Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Last Minute Surprise Watch

With two days of filing left, the gaps in the candidate list stand out more than the names. I count only six seven legislative incumbents, all in the House, who haven't either filed or announced a retirement. Who's going to be our last second surprise? Or did we already get that with Jeff Kaufmann and Tom Rielly?

The one I'm watching is Warren County's House 26. There were rumors even in his first year that the incumbent, Republican freshman Glen Massie, might not run. His tea party ally, Kim Pearson, has already called it quits after one term. Two other Republicans have filed here. Democrat Scott Ourth probably would have won in any year other than 2010 and never really stopped running. So at this point it surprises me more if Massie DOES file tomorrow or Friday.

No one of either party has filed in Henry County based House 84. The incumbent, Republican Dave Heaton, is in his early 70s. I expect Heaton runs again, but this is the other one to keep an eye on.

The other four, I suspect, are all just being slowpokes: Rick Olson, D-Des Moines, House District 31; Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence, House District 64; Nick Wagner, R-Marion, House District 68; and Dawn Pettingill D R-Mt. Auburn, House District 75. UPDATE: one I missed on the first go round, Boone Republican Chip Baltimore in House 47.

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