Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Football Favors Incumbents?

Go Hawks - I think

From the too dumb to make this up files:
The success of major college teams in the two weeks before an election can have a measurable impact on how well incumbent politicians do at the polls...
Well, more accurately there's a correlation. Much as Pastafarians blame global warming on the decline in pirates.
The researchers found that wins in the two weeks before an election boosted the vote share of incumbents in the county where a school is located by 1.05 to 1.47 percentage points - enough to make a difference in a close race.

And for teams they termed "powerhouses" the impact was even greater, giving the incumbents between 2.30 and 2.42 percentage points more than in years when the local team lost. Powerhouses were defined as teams that had won a national football championship since 1964, or were among the teams with average attendance of 70,000 or more from 1998 to 2008.
The Hawkeyes are just on the cusp of that powerhouse status, with Kinnick at a capacity of just over 70,000 and almost always full.

In any case, the Hawks have home games the last two Saturdays before this election. So incumbents Chet Culver and Dave Loebsack may be cheering loudly to boost that margin out of Johnson County, but challenger Roxanne Conlin is in a tough spot.

As for me, I was convinced that the Packers beating the Redskins in Washington was the key to sweep John Kerry to victory.

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