Friday, August 17, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 6, Iowa House District 11 & 12

Senate District 6
Registration: D 10324, R 13414, N 15517, total 39281, R +3090
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring)

Could the Democrats win Steve King's old legislative seat? Here's another one where the Republican primary outcome gives Democrats an opportunity on less than ideal turf.
Adam Schweers had the backing of both Rod Roberts and Terry Branstad, but drew criticism for launching his Senate bid just weeks after taking office as Carroll's mayor. Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, running to the right of Schweers, prevailed in the primary 47-40%, A third candidate, Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede , was an afterthought at 13%.

Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll is a solid candidate with strong family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin.

The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford that the retiring Steve Kettering held for 10 years, after taking over from King in a special election. Tiny Audubon County is added.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Mark Segebart for Senate , Bruner For State Senate Bruner is ahead with $11,086.70 on hand. Segebart emptied the tanks to win the primary and has re-fueled  back up to $5,807.15 since -- but $5000 of that is a self-loan.

House District 11
Registration: D 4167, R 7026, N 6965, total 18162, R +2859
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, unopposed

Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010. In the new map he gains about 500 Republicans, in some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Worthan for Iowa House

House District 12
Registration: D 6157, R 6388, N 8552, total 21119, R +231
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning

Muhlbauer was the only good news Democrats got in 2010. Republicans nominated an extremely weak candidate when nice guy Rod Roberts stepped down in a quixotic bid for governor. The moderate Muhlbauer was a good fit for the district and scored one of the few Democratic gains anywhere in the country.

Muhlbauer cast some overly cautious votes on choice and marriage, and is one of just two Democrats in contested races (the other is Helen Miller of Ft. Dodge) to win the endorsement of the Iowa Business and Industry PAC. That would indicate that his opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, isn't a high priority.

The line changes turned a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge; the Senate primary flipped it back to plurality R, but it's nevertheless a little better than the old seat. Carroll County still dominates the district.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Muhlbauer for State Representative, Bornhoft for Iowa House Muhlbauer has $9,226.56 on hand; Bornhoft, just $366.

Senate District 6, House District 11 & 12: District of the Day 1 - 5/02/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

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