Thursday, October 16, 2008

Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets are, after the final debate, giving Barack Obama a commanding lead.

Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at nearly 86 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 86 percent chance of winning. John McCain's shares are selling for just under 15 cents. Those levels have been steady for the past week. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 58 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 46.6 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

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