Meaningless Swing and a rare change
It's extremely unusual for a Northern Ireland seat to switch from Unionist to Republican, but SDLP just picked up South Belfast. DUP left UUP alone in 2001 here, but this time the Protestant vote split almost evenly. SDLP wins with 32%; add SF's 9 and it's still only 41% Republican vs. 51% Unionist.
The BBC has the swing as "13.4% from SDLP to DUP" which makes no sense at all; it's hard to imagine individual voters switching from Republican to Unionist, and how do you swing FROM the winner TO a party that didn't contest the seat last time?
UK Election
The worst.
Friday, May 06, 2005
Election Night: Day 2
Election Night: Day 2
Gerry Adams holds West belfast for Sinn Fein. Swing 4% from SDLP to SF and 4% from moderate protestant UUP to hardline DUP. Doesn't tell us much, this is the strongest Sinn Fein seat and everyone expected the hardline parties to gain from the moderates.
I don't officially know why the Northern Ireland results are announced the next day unlike the rest of the country. But I assume, in a country where people march through the other community's neighborhood to celebrate kicking their butts in 300 year old battles, it's to keep people from killing each other in election night "celebrations."
In any event, this is a completely different ball game than the rest of the UK. The big question is will DUP knock off UUP leader David Trimble.
UK Election
Gerry Adams holds West belfast for Sinn Fein. Swing 4% from SDLP to SF and 4% from moderate protestant UUP to hardline DUP. Doesn't tell us much, this is the strongest Sinn Fein seat and everyone expected the hardline parties to gain from the moderates.
I don't officially know why the Northern Ireland results are announced the next day unlike the rest of the country. But I assume, in a country where people march through the other community's neighborhood to celebrate kicking their butts in 300 year old battles, it's to keep people from killing each other in election night "celebrations."
In any event, this is a completely different ball game than the rest of the UK. The big question is will DUP knock off UUP leader David Trimble.
UK Election
British Blur
British Blur
Random first impressions before I start tainting my brain with anyone else's analysis.
My blogging got interrupted last night first by a meeting then by CSPAN's decision to leave the BBC at 9 PM (3 AM UK time). I was able to get the BBC feed on line but the poor three year old laptop was bleeding from the strain of streaming video and half a dozen open tabs.
A near-perfect result from my point of view. Labour is zinged, and the zinging was explicitly about the war. It would only take about 30 or 35 back bench defections for Blair to lose a confidence vote, and that puts him under some pressure even if he commands majority support within the Labour MPs. (I don't know how a leadership challenge works in Labour.)
I would have rather seen the Lib Dems benefit a little more, it was a perfect storm for thee. Yet they find themselves in their strongest position since Labour became a major party.
And I'm surprised by Howard's announcement that he's standing down. He may have suffered an electoral defeat, but it was at least a moral victory, similar to Kinnock in `87. I suppose that when you look a little closer, the Tories didn't really GAIN so much as Labour LOST, and they just barely failed to break the 200 seat mark.
The really interesting math of a three-party plus system is that Labour can win an outright majority with only 36% of the vote. Makes Clinton's 43% in 1992 look massive... of course the UK is really a four way election when the regional parties are factored in.
In the end I think this is a transitional result, much like 1992 was. Much will depend on when Blair steps down and how much time before the 2009/10 election Gordon Brown (presumably) will have to put his stamp on the party. Brown could emerge as a John Major, consolidating Labour's gains temporarily. Or he could be James Callaghan, an interim leader hanging on and delaying the inevitable. In any case I don't think this result allows Blair to hang on four or five more years.
The first test is in a month, with an oddball by-election. The Lib Dem candidate in one seat died, and the way the Brits do things they postpone the election if the candidate dies, even if it's the Loony candidate.
UK Election
Random first impressions before I start tainting my brain with anyone else's analysis.
My blogging got interrupted last night first by a meeting then by CSPAN's decision to leave the BBC at 9 PM (3 AM UK time). I was able to get the BBC feed on line but the poor three year old laptop was bleeding from the strain of streaming video and half a dozen open tabs.
A near-perfect result from my point of view. Labour is zinged, and the zinging was explicitly about the war. It would only take about 30 or 35 back bench defections for Blair to lose a confidence vote, and that puts him under some pressure even if he commands majority support within the Labour MPs. (I don't know how a leadership challenge works in Labour.)
I would have rather seen the Lib Dems benefit a little more, it was a perfect storm for thee. Yet they find themselves in their strongest position since Labour became a major party.
And I'm surprised by Howard's announcement that he's standing down. He may have suffered an electoral defeat, but it was at least a moral victory, similar to Kinnock in `87. I suppose that when you look a little closer, the Tories didn't really GAIN so much as Labour LOST, and they just barely failed to break the 200 seat mark.
