Senate District 15
Registration: D 14151, R 12395, N 11873, total 38449, D +1756
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat
Black
holds over till 2014 in a half Jasper, half Polk seat that changes
little. This is one of the two Senate districts that's split between
congressional districts, because 4 congressional districts equals 25
House districts and 12 1/2 Senate seats. Newton-based House 29 is in the
2nd CD and Altoona-centric House 30 is in the 3rd.
House District 29
Registration: D 7742, R 5545, N 5962, total 19261, D +2197
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton
Kelley
stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won
his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie,
who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes.
Swersie
is making his third try this year, but doesn't look like a high
priority despite the close race last time. Changes in the lines net
Kelley about 1000 more Democrats. That and a term under his belt should
help in 2012.
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Swersie Campaign Fund, Dan Kelley for State Representative
Kelley raised $2,280.00 after the primary but spent more, $3,136.76,
leaving $268 in the bank. Swersie has $1,502.44 on hand, but has only
raised 50 bucks since the primary.
House District 30
Registration: D 6409, R 6850, N 5911, total 19188, R +441
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring
Well, that was interesting. Kim Pearson may be leaving the Legislature, but I'm sure she'll be around one way or another.
Republican
chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement
after one wild and wooly term, and by the changes around the edge of
the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County,
losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant
and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of
Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a the
Democratic leaning district long held by conservaDem Geri Huser into a
swing seat. It's number 53 most Democratic, so it's one of the key seats
for House control.
Jim Carley, founder of the tea-partyish Save Our American Republic (SOAR)
announced well before Pearson made her retirement official, but it
almost immediately became clear that she had recruited her own
successor. Carley overwhelmed Carol Miller in the primary, 73-27%.
But Democrats have a solid contender in Joe Riding,
an Altoona city council member who got in before Pearson got out.
Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf
course, not a bad fit for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family
in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt
would say, they're not the right height.)
July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Citizens for Joe Riding 2012, Carley for Iowa Riding started raising early and has $10,759.50 on hand. Carley has $981.58 on hand and $1000 in loans out, so, nothing.
Senate District 15, House District 29 & 30: District of the Day 1 - 5/13/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012
The worst.
Showing posts with label Jim Carley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Carley. Show all posts
Friday, August 17, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 15, Iowa House District 29 & 30
Senate District 15
Registration: D 15712, R 13370, N 13494, total 42611, D +2342
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat
Dennis Black's turf has consistently shifted west along I-80 over his three decades in office. He was first elected to the House in 1982 from a district in Poweshiek and western Iowa counties. Black moved from the House to the Senate in 1994 from a Poweshiek and Jasper district. Then in the 2000s his seat, now clearly Newton-based, moved out of Poweshiek entirely and went west to Altoona and eastern Polk. At this pace, the seat should be all the way into Polk by 2030 and reach Dallas County by 2050 or 2060. By the end of the century Black will be paired up with Mike Gronstal. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're both still in the Senate.
This decade's change is less dramatic. We'll let the senator do it himself:
Black will hold over till 2014 under these lines. The small shifts barely change the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Dennis Black for State Senate
House District 29
Registration: D 8970, R 6287, N 7327, total 22598, D +2683
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton
Kelley stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie, who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes. Swersie is making his third try this year.
Kelley's district stays pretty much the same geographically. Instead of the southeast corner of Jasper, he'll have the southwest corner. He keeps Newton and everything north to the county line. The changes gain him 1000 more Democratic voters. That and a term under his belt should help in 2012.
The Swersie Campaign Fund had $1687 on hand on January 19, all leftover from 2010. Dan Kelley for State Representative has been more active, raising $8455 during the year, spending $6325, and had $2684 on hand.
House District 30
Registration: D 6742, R 7083, N 6167, total 20013, R +341
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring; contested Republican primary
So long, Kim Pearson. It's been quite a term. In an epic Register profile she hinted that the compromises of legislative politics were not for her and that she might make it a short career, and in early January she made it official.
It also looks like the anti-choice iconoclast recruited her own successor. Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) announced well before Pearson made her retirement official. He seems more worried about the socialist menace than about Pearson's pet cause, fetuses. (Pearson's greatest claim to fame, historically, will be that she scuttled House GOP efforts to restrict abortion by holding out and insisting on a Roe-Wade challenging total abortion ban.)
Carol Miller of rural Ankeny is also in on the Republican side, and possibly more moderate, as she showed up at a bipartisan training for women candidates back in January.
Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, got in on the Democratic side before Pearson got out. Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad match for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt would say, they're not the right height.)
Riding starts with a big financial edge; Citizens for Joe Riding had $5290 in the bank on the January 19 campaign finance report, to Carley for Iowa's $520. Miller announced later and had not yet opened a committee.
The Altoona-based seat had been held by conservaDem Geri Huser for seven terms. By 2008 she was at the point where she drew a primary challenge from labor but no Republican opponent; pretty much sums it up. In 2010 she was the token Democratic endorsement for several conservative groups, and an independent entered the race to run against, as he said, "two Republican candidates." As an unknown name on the ballot with an R after it, Pearson prevailed by 126 votes with just 48.5% of the vote.
