Bailey and Doris Kelley - all lost. Quirk has maintained that cautious conservaDem approach this session.

Quirk was first elected in 2000. His district changed little in 2002; it was still his Chickasaw County base plus Howard and a piece of western Winneshiek. Under those lines he won by 900 votes in the tough 2010 cycle.

This decade his district moves west. Quirk keeps all of Chickasaw, but now Floyd County makes up the largest piece of the district. Quirk also gets that small strip of eastern Cerro Gordo. The changes give Quirk 500 more Democrats, and 500 less excuses to ditch the party on key votes.


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District of the Day: Senate District 25, House Districts 49 and 50

District of the Day: Senate District 25, House Districts 49 and 50



Two pair makes for a full House, and Senate, in the worst redistricting headache for Republicans.

Senate District 25

Registration: D 9411, R 15497, N 15165, total 40105, R+ 6086
Incumbents: Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock and Rob Bacon, R-Maxwell

UPDATE September 9: Bacon moving to House 48, where he'll have a rematch with Olive.

Bill Dix and Rob Bacon both knocked off Democratic incumbents in 2010, when their districts didn't even border each other. Both live at the very edge of this district. If one backs down, the other holds over in a solidly Republican seat. Neither has a good option to move.

Bacon, who vanquished Landslide Rich Olive, looks like he keeps the larger home turf, the non-Ames part of Story County. The old Bacon district went north and west: Hamilton, Wright, and a little of Webster, all of which he loses. His Maxwell home is maybe a couple miles north of Democrat Dennis Black's swingy district, but that has no overlap with Bacon's old seat which had the same south line. A couple of his old townships overlap with Herman Quirmbach, but that's a good Democratic district.

Dix, who defeated Bill Heckroth, keeps only part of Butler County: Aplington, Parkersburg, New Hartford and his Shell Rock home. He used to go east to Bremer, most of Fayette, and north rural Black Hawk. A lot of that turf to the east is in new Senate 32, now a swingy district held by Democrat Brian Schoenjahn.

Dix gave up his House seat to run Congress in 2006 when Jim Nussle retired, but lost in the primary. Unfortunately for Dix, this area is NOT in Bruce Braley's district; it's in that little easternmost extension of Steve King's.

Bacon and Dix could just duke it out in a primary on relatively neutral ground. Half the district is Hardin and Grundy counties, which neither had before.

House District 49

Registration: D 4999, R 6948, N 7788, total 19755, R+ 1949
Incumbent: Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada

Deyoe was a late starting candidate in 2006, and the only Republican winner in the game of musical chairs that started with Stew Iverson dropping out of his race after being deposed as Senate leader. He won a solid 62% in 2010 against 2006 congressional candidate Selden Spencer (the one the entire Iowa lefty blogosphere kept talking up while ignoring Dave Loebsack).

Deyoe is also the only legislator in the neighborhood who gets lucky in redistricting. This remains a Nevada and rural Story based district, with a couple townships shifting and Story City staying. He sheds southeast Hamilton County and gets the southern half of Hardin, with little impact on the party balance.

House District 50

Registration: D 4412, R 8549, N 7377, total 20350, R+ 4137
Incumbents: Annette Sweeney, R-Alden and Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford.
UPDATE July 7: Both have now announced in this district.

In this corner, a rising star of the legislature. In that corner, a U.S. Senator in waiting. This is one of the two seats, along with the triple-up in House 8, that nearly put the whole Map at risk. And while we have some ideas what could happen in 8, there's no clue yet as to how this one gets worked out.

Since the day Pat Grassley announced for the legislature in 2006, when Bill Dix left to run for Congress, I've been saying The Masterplan is for him to take over for Grandpa in 2016. No one ever denies this. If he comes out of this map alive, he turns the magic Senator age of 30 during the next term, in 2013. He shared the ballot with Grandpa for the first time last year, and no Democrat was up for that challenge.