The really interesting math of a three-party plus system is that Labour can win an outright majority with only 36% of the vote. Makes Clinton's 43% in 1992 look massive... of course the UK is really a four way election when the regional parties are factored in.
In the end I think this is a transitional result, much like 1992 was. Much will depend on when Blair steps down and how much time before the 2009/10 election Gordon Brown (presumably) will have to put his stamp on the party. Brown could emerge as a John Major, consolidating Labour's gains temporarily. Or he could be James Callaghan, an interim leader hanging on and delaying the inevitable. In any case I don't think this result allows Blair to hang on four or five more years.
The first test is in a month, with an oddball by-election. The Lib Dem candidate in one seat died, and the way the Brits do things they postpone the election if the candidate dies, even if it's the Loony candidate.
UK Election
Thursday, May 05, 2005
BBC NEWS | Election 2005 | Election Map
BBC NEWS | Election 2005 | Election Map
11:50: One difference between UK and USA election returns is the hyperactivity of results: In the US we have the luxury of time zones and some staggering of poll closings, so the results trickle in from 6 PM (Iowa time) till the wee hours. All lpolls in the UK close at the same time, 10 PM. And there are no preliminary results by precinct or county. There's just one result: the final. So the results come in not in a cross country steady sweep but in a rapidly ramping up bell curve, peaking at 2 or 3 AM. That may contribute to Peter Snow's hyperactivity...
11:50: One difference between UK and USA election returns is the hyperactivity of results: In the US we have the luxury of time zones and some staggering of poll closings, so the results trickle in from 6 PM (Iowa time) till the wee hours. All lpolls in the UK close at the same time, 10 PM. And there are no preliminary results by precinct or county. There's just one result: the final. So the results come in not in a cross country steady sweep but in a rapidly ramping up bell curve, peaking at 2 or 3 AM. That may contribute to Peter Snow's hyperactivity...
Peter Snow the King of Swing
Peter Snow the King of Swing
11:07 UK Time: Peter Snow is thehyperactive, graphically enhanced, BBC numbers guy and I want to be him.
11:07 UK Time: Peter Snow is thehyperactive, graphically enhanced, BBC numbers guy and I want to be him.
Ultimate guide to today's election
Ultimate guide to today's election
Slow loading pdf with an, uh, interesting angle on the prospects:
UK Election
Slow loading pdf with an, uh, interesting angle on the prospects:
UK Election
Pentagon Analyst Charged With Disclosing Military Secrets
Pentagon Analyst Charged With Disclosing Military Secrets
Do you think this guy will get zinged as bad for spying for Israel as he would have if he'd been spying for Osama? And how's this going to play in the Arab world? Can't help. If we were REALLY worried about national security we'd worry more about stuff like this and less about harassing airline passengers.
Politics
Federal agents arrested a Pentagon analyst on Wednesday, accusing him of illegally disclosing highly classified information about possible attacks on American forces in Iraq to two employees of a pro-Israel lobbying group.
The analyst, Lawrence A. Franklin, turned himself in to the authorities on Wednesday morning in a case that has stirred unusually anxious debate in influential political circles in the capital even though it has focused on a midlevel Pentagon employee.
The inquiry has cast a cloud over the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which employed the two men who are said to have received the classified information from Mr. Franklin. The group, also known as Aipac, has close ties to senior policymakers in the Bush administration, among them Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is expected to appear later this month at the group's annual meeting...
Do you think this guy will get zinged as bad for spying for Israel as he would have if he'd been spying for Osama? And how's this going to play in the Arab world? Can't help. If we were REALLY worried about national security we'd worry more about stuff like this and less about harassing airline passengers.
Politics
UK goes to polls with Labour set for win
UK goes to polls with Labour set for win
You would think, if you knew the Prime Freakin' Minister was going to be voting there and the picture would be all over Britain, you would have gotten the building PAINTED.
I still haven't figured out which party is Sensible and which one is Silly.
UK Election
You would think, if you knew the Prime Freakin' Minister was going to be voting there and the picture would be all over Britain, you would have gotten the building PAINTED.
I still haven't figured out which party is Sensible and which one is Silly.
UK Election
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Marijuana Becomes Focus of Drug War
Marijuana Becomes Focus of Drug War
"In reality, the war on drugs as pursued in the 1990s was to a large degree a war on marijuana," said Ryan S. King, the study's co-author and a research associate at the Sentencing Project. "Marijuana is the most widely used illegal substance, but that doesn't explain this level of growth over time. . . . The question is, is this really where we want to be spending all our money?"
Politics
"In reality, the war on drugs as pursued in the 1990s was to a large degree a war on marijuana," said Ryan S. King, the study's co-author and a research associate at the Sentencing Project. "Marijuana is the most widely used illegal substance, but that doesn't explain this level of growth over time. . . . The question is, is this really where we want to be spending all our money?"
