Saturday, November 01, 2008

Louisiana, Montana In Play

My Bold Prediction: Obama Takes Louisiana and Montana

Yes, I said Barack wins the Bayou and the Big Sky. No, I haven't fallen off the wagon. A WWL poll shows Louisiana at three points -- McCain 43, Obama 40.

But there's an extra factor, as Richard Winger at Ballot Access News notes: Ron Paul is on the ballot. The label is "Louisiana Taxpayers Party." Not to be confused with the old US Taxpayers Party, which is now the Constitution Party.

"Constitution for President" is the label over which Paul appears on the ballot in Montana. In this county (pdf) he's even first on the ballot. I've never bought the idea that ballot order makes a difference, but studies say it does. Anyway, Montana's popular governor Brian Schwitzer is on the ballot. The US Senate race is wacky: Republican nominee Bob Kelleher is an 85 year old ex-Green who has also run as a Democrat in some of his sixteen past races (lifetime record: 2-14 including the Republican primary win in a splintered six-way field) and whose main platform plank is switching the US to a parliamentary system.
Kelleher favors enormous, FDR-style government work programs to reduce poverty; he wants to nationalize the American oil and gas industries and supports government-run, socialized medicine.

Needless to say, he's not getting much support from the GOP regulars.

Combine the Paul, Schweitzer and Kelleher factors... and put Montana in play, too. The whole Canadian border could be blue except for Boundary County, Idaho where the militia movement used to hang out.

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