Sweeney was first elected in 2008. Democrat Tim Hoy had given Polly Granzow a scare in 2006, and Granzow retired. Hoy tried again but Sweeney won by 1000 votes, then scored a two to one win in 2010. Sweeney carried the ball on the no videotaping of farms bill (taking matters into her own hands on one occasion).

The old Sweeney and Grassley districts met at a corner. Grassley had all of Butler, then went east into Bremer to pick up Waverly. Sweeney's old 44th district had all of Hardin (this map has just the north half), then went south to pick up rural Marshall. The 2001 mappers also looped the Wright-Franklin county line around the city of Dows to keep it together. Since precincts can't be divided between legislative districts, and since it was the only part of Franklin in old district 44, the Franklin County part of Dows was the smallest precinct in the state at 40 voters. This cycle, it doesn't seem like there's anything that small.

Whoever stays, or wins, gets a more Republican district than they had before. Grundy County is new to both. Both representatives are farmers, making moving more difficult than, say, buying a house in a different part of West Des Moines or Iowa City.

Grassley has definitively said he's not moving, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about a move into Waverly-based House 63. It's empty, but Bill Heckroth is on the comeback trail and has already announced.

Sweeney was one of the seven no votes on the map, saying districts were not compact enough and citing the split of Hardin County.

My prediction? Look for Terry Branstad or Bill Northey to offer Sweeney a job sometime around the filing deadline.

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District of the Day: Senate District 24, House Districts 47 and 48

District of the Day: Senate District 24, House Districts 47 and 48

Senate District 24

Registration: D 12565, R 12944, N 15395, total 40931, R+ 379
Incumbent: Jerry Behn, R-Boone

Behn, 57, went to the Senate in 1996, knocking off Democratic incumbent Al Sorensen. Sorensen made a comeback attempt in 2008 but lost 59% to 41%. That must have fueled Behn's ambitions, and he launched a brief, inexplicable run for governor in 2009, until his constituent Terry Branstad got into the race.

A lot changes for Behn with this map. He keeps his Boone County base, in fact he now has the whole county. But he loses more constituents than he keeps, because the old lines went south to take in most of Dallas County, which now dominates TWO new districts. Indeed, Behn's old turf had the second most registered voters of any Senate district, behind only Jack Whitver in Ankeny. Behn keeps none of that high-growth Dallas turf. Instead, he gets bits of Story and Webster and all of Hamilton and Greene. Losing Dallas County costs Behn about 3,000 registered Republicans and turns this into a swing district. It's even numbered, which means Behn runs next year.

House District 47

Registration: D 6574, R 6499, N 8095, total 21184, D+ 75
Incumbent: Chip Baltimore, R-Boone

Republican Chip Baltimore won one of 2010's biggest upsets and closest races, defeating Democrat Donovan Olson by just 23 votes in a seat with an 1100 Democratic registration edge.

Baltimore keeps most of Boone County, including the city and everything west. A few townships shift around on the east. He gives up Perry in north Dallas county, an area that Olson won. Instead gets all of Greene County. This changes the margin from a Democratic seat to a very close swing seat. Still, this is the kind of place Democrats need to win back if they want to recapture the House.

House District 48

Registration: D 5991, R 6445, N 7300, total 19747, R+ 454
No Incumbent (Lisa Heddens, D-Ames, moving to House 46)

UPDATE June 7: Heddens makes move to 46 official; former Sen. Rich Olive (D-Story City) announces for House 48

UPDATE September 9: Senator Rob Bacon is moving in and will have a rematch with Olive.

Update Oct. 7: Olive out.

Hamilton County makes up about half of this district. That was home base for two-term Democrat McKinley Bailey, who lost to Stew Iverson in 2010. The new seat also includes parts of rural Boone County, southeast Webster County and a little corner of Story, going all the way up to the Ames city limits. New 48 is good Republican territory, but not great, and could be winnable for the right Democrat.