Politics
Judge to Lombardo: No deal
Judge to Lombardo: No deal
I think the correct phrase is "fuhgeddaboudit":
Mafia
I think the correct phrase is "fuhgeddaboudit":
A letter purportedly penned by Joey "the Clown" Lombardo says the reputed mob boss would turn himself in if certain conditions were met--an offer swiftly rejected by a federal judge...
Mafia
Blair set for third landslide as campaign wraps up
Blair set for third landslide as campaign wraps up
Wo. The race is for second place and the Lib Dems could actually top the Tories.
The Guardian offers aprint-out-and-keep guide to election night; subtract six hours to convert UK time to Iowegian. Should make for an interesting evening - we Colonists can check out the proceedings on C-SPAN. Hear, hear.
UK Election
The final ITV News/Times tracker poll, published this morning, gave the Tories 27 per cent support, by far the lowest of the campaign. Labour was unchanged on 41 per cent, while the resurgent Liberal Democrats were up two point at 23.
Although that kind of support would see Labour's 2001 majority of 160 seats reduced, Mr Blair would still win an historic third successive term, possibly with a three-figure majority.
Wo. The race is for second place and the Lib Dems could actually top the Tories.
The Guardian offers aprint-out-and-keep guide to election night; subtract six hours to convert UK time to Iowegian. Should make for an interesting evening - we Colonists can check out the proceedings on C-SPAN. Hear, hear.
UK Election
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Architect Urges Boycott of Prison Construction
Architect Urges Boycott of Prison Construction
"It's great that the people who are designing these prisons feel that they shouldn't be built," said Braz, one of several prison reform advocates whom Sperry consulted. "Because you know, if they build them, somebody will fill them."
Politics
"It's great that the people who are designing these prisons feel that they shouldn't be built," said Braz, one of several prison reform advocates whom Sperry consulted. "Because you know, if they build them, somebody will fill them."
Politics
Bill Would Add House Seats
Bill Would Add House Seats
Interesting tradeoff:
DC statehood = one additional Democratic seat. A fourth Utah seat = one additional GOP seat. Will it fly? Depends on the Senate provision. If it's two senators for DC, then no way...
UPDATE seems the bill addresses only the House NOT the Senate.
Politics
Interesting tradeoff:
Davis' legislation "would temporarily expand the chamber to 437 seats, providing the District with full-fledged House representation while also adding a fourth district in Utah, which fell short of receiving a new seat after the 2000 reapportionment."
DC statehood = one additional Democratic seat. A fourth Utah seat = one additional GOP seat. Will it fly? Depends on the Senate provision. If it's two senators for DC, then no way...
UPDATE seems the bill addresses only the House NOT the Senate.
Politics
Garbage's hometown love fest
Garbage's hometown love fest
The local coverage. They have the Clash thing with the opening act, too. No pics unfortunately.
Music
The local coverage. They have the Clash thing with the opening act, too. No pics unfortunately.
Music
Monday, May 02, 2005
The marginal election battle
The marginal election battle
The BBC runs down the swing seats, while the Guardian looks at moderate Protestant leader David Trimble's seat in Northern Ireland, likely to fall to the more hard-line DUP.
UK Election
The BBC runs down the swing seats, while the Guardian looks at moderate Protestant leader David Trimble's seat in Northern Ireland, likely to fall to the more hard-line DUP.
UK Election
I'm only happy when it... snows?
I'm only happy when it... snows?
Shirley's shirt indicates there may be hope for me yet, as does her comment that only female Garbage fans seem interested... and no, I'm not afraid of tall redheads.
But this is supposed to be a musical review and not a drooling groupie mash note, and one of the tricks I learned from my brother is you get the best sound next to the sound board. So that was the spot, and there was a very young girl parked behind it next to the sound guy. Aside: It's not bad going to a rock concert and not being the OLDEST or BALDEST person there (and I'm not even counting the band in this case). Aside 2: You know you're back home in Wisconsin when it's May Day and it's SNOWING.
The opening act, the Dead 60s, had a sort of 80sish rock-ska-reggae thing going on like they'd found their older brother's copy of London Calling. If I were younger I'd probably work in a Sublime reference, but I'm not so I won't.
They played 8 or 10 songs and kept us Garbage folks entertained.
Then the main attraction hit the stage to the tune of Johnny Cash's version of Trent Reznor's "Hurt."
I can't really analyze the performance too much - my first time seeing one of my favorite bands. They were loud, I loved it, Shirley has a, uh, strong stage presence, and there was a neat hometown vibe to it. Here's a rough set list:
First four songs: Queer, Bad Boyfriend, Stupid Girl, Supervixen
Then some chitchatting with the audience, at which point we learned taht the little girl behind the board was Steve's five year old daughter.
