District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 39, Iowa House District 77 & 78

Senate District 39
Registration: D 11922, R 12525, N 13523, total 37991, R +603
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota; holdover seat

Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map, but at least she gets two extra years to get to know a new district that's half in the People's Republic of Johnson County.

After a two year hiatus, Greiner knocked off Democrat Becky Schmitz in 2010 in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.

Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. but the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that.

House District 77
Registration: D 6865, R 4986, N 7105, total 18966, D +1879
No incumbent

High growth North Liberty and Tiffin anchor a new, all Johnson County seat. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills.

Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.

Steve Sherman of North Liberty is a Christian author. He also hosted a house party for Rick Santorum back before the caucuses, and GOP base hero Matt Schultz is coming in for an event this month.. He's the first Republican to file for an all-Johnson seat since the 2003 Dave Jacoby special election.

The biggest excitement in this race could be the aftermath. Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and a win would mean a mid-term vacancy on the Board of Supervisors.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Sherman In The House, Stutsman for State House Stutsman has $8,302.62 cash on hand;  Sherman has $1,250.66.

House District 78
Registration: D 5057, R 7539, N 6418, total 19025, R +2482
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota, unopposed

Just two years ago, Democrats held this seat; now they don't even have a candidate.

When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.

The new lines help Klein, even though the party balance doesn't change much. This is still the Washington County seat, though a bit gets carved out.  Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and the whole part of Johnson, and gets he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County. With that he got a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef, who waited till early November to announce retirement.

Klein easily dismissed primary challenger Priscilla Marlar, 82-18%.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Klein for Statehouse

Senate District 39, House District 77 & 78: District of the Day 1 - 6/16/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/17/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 39, Iowa House District 77 & 78

Senate District 39
Registration: D 13047, R 12826, N 15368, total 41270, D +221
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota; holdover seat

Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.

Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.

Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. but the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100. Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.

Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and holds over till 2014.

Campaign finance reports: Citizens to Elect Greiner

House District 77
Registration: D 7545, R 5458, N 7982, total 21000, D +2087
No incumbent

High growth North Liberty anchors a new, all Johnson County seat which covers the whole west and south border of the People's Republic. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. The various pieces used to belong mostly to Dave Jacoby, Nate Willems, and Jarad Klein.

Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.

The biggest excitement in this race may be the aftermath. Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the Board of Supervisors mid-term if elected to the House.

Steve Sherman of North Liberty is a Christian author who's also done a few guest editorials that reveal an... interesting rhetorical style. He also hosted a house party for Rick Santorum back before the caucuses. He's the first Republican to file for an all-Johnson seat since the 2003 Dave Jacoby special election.

Campaign finance reports: Stutsman for State House

House District 78
Registration: D 5502, R 7368, N 7386, total 20270, R +1866
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota (Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer, retiring) Primary challenge

When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.

The new lines help Klein, even though the party balance doesn't change much: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef, who waited till early November to announce retirement.

Klein still gets a primary, though: church administrator Priscilla Marlar of rural Washington filed. She appears to be the daughter of Rick Marlar, who ran a tea party-ish primary against Sandra Greiner in 2010.

No Democratic names have emerged; didn't we HAVE this seat two years ago?


Campaign finance reports: Klein for Statehouse

Original post 6/16/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Sherman running in House 77

Some Dude: Some candidates start out with certain built-in advantages: They already hold office, they have personal wealth, or they have a prominent public profile. Some Dude has none of these. If you Google Some Dude's name, you'll find very little information-probably just the news article or blog post where they were first mentioned as a possible candidate. A good hint you're dealing with a Some Dude is that they're described as an "activist" or "Tea Party member" in press accounts. Note: Some Dudes sometimes win! -- Glossary, Swing State Project (now Daily Kos Elections)

Steve Sherman of North Liberty looks pretty close to the profile. A tweet from a fellow Johnson County GOP activist pointed to a Facebook page about his candidacy in House District 77.

The Googling shows that he's a Christian author who's also done a few guest editorials that reveal an... interesting rhetorical style. He also hosted a house party for Rick Santorum back before the caucuses. The next Google search will probably include this post, so hey. The Deeth Blog, your free advertising source for Republican candidates.

Contrast that profile with the Democrat: five term county supervisor Sally Stutsman. Or even with former Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips, who said in August that House Republicans were trying to recruit him. (That effort seemed to fizzle, then Phillips lost his re-election bid in November.)

Still, it's the first time the GOP has run a candidate -- or rather, the first time a GOP candidate has run, since I'm sensing self-starter here -- in an all-Johnson seat since the 2003 Dave Jacoby special election. This is a new all-Johnson seat with a Democratic advantage of a couple thousand voters. The various pieces used to belong mostly to Jacoby, Nate Willems, and Jarad Klein. On the Senate side, it's half of Sandy Greiner's new seat, which oughta be way fun for her in 2014.

North Liberty anchors 77, which covers the whole west and south border of Johnson. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills.