But it's really unfamiliar territory for Lisa Heddens, the Ames-based legislator who lives in that one township just north of the city limits. She's announced her move back into 46, which opens up a slot for Landslide Rich Olive.

Olive, as you may recall, started out in 2006 challenging Iverson. But then Stew quit the race after being deposed as Senate GOP leader. The wave of `06 crested high enough to sweep Olive in by 61 votes over the GOP replacement candidate, then-Rep. Jim Kurtenbach.

It was in with the wave, out with the wave for Olive, who lost to Rob Bacon last year. But that Senate seat was fairly Republican, with a registration edge of 3290. This seat has a Republican edge of 454, putting it into swing territory.

The Republican this seat could be an escape route for is David Tjepkes, paired with tea party freshman Tom Shaw. He lives in Gowrie, just a few miles beyond the lines. But there's very little overlap with his old turf, which ran south to Greene and west to Calhoun.

So that could be a problem. But it's nothing compared to the problems for Republicans we'll see tomorrow.

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What to do with Edwards?

What to do with Edwards?

What's the appropriate punishment for John Edwards?

I assume everyone here knows the Big Story and that there's a large overlap between people who read my blog and people who have read The Politician. But the facet of the moment is: the Justice Department is about ready to file charges, specifically that he illegally used campaign money for hush money for the Baby Mama. I don't think that's the exact wording of the charges.

Anyway, reports are that Team Edwards is trying to work out a plea deal.

None of this is meant as a dig at anyone who supported him. It was all so brilliantly and carefully hidden from us hicks here in earnest sincere Caucus Land. It took the cynicism of the National Enquirer to tear down the facade.

But I have a question. How can you punish John Edwards?

There will be some symbolic legal penalty, I'm sure, whether it's after a trial or instead of one. But we're stuck with a cliche here: there's nothing the legal system can do that actually "punishes" John Edwards worse than what he has already done to himself. That's an observation, not an excuse.

Look at the options:

Disbar him? Maybe, which is probably why Edwards seems eager to avoid a felony charge. But that is, as the lawyers say, a moot point. If your freedom or money was on the line would you hire John Edwards? Jury: "Well, his lawyer's guilty, so he must be guilty too." His political influence is worse than zero, it's an active negative, so he won't get a corporate lobbying type gig.

And grunt legal work isn't worth his time. Can you imagine the guy who, even as the news of the affair and the baby broke STILL imagined himself as Attorney General, sitting in an office drawing up contracts and wills? Edwards is so rich you can't fine him enough to hurt him, without said fine being disproportionate to the crime.

Community service for life? He might actually like that. But that does him more good than harm. It might be what he does on his own, which thus makes it Not Punishment.

Wasting a jail cell seems like overkill, though others have done time for campaign finance fraud. He's not exactly at risk to re-offend, since it's a reasonably safe bet he'll never again GET a campaign contribution, let alone have the opportunity to misuse one.

And even hard time doesn't damage his reputation further. Even any facts that may come out at a trial are less damning than the facts we already know. The legal issue seems to be whether the money in question was a campaign donation or a "personal gift." Which even makes it worse; with all his money, he had to use someone else's money to bribe his girlfriend so he could hide it from his dying wife. Rumor has it the next edition of Merriam-Webster will have a picture of Edwards next to the definition of cad.

Richard Nixon managed to at least partially rehabilitate himself, to a greater degree than which Edwards seems capable. In part that's because Nixon's achievents, like them or not, were proportionally greater.

And with Nixon as the only possible exception, no one has risen so high in American politics only to fall so hard for reasons of his own bad judgment than John Edwards. That's the punishment, really.

District of the Day: Senate District 23, House Districts 45 and 46

District of the Day: Senate District 23, House Districts 45 and 46

Senate District 23

Registration: D 12627, R 9542, N 13800, total 36144, D+ 3085
Incumbent: Herman Quirmbach, D-Ames

Ames will be ground zero for Democrats next year. Christie Vilsack's chances of knocking off Steve King depend largely on high Democratic turnout in Ames. But as for the legislative races, things should be quiet.

