All those worries yesterday about the Big Lug's re-election prospects are tempered somewhat by this Iowa Republican poll:
Republican Primary Voters
Bob Vander Plaats: 46%
Don’t Know: 27%
Chris Rants: 14%
Paul McKinley: 3%
Christian Fong: 3%
Rod Roberts: 1%
Jerry Behn: 0.2%
(Republican Primary Voters N=394 - Margin of Error ±5.0%)
We won't even need my convention scenario; they're ready to nominate Vander Plaats outright. He's near 50% and the Not Vander Plaats vote is splintered. All Gay Marriage All The Time will turn off moderates and Culver wins comfortably.
If the GOP unites, quickly, behind one non-BVP candidate, that candidate might pull it off, but do they even want to?
A GOP They say they're polling general election races tomorrow, but my guess is they're push-polling those instead. Given IR's question wording I'm skeptical of anything beyong a Republican primary poll.