Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Conlin Way Ahead

Conlin Way Ahead

Public Policy Polling (pdf warning) also checked the Democratic Senate race and here's how it looks: Roxanne Conlin 48 percent, Bob Krause 13, Tom Fiegen 8.

Undecided is at 31 percent, but I'm guessing a lot of that stays home or crosses over; there's relatively little awareness that the Democrats are even having a primary. So recalibrate those percentages and assume the undecideds who DO vote split similarly, and you get 70-19-12.

It's bad news for both Krause and Fiegen, both because they're sooo far back and because (unlike the 46-31-13 split in the GOP governor's race) neither one emerges as the clear alternative to the frontrunner. So much for that inexplicable Register endorsement of Fiegen.

Put another way: to win, Fiegen or Krause has to get ALL the undecideds to vote, get ALL of them to vote for him, AND get ALL of the other guy's vote, and do all that with virtually NO money.

The poll that REALLY matters is the one that came out couple o' weeks back: Grassley 49, Conlin 40.

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