Herman Quirmbach went from the Ames city council to the Senate in 2002, winning a bit of a primary upset when Johnie Hammond retired. He then beat one-term Rep. Barbara Finch, the only Republican to win a core Ames district in recent years, in November. Quirmbach, 60, held on with an unexpectedly close 53% in 2010.

Ames' census population of 58,965 is just short of the ideal Senate district size of 61,076. With the Legislative Service Agency's directive to keep cities together where possible, that pretty much determined the district lines. The seat shrinks all the way into Story County, losing a few rural Boone townships. It keeps a rural township south of town, adds a couple to the east, but loses rural Story to the north. The Democratic edge of the district barely changes, and Quirmbach holds over till 2014.

House District 45

Registration: D 6291, R 4487, N 6760, total 17619, D+ 1804
Incumbent: Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, D-Ames

House District 46

Registration: D 6336, R 5055, N 7040, total 18525, D+ 1281
Incumbent: Lisa Heddens, D-Ames

Ames is still split into a north and south district. The east-west line across town moves south and shifts the bulk of the Iowa State campus from the southern district, 45, into the north district, 46. (Trivia: Ames, and the Boone area we'll visit tomorrow, are about the only spots in the state where the district numbers don't change.)

That pulls 46 entirely into the city limits and makes this one of those My District Just Not My House deals: 46 loses rural Franklin Township just north of the city, and that's where Lisa Heddens' house is. Expectations are official as of June 7, she moves back into her district. New 46 has a similar Democratic voter edge as old 46, while new 48, where the old house is, has a 454 registered voter Republican margin. (We'll visit 48 tomorrow.)

District 45 loses the Boone County townships, keeps Washington Township south of the city, and adds a couple townships to the east. Wessel-Kroeschell gains about 300 Democrats with the line changes.

Heddens went to the House in 2002 when the two Ames reps, Democrat Jane Greimann and Republican Barbara Finch, got paired and Finch ran for the Senate instead. Greimann retired in 2004 in poor health (she passed away in early 2006) and Wessel-Kroeschell won a four-way primary. Both have had relatively easy races since, sometimes with only Libertarian opponents. It looked like the GOP was taking a serious shot at Wessel-Kroeschell in 2010 with Karin Sevde, but BW-K won by 1000 votes.


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District of the Day: Senate District 22, House Districts 43 and 44

District of the Day: Senate District 22, House Districts 43 and 44

Senate District 22

Registration: D 11,450, R 14,839, N 12,804, total 39116, R+ 3389
Incumbent: Pat Ward, R-West Des Moines

Ward was elected in a hurry-up special during the 2004 session when Mary Kramer got a dream job: ambassador to a tropical island. Barbados, to be exact. Ward easily won a full term that fall and drew a bye in 2008 despite Democratic recruiting efforts.

So the first bad luck she's had was this map. She explains the district changes herself:

Unfortunately, my current Senate district was chopped in two on the new map. About 40 percent of the district remains in Senate District 21 and 60 percent of the district is in a newly created Senate District 22. The good news is that since a majority of the people I represent live in District 22, I plan to run for re-election in November 2012 in that district. The new district encompasses parts of West Des Moines, Clive, Windsor Heights and Waukee in both Polk and Dallas counties.

Ward was probably the first legislator in the state to announce her plans: March 31st, before noon. It's a smart move: the district she cedes to McCoy has a registration edge of more than 5000 Democrats. Her new home has a GOP edge of more than 3000, which is 2000 better than her old district.

Ward keeps Clive, Windsor Heights and a piece of West Des Moines (but not the piece with her house). The new territory goes west; see House 44 below.

But the rumor mill notes that former WHO radio host Steve Deace, who's been mumbling a bit about entering electoral politics since his last-minute bid for Polk County Republican chair, lives in just a couple blocks east of this district, in the Polk part of West Des Moines.