Republican chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement and the changes around the edge of the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County, losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a Democratic leaning district into a swing seat.
Original post 5/13/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 15712, R 13370, N 13494, total 42611, D +2342
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat
Dennis Black's turf has consistently shifted west along I-80 over his three decades in office. He was first elected to the House in 1982 from a district in Poweshiek and western Iowa counties. Black moved from the House to the Senate in 1994 from a Poweshiek and Jasper district. Then in the 2000s his seat, now clearly Newton-based, moved out of Poweshiek entirely and went west to Altoona and eastern Polk. At this pace, the seat should be all the way into Polk by 2030 and reach Dallas County by 2050 or 2060. By the end of the century Black will be paired up with Mike Gronstal. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're both still in the Senate.
This decade's change is less dramatic. We'll let the senator do it himself:
As for (old) Senate District 21, which I now represent, it would be changed by eliminating Lynn Grove, Elk Creek and Palo Alto townships from the new District 15, and adding three rural townships north and west of Mitchellville, all in Polk County. Folks living south of the Newton city limits in Palo Alto would see a new Senate District 14 that would combine with five other counties, and stretch all the way to the Missouri border. By the way the crow flies, that district would be 125 miles long.
I live in Richland Township, north of Lynnville. Thus, I would continue to represent Newton, Baxter, Prairie City, Colfax, Lambs Grove and the eastern one-third of Polk County.Fun factoid: This is one of the two Senate districts that's split between congressional districts, because 4 congressional districts equals 25 House districts and 12 1/2 Senate seats. Dan Kelley's Jasper-based House 29 is in the 2nd CD and House 30 is in the 3rd.
Black will hold over till 2014 under these lines. The small shifts barely change the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Dennis Black for State Senate
House District 29
Registration: D 8970, R 6287, N 7327, total 22598, D +2683
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton
Kelley stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie, who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes. Swersie is making his third try this year.
Kelley's district stays pretty much the same geographically. Instead of the southeast corner of Jasper, he'll have the southwest corner. He keeps Newton and everything north to the county line. The changes gain him 1000 more Democratic voters. That and a term under his belt should help in 2012.
The Swersie Campaign Fund had $1687 on hand on January 19, all leftover from 2010. Dan Kelley for State Representative has been more active, raising $8455 during the year, spending $6325, and had $2684 on hand.
House District 30
Registration: D 6742, R 7083, N 6167, total 20013, R +341
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring; contested Republican primary
So long, Kim Pearson. It's been quite a term. In an epic Register profile she hinted that the compromises of legislative politics were not for her and that she might make it a short career, and in early January she made it official.
It also looks like the anti-choice iconoclast recruited her own successor. Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) announced well before Pearson made her retirement official. He seems more worried about the socialist menace than about Pearson's pet cause, fetuses. (Pearson's greatest claim to fame, historically, will be that she scuttled House GOP efforts to restrict abortion by holding out and insisting on a Roe-Wade challenging total abortion ban.)
Carol Miller of rural Ankeny is also in on the Republican side, and possibly more moderate, as she showed up at a bipartisan training for women candidates back in January.
Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, got in on the Democratic side before Pearson got out. Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad match for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt would say, they're not the right height.)
Riding starts with a big financial edge; Citizens for Joe Riding had $5290 in the bank on the January 19 campaign finance report, to Carley for Iowa's $520. Miller announced later and had not yet opened a committee.
The Altoona-based seat had been held by conservaDem Geri Huser for seven terms. By 2008 she was at the point where she drew a primary challenge from labor but no Republican opponent; pretty much sums it up. In 2010 she was the token Democratic endorsement for several conservative groups, and an independent entered the race to run against, as he said, "two Republican candidates." As an unknown name on the ballot with an R after it, Pearson prevailed by 126 votes with just 48.5% of the vote.
Republican chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement and the changes around the edge of the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County, losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a Democratic leaning district into a swing seat.
Original post 5/13/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Thursday, January 05, 2012
Back to the District of the Day Routine
We turned into a pumpkin at midnight -- well, 1:20 AM to be exact -- Tuesday/Wednesday, so with the national press off to New Hampshire it's time for us locals to get back to the routine local stuff of non-presidential politics. And for me that's legislative races.
The big, though not entirely shocking, news is that Kim Pearson is bailing on the legislature after just one term. The rumor mill had long been saying she was considering it. There had even been reports that's she'd recruited her own primary challenger, tea partyish Jim Carley.
Pearson upset conservaDem Geri Huser in 2010 with under 50 percent of the vote in a three way race, and that was as an unknown with an R after her name in a really good GOP year. She won few friends among her leadership to put it mildly, and derailed an anti-choice bill because it wasn't a pure total abortion ban.
Pearson's retirement may actually improve GOP chances in the new version of Altoona-based House District 30, even though the margin gets slightly more Republican. I'd expect other Republican(s) to jump in. Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, is already in on the Democratic side.