Take no offense; I was a Some Dude when I ran. And every race should be taken seriously; Brian Moore sitting in the legislature is proof enough of that.

Phillips Considering House 77?

Royce Phillips Considering House 77 run?

Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips tells his Facebook friends he "is getting requests to run for the Iowa Statehouse in a new open district." That would be a GOP bid in House 77, where Democratic county supervisor Sally Stutsman has already announced.

"Now I am getting calls from state representatives to do it," Phillips added.

Phillips knocked off a long time incumbent in 2007 to win the non-partisan mayor's post. Before that, he had lost a school board bid. Stutsman has won five straight terms as a county-wide supervisor but lost a legislative bid on very different turf in 2000.

The new turf, which mostly belonged to Democrats Dave Jacoby and Nate Willems and Republican Jarad Klein last map, wraps around the west end of Johnson County, from Shueyville to Lone Tree. Tiffin is the district's second largest city and doubled in population to just under 2000 last decade. High-growth North Liberty is about 40% of the district, which has a Democratic registration edge of 2500.

District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

Senate District 39

Registration: D 12899, R 11970, N 14104, total 39008, D + 929
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota

Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.

Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.

Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. But the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100.  Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.

Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and gets three years to try to win over those new Johnson County constituents. Or at least to vote in the Senate.

House District 77

Registration: D 7401, R 4856, N 7276, total 19552, D+ 2545
No incumbent

An open, strong Democratic district in Johnson County is a rarity rivaling a transit of Venus. As it turns out, we have both next year, and the twice in 112 years transit even occurs on primary election day.

And like a transit of Venus, an open Johnson County seat is more notable for its rarity than for its drama. Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.

North Liberty anchors the new seat which covers the whole west and south border of Johnson. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. That's Stutsman's historic base, but the family farm is outside the city proper.

Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the board mid-term if elected. So the big excitement may not be the House race itself but its ripple effect through local courthouse politics.

House District 78

Registration: D 5498, R 7114, N 6828, total 19456, R + 1616
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota and Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer

UPDATE November 4: De Boef retiring.

Washington County has seen three House winners in three elections, and now anchors a district with two representatives.

When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.

The new lines help Klein in one sense: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Granted, south and west rural Johnson ain't downtown Iowa City, but Hills is so Democratic even I won it. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef.

Klein has multiple advantages in this pair. There's geography: about two thirds of this was his in the old map and he has strong ties to Keokuk County as well. He's also younger and has stronger party ties, especially to Greiner.

DeBoef, meanwhile, is on the leadership outs, and is one of the few senior members who doesn't chair a committee. Of late she's been aligning with the Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie, Alons and Shaw. She carpetbagged into Keokuk County in the first place; her original base when she won her first term in 2000 was in Rose Hill, across the line in Mahaska. In 2001 she got paired up with Danny Carroll in a Mahaska-Poweshiek seat, and when she moved to Keokuk County she had to fend off a couple primary opponents.

Assuming Klein runs here, he's got about the same partisan balance he had before; DeBoef's old seat was a bit closer but Democrats never made much effort against her. A self-starting Some College Dude college student won 34% in 2010.

Since I keep flinging that term around, some explanation. Its origins are at the blog Swing State Project, which was annexced recently and became Daily Kos Elections.

Some candidates start out with certain built-in advantages: They already hold office, they have personal wealth, or they have a prominent public profile. Some Dude has none of these. If you Google Some Dude's name, you'll find very little information-probably just the news article or blog post where they were first mentioned as a possible candidate. A good hint you're dealing with a Some Dude is that they're described as an "activist" or "Tea Party member" in press accounts. Note: Some Dudes sometimes win!

The one thing we know for sure: DeBoef says she won't oppose Klein in a primary. There's an open district just to the west, House 80, that includes her original home in Rose Hill. But it's swingy and Democrats already have a strong candidate (more tomorrow). There's also other nearby Republicans in pairs. Frankly, retirement may be her best option.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Stutsman Announces in House 77

Stutsman Announces in House 77

It was hinted last week, now official:

Johnson County Supervisor Sally Stutsman has announced plans to run for the Iowa House in an open district in the western part of the county.

The 2011 redistricting process created a new district, House 77, that includes the area where Stutsman has lived since 1969.

As strong a candidate as Democrats could hope for, in a district with a 2500 voter Democratic registration edge.

The district is entirely in Johnson, our fourth complete district. It's anchored by North Liberty and Tiffin, which grew so big they had to be pulled out of Dave Jacoby's Coralville district. It's also got Swisher, Shueyville, Oxford, Tiffin, Frytown, and Lone Tree, but wraps around the city of Hills. Most of those were pulled out of Nate Willems and Jarad Klein's seats, that used to go into Johnson but no longer do. One township comes out of Jeff Kaufmann's district.

Last year Stutsman was the first supervisor to be elected to a fifth term since terms went to four years in the 1970s. She tried for the House once before, in a much tougher district that went into Louisa and Muscatine, in 2000. (She did way better than the Some Dude who ran four years earlier.)