House District 43

Registration: D 7043, R 7696, N 5221, total 19971, R+ 653
Incumbent: Chris Hagenow, R-Windsor Heights

Lines stay similar: Windsor Heights, the Polk part of Clive, and part of northern West Des Moines. It's long and skinny but Clive's elongated boundaries kind of force that.

The area has had a few reps, all Republicans, in recent years. Gene Maddox, who made a Senate to House move in the 2002 map year when he got paired with Kramer, stepped down in 2006. Dan Clute won a single term in 2006, but didn't run in 2008 (anyone know what up with that?) Democrats scored a recruiting coup with Windsor Heights Mayor Jerry Sullivan, but Chris Hagenow and the party balance proved to be too much for a pickup in a good year. But barely - Hagenow won by just 91 votes. He had an easier time in 2010, with 58%. The reality is probably between those two margins.

Hagenow, 29, gains 200 Republicans, which could be useful in a tough cycle.

House District 44
Registration: D 4407, R 7143, N 7583, total 19145, R+ 2736

Like I said about Ankeny last week: Rural Republicans who got paired, this is where your district went. More than anyplace else in the state, this is truly a new district. As in, built since the last time we drew a map. Waukee grew from just over 5,000 people in the 2000 census to nearly 14,000 in 2010, and becomes the anchor of this seat, which also includes the Dallas County parts of Clive and West Des Moines. That was all in the old Ralph Watts district 47, which doubled in population. With no incumbents and few roots, this could see a multi-way GOP primary. July 29 UPDATE: First in is Dallas County GOP chair Rob Taylor.


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District of the Day: Senate District 21, House Districts 41 and 42

District of the Day: Senate District 21, House Districts 41 and 42

Senate District 21

Registration: D 17192, R 12056, N 10551, total 39887, D+ 5136
Incumbent: Matt McCoy, D-Des Moines

This Senate district shifts a house district to the west. Half is still in southwest Des Moines. The old district went east, into Bruce Hunter's solid Democratic south side area. But this time the mappers went westward into West Des Moines. This meant a two-senator pair with Democrat Matt McCoy and Republican Pat Ward, the only pair-up in Polk. It's polarized turf, split into a Democratic half and a Republican half. The Democratic side is more Democratic than the Republican side is Republican, and Ward immediately, on Map Day before the plan was even passed, announced that she'd move. More on that tomorrow.

McCoy sees a significant loss in his partisan edge, which drops by more than 4,500. But he had plenty to spare and is still on solid ground. McCoy holds over till 2014. He was re-elected easily in 2010 against a perennial candidate, abortion eliminationist Dave Leach.

House District 41

Registration: D 10532, R 4924, N 4731, total 20,240, D+ 5608
Incumbent: Jo Oldson, D-Des Moines

Oldson, 54, won a three way primary for this seat in the last remapping year, 2002. She won with 65% last year, which is about her usual margin.

The lines change little for Oldson, and increase her Democratic margin slightly. She cedes a little territory on the east to Hunter and has very clean boundaries on three sides: city limits, county line and Fleur. On the north the line stays close to University with just a little corner of Drake. She's the legislator most likely to get a presidential campaign visit in the district: the airport is in her lines.

House District 42

Registration: D 6660, R 7132, N 5820, total 19647, R+ 472
Incumbent: Peter Cownie, R-West Des Moines

Cownie was unopposed for the GOP nomination in 2008 when Libbie Jacobs retired. He beat Democrat Alan Koslow 55%-42% in the general, with a Libertarian pulling 3%. It was a two-way race in 2010. But Koslow dropped out late, too late to get off the ballot, saying it was impossible to compete with Cownie financially. He won 34% as a name on the ballot with a D after it.