Bleeding Heartland speculates Pearson may be forming a new anti-choice group; my bet is, now that she has even less to lose, she focuses on recruiting primary opponents for impure House Republicans and further monkeywrenching the whole legislative process.
In Ottumwa, Republican Blake Smith announced for House District 81 against Democrat Mary Gaskill.
Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight in this District Draws Itself turf (Ottumwa is 82% of a House district) for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.
In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. Republicans looked like they were making a serious 2010 effort with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win. Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for the fluke 2010 election of Senator Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue.
And in really dull news, Republican Randy Feenstra announces for a second term in Sioux County dominated Senate District 2. The lines shuffle a bit but it's still the most Republican seat in the state.
Old Senate District 2 was the scene of an epic primary in 2004 as relative moderate Dave Mulder knocked off the state's leading queer-baiter of the era, Ken Veenstra. Mulder stepped down after one term, semi-voluntarily (another epic primary was likely), and Feenstra moved from the county courthouse to the Senate with no opponent in either the primary OR the general. That's likely again this time, which I guess is good; one less race to boost Republican turnout.
Pearson upset conservaDem Geri Huser in 2010 with under 50 percent of the vote in a three way race, and that was as an unknown with an R after her name in a really good GOP year. She won few friends among her leadership to put it mildly, and derailed an anti-choice bill because it wasn't a pure total abortion ban.
Pearson's retirement may actually improve GOP chances in the new version of Altoona-based House District 30, even though the margin gets slightly more Republican. I'd expect other Republican(s) to jump in. Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, is already in on the Democratic side.
Bleeding Heartland speculates Pearson may be forming a new anti-choice group; my bet is, now that she has even less to lose, she focuses on recruiting primary opponents for impure House Republicans and further monkeywrenching the whole legislative process.
Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight in this District Draws Itself turf (Ottumwa is 82% of a House district) for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.
In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. Republicans looked like they were making a serious 2010 effort with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win. Ottumwa trended Republican the last two cycles with Mariannette Miller-Meeks on the ballot, Republican enough for the fluke 2010 election of Senator Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren. But with MMM not running, I expect Wapello County to trend blue.
Old Senate District 2 was the scene of an epic primary in 2004 as relative moderate Dave Mulder knocked off the state's leading queer-baiter of the era, Ken Veenstra. Mulder stepped down after one term, semi-voluntarily (another epic primary was likely), and Feenstra moved from the county courthouse to the Senate with no opponent in either the primary OR the general. That's likely again this time, which I guess is good; one less race to boost Republican turnout.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Kim Pearson Gets Primary Challenge from...
...well, it's really hard to tell what direction, in the overall multi-dimensional universe of the far right.
Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) is challenging House freshman Kim Pearson (R-Pleasant Hill), the stand-alone hard liner who calls herself a tea partier first and a Republican second, in Altoona-based House District 30.
It's clearly not a moderate challenge, as both candidates serve slightly different flavors of tea. The SOAR site seems more worried about Socialism, rather than Pearson's first session focus on fetuses.
My gut check is that Carley, despite his self-description as an "activist" and "organizer," is a self-starter. A Some Dude. (Of course, Pearson was also a Some Dude - the term isn't gender specific - and she won.) The Carley announcement doesn't take on or even mention the incumbent. It seems more like "I want to run, this is where I live."
The upshot might be an opportunity for a moderate to jump in and split the difference. Or Pearson, who's won few friends among her leadership to put it mildly, might just decide she's had enough and quit after one term, as fellow Crazy Caucus member Glen Massie has hinted he might.
Joe Riding, moderate-ish Altoona city council member, is already in on the Democratic side. The district as revised is actually a little more Republican than the old turf, where Pearson upset conservaDem Geri Huser last year with under 50 percent of the vote in a three way race.
Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) is challenging House freshman Kim Pearson (R-Pleasant Hill), the stand-alone hard liner who calls herself a tea partier first and a Republican second, in Altoona-based House District 30.
It's clearly not a moderate challenge, as both candidates serve slightly different flavors of tea. The SOAR site seems more worried about Socialism, rather than Pearson's first session focus on fetuses.
“Our rights and our liberties are vanishing at an alarming rate,” Carley said. “What has always been wrong is now somehow right, and what has always been right is now somehow wrong. We must right our compass and advance in the appropriate direction.”I'm having trouble grasping the rationale for a hard-right challenge to the hard-rightest House member (well, Tom Shaw gives Pearson a run for her money).
My gut check is that Carley, despite his self-description as an "activist" and "organizer," is a self-starter. A Some Dude. (Of course, Pearson was also a Some Dude - the term isn't gender specific - and she won.) The Carley announcement doesn't take on or even mention the incumbent. It seems more like "I want to run, this is where I live."
The upshot might be an opportunity for a moderate to jump in and split the difference. Or Pearson, who's won few friends among her leadership to put it mildly, might just decide she's had enough and quit after one term, as fellow Crazy Caucus member Glen Massie has hinted he might.
Joe Riding, moderate-ish Altoona city council member, is already in on the Democratic side. The district as revised is actually a little more Republican than the old turf, where Pearson upset conservaDem Geri Huser last year with under 50 percent of the vote in a three way race.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)