Somewhere in mid set I lost track of the order but we heard: Sex Is Not The Enemy (with lots of text flying by Zooropa style on video screens), Vow, I Think I'm Paranoid, When I Grow Up, Push It, Bleed Like Me, Hammering In My Head, and I'm Only Happy When It Rains. We were supposed to sing along the "pour some misery down on me" part but I couldn't quite tell if we did or not. We also heart Shirley and Duke sing Happy Birthday to a band friend named Craig - you got the feeling that there were a lot of people there who had known the guys at least 20 years.
The main set ended with Why Do You Love Me and we all did the cheer for an encore ritual. The encore set started with Metal Heart, which surprised me a little as a choice from the new album. Then they did Cherry Lips which I expected because the techs had soundchecked the chimes part on Duke's keyboard - but by that point in the show I was wondering if they had disowned the entire beautifulgarbage album. The closer was Right Between The Eyes. Shirley left the stage when the vocal finished while the hometown boys soaked up the last cheers, ending with a very happy looking Butch Vig alone on stage waving to lots and lots of old friends.
The noise that keeps me awake managed to ring in my ears long enough to keep me awake and get me back to Iowa City way past my normal bedtime. Today is recuperation day...
Music
Shirley's shirt indicates there may be hope for me yet, as does her comment that only female Garbage fans seem interested... and no, I'm not afraid of tall redheads.
But this is supposed to be a musical review and not a drooling groupie mash note, and one of the tricks I learned from my brother is you get the best sound next to the sound board. So that was the spot, and there was a very young girl parked behind it next to the sound guy. Aside: It's not bad going to a rock concert and not being the OLDEST or BALDEST person there (and I'm not even counting the band in this case). Aside 2: You know you're back home in Wisconsin when it's May Day and it's SNOWING.
The opening act, the Dead 60s, had a sort of 80sish rock-ska-reggae thing going on like they'd found their older brother's copy of London Calling. If I were younger I'd probably work in a Sublime reference, but I'm not so I won't.
They played 8 or 10 songs and kept us Garbage folks entertained.
Then the main attraction hit the stage to the tune of Johnny Cash's version of Trent Reznor's "Hurt."
I can't really analyze the performance too much - my first time seeing one of my favorite bands. They were loud, I loved it, Shirley has a, uh, strong stage presence, and there was a neat hometown vibe to it. Here's a rough set list:
First four songs: Queer, Bad Boyfriend, Stupid Girl, Supervixen
Then some chitchatting with the audience, at which point we learned taht the little girl behind the board was Steve's five year old daughter.
Somewhere in mid set I lost track of the order but we heard: Sex Is Not The Enemy (with lots of text flying by Zooropa style on video screens), Vow, I Think I'm Paranoid, When I Grow Up, Push It, Bleed Like Me, Hammering In My Head, and I'm Only Happy When It Rains. We were supposed to sing along the "pour some misery down on me" part but I couldn't quite tell if we did or not. We also heart Shirley and Duke sing Happy Birthday to a band friend named Craig - you got the feeling that there were a lot of people there who had known the guys at least 20 years.
The main set ended with Why Do You Love Me and we all did the cheer for an encore ritual. The encore set started with Metal Heart, which surprised me a little as a choice from the new album. Then they did Cherry Lips which I expected because the techs had soundchecked the chimes part on Duke's keyboard - but by that point in the show I was wondering if they had disowned the entire beautifulgarbage album. The closer was Right Between The Eyes. Shirley left the stage when the vocal finished while the hometown boys soaked up the last cheers, ending with a very happy looking Butch Vig alone on stage waving to lots and lots of old friends.
The noise that keeps me awake managed to ring in my ears long enough to keep me awake and get me back to Iowa City way past my normal bedtime. Today is recuperation day...
Music
The whip cracks for Leach
The whip cracks for Leach
One more strike against our so called "pro choice" congressman. From Karen Kubby at Emma Goldman:
Politics
One more strike against our so called "pro choice" congressman. From Karen Kubby at Emma Goldman:
You know that bill at the Federal level that we asked you to lobby Leach to vote against (Child Interstate Abortion Notificatin Act --CIANA)? It was the one where if minors received any assistance to cross a state line to receive abortion care, she would may have to comply with both state parental involvement laws AND there would be some Federal notification and delay attached to her health care. Well, Leach voted FOR the bill. Please contact him to let him know of your disappointment in his vote.
mailto:talk2jim@mail.house.gov
Politics
All about the numbers anymore
All about the numbers anymore
Tactical voting is the only issue left:
UK Election
Tactical voting is the only issue left:
"The study found that a swing of 11.5 per cent from Labour voters to the Liberal Democrats could deprive Mr Blair of his overall Commons majority but it would be virtually impossible for such defections - at even twice that rate - to let in the Conservatives to form a government."
UK Election
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