The district stays pretty much the same: most of the Polk part of West Des Moines, with a similar chunk in the north lopped off and put into Chris Hagenow's Clive district. Interestingly, geographically more than politically, Cownie picks up the tiny northwest corner of Warren County. West Des Moines annexed across the Polk-Warren line during the decade; Cownie gets that and the metropolis of Cumming.

The old district had 200 more Republicans. Cownie has been cautious in this swingy suburban territory, as one of four house Republicans who declined to cosponsor the anti-marriage equality amendment (he voted for it in the end). That might help him in a general election but hurt him in a primary. Cownie, 31, may have higher ambitions, but as with many Polk County politicos he may have to wait in line.


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District of the Day: Senate District 20, House District 39 and 40

District of the Day: Senate District 20, House District 39 and 40

Senate District 20

Registration: D 12,185, R 15,553, N 11,554, total 39,344, R+ 3368
Incumbent: Brad Zaun, R-Urbandale

Poor Brad Zaun. He could be sitting in Congress right now: a top tier Republican candidate, who won a tough primary, against a vulnerable, aging Democrat in a great GOP year. But he had to go and drunk-dial his old girlfriend years ago. There were other personal issues, too, but that was the one that was easy to understand, and Leonard Boswell is never shy about letting voters know about his opponent's shortcomings.

So Zaun is back in Des Moines while Tom Latham swoops in from the north to block his Congressional ambitions. The only good news for Zaun is that at least he gets a better Senate seat. He loses a Democratic corner of Des Moines and instead adds Johnston and Grimes to his Urbandale base. It's a combination that makes more sense than the old hybrid urban-suburban seat, and it turns his 2,568 Republican registration deficit into a 3368 voter GOP edge, making this area a much, much better district for Zaun or whatever Republican may follow.

House District 39

Registration: D 5520, R 7903, N 6001, total 19451, R+ 2383
Incumbent: Erik Helland, R-Grimes

Republican Walt Tomenga got squeezed out of this seat in 2008 for being insufficiently conservative. Helland, seen as the conservative choice, stomped Tomenga's choice, Al Lorenzen, in the hot open seat primary. Helland won 61% in the general, which scared off 2010 rivals. He's had an interesting couple of years: off-mike comments that were in fact on mike, and a fellow Tim Pawlenty staffer roommate who got caught in some highly embarrassing drunken antics.

As Johnston doubles in population and becomes bigger than half a district, the turf shrinks radically. Helland used to have the whole northern half of the county except Ankeny. He loses everything east of the river and the Saylorville Reservoir - Alleman, Elkhart, Polk City - as the district becomes basically Johnston and Grimes. It also has Jefferson Township to the north and a small bit of Urbandale. The Republican registration edge drops by 1000 but the district is still strongly Republican.

House District 40

Registration: D 6665, R 7650, N 5553, total 19893, R+ 985
Incumbent: Scott Raecker, R-Urbandale January 20: Retiring.

Raecker, 49, was first elected in 1998. In 2000 Urbandale got put into one district rather than being split. Raecker got paired with fellow Republican Janet Metcalf, but she retired. Raecker won with 61% in 2008 and 65% in 2010. He's seen as a relative social moderate by Iowa Republican standards, but that tends to mean just voting for the right-wing bills and not co-sponsoring them.

The district loses a weird panhandle of Webster Township north of the Des Moines city limits, which my friend Jerry Mandering loved. It shrinks all the way into the Polk County part of Urbandale, which is now so big it has to be split between districts. The line changes cost Raecker about 200 registered Republicans but he still has an edge of nearly 1000.

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Trump burns Iowa GOP

Trump burns Iowa GOP

As of a couple hours after the announcement, the ad is still there, next to the story:



Earlier today the Iowa GOP was informed that Mr. Trump will not attend and keynote the June 10 Lincoln Dinner. Citing Mr. Trump’s unique appeal and the close proximity to the event, the Iowa GOP has decided to cancel the 2011 Lincoln Dinner.

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn issued the comment below following Mr. Trump’s decision to cancel his appearance at the Lincoln Dinner.

