I'm slacking this morning but check back Sunday for reports from the Harkin Steak Fry featuring him, Al Franken. For now:
MMM's case (other than her admittedly interesting biography) was attacking Loebsack as a solid vote for Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic leadership -- as if that was a BAD thing in a Democratic district. She also had trouble keeping her own party united behind her, with anti-choice forces within the GOP sent out late attacks and fed the rumor mill.
Only thing I can think of is that Sabato just looked at the Loebsack percentage of just a hair under 60. The Green and independent candidates account for that; in Johnson County at least MMM's percentage almost exactly matched McCain's, and Loebsack trailed Obama by almost exactly the third party vote.
Looks to me like Sabato just threw every 2006 and 2008 upset winner (Space, Shea-Porter, Walz, etc.) on the "Likely" list. Like I was saying even BEFORE the 2006 election, the real fluke is that Jim Leach held the seat as long as he did.
Well into the 20th century, this was the state where black citizens observed the Fourth of July mostly alone. Why? Because--get this--the vast majority of whites preferred instead to celebrate Confederate Memorial Day, May 10, a practice that continued into the early 50s,