“In Iowa, your word is your bond. We are disappointed that Mr. Trump has chosen not to honor his commitment to Iowa Republicans.”

Dick move by the Donald. I can't see the week's other dropout, Mike Huckabee, doing the same thing.

Yet I can't help but laugh at the RPI's dilemma. If they'd have booked a legit candidate who had to cancel for a legit reason it would be one thing. But the RPI fully embraced Trump's ego-driven charade, right at the peak of his birther-driven hucksterism.

Then Barack Obama tore down the whole Trump facade in just one week: releasing the birth certificate at just the right moment to maximize the egg on Trump's face, with that teaser "I've got more important things to do." Then the smackdown at the White House Correspondent's dinner, where a visibly enraged Trump couldn't even get up and walk out. Then Obama and team, along with some brave SEALS, made it all seem trivial and irrelevant the very next day.

Conservablogger Mike Thayer at Coralville Courier:

Every reasonable person in the party knew very well this might happen and said so. Knowing Trump's history of spotlight and spurn is why so many party faithful questioned the wisdom of naming him the keynote speaker. This isn't a hindsight is 20/20 moment, this was called. A lot of folks cautioned against this both publicly and behind closed doors.

So don't feel sorry for the RPI. They made the wrong call, and they got what they deserved.

District of the Day: Senate District 19, House District 37 and 38

District of the Day: Senate District 19, House District 37 and 38



All you western Iowa rural Republicans who got paired? This is where your district went.

Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats and is 3/4 of a Senate seat.

Senate District 19

Registration: D 11993, R 14170, N 11765, total 37984, R+ 2177
Incumbent: Jack Whitver, R-Ankeny

To get back down to the right population, this Senate district sheds almost a whole House district worth of turf to the west, including Polk City, Johnston (which doubled over the decade) and Grimes. That's all basically Erik Helland's turf, as two House districts turn into three.

This had been Jeff Lamberti's home base until he left to challenge Leonard Boswell in 2006. Democrats recruited a perfect candidate, Ankeny mayor Merle Johnson, but he came up just short against Larry Noble. Noble won an uncontested race in 2010, then immediately stepped down to become Public Safety commissioner in the Branstad Administration.

In the hurry-up special in January, Republicans had a hard-fought convention, with six candidates and five ballots. Winner Whitver is an ex-Cyclone footballer and a Drake law student, who had lost a 2006 House race on about as different a turf as you can imagine, inner city Des Moines, to Ako Abdul-Samad. Whitver easily won the special 63%-37%. Just 30, he's definitely on the GOP rising star list, and he has almost a full term to work the shrunken district before he's up in `14.

House District 37

Registration: D 5692, R 8060, N 6191, total 19972, R+ 2368
No incumbent

House District 38

Registration: D 6301, R 6110, N 5574, total 18012, D+ 191
Incumbent: Kevin Koester, R-Ankeny

Since Ankeny is about a House seat and a half, it needs a little extra turf. New District 37 goes north to pick up Alleman and east to the Bondurant city line. New 38 goes south to the Des Moines city limits, and includes Saylorville.

Kevin Koester easily beat a primary opponent in 2008 when Republican Carmine Boal retired. He drew a competitive (54%-46%) challenge from Democrat Matt Pfaltzgraf. Koester drew a bye in 2010, while Pfaltzgraf was in Iowa City running the No on 21 Bars campaign that set student turnout records but fell short.

But since then Koester's luck has changed. He got burned in the 2011 special Senate nominating convention, won by Whitver. In a major slap in the face to a sitting House member, not only was he not nominated, he was the second of six candidates to be eliminated.

Koester also finds himself on the wrong side of the district line. He's in the south, in the Democratic leaning district, while 37, to the north, is the one with a solid GOP margin. A move in an area with such high growth would normally be OK, but Koester's rejection by party activists might see him vulnerable to a primary. Pfaltzgraf, meanwhile, could head back home.

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